Article: Carl Edwards Jr. Comes Back as a Whole Different Pitcher

[Matthew Trueblood]

The most familiar of the Cubs' non-roster invitees in the bullpen is, paradoxically, not at all the pitcher you remember. He's still essentially himself, but an incredible number of things have changed.

Image courtesy of © Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

You remember Carl Edwards Jr. as the guy with the high-riding mid-90s fastball and the sizzling overhand curveball. That version of him--the guy who had a strikeout rate north of 33 percent from 2015-18, who also limited hard contact, and whose only weaknesses were occasional wildness and a slight shortfall in durability--is gone for good. Now, after a perambulation of professional baseball that has taken him through five other big-league teams and the Triple-A affiliates of all five, he's back, but only part of the fastball and curveball came with him. If he's going to win a place in the Cubs bullpen, he'll need to do it with the new tricks he's added to his bag.

Though he did it before the term reached the level of popularity and wide comprehension it now enjoys, Edwards was one of the great modern practitioners of the cut-ride fastball. His four-seamer was occasionally called a cutter, especially on broadcasts, even though its vertical movement would have made it an outlier in that category as much as its lack of arm-side run makes it so among four-seam heaters. Working from the middle to the first-base side of the rubber, Edwards hammered away at hitters with that fastball and his big hook, which could surpass 3,000 rpm in spin rate and snapped nastily off the high plane of his heat when he was controlling it well. Just about everything he threw seemed to move to his glove side, away from fellow righties in the box.

I've decided to use 2017 as a reference season, because it was Edwards's most complete and best in a Cubs uniform. Here's what his pitch movement looked like at that time.

The movement differential on those pitches made them impossible to hit. The only challenge was to throw them with command on any kind of consistent basis, and eventually, it did prove to be a challenge he wasn't up to. With his impossibly slender frame and all the humping up and whipping involved in his delivery back then, he just couldn't repeat his delivery well enough to execute either of his primary pitches consistently. Nor, over time, could he hold up and sustain the intensity of that stuff, in terms of either velocity or spin. He fizzled badly for the Cubs in late 2018 and in 2019, and it took a while for him to find a foothold after they set him adrift in the middle of that season.

Here's what Edwards's arsenal looked like in 2017, from behind the plate. Again, everything was targeted to one side of the plate, and he basically aimed high with the fastball and low with the curve, with varying levels of success. It was just that simple, approach-wise, though.

Edwards would finish his fastball pretty far out in front of the rubber, despite that very over-the-top delivery, because he left his long legs carry him reasonably far down the mound. On the curve, though, he would make a more conscious effort to stay back and wrap his hand around the ball through release, so his release point was higher, with less extension toward the plate.

It's no headline story when a reliever with two impressive pitches buckles under the weight of his unimpressive control and a body not built for the gig. This is only a story because, improbably, Edwards sank into the sands of time, then came back up, a much less dominant but more varied hurler with a new angle and a viable skill set. He pitched 94 innings with the Nationals over the last two seasons, with a 3.07 ERA. The strikeout rate is way down, and he still issues too many walks, but Edwards is a usable reliever again. He was only available on a minor-league deal because of the injuries that limited that innings total so much.

How has he done it? Let's revisit each of the charts we examined above for 2017, but update them to 2023. Here is how Edwards's pitches each moved last year.

Hey, we've got a new member in the club! That purple blob way off to the last of where the blue and red of the fastball and curve sit in their same stark contrast is a new changeup, which Edwards forged during the years he spent scrapping just to remain in affiliated baseball. The guy who so naturally spins the bejesus out of the ball that his fastball sometimes hummed into a cutter by accident still gets that kind of movement on the fastball, and the curve has a slight glove-side flare to it, but he figured out how to pronate and get a changeup to fade well off the line of that heater.

Opponents had a .188 average and zero extra-base hits against Edwards's changeup in 2023. They whiffed on over 32 percent of their swings against it. He had tons of success with the offering, one that would have felt completely foreign in his arsenal a few years before. He also found more consistent success with the fastball and curve, though, and it wasn't because of an element of surprise. Rather, as you can see above, he slightly improved his command of both ptiches, and all three came to set one another up better than they had in the past. 

The latter thing happened because Edwards also moved across the rubber. He now pitches from the third-base side, where he can aim his glove-side offerings at the outer half to a righty and keep them on the plate better if he misses slightly. The change also steepens the horizontal angle he creates for opposing hitters. In fact, last year, only the Astros' Phil Maton had a higher Horizontal Approach Angle Above Average than Edwards's on a four-seamer. That's why, even as he's lost 1.5 miles per hour on everything and a couple inches of ride on the fastball, Edwards still limits hard contact well. 

Nothing about his primary location targets for the two old pitches has changed much. Edwards has just used that move on the rubber to create more dramatic angles with it, and the changeup (along with that slide; he couldn't have thrown an effective version of this change from the side of the mound he used to stand on) to pitch away from left-handed batters.

He'll always count as thin, but Edwards has inevitably filled out a little, and between that and a bit less of the loose, extraordinary arm speed he used to have, he's found an ability to repeat his delivery better. Maybe moving along the rubber has done so, too; it helps him align and lock into certain cues in the rotation of his body and the twisting of the kinetic chain all the way through release. He's getting more extension and has ratcheted his release point even higher.

Health will be a massive variable for Edwards this spring. Don't write him into the bullpen in anything but light pencil, just yet. If he does show the ability to bear up under a big-league workload again, though, Edwards has a better chance than many might have assumed to crack the roster. Lefties hammered him last year, but righties had a .484 OPS against him, the best mark of his career. He's evolved and survived, altered what he throws and how and from where, and the numbers say he's found a new, successful formula. 

Where do you slot Edwards as a candidate for one of the few ostensibly available spots in the Cubs' relief corps? Are you excited to have him back this season, for either real or purely nostalgic reasons? Weigh in below.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

This was a really interesting read, Carl is a personal favorite going all the way back to the Garza trade.  I wonder if the Cubs plan to tweak the arsenal further, maybe add him to the pile of guys trying a splitter to bring back some swing and miss and potentially help against LHH?

 

[Bertz]

I would be very reticent to count on a guy becoming a FIP beater off of 90 innings, though adding a tumbling changeup would certainly be a way to make that happen.

I think for me it's about the velo.  In '22 Carl was a shade under 95 MPH and even if you give him zero credit for soft contact he had the peripherals of a worthwhile middle reliever.  Last year he was under 94 MPH and of course ended the season on the IL with a shoulder injury.  If he is healthy and can get back that MPH he lost between '22 and '23 I'd be happy to give him first crack at a spot in the pen.  If not he's emergency depth that needs to get comfortable in Iowa IMO.

[CubinNY]

I wonder if they have deal to release him after ST is over if he doesn’t make the team. This seems like one of those situations where he trying to get healthy and it costs the Cubs nothing to let him hangout for six weeks