Article: The 368 Foot View: Minor League Pitching Depth and Major League Win Totals

[Josh Illes]

Time to take a step back and look forward. Time to look things up so we can drill down. Time to take a 30,000-foot view of the situation. On second thought… that’s too far. Let’s scale it back to a more friendly level and get a 368-foot view of what is happening this week in Cubs baseball.

About two weeks shy of the report date for pitchers and catchers, the Cubs are rounding out their roster of camp invitees and backups to their backups. Everyone else is, too, and thus, we can start to see how the league is projected to shake out in the coming season.

A Champion and a Trio of 28-Year-Olds
The Cubs announced the signings of four pitchers to minor-league deals over the last four days, three of whom are 28 years of age. The other is forever etched in Cubs history. In some order:

Carl Edwards Jr.
An old friend has returned, and he brings with him a 2016 World Series ring and an invite to spring training. Edwards appeared in 32 games for Washington last season, sporting a 3.69 ERA and a lofty 1.516 WHIP. The 32-year-old right-hander struck out 24 batters while walking 17 in his second season with the Nationals. He last pitched for the Cubs in 2019, and struggled to mimic the success he had in his Chicago tenure until the Nationals picked him up prior to the 2022 season. That year, he threw 62 innings with a 2.76 ERA.

Blake Weiman
An 8th-round pick of the Pirates in 2017, the left-handed Weiman has had a modicum of success at the lower levels of the minor leagues over his five years of professional baseball, but his success has hit massive roadblocks at the Triple A level. He’s been training at Driveline this offseason, though, and the Cubs must have seen something they liked, because they snagged him following his pro day at Driveline on Friday.

Sam McWilliams
A 2014 Phillies 8th-rounder out of high school in Tennessee, this righty came up through the Phillies and Rays organizations, progressing up to Triple A before the pandemic non-season of 2020 halted his development. He bounced around the minors in 2021 and 2022, before retiring briefly following the latter season. Since then, he has mounted a comeback in the Mexican League, and in the Dominican Winter League, where Cubs scouts saw him and decided they wanted to see more.

Richard Lovelady
A southpaw, Lovelady was originally selected in the 10th round of the 2016 draft, by Kansas City. Unlike Weiman and McWilliams, Lovelady has pitched in the majors. The Royals called him up in 2019 and he appeared in 46 games for them over the course of the next three seasons, totaling 40 strikeouts over 41.2 innings pitched while tallying a 5.62 ERA. During the 2021 season, he blew out his elbow and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. In 2023, his comeback with Oakland was cut short after 27 appearances when he suffered a pronator strain in his forearm. Like Weiman, he turned to Driveline this offseason to work out and ultimately showcase his skills to pro scouts. The Cubs bit on the two-for-one Driveline special and snagged both of them.

Obviously, the team also signed Héctor Neris to a contract with the big league club this past week. So the bullpen is definitely getting the attention it sorely deserved. Time will tell if any of these minor-league signings will bear fruit, but if even one of them contributes to the Cubs' major-league bullpen this year, it would be a huge coup for the Cubs scouting department. We like to talk about bullpen depth in terms of what we can see on the 26-man roster, or the 40-man, or even in terms of high-level prospect depth, but often seasons are won and lost based on the lottery card guys teams sign in December or January, from whom nobody expects anything. Think Trevor Cahill in 2016, for instance.

Jed Hoyer recently said that the Cubs embrace a small-market mentality. In some cases, that is very true. They avoid signing players to long-term contracts if possible. They have shown a penchant for trading away their star players before they reach free agency. They have a renewed focus, since the departure of Theo Epstein, on developing homegrown pitchers. They put an emphasis on having a farm system full of blue-chip prospects.

Signing multiple relief pitchers to minor-league contracts in the hopes that one of them hits is yet another example of this approach. This is the plan, folks. Build from within. Build from a place of depth. Learn from past mistakes. Last season, the bullpen went from a major strength in July to a major weakness in September. Why? Not enough depth. Not enough arms that David Ross could actually trust in high-leverage situations, of which there were many. It’s possible that the Cubs were caught flat-footed from a bullpen depth standpoint because they just didn’t expect to contend, and therefore didn’t envision almost every game for the last three months of the season being a high-leverage game. Hopefully, what we are seeing now is a sign that 2024 will be different. They will be set up for success, if not because of these four signings then simply because of a renewed mindset to be better prepared for the long season.

DraftKings Win Totals and Other Futures
Betting sites have begun unveiling props, futures, and odds for the 2024 season. I decided to look at DraftKings to see if there were any interesting takeaways, and I was pleasantly surprised at what I found. 

The Cubs have the 11th-best odds to win the World Series. The Dodgers are the clear favorite in the category, but the Cubs are much closer to the top than the bottom, sliding in just behind the Twins, Mariners, and Blue Jays, and just ahead of the Cardinals.

The Cubs' win total is set at 84.5. I probably don’t need to tell you this, but the Cubs won only 83 games last season, so having the over/under set at a higher number than last season’s actual win total (even without Cody Bellinger currently on the team) seems like a good sign. By the way, the Cardinals' win total is also set at 84.5, so it could be one of those years.

Speaking of that, the Cubs are at +180 to win the National League Central, just ahead of those wretched Cardinals, who come in at +200. The rest of the division is as follows:

• Reds +390
• Brewers +500
• Pirates +2000

Three Cubs are in the top 10 in Rookie of the Year odds. Shota Imanaga, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Michael Busch are all considered legitimate candidates. So, for those of us who really want to see what Craig Counsell can do with young players adjusting to the major leagues, it looks like we should get that chance.

This is not an endorsement of placing any wagers on any of these props. Although… There are some sites out there that aren’t as optimistic on the Cubs chances this year, if you are inclined to find a better value.

Do you agree with the notion that the Cubs will win the Central this year? And what do you make of the flurry of bullpen signings as of late? Let me know in the comments.

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[CubinNY]

Petition to forever change the name to Dick Lovelady because, giggles.