BA's 2016 League Top 20s

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No AZL Cubs in their top 20 AZL prospects. I asked about Paredes and Albertos in the chat.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Navin (Pasadena, CA): I was a bit surprised to not see Isaac Paredes make the top 20. Was he or any other Cub in the discussion? Thank you!

 

Bill Mitchell: Cubs infielder Isaac Paredes was considered and I wrote a full report on him when considering candidates for the second half of the list. Observers loved his hit tool and he showed good actions at shortstop. The biggest knock on Paredes is his conditioning. He may only be 17, but he’s got an older body and needs to make a commitment to getting in better shape. If that happens, then he may be this year’s guy that I’ll regret not making room for on the list. If he’s in better shape next year, I could see him skipping the Northwest League altogether and breaking camp with the South Bend team (where he ended 2016) just like fellow countryman Carlos Sepulveda did this season. Long term he’s not a shortstop but the bat will fit elsewhere in the infield. Another Cubs player who got some consideration was right-handed pitcher Erling Moreno, who also just missed the cut.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): I know he only made one start before being shut down but the Internet hype seemed to match the stats for that Jose Albertos start. Thankfully, it sounds like he's healthy for the Instructional League. What are your thoughts on Albertos?

 

Bill Mitchell: I’ll take another Cubs question about right-handed pitcher Jose Albertos. After his AZL start in the first week of the season, when he touched 98, I was already saving a slot in the top 10 for the 17-year-old from Mexico. In addition to a plus fastball, Albertos has some pitching smarts. I could see him moving quickly assuming he comes back healthy.

 

Josh (Bismarck): Did you get to see Tyson Miller, Bailey Clark, or Dakota Mekkes at all? If so, any early thoughts on them?

 

Bill Mitchell: I got brief looks at each Cubs pitcher during their short AZL stays, with Clark, the 5th rounder from Duke, standing out among that trio. But Mekkes, taken in the 10th round from Michigan State, is sure an interesting guy. He’s a huge person and likely a pretty intimidating presence to a batter. Not an overpowering fastball (92-94 when I saw him), but it plays up because of his size. As a reliever, he’ll likely move faster than Miller and Clark.

 

Malik (Brooklyn): I saw the Cubs play and Javier Assad and Johnny Pereda stood out big time while watching. Just curious if you see the same thing as I did.....Assad has mid rotation upside and Pereda is a raw but highly toolsy C, that's very intriguing.

 

Bill Mitchell: Javier Assad is one of my sleepers who fell short of the top 20 but is an interesting one to follow. The fastball sits low-90s. Some scouts saw a decent curveball while others a slider that more closely resembled a cutter. Like I mentioned earlier in the chat about Isaac Paredes, Assad needs to work on conditioning and get in better shape.

[craig]

Thanks for BA comments, cal.

[craig]

Tom, couple thoughts:

1. Paredes: The tool for making contact and not striking out is the first tool for a player.

*Defense and power also help to differentiate a Russell from a LaStella.

*I wonder what he's got in those areas?

*Defense: That the league managers, Mitchell, Phil, and Arguello uniformly don't seem to project him as a SS suggests that the defense may not be flashy, presumably more 3B/2b than SS.

*Most good defensive 2B/3B were once SS's, so I'm hopeful that his defense will be an asset in the infield, even assuming he doesn't stick at SS.

*Baez and Russell were both guys with bigger/stronger body-shapes than traditional SS, who back at age 18 were projected to move off due to body configuration. Wrongly so, as we now know. So hopefully the same will prove out for Paredes.

*That said, even amateur viewers like Az Phil and Mitchell saw the SS defense immediately stand out strongly for Baez and Gleyber. Doesn't seem the same for Isaac. If he looked notably good as a defensive SS, I think the managers and Mitchell would have noticed, and gotten him into the top-20.

*Power: I also think that Mitchell and a lot of coaches/managers tend to watch BP. I'm guessing if Paredes had exciting BP-power, again he'd not be missing the list. So, I'm guessing his present BP power isn't noteworthy.

*Still, I'm hoping that he's young enough and well built enough, and 6-feet isn't too short for a lot of guys who hit with power, that some HR's might come in future.

*Obviously being able to hit the ball on the nose often is crucial to power, so perhaps the gift of contact combined with hopefully average raw power will still produce solid HR numbers, as opposed to LaStella/Theriot/Barney.

*Certainly his XBH would suggests reasonable power.

 

2. Assad lists at 6'2", he's the longest of the Mexicans. There are plenty of high-end hitters who are 6'0", and perhaps it's easier to have a compact swing. But the frequency of high-end pitchers at 5'11" and 6'0" is modest, obviously with some exceptions.

*So I agree, Tom, that being a stocky short-ish hitter is very different from being a short, stocky pitcher with short levers.

*This is why I'm relatively guarded on Carrera (5'10") and Garcia (6'0").

*There are exceptional guys who are short and effective. Hopefully one of our short guys will be one of those exceptions.

 

3. Stats/age: Young-for-league is such a value, particularly for teenagers, in part because for certain body configurations the guy is likely to continue to fill out and add strength, either velocity or power.

*That possibility may be reduced if a guy is already filled out at 17?

*I think Tseng was an example, his stats/age at age 19 were quite impressive. But he was already filled out physically when he signed, had nothing to add. And his 3-pitch repertoire was already rather advanced, so he didn't have a ton to add there either.

*Very different from a guy like Perez. Inexperienced, so his repertoire and command is completely undeveloped. Undeveloped physically, so his strength will change.

[craig]

With Paredes, the Cubs scout who signed him described him as a potential 5 tool guy. That means both the power and fielding stood out for him. ..... He definitely has the arm for SS too as there's the tweet about him hitting 92 on the mound in 2014 at 14/15. The Cubs have a good recent history with these bulky SSs obviously with Baez/Russell, but also Gleyber .... To me, Paredes is in that group where he's a SS, if not then 2B with 3B being kind of the last resort - same as those guys and most SS prospects for me. Given all other info, the body is something I'll wait on since it could just be a matter of healthy baby fat on a body that will lean out. Right now I see his pedigree as a former two way player who did so on an international level early as a SS/P, went pro as a teen in his home country, came here only to instantly hit and readily consider him one of the best athletes in the system.

 

From what I can tell - Carrera has a different body type from either Assad or Garcia, both are stocky while Carrera is lean. I'd take Assad over Garcia easily since Assad had a (much) better K rate at a higher league at the same age, Garcia was also repeating the DSL, and is listed smaller. Ranking them on upside I'd go Carrera, Assad, and then a gap before Garcia right now. Ranking them on polish I'd probably give Assad the edge over the other two.

 

ARL for me matters most when the player is performing well and also is more valuable at lower levels than higher ones. That's why I'm not an Almora fan, at least in the "the Cubs should give this guy a starting job" capacity, but am very high on someone like Paredes already.

 

Carrera is 5'10"; what do you have on him that gives him higher upside than the tall decent-velocity Assad? I don't recall much-if-any scouting on him, other than the stats which show excellent control.

 

Thanks for the "5-tool" scouting on Paredes. That's helpful and meaningful and encouraging. Yeah, the arm is good. I agree, that having a guy who's pretty good SS but can be an excellent 2B is often a high value. The power, of course, is crucial. Part of power is having the levers and bat speed and exit velocity, all that stuff. But a lot of HR's is based on skill and vision. A lot of light-tower BP guys rarely hit them in games. And a lot of the game HR's are by guys with unexceptional raw power but guys who are more frequently able to apply the power they do have and drive the ball. So, if indeed he's a very good contact hitter, he may hit more HR's than guys with more BP-power.

 

Hope he developed well, and we see solid defense and good HR-power down the road.

 

Like you, I'm not worried about the "fitness" bit. A couple of Arguello pictures included Paredes this week. He's a thicker guy with thick legs, but he doesn't look overweight to me. If he's built more like Gleyber and Baez than like the other SS's in instrux, that doesn't seem prohibitive. Just may provide stronger legs for hitting. May entail slower legs for base running, or perhaps for defensive range.

[craig]

Thanks, Tom. Heh heh, we go with what we've got at the time. We'll get more info as time goes by.

 

I was very surprised that Paredes didn't make that list. Usually the ASL isn't a super big league or a super deep league, since most college draft picks never factor on those lists. But at the same time, it's a really difficult league because each team carries long rosters, guys are coming and going from the draft and on up to short-season, and it really is instructional, so I think a lot of the pitchers are doing a lot of their work outside of games, so the sample size for the other managers and Mitchell tends to be modest.

 

So, no top-20.

*But Allesandro would have been top 10

*Paredes was just off the list.

*Moreno was just off the list.

*Assad didn't miss by a lot.

 

And so much is projection. Who's going to get stronger and faster, who's going to add velocity, who's going to learn control, who's going to learn to hit a curve. Who knows.

[CubsWin]

Trevor Clifton didn't just start performing well this year so much as more people started to take him more seriously.

Well, he did have vast improvements across the board this season.

 

K% 2015 - 22.3%, 2016 - 26.2%

BB% 2015 - 10.2%, 2016 - 8.3%

FIP 2015 - 3.94, 2016 - 3.05

HR/9 2015 - 0.58, 2016 - 0.30

K/BB 2015 - 2.19, 2016 - 3.15

ERA 2015 - 3.98, 2016 - 2.72

WHIP 2015 - 1.27, 2016 - 1.16

 

His BABIP went up 13 points from 2015 (.287 to .300) but his BAA went down from .226 to .219.

 

There were plenty of reasons to be high on him before, but he certainly took a step forward this season and proved a lot of his detractors wrong for the time being.

[craig]

Well yeah, the guys who already perform well are the ones most likely to take a step forward/breakout.

 

Tom, I agree in large part with this. There's something of the "rich-get-richer" aspect. Guy who already has good arm, even a little improvement can increase that separation from the norm. A guy who's already got good command can more easily introduce new pitches and refine them. A guy who already has a very repeatable delivery can more easily eliminate the inconsistencies and improve command, etc..

 

But by "perform well", what are you mostly factoring? FIP? K-rate? K-BB? I have no system, but look at all of that kind of stuff.

*Faustino had a very pedestrian K-rate, in the 6's only.

*Garcia's wasn't that hot either. 7.4. His walk-rate was really low, though, so his K/BB was strong.

*Ocampo had a solid K-rate, but his walk-rate was terrible.

*Clifton had a poor walk-rate at Boise.

 

For me:

1. I think I tend to look at K-rate for present "stuff", and figure that BB's can be variably reduced with time.

2. I think BB's as a manifestation of control problems can be reduced with time. (Clifton's made massive reduction in his walk-rate, which is a huge factor; but I also assume the reduction in walks also manifests a tremendous improvement in command and location. it's remarkable to me, actually, how much that improved by the end of the season.) But I also always wonder with "wild" guys. For a lot, a guy who struggles with control and fastball control when he's 18 might always have issues.

3. K-rate reflects present stuff. But I think guys can develop good pitches over time. Maybe this summer Yunior Perez threw little but fastballs (beats me). But he's got lots of years ahead to work on grip. Seven years from now, he might have added all three of slider/cutter/change, even if he may not have any of those in more than rudimentary form now. Most K's come on off-speed movement. So guys who throw fast and can control their fastball now, that doesn't preclude developing the support pitches in time. (Perez is a guy I'm hoping all of that happens with.)

4. I'm pretty interested in size. de la Cruz got bigger and stronger. Arguello said that Brailyn Marquez looks bigger and stronger, impressive size. Eloy the hitter got much bigger and stronger physically from two summers ago. Yunior Perez lists at 6'4" 190; maybe he'll be an Edwards, but fair chance that when he's 21 he'll be a lot bigger and stronger.... and maybe faster as well. Clifton is an example, he's filled out a lot since he was drafted, and my understanding is that consistent fastball velocity has increased accordingly.

*The size factor is significant in my book, which is one of the reasons why I'm hesitant to assume that Faustino and Garcia have the same capacity to improve their stuff that Perez and Marquez have.

[CubsWin]

Well yeah, the guys who already perform well are the ones most likely to take a step forward/breakout.

If a 3.94 FIP and a 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio is performing well, then yes. Probably just semantics, to each their own.

 

For me, Clifton is a prime example of the toolsy, raw prospect who made good (at least thus far). FIPs of 4.31 and 3.94 and BB/9 of 4.43 and 3.89 the previous two seasons aren't all that encouraging in my book. He had a lot to prove, but I was hopeful given the reports. The potential was there with his athleticism and decent velocity.

 

By his own admission, he was a thrower not a pitcher, but that all changed this season. He went from being regarded as a still unproven, raw arm with control problems and questions about his ability to remain a starter in 2015 to pitcher of the year in the Carolina League this year.

 

It was really gratifying to see him come through like that.

[CubsWin]

I have no system. I'm too liberal artsy for a system, they're limiting after a while. Generally I like KATOH's principles....I value Ks most early by far, walks are whatever until AA/AAA where future role is becoming more clear, I value size early on too but like ARL it matters most when the player is doing well, and obviously I value things like health, especially avoiding the major surgeries, and background.

 

- Carrera's K rate (19%) was above the DSL average (18%)

- Garcia's was better (21%), my knock on him is more that he had to repeat the league

- Ocampo did what Garcia in K rate did but was younger, bigger, and not repeating

- Yunior Perez was below league at 17.3%

 

The three I'm most optimistic about is Marquez (21% K rate), Carrera, and Ocampo. Ocampo physically reminds me of Matt Garza. Carrera has a CJ Wilson thing going. Marquez is a ??? but he's doing everything right on paper so far.

I, too, lean more heavily on the stats you talked about.

 

For me, though, the younger the prospect and lower the level, the less meaningful the stats are. The level of competition is so much lower than the upper levels it can be tough to get a read on just what those numbers mean. Plus, the players are often still growing and have so much development left that, if they're not doing great at a young age but have projectability, there's still plenty of time for them to improve.

 

One example is Oscar De La Cruz who was an unheralded IFA signing ($85,000) who got hit around pretty good in his first stint in the DSL. But he was a 6'4" body, certainly projectable and still very young. The next season, repeating in the DSL, he really improved and broke out.

 

Still, I'm with you, I'll take performance over non-performance any day of the week.

[craig]

1. Agree, Clifton is an example of a raw projection guy, who has developed very nicely to this point. Scouts projected possibilities for him from the start.

*That said, he had K's from the start. If K's are a significant indicator, as Tom and I have suggested, from that sense Clifton "performed" from the start.

*K/BB is very different; walks can be refined/reduced... sometimes. Clifton has improved predominantly by lowering the denominator! (Kerry Wood is an example of a great prospect who had blah K/BB because he was so wild, early on. When he got the walks down to manageable level, he took off.)

 

2. de la Cruz had good K's even in his first little sample. Which was only 11 innings anyway. In his first full summer, his numbers were excellent. (Although being 19 in the DSL, with a 64K/75IP ratio, wasn't that age/league exceptional, even though his K/BB and ERA were very good.)

 

3. Each prospect develops individually and uniquely. Case by case.

 

4. K's is an excellent but imperfect indicator. Samardzija had two >9K/9IP seasons in majors, and 5 straight >8. A very strong stuff/strikeout guy in the majors. But in the minors, it was 5, 4, 5, all while always being old-for-league. Scouting/velocity always knew he had a good fastball; but you don't K people with the fastball, you K with off speed. He was trial-and-erroring with breaking stuff until he finally settled into something. It happens.

 

5. I think stats are more predictive for hitters than pitchers. Hitters get stronger and add power, absolutely. But I don't believe the hitting tools change tremendously. If a guy's vision and mental processing just aren't good at processing fast-moving pro-pitching, I don't think you "learn" that with experience. Think that's mostly inherent. Yes, strategy and approach can improve; yes a guy can build up muscle and become able to clear the fences at 24 when he wasn't strong enough at 18; yes a guy can kind of learn to go the opposite way, or learn to pull the ball. So sure, there's lots of development possible. But usually, if a guy isn't very gifted at making contact at age 19, he's not going to be very good at 24. (I've got my doubts whether DJ Wilson has the pure ability to hit....)

*Contreras may be as strong a counter-example as I can ever remember in the Cubs system.

 

But pitchers, they are more changeable. You can tweak a delivery; you can work to make the delivery more uniform between different pitches, so that hitters can't "tell" whether it's fastball or off speed; a guy who didn't have a cutter can often add one, to great effect; a guy who didn't have a change can work at it and eventually perhaps have it click and become an effective pitch. I think if you've got velocity and the ability to command the fastball, over time you can sometimes develop and master some other pitches. I think it's much more common to see significant changes in how a pitcher profiles over time, than for a hitter.

*Heh heh, did I ever mention that I love the cutter? :)

[Brickhouse]

Meanwhile Duane Underwood supposedly had/has all these tools, hasn't really do anything with them on the field as a pro...

He's had a 2.50 ERA as a 19-year-old in the MWL and a 2.58 ERA as a 20-year-old in High-A. He lowered his opponent's batting average from .231 to .202 in those same years. He had a WHIP of 1.20 and 1.04 and got more ground ball outs over the same time frame (1.30 which is already pretty good to 1.46 in 2015). The main thing that he hasn't done well is strike people out and stay healthy, but the numbers he put up in 2014 and 2015 were well above average, weren't they? And he was years young for his level, wasn't he?

 

I don't know as much as most people that post here and injuries and low strikeouts are definitely concerning, but to say he hasn't done anything good as a pro is just not accurate, is it?

[davell]

He's not a nothing. He's got good stuff and he's still young. My guess is we wind up converting him to the pen. Possibly even during 2017, especially if he struggles in AA again or can't stay healthy. But, from a talent standpoint, he's still pretty high as far as what we've got from a pitching standpoint.

 

I'd put Cease, De La Cruz, and Clifton ahead of him for sure. But, after that, its iffy. Health would drop him behind a few others, but its because of that and not talent related.

[Brickhouse]

He's not a nothing. He's got good stuff and he's still young. My guess is we wind up converting him to the pen. Possibly even during 2017, especially if he struggles in AA again or can't stay healthy. But, from a talent standpoint, he's still pretty high as far as what we've got from a pitching standpoint.

 

I'd put Cease, De La Cruz, and Clifton ahead of him for sure. But, after that, its iffy. Health would drop him behind a few others, but its because of that and not talent related.

I agree that he's dropped in his prospect ranking. Last year was a bad year for him, but to say he hasn't done anything good as a pro seemed odd.

[CubsWin]

If a 3.94 FIP and a 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio is performing well, then yes. Probably just semantics, to each their own.

 

As important as A ball FIP may be, I was thinking more the 22.3% K rate in a league with a 19.8% K rate.

Indeed. There were certainly telling markers with Clifton even when he wasn't performing well.

 

Stuff like age, age relatice to league, height, weight, times through the league, and other little things probably considered more scouting or not considered part of the performance mix are measured rather than scouted, they're numbers too. The problem with going just scouting at the lower levels is that a) there's not much public info on the vast majority of IFAs and b) it rarely matters if that guy is not performing. It's not often a guy goes from suck to solid or better without some kind of statistical indicator or obviously more than one.

Agreed. Age and age relative to league, heights and weights, etc. are numbers too. Just not performance related. I think we agree expanding beyond performance and putting numbers in context give a more clearer picture.

 

Never advocated "going just scouting at the lower levels", so we agree there, too. The problem is most if not all we get information wise is just the performance stats at those lower levels and the lower the level, the less meaningful they are. Because of the weaker competition, it's difficult to trust when a player performs well at the lower levels just what that means and whether they'll be able to do the same at advanced levels, plus the player is so undeveloped that if they did poorly, it doesn't tell us much there either.

 

That's why I'm with you, good performance is good performance and I'll take it no matter what the level.

[CubsWin]

Each prospect develops individually and uniquely. Case by case.

Once again, craig, you have crystalized my thoughts.

[davell]

Cease is 3, Galindo is 10, DJ Wilson is 13, and Chris Pieters is 16 for the NWL. Manuel Rondon was pitcher of the year, but wasn't ranked, so that doesn't look great for him.

[Johnny OHagan]

Plenty of mention of Eugene being a very pitcher friendly park. Wasn't aware of that tbh. Reference made to road splits for Galindo and Wilson.

 

Not the best comments in the chat on Hudson either.

[davell]

How many innings are needed to qualify for a BA list again? Paulino threw 35 for Eugene and I'm really, really finding it hard to believe he didn't make this list, if he were eligible for it.

 

His stats were great and AZPhil says he's throwing a 95MPH sinker to go with a hard slider. Was surprised on Rondon, considering how weak the list was, but if Paulino was eligible, I'd venture to say that's potentially an oversight.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cease is 3, Galindo is 10, DJ Wilson is 13, and Chris Pieters is 16 for the NWL. Manuel Rondon was pitcher of the year, but wasn't ranked, so that doesn't look great for him.

 

The actual reports:

 

3. Dylan Cease, rhp, Eugene (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 190. Drafted: HS—Milton, Ga., 2014 (6).

 

Cease was unquestionably one of the most electric arms in the NWL. He had Tommy John surgery just after the Cubs selected him, and this season was his first outside of the controlled environs of extended spring training and the Rookie-level Arizona League.

 

The results were encouraging. At his best, Cease showed off a fastball that sat in the high 90s and touched as high as 101 mph. His incredibly fast arm also generates a wipeout, downer curveball that’s another plus pitch at its best. He also throws an occasional changeup. That arsenal, however, was slightly mitigated by below-average command and control that stemmed from a tendency to lose his release point, as well as below-average life on his fastball.

 

Cease walked than 5.0 hitters per nine innings and quickly ran up high pitch counts, but he has excellent athleticism and some of the most electric stuff in the minors. He’ll have to improve his control to remain a starter.

 

10. Wladimir Galindo, 3b, Eugene (Cubs)

 

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 210. Signed: Venezuela, 2013.

 

Galindo has been a slow-burn prospect who has shown profile third-base tools with his power and arm strength. His nine home runs tied for second in the NWL, and he led the league with 32 extra-base hits despite playing his home games in PK Park, one of the minors’ least hitter-friendly venues. Galindo hit .305/.389/.611 with six homers and 31 RBIs in road games.

 

He has well above-average arm strength but will need to watch his body to make sure he doesn’t have to move to a corner-outfield spot.

 

13. D.J. Wilson, of, Eugene (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-8. Wt: 177. Drafted: HS—Canton, Ohio, 2015 (4).

 

Signed for $1.3 million last year, Wilson was Eugene’s everyday center fielder and thrived away from the pitcher-friendly confines of his home park. At home, he recorded a .567 OPS compared with .829 on the road.

 

Wilson is a slash-and-burn type of hitter with a flat bat path that allows him to spray line drives. He has a bit of sneaky power as well. He’s mostly a pull hitter at present but worked diligently to adopt more of an all-fields approach.

 

Wilson will stick in center field with above-average speed and an effortless ability to run down balls in both gaps that recalls his days playing wide receiver in high school. His arm, however, is a tick below-average. His speed and defense could get him to the big leagues as a backup outfielder if his bat doesn’t pan out as expected.

 

16. Chris Pieters, 1b/of, Eugene (Cubs)

 

Age: 22. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 185. Signed: Curacao, 2011.

 

Pieters might have the most intriguing background of any of any NWL prospect. Signed out of Curacao in 2011 as a lefthanded pitcher, he recorded a 9.31 ERA in 77 innings before the Cubs gave him back a bat in 2015. He’s an athletic player who split his time between left field and first base and swiped 20 bags in 23 tries, which tied for fourth in the league.

 

NWL managers were impressed with Pieters’ ability to get the barrel to the ball, though his inexperience showed with 73 strikeouts, which tied for third most in the league. Others praised his smooth, flat bat path. He’s still a little rough defensively at first base but looks better when he lets his athleticism take over in the outfield. One manager even thought center field could be an option.

 

Pieters is 22 and will be Rule 5 draft eligible this offseason, but he has shown the tools to help him make up ground.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The chat:

 

J.P. (Springfield, IL): What does Bryan Hudson project as to you? Did he make a case for your list?

 

Josh Norris: He was a bit disappointing. Managers in the league saw a guy who had a hard time repeating his mechanics and stuff that ticked down a bit from extended spring training. He didn’t really get close to this list.

 

Bob (IL): Does Dylan Cease have a legitimate shot to be the Cubs first elite pitching prospect under Epstein?

 

Josh Norris: He does. He’s got absolutely electric stuff, for certain. If he harnesses it and learns how to command and control the ball, then he could very well be a top of the rotation type of pitcher. There’s a long way to go, though.

 

Jeff (Brooklyn): Was hoping for a better showing out of DJ Wilson. But he did turn it around somewhat in the second half. What do you see his upside being?

 

Josh Norris: His upside is a slash-and-burn type of hitter with the ability to play in center field. I also got to see him play in person this summer and was very impressed with him. One of the games I saw was a one-run affair, and he made a game-saving play. Shaded to his right, he ranged over quickly enough to cut a ball in the right-center gap and hold the hitter to a single and keep a run from scoring. It’s not a play you see often at the lower levels of the minor leagues. One thing evaluators would like to see from him is a more all-fields approach. He’s gotten better at it, but he was a little pull heavy this season.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's MWL list is out today. Eloy Jimenez was the only Cub on the list and WASN'T number 1. Nick Senzel got the top spot ( :roll: ): http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-midwest-league-top-20-prospects/#W8CBHhb2FqmjWAS7.97

 

2. Eloy Jimenez, of, South Bend (Cubs)

 

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 205. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013.

 

The Cubs invested $2.8 million to sign Jimenez out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, and he took a huge step forward this season in his first crack at full-season ball. He starred in both the MWL all-star game and Futures Game, hitting a home run in both, and took home MVP honors after leading the MWL with 40 doubles and a .532 slugging percentage. He ranked second with 81 RBIs and third with a .329 average.

 

Jimenez has plus raw power, with the ability to hit the ball out to any part of the park. His hit tool grades as above-average. He can be overly aggressive but has a solid two-strike approach. He has shown the aptitude to adjust to pitches on the outer half as well as offspeed pitches, though his pitch recognition will need to improve.

 

Jimenez is an average runner and average defender in left field who has gotten better jumps on balls this year. He could improve his average arm with better lower-half mechanics. He engages with teammates and the media and has rapidly improved his English skills.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Notes from the chat....

 

- Jimenez woulda/could a/shoulda been 1

- Paulino profiles as a reliever due to command

- Lara really likes Kellogg

- Sands has 3 average pitches according to chat

- Dewees gets a Damon comp in the chat. Seems lofty

 

Josh (Bismarck): Thanks for the chat! The Cubs have a bunch of lefties that appear to have some semblance of promise. Ryan Kellogg pitched well for SB this season. Jose Paulino did too in limited time and appears to have very solid stuff. Carson Sands and Justin Steele struggled, but were high bonus guys, so there's a bit of pedigree anyway. Thoughts on this group?

 

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yeah, it’s an interesting group. I really like Kellogg, but he’s difficult to project because he’s a big dude and doesn’t throw hard. Sands has three average pitches, but struggled with command this year; Steele has a little more in the tank in terms of fastball velocity, but doesn’t throw enough strikes. Paulino is a super-competitive guy with command problems as well. Fastball can get to 94-95 and the slider is average or maybe a chance at tick above.

 

David (Springfield): The Cubs' Jose Paulino had an outstanding showing in the Northwest League and was pretty good after being promoted to South Bend. Did he not get enough innings in either league to qualify? What kind of opinions did scouts and coaches have of him?

 

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I answered above, but he did not qualify for MWL. Most scouts felt he’s ultimately a reliever because of command issues and because the secondary pitches are lacking.

 

Jason M (Chicago): What Cub prospects were closest to being named to the list?

 

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: The closest guy for me was Donnie Dewees. I just really like the guy. He plays hard all the time—he was diving around the outfield for fly balls during BP at the Midwest League all-star game. He was compared to Johnny Damon as a guy who could develop power and he’s a 70 runner right now. I also really like Ryan Kellogg.

 

Jason M (Chicago): Vince, thanks for the chat! Recently, Cub fans have seen reports from Instructs that Jose Paulino is now one of the best pitching prospects in the system and may even get protected on the 40 man this winter. What were you hearing on him over the seasons second half?

 

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yeah, a little mixed on Paulino. Scouts like his competitiveness and his fastball was up to 94-95. But there’s concern about the command/control and his secondary pitches, which have a chance to be average.

 

Drew 60 (New York): Just How far away was Eloy Jimenez from being the number 1 prospect? Thanks

 

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: An inch? Haha. He was No. 1 in the first iteration, but Senzel has more certainty, less volatility. That said, in terms of ultimate impact, there is plenty of room for Eloy to be the GUY.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Carolina League top 20: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-carolina-league-top-20-prospects/#r8VwabgulCRz0ilc.97

 

4. Gleyber Torres

 

10. Ian Happ, 2b, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

 

Age: 22. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Cincinnati, 2015 (1).

 

Happ continued to show the strong hitting ability he had in college. He even earned a promotion to Double-A Tennessee, where he hit eight home runs in 248 at-bats.

 

Happ saw time in left field in addition to second base and has the arm strength to try third. He’s not adept or polished at second, though, committing seven errors in 50 games. He is universally regarded as a strong worker.

 

“He has tremendous plate discipline. He’s going to hit and hit for power,” Potomac manager Tripp Keister said.

 

12. Trevor Clifton, rhp, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

 

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 170. Drafted: HS—Maryville, Tenn., 2013 (12).

 

Clifton had a breakthrough season in winning the Carolina League pitcher of the year award. He proceeded to win a start in both rounds of the postseason, including a six shutout innings in the championship series against a stacked Lynchburg lineup.

 

“Clifton has put together a really solid year,” Lynchburg’s manager Mark Budzinski. “He has good command of three pitches and really knows how to pitch.”

 

Clifton’s fastball sits 93-95 mph and he backs it up with an improving curveball and changeup, giving him three potentially above-average pitches. Scouts and managers like the way Clifton attacked hitters and kept them off-balance, especially with his breaking pitches.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Carolina League chat:

 

Patrick (Fort Wayne, IN): Did Ryan McNeil of Myrtle Beach get any consideration for the top 20?

 

Lacy Lusk: He did get some consideration. There weren’t too many relievers mentioned, but he certainly stood out with his 61 Ks in 54 innings and his dominance in the back end of Myrtle Beach’s bullpen.

 

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Trevor Clinton got a really strong ranking, and I would have been surprised if he were higher, but - how close to the next trio of prospects (Fedde, Happ, Sheffield) was he?

 

Lacy Lusk: Stuff-wise (or tools-wise in Happ’s case), most people I talked to probably had him a tick behind that trio, but that could be underselling him. He had a fantastic year, for sure.