NSBB Mock NCAA Bracket 2021

[bukie]

5 bids up for grabs tonight

 

Colonial - (8) Elon vs. (6) Drexel

Northeast - (4) Mt. St. Mary's @ (2) Bryant

Horizon - (3) Oakland vs. (1) Cleveland St.

Summit - (4) Oral Roberts vs. (3) North Dakota St.

West Coast - (2) BYU vs. (1) Gonzaga

 

 

Winners:

Colonial - Drexel

Northeast - Mount St. Mary's

Horizon - Cleveland State

Summit - Oral Roberts

West Coast - Gonzaga

 

As for the first round of ranking, here are the teams off the board now:

- Belmont

- Colgate

- Duke

- Georgia

- Kentucky

- Memphis

- Minnesota

- Mississippi

- NC State

- Penn State

 

Teams mentioned to boot off the ranking but just once, so they stay for now:

- Utah State

- Stanford

- SMU

- St. John's

- St. Louis

- Seton Hall

- Indiana

 

Current S-Curve - top 6 overall:

1. Gonzaga

2. Baylor

3. Michigan

4. Illinois

5. Alabama

6. Iowa

 

Auto bids not in S-Curve:

Liberty A-SUN

Winthrop BSth

Drexel CAA

Cleveland State Hor

Loyola-Chicago MVC

Mount St. Mary's NEC

Morehead State OVC

UNC Greensboro SC

Oral Roberts Sum

Appalachian State SB

 

 

Remainder of at-large board:

 

Arkansas SEC

Boise State MWC

BYU WCC

Clemson ACC

Colorado P12

Colorado State MWC

Connecticut BE

Creighton BE

Drake MVC

Florida SEC

Florida State ACC

Georgia Tech ACC

Houston AAC

Indiana B1G

Kansas B12

Louisville ACC

LSU SEC

Maryland B1G

Michigan State B1G

Missouri SEC

North Carolina ACC

Ohio State B1G

Oklahoma B12

Oklahoma State B12

Oregon P12

Purdue B1G

Rutgers B1G

San Diego State MWC

Seton Hall BE

SMU AAC

St. Bonaventure A10

St. John's BE

St. Louis A10

Stanford P12

Syracuse ACC

Tennessee SEC

Texas B12

Texas Tech B12

UCLA P12

USC P12

Utah State MWC

VCU A10

Villanova BE

Virginia ACC

Virginia Tech ACC

West Virginia B12

Western Kentucky CUSA

Wichita State AAC

Wisconsin B1G

Xavier BE

 

[bukie]

Next step:

 

Next 10 of teams not in S-curve:

 

7. Ohio State

8. Arkansas

9. Kansas

10. Purdue

11. Houston

12. Oklahoma State

13. West Virginia

14. Texas

15. USC

16. Virginia

 

[UMFan83]

Next 10:

 

 

7. Ohio State

8. Kansas

9. Arkansas

10. Purdue

11. West Virginia

12. Houston

13. Villanova

14. Virginia

15. USC

16. West Virginia

 

 

 

 

Having a hard time reconciling NET rating with their "Nitty Gritty" team sheets for some of these teams. For instance Houston, 2-1 against Q1, not so great SOS, doesn't even look like they are blowing many teams out. But they are 6th in NET. Villanova is also super hard to place due to their injury situation, and I know the committee takes that into account. I thought everyone was overrating Purdue because I haven't caught a lot of their games, and the one game I did catch Michigan destroyed them at Mackey, but they have built up a really solid resume

[bukie]

Next 10:

 

 

7. Ohio State

8. Kansas

9. Arkansas

10. Purdue

11. West Virginia

12. Houston

13. Villanova

14. Virginia

15. USC

16. West Virginia

 

 

 

 

Having a hard time reconciling NET rating with their "Nitty Gritty" team sheets for some of these teams. For instance Houston, 2-1 against Q1, not so great SOS, doesn't even look like they are blowing many teams out. But they are 6th in NET. Villanova is also super hard to place due to their injury situation, and I know the committee takes that into account. I thought everyone was overrating Purdue because I haven't caught a lot of their games, and the one game I did catch Michigan destroyed them at Mackey, but they have built up a really solid resume

Houston has only played 6 games this year within 10 points, and they're 3-3 in those games. They've been bulldozing the American conference this year (actually finished a full game up on Wichita State in the conference standings by games played, but lost out on winning percentage due to Wichita playing 5 fewer games). They're a good team with a less good profile, which is why on strength of record and wins above bubble metrics they're closer to a 5-6 seed, while in NET and KP they're closer to a 2 seed. I suspect they'll fall somewhere in the middle, but they're good enough for a 3 seed to me.

[bukie]

It looks like Duke's season is over:

[Ding Dong Johnson]

2 straight years not making the tourney. Good job Coach K.

[bukie]

Oklahoma State beats West Virginia 72-69, with WVU actually hitting a tying 3, but just after the buzzer.

[bukie]

Maryland beats Michigan State 68-57, leaving MSU's best win away from Breslin as....Indiana? Duke?

[bukie]

Top seed Toledo hangs on in overtime in the MAC quarters and will move on to face the Akron-Ohio winner in the semis.

 

At some point today I'll list the at-large bids and favorites from single-bid conferences to rank.

[UMFan83]

Maryland beats Michigan State 68-57, leaving MSU's best win away from Breslin as....Indiana? Duke?

 

They're still in but they will be sweating out a first four appearance at least a little bit.

 

I was 100% expecting Michigan-Michigan State Part 3 tomorrow

[UMFan83]

West Virginia loses 3 of its last 4, albeit to Baylor and OK St twice. I think I underrated Oklahoma State on my seedings. They should be a top 4 seed easily

[bukie]

Maryland beats Michigan State 68-57, leaving MSU's best win away from Breslin as....Indiana? Duke?

 

They're still in but they will be sweating out a first four appearance at least a little bit.

 

I was 100% expecting Michigan-Michigan State Part 3 tomorrow

I was fully expecting Maryland to blow them out as they did 2 weeks ago. MSU has trouble winning without officiating favoritism this year, as they don't have the offensive talent to create shots, nor the defensive talent to prevent shots when not fouling.

 

Their 3 best wins of the year all came in Breslin, and 2 of them when they were able to remove one of the opponent's best players from the game, literally.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't know if it's just because it's been a few years since I've done this, but this is really hard to differentiate between these teams from the 3-6 line.

 

 

7. Ohio State

8. Arkansas

9. Kansas

10. WV

11. Houston

12. Creighton

13. USC

14. Texas

15. Okie St

16. Villanova

 

[SouthSideRyan]

Texas swept Texas Tech so obviously...but Texas Tech was swept by West Virginia and Okie State, oh well then given how OK State finished...but they were swept by a terrible TCU team...

[Old Style]

The Dookies got knocked out by the Trump Flu. Lol.

[bukie]

Now we've got 12 in the S-Curve:

1 Gonzaga WCC

2 Baylor B12

3 Michigan B1G

4 Illinois B1G

5 Alabama SEC

6 Iowa B1G

7 Ohio State B1G

8 Arkansas SEC

9 Kansas B12

10 Houston AAC

11 West Virginia B12

12 Purdue B1G

 

 

Next steps:

- Next 16

- Rank the one bid winners (and potential winners)

 

Here are the one-bid auto bid leagues:

* Liberty A-SUN

* Winthrop BSth

* Drexel CAA

* Cleveland State Hor

* Mount St. Mary's NEC

* Morehead State OVC

* UNC Greensboro SC

* Oral Roberts Sum

* Appalachian State SB

Hartford AE

Southern Utah Bsky

UC Santa Barbara BW

Western Kentucky CUSA

Iona MAAC

Norfolk State MEAC

San Diego State MWC

Colgate PAT

Nicholls State SLnd

Prairie View A&M SWAC

Grand Canyon WAC

[SouthSideRyan]

One Bid Leagues

 

49(but almost certianly not really this low) San Diego State MWC

50 Western Kentucky CUSA

51 UC Santa Barbara BW

52 * Winthrop BSth

53 * UNC Greensboro SC

54 Liberty A-SUN

55 * Cleveland State Hor

56 * Morehead State OVC

57 Colgate PAT

58 * Oral Roberts Sum

59 Grand Canyon WAC

60 Southern Utah Bsky

61 * Appalachian State SB

62 Prairie View A&M SWAC

63 * Drexel CAA

64 Nicholls State SLnd

65 Hartford AE

66 Iona MAAC

67 Norfolk State MEAC

68 * Mount St. Mary's NEC

 

[SouthSideRyan]

Next 16

 

13 Creighton

14 Texas

15 Okie St

16 USC

17 Villanova

18 Texas Tech

19 FSU

20 Virginia

21 Connecticut

22 Oregon

23 Colorado

24 Tennessee

25 San Diego State

26 Clemson

27 Missouri

28 Oklahoma

 

[SouthSideRyan]

Revisiting what we've done thus far, of the teams we've eliminated, only 3 are still playing with a chance to keep improving their resume.

 

Colgate - in a terrible league, can only hurt their resume with a loss

Memphis - has the chance to face Houston if they meet in the semis, but Wichita or SMU beating them in the final seems to undo some of that.

Mississippi - They don't get the shot at Alabama as an at-large eligible, get LSU, then they hope Arkansas before falling to Bama.

[bukie]

One bids:

68. * Appalachian State SB

67. * Mount St. Mary's NEC

66. Norfolk State MEAC

65. * Oral Roberts Sum

64. Hartford AE

63. * Drexel CAA

62. * UNC Greensboro SC

61. Nicholls State SLnd

60. Grand Canyon WAC

59. Iona MAAC

58. * Cleveland State Hor

57. Prairie View A&M SWAC

56. * Morehead State OVC

55. * Liberty A-SUN

54. Southern Utah Bsky

53. UC Santa Barbara BW

52. Western Kentucky CUSA

51. Colgate PAT

50. * Winthrop BSth

49. San Diego State MWC

 

 

Next 16:

13. Oklahoma State

14. USC

15. Oregon

16. Texas

17. Virginia

18. Creighton

19. BYU

20. Florida State

21. Villanova

22. Colorado

23. North Carolina

24. Connecticut

25. Clemson

26. Missouri

27. Wisconsin

28. Tennessee

 

[bukie]

Virginia has a COVID positive test and is out of the ACC tournament, status yet unknown for NCAAs.

[bukie]

On a lesser note, North Carolina A&T is out of the MEAC tournament due to COVID issues, and they have suspended basketball operations for two weeks and thus their season is over.

[bukie]

On the topic of the ACC, this could be the first year ever (since they started seeding in 1978) that no ACC team gets a top 4 seed.

[bukie]

From bad to worse, the ACC tournament in danger of getting cancelled:

 

[tweet]

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[SouthSideRyan]

Don't go home just yet Minnesota.