Article: What Should the Cubs Expect from Hector Neris?

[Jason Ross]

On Saturday morning, the Cubs agreed to terms with Hector Neris, formerly of the Houston Astros. Expected to help bolster the back end of the Cubs bullpen, what should you expect out of the fiery right hander in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Hector Neris has been a staple of MLB bullpens for quite some time now. Coming up with the Phillies and, most recently, a member of the Houston Astros (even helping them win the 2022 World Series), Neris has racked up nearly 550 appearances in his career. A high strikeout - and sometimes higher walk - reliever, Neris can be deployed in an eighth-inning role or the closer's role if needed. His history with being a closer and his strikeout tendency are significant reasons for his addition by the Cubs. With that said, a deeper dive into Hector Neris' 2023 season does show a few cracks in the armor and a few ways to fix them.

One of the cracks in that armor is that Neris is currently seeing a decline in his velocity. With his average fastball velocity sliding to around 93mph, the Astros' leverage reliever finished in the bottom 32% of all pitchers in average fastball velocity. This is down from prior years, where his fastball sat in the mid-94-mph range; just last season, his fastball was in the top half in terms of velocity. The good news is that this didn't hurt his overall strikeout numbers, as his K% was still over 28%, but fastball velocity decline can signal aging issues, and Neris is set to turn 35 soon.

In 2023, Neris had some luck, as well. Despite limiting hard contact well over his career, Hector's career BABIP against sits around .280, perfectly normal for most pitchers. Last year, however, his BABIP against was just .219, a likely unsustainable and unrepeatable number. Also, the big-bodied pitcher stranded 90% of the runners he allowed on base (and Neris does walk a hitter or two over the average). This was good for the third-best strand rate in the league and is a statistic that varies from year to year. Despite the sparkling sub 2.00 ERA, he had an FIP of 3.83 and an xFIP in the mid-4s. Along with the velocity drop, it's easy to see where regression would occur if these numbers held stable.

So what can the Cubs do? First, his pitch mix can be altered a little bit. For a pitcher losing velocity on his fastball, Neris has seen his fastball usage spike since moving to Houston, from just 36.8% of the time in 2021 with the Phillies to over 51.7% of the time last year. This has seen a 12% decline in the usage of his split-finger fastball, resulting in him going from a ground ball pitcher to an extreme fly ball pitcher. With the Cubs defense and the declining velocity on the fastball, I expect Neris will be encouraged to feature his split-finger more.

Speaking of the split-finger fastball, it's a good pitch, and I'm not entirely sure why he didn't feature it more. His split-finger fastball was his most-whiffed pitch in the zone and his most-chased pitch out of the zone in 2023. It shouldn't be surprising, then, to note that it had the lowest wOBA Against and the second-lowest xWOBA Against only to his slider (which he rarely throws to begin with). 

What's interesting is to notice how Neris' in-zone miss rates have changed over those two years, likely due to the decline in the fastball. Interestingly enough, his pitch map looks nearly identical between 2021 and 2023. But where he's getting those misses has changed dramatically. Below, on the left, you'll see his 2021 season, and in 2023, on the right. Neris got far more swings and misses at the top of the zone, probably due to an overuse of the fastball and the decline of the velocity on that pitch.

He is not getting the swing and miss at the top of the strike zone like he was. The logical conclusion should be to utilize the best chase pitch you have, the split-finger and lower that heat map to the bottom of the zone and out of the zone. Below, you'll see his Chase Rate in 2023. Notice where the chases are? They're low. That's the splitter.

Finally, we can see how this played out on the hit charts. Again, using 2021 (left) and 2023 (right), we can see how many more ground balls Neris got between the two seasons, something which dried up for him.

If it's not clear by now, the Cubs will likely look to get the 2021 version of the reliever instead of the the 2023 version. The 2021 version threw his best pitch a lot more and used the infield more. Again, that is a strength for the Cubs. The 2023 version had some good luck to get to the ERA he had. And even though the 2023 version had two runs less on his ERA, the 2021 version had the better xFIP by nearly an entire run. The Cubs cannot rely on his LOB% and BABIP to continue at the 2023 levels. It is unlikely that his velocity will return to 2021 levels when he was averaging 1.5 mph more on the pitch, but the Cubs can squeeze a little more juice out of the pitch. And none of this should suggest he shouldn't continue to strike people out: Neris' K% in 2021 was in the 91st percentile of all of baseball. We can't expect that high of a K% at his age, but because he's using the infield a bit more, it shouldn't mean he's skipping the swing and miss potential. 

Overall, this is a solid signing and an arm that should allow him to remain a high-leverage reliever. His age, fastball velocity, and luck statistics can show that some issues are forming, but on a one, and possibly two-year deal, the Cubs avoid potential long-term issues. With a pitch mix tweak, the Cubs should get a reliever who can be a lock-down-eighth-inning type for the contract's length, barring some unforeseen occurrence. The Cubs grabbed a good reliever on a better deal.

What do you think of the Cubs signing of Hector Neris? Do you think it's a good move for the backend of the bullpen? Do you think the Cubs should continue to add or do you think they're done? Let us know in the comment section below!

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