Article: The Roster and Payroll Impacts of Cody Bellinger Re-Signing With The Cubs

[Josh Illes]

In true Cubs fashion, they have signed a fan favorite at the last minute. Eight years ago it was Dexter Fowler that signed on February 25th to much fanfare and applause from both players and fans at the outset of Spring Training. This year, it’s Cody Bellinger who gets to receive a grand re-welcoming, hopefully with the same results of that season. 

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Passan confirmed late Saturday evening that the Cubs and Cody Bellinger agreed on a three-year, $80 Million deal with multiple opt-outs. Bellinger will receive opt-outs after each of the deal's first two years. 

It is quite a coup for a front office notorious for soliciting short-term deals even though the market around them has been embracing long-term deals for most of the high-end free agents. You would have to assume that the long-term deals for Bellinger never materialized, much to the chagrin of Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras. Given that Bellinger had only shown one year of above-average statistical output after two years of far below-average production, I’m not sure why the Bellinger camp would have expected much more than they received. However, one can hardly blame them for asking for more, considering that Bellinger was an elite player at one point in his career, winning the National League MVP in 2019. The simple answer is probably that recency bias matters to a certain degree, and every team with money to spend has had to factor in those two unproductive years. Bellinger’s value to the Cubs, though, considering what he provided to them in 2023, most likely mattered more than his value to other teams. 

What does this mean for this Cubs team? Let’s look at it from a few different points of view.

First Base
Michael Busch has been tabbed as the most likely player to open the season as the starting first baseman. It should be noted that he has not played in the first two Spring Training games for the Cubs, though. Now, that could be a circumstance; it could be a very mild injury, or it could be that the team is trying to tell us something about Busch being not ready. That last part is pure speculation, but in light of the Bellinger signing, it is something to consider. Bellinger was as good as it gets as a first baseman for the Cubs in 2023, and reinserting him into that position for 2024 would make a lot of sense. That said, first base is not Bellinger’s preferred position…

Center Field
Bellinger’s preferred position is center field. He has won a Gold Glove as an outfielder and has expressed a preference to play there. He may get his wish, as his likely replacements are either very young (Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario) or journeymen (Mike Tauchman). For me, this is where the contract terms come into play. Suppose the Cubs had signed Bellinger to the seven-year deal that some expected. In that case, I think they would have been compelled to play him in center field because, at that point, you are talking about a franchise player demanding to play at his preferred position, and nobody would have batted an eye at that happening. This deal, though, is not a franchise-level deal. It does not require the team to appease the player and play him where he wants. That is not to say that Bellinger cannot play center field. He’s a great center fielder! But it does mean that the Cubs are free to play PCA in center field (something that I think should be done regardless) without worry of an albatross contract standing in the way of that plan.

Designated Hitter
This is the part you want to pay attention to if you are a fan of Michael Busch, Patrick Wisdom, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nick Madrigal, or Alexander Canario. Bellinger’s signing is going to affect one of those players. 

Before the signing, it seemed almost inevitable that Canario and Tauchman would get a shot at playing time on the big league team as a fourth outfielder; at the very least, if Bellinger ends up mainly playing center field, that would eliminate a spot for one of them.

If Bellinger plays first base, it would eliminate a utility infield spot that could be rostered by either Wisdom or Madrigal. It’s hard to see a scenario where both of them are rostered if Bellinger is the everyday first baseman and Christopher Morel is playing third base. The argument in their favor would be that Morel may end up somewhere other than third base, but I believe that Morel has all the tools to stick there, and Craig Counsell is determined to keep him there, which means that Morel is the starting third baseman for this team.

Bottom Line
Bellinger opted out of $25 million and ended up with $30 million. It was a win for him and the Cubs. He could make more than that if his 2023 results are accurate, but the team does not have to pay for future value that is strictly hypothetical. Meanwhile, the Cubs are still $7 million under the luxury tax and can use that money to sign another free agent now or wait until the trade deadline to reassess their needs. His addition solidifies the Cubs as absolute contenders in 2024.

View full article

[Guest234]

Belli is back! Pun intended.

[Matty ice]

Strong days ahead! #signing #lastminute2winit

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!