Blast from the past Sosa-Aaron debate of 2002

[cubbieinexile]

How quickly things change in baseball.

 

 

Here is the first post:

As of right now Sammy has 450 hrs for his career. He needs 306 more to surpass Aaron. I don't believe that there's another player in MLB that has a shot at the record. That is, unless Bonds can play until he's 44 or 45, which wouldn't surprise me. Even so, given the fact that Sammy is just now coming into his prime, he could eclipse the mark by the time he's 40! That would be, as they say, Ruthian! Add a couple of WS rings to Sammy's fingers and you have a HOF legend!

 

I remember those years, Sosa just came off a 64 homer season, and we all thought he would go on forever. Now i hear people saying Sammy has lost bat speed and it looks like Sammy will top out at around 45 homers or so. It looks less and less likely that he will break Aaron's record.

 

So I guess the new question is will he break 700 homers?

[LeftCoastCubFan]

How quickly things change in baseball.

 

 

Here is the first post:

As of right now Sammy has 450 hrs for his career. He needs 306 more to surpass Aaron. I don't believe that there's another player in MLB that has a shot at the record. That is, unless Bonds can play until he's 44 or 45, which wouldn't surprise me. Even so, given the fact that Sammy is just now coming into his prime, he could eclipse the mark by the time he's 40! That would be, as they say, Ruthian! Add a couple of WS rings to Sammy's fingers and you have a HOF legend!

 

I remember those years, Sosa just came off a 64 homer season, and we all thought he would go on forever. Now i hear people saying Sammy has lost bat speed and it looks like Sammy will top out at around 45 homers or so. It looks less and less likely that he will break Aaron's record.

 

So I guess the new question is will he break 700 homers?

Assuming he’s healthy, Aaron is probably off limits, but Ruth is possible. If he hits 45 this year and 40 next year, he will have 624 and be number 5 on the all-time list. If he plays for 3 more years after that averaging 30 homers a year, that would put him at 714. But there is no guarantee he won’t drop of even more. He would need a Barry-like epiphany in his later years.

 

600 is a sure thing, 700 is possible, anything above that would be amazing.

 

Also, if he can average 90-100 rbi’s over the next 5 years he’s pushing 1,900 to 2,000 which would have him pushing the top 5 in career rbi’s.

[Warpticon]

All this talk got me looking back at his numbers, and something really stood out to me.

 

In 1992, when the Cubs traded for him, he was coming off a season in which he had an OPS of *.575.* Holy crap. I realized he hadn't lived up to his potential back then, but I didn't realize he was THAT bad. He truly has come a long way.

[cubbieinexile]

Another look at how things change over time.

February 2002

I see it being very unlikely that Sosa will be able to stay in the lineup everyday like he does now 3 to 4 years from now. I also have a hard time believing he will be able to maintain this pace. Look at 2000 for proof. That year he "slumped" to 50 homers. If he does that a couple of times more suddenly we are looking at a record that will take 6,7, or 8 years to break. Can Sosa hit 60 homers when he is 39 or 41? Again I don't know. I think if Sosa can maintain the pace he is on for another 4 years then I would say that he would break the record. I just think it is to early to tell.

 

 

10867.10 in reply to 10867.8

 

Well I didn't say 2000 was proof that he wouldn't do it. Just showing that it is quite possible that he won't maintain the 60 homer binge that everybody thinks he will. History is against him. No baseball player as ever come close to averaging that many homers over that long of a period. No human being as come close to averaging 60 homers a season for 7 seasons. When Sammy starts getting up there in age his body will slow down or even break down. Will he be able to play 160 games year in year out? I don't know. McGwire couldn't, Bonds couldn't, and Griffey has not either.

 

You statement about if Sosa averages 60 homers a year for the next three years basically mirrors mine. A wait and see approach. Right now anything can happen. Sosa gets hurt, they expand the strike zone, deaden the ball, move hitters further away from the plate, so forth, and so forth. Heck look at Ted Williams he lost at least 150 homers because of wars. You never know. I think if Sosa is within 100 homers and he is under 38 he will do it. possibly.

 

 

 

 

Caution is the word of the day.

[Sammy Who]

He hit those HR's b/c he was on the juice. I'm sure that if there was no drug testing he'd still hit 50-60 HR's a year.

[Warpticon]

He hit those HR's b/c he was on the juice. I'm sure that if there was no drug testing he'd still hit 50-60 HR's a year.

 

That certainly explains his lack of 50-60 HRs the past two years when there was no testing.

[David]

I still say that his the start of his decline stemmed from the Torres fastball to the head. Ever since then, his numbers have dropped.

 

He moved off the plate and no longer could hit pitches on the outside corner.

 

In April of 2003, Sammy posted a 1.019 OPS (granted, not a significant sample size)... thereafter, outside of a monster July, his numbers really declined.

 

Still, he ended up with a .911 OPS that year, which would be great by anyone else's standards.

[cubbieinexile]

The thing about the beaning is that if it affected him it took awhile for it to happen, which doesn't really make sense.

 

In the bext 5 games he goes he goes 7 for 20. The real culprit to that year was him going on the DL with the bad toe. Once that problem clears up he was back, take a look at his splits for June, July and August. They were very good.

 

I don't think it was the beaning but that he was getting old and his body recovering as fast as it used too. By 2002 Sosa was showing that he was slowing down and he was taking more time off.

[GaryWoods]

At the time, I didn't think the beaning had anything to do with Sammy's decline for the reasons CIE mentioned.

 

But I watched an Oriole game the other night. Sammy was flailing at pitches on the outside corner that he used to drive to right field. He didn't seem to have any trouble getting around on the ball; the problem was that he was standing farther back off the plate than he used to, and stepping to toward third when he swung.

 

These are things I would expect from somebody who was gunshy from a beaning. But why it would take months or even years to manifest itself doesn't make sense. Maybe he's had a couple more close calls since then that have scared him? I don't know, but it's sad.

[JC]

I still say that his the start of his decline stemmed from the Torres fastball to the head. Ever since then, his numbers have dropped.

 

My suspicions about Sosa notwithstanding, I agree with this to the extent that it didn't receive the attention it should have. After all, he was hit so hard that Sosa's helmut shattered. When is the last time we've seen that?

[iamnotsteve]

He does stand a good 12 feet off the plate these days. He's a scared man.

[GaryWoods]

I still say that his the start of his decline stemmed from the Torres fastball to the head.

 

It just hit me that Sosa was hit in the head by Solomon Torres, and Dickie Thon was hit in the head by Mike Torrez.

 

Coincidence? I think.....................well, yeah, it probably was.

[David]

At the time, I didn't think the beaning had anything to do with Sammy's decline for the reasons CIE mentioned.

 

But I watched an Oriole game the other night. Sammy was flailing at pitches on the outside corner that he used to drive to right field. He didn't seem to have any trouble getting around on the ball; the problem was that he was standing farther back off the plate than he used to, and stepping to toward third when he swung.

 

These are things I would expect from somebody who was gunshy from a beaning. But why it would take months or even years to manifest itself doesn't make sense. Maybe he's had a couple more close calls since then that have scared him? I don't know, but it's sad.

 

It could also be that it was the league, or the pitchers, that took a while to expose it. Once they realized how far off the plate he was and that he could no longer hit the outside pitch, they started pitching him away, away, away, and away... (like they used to, back before he started hammering that pitch to RF in 98 or so)...

 

Just a theory...