2020 Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs have never taken advantage of this and might be poor now but this seems like the perfect year to poach some extra draft picks. I bet the Marlins would love to trade theirs away.

 

Mike: Would any teams that have a competitive balance pick look to trade it in order to save money given the circumstances of this draft? Or are teams barred from making such a transaction at the moment?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: good question. Maybe they would for the right asset/player? If it’s an effort to save money (remember draft bonuses aren’t paid immediately this year, they’re deferred) then it’d have to be a very low-paid player or slot money or something. Seems unlikely

 

Okay, I’m done spamming this thread.

[Named After Maddux]

The Cubs were mocked Garrett Crochet in a recent Prospect 365 article

All things considered, this is a fantastic pick for the Cubs. College pitcher is the heavy assumption here, and—in my eyes—Crochet being available here is the difference in drafting the 11th-ranked prospect on my recently-released FYPD list and the 27th-ranked (or worse) prospect. The southpaw has massive potential, but his lack of 2020 sample (3.1 IP in a single start) is sure to make organizations reluctant. It hasn’t been publicized much, but the Cubs have done a good employing analytics and pitch data to develop their minor league pitchers; this will certainly help as Crochet looks to add a viable third pitch as a professional. The hypothetical duo of Crochet and Brailyn Marquez in the Windy City is a frightening thought for opposing hitters; the former could be a bullpen option of Chicago later this summer. Current FYPD Rank: 11th, Others to watch: Tanner Burns, Cole Wilcox

Some familiar names mentioned. I believe Crochet has been mocked to the Cubs a couple of times and Tanner Burns has been mentioned as well.

 

Just for the sake of discussion, it's interesting to look at AJ Puk as a recent comp to Crochet. They possess similar builds and arsenals. They also dealt with health issues during their draft year. Puk had much more experience in the weekend rotation for Florida, but was a common pick for 1-1 in 2016 projections.

 

MLB Pipeline's report on AJ Puk's pitches in 2016; 6'7" 230 lbs, LHP Florida

Scouting Grades: 70 FB, 55 SL, 50 CH, 45 Control, 55 Overall

Big and strong, Puk arguably has the best raw stuff of any arm in the class, with the chance to have three plus pitches. He's capable of touching 96-97 mph with his fastball regulary. Ironically, he might have been at his best in the one inning he threw before his back acted up, showing a 96-99 mph fastball and a plus slider at 88-90 mph. He can maintain his velocity deep into starts and while his changeup is his third pitch, it should be Major League average in the future.

 

Puk's biggest stumbling block has been his control and command, something that has kept him from dominating college competition consistently.

 

MLB Pipeline's report on Garrett Crochet's pitches in 2020; 6'6" 218 lbs, LHP Tennessee

Scouting Grades: 65 FB, 55 SL, 60 CH, 50 Control, 50 Overall

After working with a 91-95 mph fastball and topping out at 97 during the spring, Crochet dealt at 96-100 for most of the fall, and his heater already played better than its velocity because it has high spin rates. His 82-85 mph slider features above-average spin rates as well and his long arms create difficult angle on his breaking ball. He flashes a well above-average changeup at times, throwing it around 90 mph with deceptive arm speed.

 

For a 6-foot-6 pitcher, Crochet does a nice job of keeping his long levers in sync and providing strikes. Scouts like his delivery and arm action, though he still needs to refine his command to make the most of his overpowering stuff.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley has another mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

 

Mitchell is a consensus top-10 prospect by draft models, thanks to some very attractive components -- history of high contact rate, 70 speed, 55 raw power -- but he is much lower for many scouts due to some other qualities -- lack of improvement in college, lack of in-game power, choosing not to play in the fall his whole college career, generally playing below his tools since his high school underclass days. His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players -- Sam Fuld is the most prominent example -- so Mitchell is not in play for some clubs. That full list hasn't come into focus yet, but the assumption is that someone will take him in the middle of the first round. The Cubs have a new voice at the helm of their draft in Dan Kantrovitz (formerly with Oakland and St. Louis), and clubs have noticed them showing more interest in upside types than they did at their top pick in recent years.

 

Hassell went 8, Hendrick 12, Soderstrom 13, Crochet 14, Abel 17, PCA 18, Howard 37 and no Burns. Risers include Bitsko at 15 and Foscue at 19.

[Hrubes20]

My rage would know no bounds if this guy opened his tenure by selecting Crochet. 13 HRs allowed in just 63 and change during 2018, 21 in 132 NCAA innings, 137 hits allowed...Tbf pitchers are less straightforward than hitters and MLB.com's praise for the changeup was better than I thought, but still!

 

I'd literally with a British accent rather take Jared Shuster among the college LHSPs. Hell, Shuster might be behind only Hancock and Lacy among the NCAA SPs. The case for him is that he's been crushing it with huge gains since last summer, was up to 97 this spring with a better breaking ball, has one of the best changes in the draft, went to a summer wood bat league twice (CCBL once) and pitched really well...

 

I don't love the prior shoulder issue, either.

[Hrubes20]

Kiley has another mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

 

Mitchell is a consensus top-10 prospect by draft models, thanks to some very attractive components -- history of high contact rate, 70 speed, 55 raw power -- but he is much lower for many scouts due to some other qualities -- lack of improvement in college, lack of in-game power, choosing not to play in the fall his whole college career, generally playing below his tools since his high school underclass days. His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players -- Sam Fuld is the most prominent example -- so Mitchell is not in play for some clubs. That full list hasn't come into focus yet, but the assumption is that someone will take him in the middle of the first round. The Cubs have a new voice at the helm of their draft in Dan Kantrovitz (formerly with Oakland and St. Louis), and clubs have noticed them showing more interest in upside types than they did at their top pick in recent years.

 

Hassell went 8, Hendrick 12, Soderstrom 13, Crochet 14, Abel 17, PCA 18, Howard 37 and no Burns. Risers include Bitsko at 15 and Foscue at 19.

 

Yes, please.

[Cubswin11]

 

The upside talk is nice to hear though, I think it's the right way to go

Yeah I think you go upside/risk with the picks this year and then go get the more projectable, higher/safer floor dudes in the UDFA part. Daniel Cabrera is probably my favorite pick if they do go with a “safe” pick at 16.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm actually pretty much against Mitchell at 16 too, am just very rarely going to be into a college bat who skips the CCBL especially with the suspended draft season. Mitchell didn't record any playing time with Team USA either last summer, got an invite, so no postseason ball at all last year. The kind of improvements he made offensively during this year before shutdown were matched or bettered by guys who did go to the CCBL and hit like Daniel Cabrera, Zac Deloach, Alex Toral, Jacob Teter, Kaden Polcovich...I also find his swing very tight and armsy for a guy getting so much praise for athleticism...Not to assume too much but Kranovitz probably wasn't brought in to overhaul their approach on college hitters, more pitchers and HSers, and Mitchell is off profile for a college bat in the first

 

The upside talk is nice to hear though, I think it's the right way to go

 

Mitchell played for Team USA last summer but hurt his leg early on.

[stitchface]

"His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players"

 

apparently has never heard of Ron Santo.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA:

 

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

 

Notes:

We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.

[Hrubes20]

Longenhagen's new mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs- Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

 

I think some of the teams picking in the middle of round one (Reds, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, D-backs) might be more motivated than usual to take a pitcher who they can plug and play in their bullpen sometime this summer, and the Phillies are perhaps the most needy of these. Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet and Texas Tech righty Clayton Beeter (in the James Karinchak mold mechanically, 94-98 with a 70 slider) each have two pitches that would probably miss big league bats right now and would be good fits for this.

 

Bullpenning them for the rest of this year doesn’t preclude you from developing them as starters next spring. It doesn’t seem Philly is limited to this player pool and is casting a wide net; they’re also interested in Bitsko and Soderstrom according to sources. Hassell is also just great value at this point and would be a threat to go at any of these picks.

 

Abel is gone by 12, PCA goes to Rays at 24...I'm on the Shuster wagon for college starter arms with two weeks to go, Cavalli's fastball command is a little weak makes it hittable and HRable

 

I don't think I've ever agreed with you this much, Tom, but here we are. Cavalli's fastaball command is the huge reason why I don't want him.

 

BA:

 

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

 

Notes:

We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.

 

I'm not optimistic Abel is there, but man would this be a fun pick.

[Named After Maddux]

 

BA:

 

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

 

Notes:

We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.

 

I'm not optimistic Abel is there, but man would this be a fun pick.

 

Pretty much all of the names mentioned in that blurb would be exciting (except Austin Wells). I hope the chatter about the Cubs being more open to upside comes true. It doesn't have to be prep, but if the board falls that way to have one of Abel, Soderstrom, or Pete Crow-Armstrong (I doubt Hassell gets past picks 8-10) be the pick. There's risk there, but I would much prefer coming out of the draft with one of those three rather than a safe guy like Chris McMahon or one with previous health issues and reliever questions like Cavalli or Beeter.

[CubsWin]

BA:

 

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

 

Notes:

We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about

more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.

 

BA finally tying the Cubs to arguably the highest ceiling arm and only true CF prospect in the draft? Finally and get it done, Kranovitz!

 

Wells screams smoke screen...No one thinks he can catch...OTOH he mostly fits the org's tendencies during the initial rebuild by coming off a big regular season and CCBL in 2019, still not too worried he's actually someone they would take

Is there a joke I'm not privy to by calling him Kranovitz?

 

Seriously asking. Not sarcasm.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Callis mock today (Abel, Bitsko, PCA, Howard, Foscue, Miller & Beeter were also available):

 

16. Cubs: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS

The Cubs have done a nice job signing and developing young amateur hitters, so it's no surprise that they get mentioned with prep bats such as Hassell, Hendrick, Howard and Soderstrom. They also need pitching help, so Crochet or the premier high school arms could make sense.

 

Law mock today (Abel, Howard, Mitchell, Crochett, Beeter & Miller were also available):

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny (Penn.) HS

 

Hendrick has some of the best power in the high school class this year but has been dinged a bit for his age (he’ll turn 19 in mid-June) and didn’t get to play at all this spring.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Hrubes20]

Digging a bit more into the prep players, and Enrique Bradfield is my "stupid fast" player I want in the 3rd-5th. Vandy commit makes him extremely unlikely, though.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Digging a bit more into the prep players, and Enrique Bradfield is my "stupid fast" player I want in the 3rd-5th. Vandy commit makes him extremely unlikely, though.

 

I’m generally wary of speed-first guys - especially this year since I only expect the Cubs to take 1 prep guy. I prefer to err on the side of better hit tools for prep guys and hope for better power down the road at the expense of speed/defense (it’s probably why I’m higher on Hassell than you). That said, his hit tool seems decent enough and with his speed and defense, I don’t care if he can’t hit for power.

 

But I think you’re right, he’s probably too expensive for the Cubs limited pool space.

[Hrubes20]

Digging a bit more into the prep players, and Enrique Bradfield is my "stupid fast" player I want in the 3rd-5th. Vandy commit makes him extremely unlikely, though.

 

I’m generally wary of speed-first guys - especially this year since I only expect the Cubs to take 1 prep guy. I prefer to err on the side of better hit tools for prep guys and hope for better power down the road at the expense of speed/defense (it’s probably why I’m higher on Hassell than you). That said, his hit tool seems decent enough and with his speed and defense, I don’t care if he can’t hit for power.

 

But I think you’re right, he’s probably too expensive for the Cubs limited pool space.

 

As you said, I think Bradfield's hit tool is better than the usual prep speed demon types. But if the Cubs are only taking 1 prep guy, I definitely would not like to pass on one of those guys in the 1st so that Bradfield could be taken later.

 

Hit tool is always #1 for me, but the rest of the profile has to fit as well. With Hassell, there is too much "tweener" talk defensively and I really don't like no-power LFers. I like him much more if he sticks in CF.

[Cubswin11]

An alternative to MLBN and Harold Reynolds is something nice

 

[Cubswin11]

From Kiley today, fwiw

 

Where their farm system ranks: 24th

 

Biggest system strengths: Up-the-middle bats

 

Biggest system needs: Starting pitchers

 

Six of the Cubs' top 10 prospects (and all of the top three) fit best at one of the up-the-middle defensive positions, and all have a real chance to be everyday players; the two lowest-rated prospects of the six are just 16 years old. Of the pitchers rated above 40 Future Value, only two (Cory Abbott and Kohl Franklin) are likely to stay as starters if/when they reach the big leagues, so there could continue to be a young starting pitcher inventory problem in Chicago.

 

How they typically draft: College pitchers

 

The Cubs are under the guidance of Dan Kantrovitz (formerly of the A's and Cardinals) for this year's draft. He has skewed toward college players in the drafts he has run in the past and the Cubs took college pitchers at a higher-than-average rate under the previous amateur scouting regime, but rumors have the Cubs targeting upside with their first couple of picks this year.

 

Best fits: Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko, Jordan Walker

 

2020 draft picks: No. 16, No. 51, No. 88, No. 117, No. 147

 

Past five first-round picks: RHP Ryan Jensen (2019); SS Nico Hoerner (2018); LHP Brendon Little (2017); RHP Alex Lange (2017); 2B/OF Ian Happ (2015)

[Named After Maddux]

Great little race this year for top prep arm, Abel had me pretty convinced. I reeeeally wish Fulton stayed healthy since with my new perspective, he and Abel would be neck and neck

 

I’m a little skittish with Kelley since there haven’t been glowing reports about his ability to spin a breaking ball. That plus the risky demographic is a bit scary. I’d prefer Abel (like you mentioned) and I think Fulton will likely make Baltimore very happy. But I can’t say there isn’t a fun thought about the Cubs taking Kelley and teaching him one of those knuckle curves.

[Hrubes20]

I’m a little skittish with Kelley since there haven’t been glowing reports about his ability to spin a breaking ball. That plus the risky demographic is a bit scary. I’d prefer Abel (like you mentioned) and I think Fulton will likely make Baltimore very happy. But I can’t say there isn’t a fun thought about the Cubs taking Kelley and teaching him one of those knuckle curves.

 

Oh, sorry to clear that up: I think a healthy Fulton is hanging with Abel at 2 with Kelley up top

 

I felt the same way about Kelley and kinda just sat on it for a while. Over time have come to strongly suspect Kelley's breaking ball concerns are overblown, seems like Longenhagen is the only national guy who thinks there's nothing really to work with there while guys like Law and Callazo are more optimistic sounding. Outside of the breaking ball, I think Kelley has the better fastball, fastball command, control, primary offspeed, overall command and control, and body over Abel. There's some talk about Abel's strike throwing too that I think is fair to question and it just seems like Kelley's outperformed him going back to last Spring

 

You like Kelley's body over Abel's? The video I watched of Kelley makes him look a little portly already. Abel looks like a young Strasburg. Long, thin, and loose limbs with plenty of room to add good weight. Or did you mean body of work?

[Hrubes20]

You like Kelley's body over Abel's? The video I watched of Kelley makes him look a little portly already. Abel looks like a young Strasburg. Long, thin, and loose limbs with plenty of room to add good weight. Or did you mean body of work?

 

100%, Abel's going to need a good 20 pounds to catch up. Thin's not an ideal SP build, something Abel build comps like Strasburg or AJ Burnett at that age had to move past...The body is a factor in the optimism for Kelley to reach the majors by 20-21, doesn't need much

 

I think I said it very early in this thread but Kelley looks alot like I hope Richard Gallardo will, though I think the first time was to pass on Kelley an option

 

Body of work too...Kelley was better thah Abel last year from the sounds of it, utterly dominated the little season he had this year, and is more decorated and accomplished (D1 QB recruit), Gatorade thing)...There's just more meat

 

For a finished product, I completely agree. For an 18 year old that is very likely still maturing? Give me the one with the frame that isn't already maxed out, and likely only going to get worse as it ages. However, I went and watched some more video of Kelley and he's not nearly as chubby as the UA video made him appear.

 

Completely agree on Kelley having the better body of work.

[Bertz]

 

It's somewhat lucky that Paddack and Castillo are the new single best comps, because both are very successful young big league starters, but that also makes Bitsko's current ability sound a bit better than it is. Both Paddack and Castillo use a changeup as their primary off-speed pitch. Castillo's slider (17% usage, run value is basically league average) and Paddack's curveball (10% usage, also roughly average run value) are tertiary pitches for top pitchers.

 

Looking at it another way, Bitsko's raw stuff -- the velocity and movement of his four-seam fastball, slider, curveball -- has all the quality of current big league starting pitchers and could plausibly be the arsenal for a current big league starter. And he's still 17 with a limited track record of pitching.

 

This is a fun read. It also makes me wonder if all of the new technology from the last few years might re-value HS arms a bit more.

[Hrubes20]

Another mock with Abel as the pick.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2020-mlb-mock-draft-tigers-hold-steady-at-no-1-high-school-outfielder-jumps-into-top-five/