Article: A Little After-Christmas Clarity About Jed Hoyer's Mindset

[Matthew Trueblood]

The MLB offseason has gotten moving over the last fortnight, including a couple of substantial moves over the holiday. At last, we're seeing the market for free agents and trade candidates gain the clarity that can only come from a seemingly endless sea of options turning into an ever-narrowing river.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The good news is that, with pitchers and catchers reporting in just seven weeks, teams have finally been forced to get serious and start making their commitments for 2024. In the past week, in addition to the Dodgers' blockbuster signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, we've seen Mitch Garver land with the Seattle Mariners and both Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa sign up with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Padres signed Japanese closer Yuki Matsui, and catchers Tom Murphy (Giants) and Martin Maldonado (White Sox) each found new homes.

The bad news, of course, is that the Cubs didn't sign any of those players. Fifty days after making a huge commitment to Craig Counsell, they find themselves as the only team in baseball not to have made an external addition to their 40-man roster so far this winter. As the team missed on guys like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Yamamoto, it was relatively easy to explain away frustrations, because the likelihood of them landing any of those extremely high-priced, sought-after players was always low. Even if it felt like they could or should have tried harder, they probably wouldn't have ended up with any of those three, even if Jed Hoyer and company had pulled out all the stops. There were also some moves (like the Dodgers' trade for Tyler Glasnow, or the Cardinals' passel of veteran starting pitching signings) that didn't spark any real jealousy, because those players or deals would not have been good fits for the Cubs.

You can't say that for the Garver deal, which puts him in Seattle for just $24 million over two years. Ditto for the very affordable five-year deal Matsui signed with the Padres--even if a five-year pact feels strangely bold for a lefty closer with some yellow flags around him as he transitions from NPB to MLB. It's a slow, steady thrum of movement, and maybe no individual transaction means the Cubs have missed their chance to make material improvements, but it's like the age-old paradox of the heap: at some point, perhaps without realizing it, we will realize that the team passed a critical point at which their options became too limited and they could no longer find their way to a successful offseason.

Both Garver and Andrew McCutchen (who recently re-signed with the Pirates) were decent prospective fits with the Cubs, who need a more reliable bat at designated hitter. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. could have been an even better one, and signed an affordable deal to stay with the Diamondbacks. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha (each newly-minted Royals), Jack Flaherty (a Tiger), Nick Martinez (of the Reds), Sonny Gray (Cardinals), and Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks) all were various levels of interesting as rotation help, and taking them (in addition to Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Glasnow) off the list of potential targets does significantly affect the Cubs' ability to project the needed improvements to that unit.

When I pass along the fun facts that have circulated about the team's non-spending this winter, it's partially tongue-in-cheek. The Cubs will make additions to their roster, and the timing of them really isn't as important as some make it out to be. I don't believe in signing free agents of real substance in the latter part of January, except in very special circumstances, because signings like those nearly always betray a lack of real conviction on the part of the team or a dissatisfaction with the market on the part of the player, and that usually augurs ill for the deal's outcomes. But there's a sliver of December and a full fortnight of January between now and the second half of January, and I expect the team to move before then. In one sense, fans are getting far too worked up over the sequence of events this winter.

In another sense, though, there's something real fueling that anxiety, and it's worth discussing in frank terms. The thing is, Cubs fans (like almost all fans, and like almost all people, in their various ways and at various times) expect a lasting transformation this winter. They don't feel satisfied with their team, but they expect that to change, and not just incrementally or over a long period. They anticipate a shift so large as to constitute metamorphosis, and soon--a near-constant state of anxious hope only ratcheted up by the Counsell deal back in November.

I don't think that was ever how Hoyer was thinking, and while he's smart enough to know that he needs to shore up portions of this roster, he doesn't seem at all interested in trying hard to meet the increased expectations of his fan constituency. He's said this all along, but fans frequently (and with some good reason) mistrust or dismiss those remarks. We like the shiny stuff. We like novelty. We like moves that give a sensation of change, especially after a season that ended in such frustration. 

Hoyer, by contrast, likes the team he put together last year, and believes in it more than Cubs fans do. He also thinks many of the improvements needed can and should come from within, with better deployment of the big-league roster and management of the grind of the season by Counsell and with continued wins in scouting and player development. He's hoping for major contributions from Pete Crow-Armstrong and other top prospects this season, and doesn't have the same attraction to more proven solutions at the Cubs' key positions of need that fans almost universally feel.

It's ok to think he's wrong to have such faith, but it's there. It's ok to think his zeal for his own farm system and developmental infrastructure is unearned or premature, but our skepticism doesn't affect Hoyer. The Cubs will get better for 2024 between now and mid-February, but it might not be by enough for most fans' tastes. As the shelves begin to empty, it's becoming clear that while fans were trying to shop for a new home, a new car, or a whole new self, Hoyer is looking to buy groceries. Hey, we all gotta eat.

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[Guest234]

So Hoyer expects Counsell to do a Tony LaRussa type job?