Article: The Cubs and the Vice of Patience

[Brandon Glick]

Jed Hoyer has a reputation for being patient. It often serves the Cubs well. This offseason, however, Jed’s greatest virtue might be betraying him and the team.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today

This is a companion piece to another I wrote regarding the Cubs’ modus operandi of sticking close to their internal player valuations. There, I was fair and holistic, analyzing how the organization-wide patience has both helped and hurt the Cubs in the past and present. This follow-up, however, is a condemnation of the Cubs for their inflexibility and unwillingness to adapt to the baseball landscape around them. 

Depending on whom you consult, the proverb “patience is a virtue” dates to at least the 1300s, and perhaps as far back as the fifth century (from the epic poem, Psychomachia). That little history lesson may not be entirely relevant to the Chicago Cubs of Major League Baseball in the year 2024, but it is a useful reminder that, in most disciplines in life, patience is a good quality to have. 

Sports are not like most disciplines. When the monetary value of the dollar increases rapidly in the real world, it skyrockets in the sphere of athletics. Valuations of sports teams long ago left the stratosphere, now entering territory that feels as much imaginary as merely gaudy. 

Year	Value of Chicago Cubs
2003	$335 million
2013	$1 billion
2023	$4.1 billion

Shohei Ohtani just signed a contract worth $700 million (your jokes about deferrals are appreciated), and then the same team that signed hhim turned around and handed Tyler Glasnow $136 million and Yoshinobu Yamamoto $325 million. Making “smart” deals is good business, but refusing to rescale your budget as the market shifts is not. 

In a vacuum, it’s easy to make a case that none of those three players are worth the money the Dodgers gave them. Ohtani’s pitching future is in doubt after a second Tommy John surgery, Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings in a year, and Yamomoto just earned the most expensive contract for a pitcher in MLB history even though he’s never thrown a pitch in the league before. That’s an obscene amount of risk on a $1.15 billion investment. 

Now, in the same breath, take a look at every roster in the National League. There isn’t a single team that can compete with the raw star power of the Dodgers, and only the Atlanta Braves deserve to even be mentioned in the same conversation of the NL’s true hegemon. Yes, the Dodgers have won the division every year since 2012 (besides 2021) and only won the World Series once (during the pandemic season), but what they’ve done should be the goal of every team: putting together an exceptionally competitive roster. 

Naturally, this is a good place for one of Jed’s favorite disclaimers: winning the offseason does not guarantee winning the season. In an interview with The Athletic before the Winter Meetings this year, Hoyer explained his approach.

“As I’ve said a lot of times over the years, winning the offseason is probably more curse than blessing. Cody Bellinger wasn’t exactly a move that people were lauding tremendously last year, and it was probably one of the best free-agent signings on the market," he said. "You just don’t know where the best deals are going to come from. Certainly, there are immensely talented players on the market, but I think if you go in thinking it’s one of those guys or bust, you can make some really bad long-term decisions.”

That attitude has helped the Cubs avoid onerous deals that clog up the payroll, like Anthony Rendon on the Angels or Carlos Rodón on the Yankees. It’s also the reason the Cubs began last season with Eric Hosmer, Luis Torrens, and Trey Mancini eating starts at first base and designated hitter, which probably cost them a couple of games in a year where they fell one game shy of the last Wild Card berth. 

There’s still a number of good players available, to be sure. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga are a trio of lefties with high-end starter upside. Josh Hader, David Robertson, and Jordan Hicks are a few late-game relievers with a track record of being a closer. Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and J.D. Martinez have the power and pedigree that could help transform the Cubs lineup, and each of them play positions at which the Cubs desperately need reinforcements. 

In a vacuum, signing any of those guys would make a lot of sense for the Cubs. But baseball doesn’t happen in a vacuum. There are other teams bidding for these players' services, each of which are only getting more antsy as each talented player comes off the board. And in a year in which the NL Central is wide open, the Cubs have done absolutely nothing to establish themselves as the cream of the crop. 

The Cubs can continue to be patient. In all likelihood, they will. Winning the offseason doesn’t guarantee winning the actual season, after all. But while the Dodgers and Braves can rest on their laurels, armed with as much leverage and talent as any organization in baseball, the Cubs will be forced to scour the remains of the market, battling it out in the trenches with other teams growing as desperate as they are. 

And they only have themselves to blame.

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[thawv]

Being patient lets you hold on to prospects too long.  Patience allows you to start bidding on tier 3 FA's.  The last thing this front office needs is patients.  

Edited December 26, 2023 by thawv

[Petrey10]

I don’t think any fan is saying sell out for one free agent. We want a team built to compete for a WS. At this very moment, I don’t see a combination of signings that can get us there. 
 

and great job Jed you hit on Bellinger last year. How did Hosmer and Mancini and Barnhart and Rios and Fulmer and  Boxberger and Tallion pan out?!? 
 

the negative War of that group reduces Belli to replacement level at best! 
 

im sorry but Barton bin shopping doesn’t win you a WS. It cost us a playoff birth last year. My bet is it’ll do the same this next year.

patience shouldn’t be needed when you have a FO that is actively trying to acquire talent. Our patience is thin bc we aren’t doing that. End of story.

[Rex Buckingham]

3 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

It’s also the reason the Cubs began last season with Eric Hosmer, Luis Torrens, and Trey Mancini eating starts at first base and designated hitter, which probably cost them a couple of games in a year where they fell one game shy of the last Wild Card berth. 

 

This right here is my biggest (and I suspect others') source of contention with the Cubs' apparent strategy. Getting cute and trying to sign guys you might be able to squeeze a little value out of (and to be fair, my bold prediction last year was that Mancini would be an all-star, but there's a reason I'm an idiot who posts here and not working for the Cubs) rather than acting like the big market team they are. Yes, there's still a lot of time left this offseason and plenty of good FAs, but I think it's fair to be disappointed with the way things have unfolded and seem to be heading, while also realizing it can change in one move (or a couple moves) from a disappointing to an exciting offseason. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

This right here is my biggest (and I suspect others') source of contention with the Cubs' apparent strategy. Getting cute and trying to sign guys you might be able to squeeze a little value out of (and to be fair, my bold prediction last year was that Mancini would be an all-star, but there's a reason I'm an idiot who posts here and not working for the Cubs) rather than acting like the big market team they are. Yes, there's still a lot of time left this offseason and plenty of good FAs, but I think it's fair to be disappointed with the way things have unfolded and seem to be heading, while also realizing it can change in one move (or a couple moves) from a disappointing to an exciting offseason. 

It's bad for us Cubs fans, but imagine being a Yankees fan. Ole Georgie is not only rolling in his grave, he's pounding on the casket.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

This right here is my biggest (and I suspect others') source of contention with the Cubs' apparent strategy. Getting cute and trying to sign guys you might be able to squeeze a little value out of (and to be fair, my bold prediction last year was that Mancini would be an all-star, but there's a reason I'm an idiot who posts here and not working for the Cubs) rather than acting like the big market team they are. Yes, there's still a lot of time left this offseason and plenty of good FAs, but I think it's fair to be disappointed with the way things have unfolded and seem to be heading, while also realizing it can change in one move (or a couple moves) from a disappointing to an exciting offseason. 

Trying to get a little value is what teams like the Royals and Pirates do while hoping you can trade them at the deadline for mediocre prospects do that you can extend your fans' patience while you continue your rebuild.  

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

I don’t think any fan is saying sell out for one free agent. We want a team built to compete for a WS. At this very moment, I don’t see a combination of signings that can get us there. 
 

and great job Jed you hit on Bellinger last year. How did Hosmer and Mancini and Barnhart and Rios and Fulmer and  Boxberger and Tallion pan out?!? 
 

the negative War of that group reduces Belli to replacement level at best! 
 

im sorry but Barton bin shopping doesn’t win you a WS. It cost us a playoff birth last year. My bet is it’ll do the same this next year.

patience shouldn’t be needed when you have a FO that is actively trying to acquire talent. Our patience is thin bc we aren’t doing that. End of story.

Signing Bellinger, Hoskins, and Chapman and trading for a TOR puts us in the hunt for the WS.

[Petrey10]

41 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Signing Bellinger, Hoskins, and Chapman and trading for a TOR puts us in the hunt for the WS.

What if Bellinger is the previous 3 years Belli and not 2023?

Do we really know what Hoskins is? He’s basically Mancini 

Chapman is def first 3b … his ops the last 3 years together is pretty much what we got from 3b last year…. 
 

and then what are you trading for this TOR arm? I’m guessing Morel is going to be in there. PCA is probably going to need to be in there. Plus an arm or two. Which yes could get us a TOR arm and I’m fine with but now we need a bullpen….. 

 

 

I think your signings are more of 2023 cubs. Flashes of some great ball. Petering out towards the end bc we just don’t have the top talent. 
 

 

[CubinNY]

24 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

What if Bellinger is the previous 3 years Belli and not 2023?

Do we really know what Hoskins is? He’s basically Mancini 

Chapman is def first 3b … his ops the last 3 years together is pretty much what we got from 3b last year…. 
 

and then what are you trading for this TOR arm? I’m guessing Morel is going to be in there. PCA is probably going to need to be in there. Plus an arm or two. Which yes could get us a TOR arm and I’m fine with but now we need a bullpen….. 

 

 

I think your signings are more of 2023 cubs. Flashes of some great ball. Petering out towards the end bc we just don’t have the top talent. 
 

 

what if they are good? jfc

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

What if Bellinger is the previous 3 years Belli and not 2023?

Do we really know what Hoskins is? He’s basically Mancini 

Chapman is def first 3b … his ops the last 3 years together is pretty much what we got from 3b last year…. 
 

and then what are you trading for this TOR arm? I’m guessing Morel is going to be in there. PCA is probably going to need to be in there. Plus an arm or two. Which yes could get us a TOR arm and I’m fine with but now we need a bullpen….. 

 

 

I think your signings are more of 2023 cubs. Flashes of some great ball. Petering out towards the end bc we just don’t have the top talent. 
 

 

Hoskins is not Mancini. Not even close. He is a career OPS+ of 126. That is very good. Only question on Hoskins is health. If he is healthy he will produce. 

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

What if Bellinger is the previous 3 years Belli and not 2023?

Do we really know what Hoskins is? He’s basically Mancini 

Chapman is def first 3b … his ops the last 3 years together is pretty much what we got from 3b last year…. 
 

and then what are you trading for this TOR arm? I’m guessing Morel is going to be in there. PCA is probably going to need to be in there. Plus an arm or two. Which yes could get us a TOR arm and I’m fine with but now we need a bullpen….. 

 

 

I think your signings are more of 2023 cubs. Flashes of some great ball. Petering out towards the end bc we just don’t have the top talent. 
 

 

Bellinger was seriously injured for two years which affected the third year, but he proved himself with Comeback Player of the Year in 2023.  Hoskins is much better than Mancini.  Signing Bellinger opens up trading PCA which makes A TOR trade an option.  Bieber may not be a TOR pitcher, but a trade for Bieber and Naylor also boosts the overall strength of the lineup.  As for Chapman, he will certainly outproduce any option we have at 3b unless somehow Morel learns to play defense (not likely).

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Backtobanks

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Bellinger was seriously injured for two years which affected the third year, but he proved himself with Comeback Player of the Year in 2023.  Hoskins is much better than Mancini.  Signing Bellinger opens up trading PCA which makes A TOR trade an option.  Bieber may not be a TOR pitcher, but a trade for Bieber and Naylor also boosts the overall strength of the lineup.  As for Chapman, he will certainly outproduce any option we have at 3b unless somehow Morel learns to play defense (not likely).

 

If they got Chapman and did trade for Naylor they wouldn’t have to also sign Hoskins. Morel can just DH. Then maybe they can spend on a decent, MOR pitcher instead of paying Hoskins. (Stroman? Giolito?)

[Backtobanks]

Using MLBTV to piece together a deal for Luzardo looks something like this: PCA + Wesneski + Mervis + Madrigal + Rojas for Luzardo.  Just goes to show you how valuable a 25-year-old TOR pitcher with 4 years of control really is.

[Billy62]

     After the managerial change here, I just have to believe there is an end game strategy. I admit watching the Dodgers and their attempt to recreate the "27" Yankees has been a bit frustrating. As it sits right now, our line-up is a south of what it was at the close of last season. Do they suspect that some of our younger players will be ready for prime time when the camp breaks this spring?, or does the club have its sights locked in on some people? I think they are serious about improving this team, just getting a little impatient I guess.

[CubinNY]

24 minutes ago, Billy62 said:

     After the managerial change here, I just have to believe there is an end game strategy. I admit watching the Dodgers and their attempt to recreate the "27" Yankees has been a bit frustrating. As it sits right now, our line-up is a south of what it was at the close of last season. Do they suspect that some of our younger players will be ready for prime time when the camp breaks this spring?, or does the club have its sights locked in on some people? I think they are serious about improving this team, just getting a little impatient I guess.

My opinion is that they believe that they are on the cusp of a very good young team. I think they buy into what is happening and the development team they put in place. There is a lot to like about the longer-term future. At the same time, I think they have a philosophical and strategic vision for how they want to build a team. That vision does not include, to paraphrase Tom Ricketts, "paying for past production". I think this is what is driving what we are seeing. As long as the Ricketts own the Cubs I think there will not be many occasions where they are going to go out of their way to sign big-name free agents to long term contracts. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by CubinNY

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

My opinion is that they believe that they are on the cusp of a very good young team. I think they buy into what is happening and the development team they put in place. There is a lot to like about the longer-term future. At the same time, I think they have a philosophical and strategic vision for how they want to build a team. That vision does not include, to paraphrase Tom Ricketts, "paying for past production". I think this is what is driving what we are seeing. As long as the Ricketts own the Cubs I think there will not be many occasions where they are going to go out of their way to sign big-name free agents to long term contracts. 

Agreed. And I will add, I think that philosophy is shared by Jed, as well. That is why he is here.

[Stratos]

Should have signed Abreu, Josh Bell, or Rizzo last year instead of Mancini and Hosmer.  I mean c'mon Jed!

Navarez or Zunino > Barnhart.  LET'S GOOOOOOO!!

[Stratos]

del

Edited December 27, 2023 by Stratos

[Stratos]

I believe the Cubs organization is at a point where the FO can afford to be even more patient than normal, largely due to the strong farm system.  This allows him more options and flexibility than usual in FA.

Jed doesn't NEED to sign a FA CF like Bellinger.  He has Tauchman, Canario, and PCA if needed.  He can also acquire a stopgap in a small trade if needed, or sign a guy like Bader until PCA is ready.

Jed doesn't NEED to sign a FA SP like Imanaga or Montgomery, in the short-term he can also trade prospects for a SP with 1 or 2 years of control left until Horton, Wicks, and Brown may all be ready to join Steele, Taillon, Assad, and Wesneski as rotation options.

He doesn't NEED to sign a FA 1B or DH.  He also has Mervis, Morel, Canario, and Wisdom as options there, and can also make a trade for one.

Similar with Chapman.  We have Morel + Madrigal + Wisdom, then Murray + Slaughter in AAA, plus Shaw in AA who might even be ready by the end of 2024 or next season.  Plus trade options on the table too.  If all those guys get the flu they have Triantos, Mastrobuoni, Strumpf, and Bote in the upper minors or on the bench as well as backups.  We have a lots of depth this year as most positions.

I think Jed will use this flexibility to wait out the market and pluck the best value deals that present themselves when comparing all the options in FA and in the trade market.  We can be sure he has done all his prep work with teams and agents and is simply waiting until the market presents the opportunity to pounce.

If a FO's job during the offseason is primarily to maximize the amount of talent and potential number of wins the team is likely to achieve given the payroll budget they're provided by ownership, in both the short and longterm, then this is a logical approach.

Jed's been working in the high levels of MLB front offices for 20 years for big market teams who have won a few World Series rings, so this isn't his first rodeo, so for now I trust he knows what he's doing.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Should have signed Abreu, Josh Bell, or Rizzo last year instead of Mancini and Hosmer.  I mean c'mon Jed!

Navarez or Zunino > Barnhart.  LET'S GOOOOOOO!!

To be fair none of those first baseman were any good or worth their contract. I wouldn’t want Abreu for another 2 years at around $17M a year. 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I believe the Cubs organization is at a point where the FO can afford to be even more patient than normal, largely due to the strong farm system.  This allows him more options and flexibility than usual in FA.

Jed doesn't NEED to sign a FA CF like Bellinger.  He has Tauchman, Canario, and PCA if needed.  He can also acquire a stopgap in a small trade if needed, or sign a guy like Bader until PCA is ready.

Jed doesn't NEED to sign a FA SP like Imanaga or Montgomery, in the short-term he can also trade prospects for a SP with 1 or 2 years of control left until Horton, Wicks, and Brown may all be ready to join Steele, Taillon, Assad, and Wesneski as rotation options.

He doesn't NEED to sign a FA 1B or DH.  He also has Mervis, Morel, Canario, and Wisdom as options there, and can also make a trade for one.

Similar with Chapman.  We have Morel + Madrigal + Wisdom, then Murray + Slaughter in AAA, plus Shaw in AA who might even be ready by the end of 2024 or next season.  Plus trade options on the table too.  If all those guys get the flu they have Triantos, Mastrobuoni, Strumpf, and Bote in the upper minors or on the bench as well as backups.  We have a lots of depth this year as most positions.

I think Jed will use this flexibility to wait out the market and pluck the best value deals that present themselves when comparing all the options in FA and in the trade market.  We can be sure he has done all his prep work with teams and agents and is simply waiting until the market presents the opportunity to pounce.

If a FO's job during the offseason is primarily to maximize the amount of talent and potential number of wins the team is likely to achieve given the payroll budget they're provided by ownership, in both the short and longterm, then this is a logical approach.

Jed's been working in the high levels of MLB front offices for 20 years for big market teams who have won a few World Series rings, so this isn't his first rodeo, so for now I trust he knows what he's doing.

We are just not going to agree. To me most of the options you are suggesting need upgrades. The  Cubs also don’t have to wait for the market to fall to get a guy. They don’t have to have the rest of baseball dictate what they do. They should know who they want and go get that guy. They are not the pirates. The plan they are using is a plan for teams with low revenues. 

[Brandon Glick]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

We are just not going to agree. To me most of the options you are suggesting need upgrades. The  Cubs also don’t have to wait for the market to fall to get a guy. They don’t have to have the rest of baseball dictate what they do. They should know who they want and go get that guy. They are not the pirates. The plan they are using is a plan for teams with low revenues. 

It's also worth noting that the way the MLB is currently constructed (via the CBA) is that teams like the Cubs are EXPECTED to spend big. The small market teams get compensation draft picks, extra international signing bonus pools, revenue sharing dollars, etc. The Cubs are actively putting themselves at a disadvantage by not spending. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Brandon Glick said:

It's also worth noting that the way the MLB is currently constructed (via the CBA) is that teams like the Cubs are EXPECTED to spend big. The small market teams get compensation draft picks, extra international signing bonus pools, revenue sharing dollars, etc. The Cubs are actively putting themselves at a disadvantage by not spending. 

Exactly. I have said that before. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

To be fair none of those first baseman were any good or worth their contract. I wouldn’t want Abreu for another 2 years at around $17M a year. 

Exactly my point.

I do complaint about the Mancini contract, but looking at the options last year it was very thin.  I believe only about 7 of the top 9 or so 1B on the FA market last year had a good season worth anywhere near their contract.  Belt and Drury.  We can count Bellinger too I guess, some credit to Jed there too I guess.

As far as Barnhart, the options weren't great last offseason also, I guess they went with defense-first at cheap cost and focused their money on other priorities.

A lot of players from last offseason's FA pool had disappointing years.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

We are just not going to agree. To me most of the options you are suggesting need upgrades. The  Cubs also don’t have to wait for the market to fall to get a guy. They don’t have to have the rest of baseball dictate what they do. They should know who they want and go get that guy. They are not the pirates. The plan they are using is a plan for teams with low revenues. 

My point was just that Jed has a lot of options so he has the luxury of being flexible.

I don't agree with the "go get your guy even if overpaying".  At the end of the day, every player has a n inherent value determined by the Cubs, and they need to numerically quantify it and put a price on that value.  Everyone is worth something, everyone can be underpaid or overpaid.  I don't see the reason for them to pigeonhole themselves

You're right, lower revenue teams do use this sort of Moneyball approach.  What if a team with a much larger payroll used the same approach?  What if the Rays had the Cubs payroll?  I think it's worth the experiment.