NSB Cubs Top 25 Prospects 2017

[toonsterwu]

Okay, color me mildly surprised. Let's leave rankings aside for a moment - I'm mildly curious why everyone is so down on Bryan Hudson, enough so that I feel like I might end up being the high man on him after feeling like I was the low man on him last winter (based on recollection, I think I had him lumped with Steele). I certainly didn't follow things as closely this year, so maybe I missed something.

 

This is what I'm looking at (after a very quick perusal of Hudson articles to see if I missed anything) -

 

a) The Hudson drafted, IIRC, was a tall, lanky athlete whose fastball sat in that 86-89 range. There were a couple reports of the FB topping out in the 90's, but when the majority of reports were in one range, I tend to think that's where he sat. He had a plus curve, basically your typical high school change (could throw it but it wasn't much). There were clear mechanical issues he needed to work on, along with command.

 

b) I know this is his 2nd year in the system, but it was his age 19 season, still very young and still physically maturing. I know a couple reports popped up in instructs of him in what, 90-93 range, but keep in mind the workload/opportunity that the kids have in instructs. Several years back, one of the Latin arms ... maybe it was Wellington Cruz or Luis Liria ... had his fastball jump in instructs because of workload and usage, only for those numbers to settle down. Last report I saw in the summer had him in that 88-91 range, which would seem to show some firming up of the fastball. By most accounts, that curve is still there. There was an article on milb late in the year about Hudson working through his mechanics and taking that to the field, and there was another article about him trying to use the change more.

 

____

 

I don't think his ceiling is particularly off the walls crazy good. I think best case scenario is a notch above mid-rotation, but he has more of the makings of your typical "mid-rotation" lefty ceiling, which is obviously rather valuable. He's also such a tall hurler, and these guys take time to develop, particularly when they are that young. He is, by most accounts, still physically maturing. I may be rationalizing a bit ... but I just don't see the necessity to be hugely concerned yet. Can it be said that 2017 is a big year for him? Sure, age 20, likely full season ball, he's gotta show improved mechanical consistency, which would hopefully lead to improved command. I'm just not ready to be hugely disappointed.

 

If any of the above is wrong, particularly about what he is now ... okay. I stand corrected. That said, the Cubs were high on the athletic Hudson, and while I didn't particularly love the throwing of money towards Hudson at the time, I just don't see significant cause for concern yet when all the warning signs for slow development were out there.

[Donzo]

This is a transition year for the system. In the last two years, it graduated a lot of top talent and it just lost a top 10 - 20 prospect (probably higher after the AFL), in a late season trade. Time to regroup.

 

The good news is it appears there's quite a bit of developing talent in the lower levels. We'll see how it shakes out.

 

1. Eloy: Clearly the top prospect. Probably has the highest ceiling in the system and the best chance to approach it.

 

2. Happ: The only top prospect above A ball. His skillset is excellent, but with that glaring weakness with strikeouts.

 

3. Candelario: I don't know what to make of him. For some reason, I'm thinking he' an AAAA player... No particular reason why. Hope I'm wrong.

 

After that, it really is a bunch developing prospects. Next year will clear this up... Myself, I like Clifton more than most. I like how he ended so strong in high-A at a young age, 20/21, and has been healthy. I see his stuff eventually developing and translating to success in higher levels.

[CubsWin]

This is a transition year for the system. In the last two years, it graduated a lot of top talent and it just lost a top 10 - 20 prospect (probably higher after the AFL), in a late season trade. Time to regroup.

Great to see some new posters in the minor league forum!

 

Yeah, it's good to know there's at least one stud in the system in Jimenez. The big league club is stocked so there's ample time to build the next coming waves.

 

Think of it, the Cubs added Contreras, Edwards, Almora and Zastryzny last season and all performed well. On top of that, they turned Vogelbach and Blackburn into a long term asset in Montgomery. The year before it was Bryant, Russell and Schwarber, and 2014 saw Hendricks, Soler and Baez make their debuts. Come on. That's not fair.

 

It will be a while before there's another 3-4 man wave of talent the likes of those guys, but the cupboard's far from bare. Candelario is knocking on the door but there's simply no room at the inn. If keeps hitting in AAA like he did last year (.333/.417/.542 in about 300 PAs), that 23-year-old, switching-hitting 3B with improved defense (by the latest reports) will make a solid trade chip. Next up would be Zagunis, Happ, Clifton, Caratini and possibly Underwood if he can turn things around and stay healthy. That's not a bad group of prospects in AAA & AA.

 

But it's the high-ceiling guys at the lower levels that will be fun to watch develop in this time of regrouping, as you called it. De La Cruz, Paulino and Eddy Martinez will all be 22 by opening day, but Jimenez, Cease, Paredes, Albertos, Wilson, Hudson, Sepulveda, Moreno, Assad, Palma, Marquez, Ocampo, Carrera, Ademan, Sierra, Amaya, Perlaza, Morel, O. Nunez, Garcia and Narea are all currently 20 years old or younger, in most cases much younger and all worth following.

 

This should be fun...

[craig]

....Think of it, the Cubs added Contreras, Edwards, Almora and Zastryzny last season and all performed well. On top of that, they turned Vogelbach and Blackburn into a long term asset in Montgomery. The year before it was Bryant, Russell and Schwarber, and 2014 saw Hendricks, Soler and Baez make their debuts. Come on. That's not fair.

 

It will be a while before there's another 3-4 man wave of talent the likes of those guys, but the cupboard's far from bare. .....

 

Nice post, Win. Helpful (for me at least) to keep some perspective.

 

An amazing thing has been that so many of the graduates have been good. When we had all these top prospects a couple of years ago, I would often tell myself "Yeah, but you know prospects fall off; you know a lot of these guys won't actually work out for whatever reason." But here we are, and almost everybody IS working out variably well, even guys like Vogelbach and Zastryzny; and a Contreras is working out WAY better than I ever imagined. A guy like Hendricks is working out WAY better than any of us thought to dream.

 

The only guy who's kinda disappointed has been Soler. And that's me being disappointed with a .769 OPS and OPS+ 105, with lots of space to do much better in future.

 

Maybe the hit-rate has been pure luck/coincidence. But the astonishing hit-rate with our prospects may speak to the Cubs Way? Perhaps we'll continue to have unexpected success with prospects? Maybe our development process really is that good, and the types of guys that they bring into the system are that coachable and improve-able? Obviously it won't be the same when our top picks are in the 30's versus in the top 2-4-6-10 range. But if they can frequently get the best out of the talent they've got, it could be pretty nice.

[CubsWin]

Maybe the hit-rate has been pure luck/coincidence. But the astonishing hit-rate with our prospects may speak to the Cubs Way? Perhaps we'll continue to have unexpected success with prospects? Maybe our development process really is that good, and the types of guys that they bring into the system are that coachable and improve-able? Obviously it won't be the same when our top picks are in the 30's versus in the top 2-4-6-10 range. But if they can frequently get the best out of the talent they've got, it could be pretty nice.

For me, the hit-rate with the Cubs prospects of late is more due to well above average instruction, philosophy (Cubs Way) and scouting. There's a reason why Jason McLeod is so highly sought after. It also has a lot to do with the higher draft picks they've had though we've seen guys like Zastryzny and Contreras really turn things around in their development so there's evidence of instruction/scouting with them, certainly. Baez is another piece of evidence supporting instruction and philosophy. I strongly believe he's not the player he is today under the previous front office.

 

There's more reason than ever to be hopeful for currently under-performing guys like Underwood or Hudson or Steele to turn things around and for top prospects with some doubts like Happ, Clifton, Candelario to continue to progress. Baez and Almora have developed at slower rates than some of their college drafted teammates, but they haven't plateaued at all. The philosophy and instruction continues on at the major league level which is doubly encouraging.

 

Probably due to the decades of following Cubs prospects under several previous regimes, I'd come to believe that the attrition rate for prospects was a hard-and-fast rule, but Jason McLeod and the rest of the scouting and development staff have changed my mind. This group is simply better than most of the rest of the league.

[Donzo]

Donzo, I am liking that first sentence in the Happ comment. I never thought about it that way, but he is. I might agree on Candelario because he lacks power and premium bat speed. There's definitely a part of me that feels I will give him three because it's easiest to.

 

Yeah, it is what it is. With so many graduations, it's time to regroup. But, obviously, some other non elite prospects will help this year.

 

Zastryzny could be huge this year if continues what he showed last year and I very well could be selling Candelario short. I saw him play last year and he looked overmatched to me, like almost all young rookies would in a July call up. As you specifically pointed out, I just don't see the tools/talent of a regular MLB player, like I do with Jimenez and Happ.

 

Saying that, what do I know?!? I thought Kelton and Vitters were gonna be stars, so it's a plus for Candelario that I don't think all that much of him- 8-) ... A guy I talk to about prospects loves Candelario. He said when he's comfortable, his bat speed is a plus. Here's a videohe sent me- this takes some talent.

 

[Donzo]

Great to see some new posters in the minor league forum!

 

Yeah, it's good to know there's at least one stud in the system in Jimenez. The big league club is stocked so there's ample time to build the next coming waves.

 

 

I wouldn't call me new, I'm recycled...

 

I think following the minors will be fun this year, a lot of guys to keep an eye on.

[Donzo]

Link to Cubs top 20 from Sickles: Cubs Top 20 from Jon Sickels (SB Nation)

 

Clifton ahead of Happ- interesting...

[craig]

Sickels still includes Underwood at #9.

He also still includes Almora; has Almora, who may very well be the Cubs primary CF next year, at #5, behind Clifton and Happ.

 

I'll be curious to see the comments and discussion as those go forward.

 

He includes Hedges in his top-20: mentions his heavy sinker being as high as 94. Will be interesting to get a little more scouting on some of the less well-reported guys.