Article: 3 Cubs Whose 40-Man Roster Spots Need to Roll Over Before Spring Training

[Matthew Trueblood]

Giving up on players willy-nilly is no way to do business, but a healthy pace of turnover and trade is vital to the sustainability of a competitive organization. The Cubs have three open spots on their 40-man roster right now, but they also have three players they need to jettison by February.

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs need to add a potent bat to their lineup, a frontline starter to their rotation, and better depth to their bullpen this offseason. That's partially because of the failure of these three players to develop into anything useful.

Brennen Davis, OF
By every account, Davis is a great guy, a hard worker, and a very talented ballplayer. Sometimes, when it comes to trying to win baseball games, none of that ends up mattering. Injuries have stolen all the promise from Davis, and while there might still lurk some spark of hope for a resurgent season or two and a modest big-league career, he's little more than a phantom on the Cubs roster now. He's a long-levered, tragic reminder that Kevin Alcantara is no sure thing.

That Davis was rated so highly as a prospect just a couple of years ago is a cautionary tale, but not because he was fool's gold. He just failed the last, sternest, cruelest test a player has to pass, in order to become a success in MLB: he's not lucky. That sounds silly, and ephemeral. It sounds like waiting things out will fix it. Alas, that's not how this particular kind of baseball luck works. The gods just didn't dip enough of his body parts into the River Styx. The Cubs need to trade or cut Davis and spend that 40-man spot on a player who will deliver real value in 2024.

Caleb Kilian, RHP
The natural contrast with Davis is unkind to Kilian, because he hasn't been thwarted by injury. He's just not able to translate his raw talent into actionable big-league talent. Since he was a prospect in the Giants system, there have been doubts about his ability to flesh out a repertoire that misses bats in MLB, not least because of the wanting shape on his fastball(s). He's tinkered relentlessly and occasionally looked to be on the brink of figuring things out, only to have everything go back to seed.

The block might be mental. It might be mechanical. It might, after all, be physical, and he could be pitching right through stuff that might shelve a less determined soul. At this point, as is the case with Davis, it just doesn't matter. If anyone will make an offer for Kilian, the Cubs should take it, but he's not worth much even as a throw-in at this stage, and getting him off the roster will almost assuredly make room for a more useful pitcher--even if it be at a higher price for the Ricketts family.

Michael Rucker, RHP
A rubber-armed up-and-down guy is not without some value. David Ross wasn't great at extracting that value from Rucker, but he did explore various methods, and Rucker tried valiantly to make meaningful adjustments. It just isn't there. He's never going to be more than the seventh or eighth arm in a team's bullpen. If the Cubs had a clear and durable top pitcher or two in their bullpen hierarchy, they might be able to benefit from that kind of presence, the way Craig Counsell has benefited from having so many seemingly fungible arms float around at the edges of his bullpen in the recent past. To get to that kind of pen, though, the team needs to clear more roster space and chase some upside. Rucker has none of it. 

Would you stand up to defend holding onto any of this trio? Are there other members of the current 40-man roster you think the Cubs need to get shot of, in order to take the next step toward contention? Weigh in below.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't disagree that these are probably the three 40 man spots I'd swap out first, though I am curious how many of them are going to be needed.  I've been under the assumption that 4, probably 5 MLB additions were coming, and depending on the route and the trade pieces given up to get there, it's very plausible with the roster currently at 37 that none of those folks need to lose their spot before ST.  By *Opening Day* on the other hand, very different conversation.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

2 hours ago, Matt Trueblood said:

Brennen Davis, OF

Well that ain't him.

[Matthew Trueblood]

10 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Well that ain't him.

Fixed! Lol. Can't BELIEVE the B-Ref linker defaults to a kid in a summer wood-bat semipro league instead of him. 😄

[Bertz]

I think you give Davis one last half season before you cut bait.  Let's see if that second surgery can get him back to where he was two years ago.  You don't have to hold on forever, but I'd give him until at least June before I start thinking about that.

Kilian I think depends on other moves.  Right now he's probably 9th on the SP depth chart?  And that's before any more additions.  I like him slightly better than whatever depth rando you can get on a minor league deal, but the 40 man spot is probably more valuable than that difference.  If trade(s) deal a heavy blow to that depth and move him up to like 7th though, I do want the slight premium Kilian offers over the Matt Swarmers of the world.

Rucker yeah jettison away.  He's better than replacement level, but there are so many other arms ahead of him and right behind him that he's not goingnto get another meaningful chance here.

 

[Backtobanks]

Brennen Davis, OF
By every account, Davis is a great guy, a hard worker, and a very talented ballplayer. Sometimes, when it comes to trying to win baseball games, none of that ends up mattering. Injuries have stolen all the promise from Davis, and while there might still lurk some spark of hope for a resurgent season or two and a modest big-league career, he's little more than a phantom on the Cubs roster now. He's a long-levered, tragic reminder that Kevin Alcantara is no sure thing.

It should serve as a reminder that all of the highly valued prospects the Cubs seem to be waiting for are not sure things either.  Sign Bellinger, trade PCA+ for a young, controlled TOR, and either sign Hoskins or make the Guardian trade for Beiber/Naylor.