Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-8-22

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Game (All Times Central):

 

Iowa at St. Paul, 2:07 pm

Tennessee at Birmingham, 6:30 pm

South Bend vs Peoria, 1:05 pm

Myrtle Beach at Salem (game one), 1:30 pm

Myrtle Beach at Salem (game two), TBD

 

Tennessee: RHP Cam Sanders

South Bend: LHP DJ Herz

Myrtle Beach (game one): RHP Luis Devers

Myrtle Beach (game two): RHP Tyler Schlaffer

[Bertz]

DJ Herz was good, but only went 2.1 on 50 pitches. I hope that was planned, as he left mid inning

[CaliforniaRaisin]

DJ Herz was good, but only went 2.1 on 50 pitches. I hope that was planned, as he left mid inning

 

Yeah, he was on shorter than normal rest since he last started on Tuesday (4 days rest, rather than the standard 5 days in the minors).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[UK]

Herz's usage and fastball command all looking more and more reliever-ish, lefty took him to the warning track for the second out in the 2nd...Feels like the Cubs are trying to stay ahead of the league, it's crazy how many fastballs bounce or sail on him during these last few pretty brief outings...Got pulled when the top of the lineup came up again facing only Winn a second time...The changeup is just, by far, his most effective pitch...It's worth noting this is his second start of the week but I think it's for a combined 6 innings

 

For someone who wanted A. Chapman always to start, I find the short leash ironic.

 

I do agree however that odds have him as a late inning lefty ala A. Miller.

[Bertz]

 

Ended up at 77 pitches.

 

Feels like getting him a few starts north of 100 without seeing any subsequent issues is really the only thing left that he needs. He's not running the crazy K/BB numbers he had with the Giants last year, but they're very good ones and he's running a groundball rate north of 60%. He's certainly one of our top 5 starters and is probably one of our top 2.

[UK]

 

Ended up at 77 pitches.

 

Feels like getting him a few starts north of 100 without seeing any subsequent issues is really the only thing left that he needs. He's not running the crazy K/BB numbers he had with the Giants last year, but they're very good ones and he's running a groundball rate north of 60%. He's certainly one of our top 5 starters and is probably one of our top 2.

 

He's the most important pitcher in the entire organization right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Velazquez with the 'contact is for suckers' line of 0 for 4 with 2 BB and 4 K

[Bertz]

Nelly's got just such a fascinating profile. Fangraphs doesn't have his AFL numbers, but I think they're largely in line with his full season numbers, and collectively in AA/AAA he's got a:

 

- 23.6% groundball rate. To put this in perspective, it would be the second lowest single season rate of the last ten years (2016 Ryan Schimpf). Since 2019, Mike Trout, Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Belt, and Adam Duvall are the only guys under 30% in aggregate with substantial playing time

 

- He's walked 10.8% of the time, not a crazy amount but a good one

 

- He's struck out 30.3% of the time, a lot but increasingly not a disqualifying amount. We're now in an age where 5-10 qualifying batters a year are north of 30%

 

- A 25% HR/FB rate, a positively elite number particularly when you consider that the minors (I believe) never got the rabbit ball

 

- He's reportedly a tweener defensively. That's usually an insult, but it's usually used to talk about guys with much more modest juice in their bats

 

I think I've thrown out Hunter Renfroe as a comp, but you know who might be much closer is Adam Duvall. Duvall is a fantastic corner outfielder and a passable CFer. He hits the horsefeathers out of the ball, rarely on the ground. The big difference is that Duvall never walks. Add the extra 10-15 walks a year Nelly's likely to give you and that's the difference between a high end reserve like Duvall and a legit everyday starter.