Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-18-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 4-3 Box Score

 

Tennessee lost 11-7 Box Score

 

Myrtle Beach Cancelled - Rain

 

South Bend won 6-4 Box Score

 

Eugene won their 14th consecutive game, 1-0 Box Score

 

AZL Cubs lost 6-2 Box Score

'

DSL Cubs 1 lost 5-2 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2 won 6-2 Box Score

[craig]

Candelario with a HR. It's his 12th, setting a new career high.

[ctcf]

Josh Norris of BA is at the Emeralds game. I can't post the tweets as I'm in the car but he seems quite enamored with DJ Wilson.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[craig]

Josh Norris of BA is at the Emeralds game. I can't post the tweets as I'm in the car but he seems quite enamored with DJ Wilson.

 

Man, Wilson has been really going well. Two doubles tonight, he's up to .271 now, and I think his OPS is around .750 now. Has really reduced his K-rate. Wouldn't have imagine that a month ago. With his arm/defense/speed, he's got some Heyward to him. *IF* the guy can hit, he could be quite good.

[craig]

Thanks for those tweets, Tom. His run/throw/defense sound really, really good.

 

Now he's gotten his average up to .271, and OPS to .753.

 

40K/3HR is not good, but his slugging isn't way short of .400, and he's 18XBH/47AB, so it's a hair over 1/3, not bad. He's not a groundout guy (0.79), so that's good.

 

For a while I had him totally off my top-20, when he was all K's/no-hits. But he's definitely played his way back up, way back up.

 

Hope he can finish strong.

[CubsWin]

Thanks for those tweets, Tom. His run/throw/defense sound really, really good.

 

Now he's gotten his average up to .271, and OPS to .753.

 

40K/3HR is not good, but his slugging isn't way short of .400, and he's 18XBH/47AB, so it's a hair over 1/3, not bad. He's not a groundout guy (0.79), so that's good.

 

For a while I had him totally off my top-20, when he was all K's/no-hits. But he's definitely played his way back up, way back up.

 

Hope he can finish strong.

Obviously Ks and BBs tend to drop when a player starts hitting everything in sight, so it's somewhat a question of chicken or egg (did he make an actual adjustment that led to seeing the ball better or a change in approach becoming more selective or is this just a hot streak and he could return to his previous ways), but since July 20th (his last 23 games), DJ's K% is 11.2% (10 Ks in 89 PAs). In that time he's hit, .413/.432/.625 (11 doubles & 2 HRs) with a .437 BABIP. Call it luck or increased hard contact, probably some combination of both, he may have figured something out.

 

From the beginning of the season up to July 20th (27 games) he K'd at a 25.4% rate (30 Ks in 118 PAs) and hit .158/.280/.238 with just 1 HR and a .214 BABIP. The fact that he's done better in the 2nd half (and not vice versa) supports the notion of actual development, but obviously the more data the better. One thing we do know is he hasn't slowed down yet.

 

When there's such a drastic improvement from 1st half to 2nd half and the player is so young in his first go around in a league, I tend to take the overall numbers with a grain of salt. I doubt Wilson is as good as his 2nd half numbers, but that 40 K/3 HR stat is likely misleading.

[CubsWin]

I don't think the K/HR is misleading because overall lines are misleading, but because the K/HR stat doesn't really tell you anything significant. Wilson's overall line is sexy given full context like age, league, position, and nailing predictive performance data (like the below league average by nearly 2.5℅ K rate).

I agree with you that the K/HR stat isn't all that telling, more so when the player is 19 than later on in his career. And I agree that the context is definitely on Wilson side here. (As it is with Almora but his numbers are more of a problem than Wilson's.)

 

But you may have oversimplified what I said about overall lines. In the case of extreme differences between 1st and 2nd halves where the 2nd half is much better and the player is young (and young for his league), the season long numbers can be misleading.

[craig]

...since July 20th (his last 23 games), DJ's K% is 11.2% (10 Ks in 89 PAs). In that time he's hit, .413/.432/.625 (11 doubles & 2 HRs) with a .437 BABIP. Call it luck or increased hard contact, probably some combination of both, he may have figured something out.

....up to July 20th (27 games) he K'd at a 25.4% rate (30 Ks in 118 PAs) and hit .158/.280/.238 ...

 

When there's such a drastic improvement from 1st half to 2nd half and the player is so young in his first go around in a league, I tend to take the overall numbers with a grain of salt. I doubt Wilson is as good as his 2nd half numbers, but that 40 K/3 HR stat is likely misleading.

 

Thanks, CubsWin. Yeah, wow, that's really dramatic. Almost unbelievable. Agree, obviously he's not going to sustain the 2nd half numbers, but that's becoming a decent sample size. And I'd agree, some kind of adjustment was made that's presumably more than random hot/cold oscillation. You'd think the second half might be a little more predictive.

 

My hypothesis is that the "flip" corresponded to dropped from leadoff to 9th. First-half, IsoD .128; second half, .019. So he's cut his IsoD to less than 1/6 what it was before.

 

"Speedy leadoff" model calls for guys to take pitches and be patient. Patient guys get to 2-strike counts, when pitchers throw breaking balls and guys whiff. And hitting .158 probably messes with your mind and it's a spiral.

 

Batting 9th, he probably felt free to swing at strikes, including first-pitch fastballs. Swing at better pitches to hit; start hitting; get comfortable and get your confidence back.

 

Northwest pitching isn't the greatest. If the adjustment is essentially to pick on early-count fastballs, that may not necessarily work up well. But, hopefully he will scale up just fine.

[craig]

...

His K rate is at 19.3% compared to a league average of a 21.6%, that's strong. League IsoSLG at .105, his IsoSLG at .138. .....

 

Comparison to league norms is helpful. Still, not sure how informative. Being good relative a league that very rarely produces good major leaguers means only so much. High end prospects don't usually spend much time if any at Northwest League level. Good ones spend time in rookie, then skip up to full pretty quick. New draftees spend little time there. (Bryant, Scharber, Happ model).

 

Over the years, if you look at BA Top-10's for Northwest League, I'm sure most of the top-10 guys compared very favorably to the league, as you show Wilson doing. But VERY few NW-top-10 position guys become significant major-leaguers.

 

Hopefully Wilson will be an exceptions.

[CubsWin]

Generally speaking, the season long numbers paint the best picture and most of the error with them is human. There's just as much potential for Wilson's second half to mislead as his overall line, if not much more so, and held to his league's standards the overall line is strong anyway.

Generally speaking, of course. I was speaking rather specifically, though. Craig and I have both stated that Wilson is not going to maintain his 2nd half numbers as he progresses to the upper levels so I don't think anyone is being misled by them.

 

For young players who are still developing, if they show progression as the year goes on, I put a bit more weight on the production he had later on in the season. The same goes for if they got off to a hot start and finish the season with a consistently bad 2nd half. They either got stuck in some bad habits, got lucky in the 1st half or, in the case of players at more advanced levels, the league adjusted to them and they weren't able to adjust back.

 

DJ Wilson's case is an extreme example, of course, so I agree in most cases the season line will tell a more complete picture of what kind of player the prospect is. We all like to have fun with arbitrary end points but unless the sample size is large enough and the higher level of performance is consistent enough, those arbitrary points are just that. If DJ is able to continue this level of production through the rest of this season, I'd say those numbers carry even more weight and make his 1st half numbers less relevant.

 

Interestingly, the most extreme example of a season long line being the most intensely predictive involved a different Willson. In Willson Contreras' breakout year in AA, there were no arbitrary end points. He was consistently that good all year long. He never had a bad week, much less month. He started out great and kept on being great and then got better. Even though it was a complete aberration in comparison to the rest of his career, it was so consistently good that it made everything that came before basically irrelevant. You can't be that consistently good all year at an advanced level like AA and not be for real.

 

I'd never seen anything like it, and I doubt I ever will again.

[CubsWin]

Straight up, Almora's numbers offensively aren't impressive this year if the thought is that he's going to take some kind of leap forward that is not luck based.

If we look at his numbers without any context, I totally agree. He likely has an uphill road to be an above average hitter at the major league level, especially when you look at the numbers he put up this year in a vacuum. But when I fold in the facts that he was 22, the 2nd youngest player in his league and in his first go around in AAA, his numbers become less of a ceiling and more of a floor. When you add in his defensive quality and the up the middle position he plays, his offensive numbers take on even greater context as to the quality of major leaguer he can become.

 

The biggest problem for him is that he had the same problem this year (very low walk rate) that he's had throughout his career. The fact that he did that again this year is troubling and predictive. He likely will always have a below average walk rate.

 

One more piece of context is his mental make-up and work ethic. Most prospects when they hit 22 or 23 are finishing up their development arc. But Almora, like Bryant, Schwarber and Russell, is unlike most prospects. The Cubs FO put an emphasis on a player's make-up when making their selections and prospect acquisitions. I fully expect Bryant, Russell and Schwarber (even Baez to a lesser extent) to continue to improve because of having well above average qualities in that area. Those guys are not only more talented than most prospects, but their make-up is better than most prospects as well which tends to lengthen their developmental arc.

 

Each of those players are different hitters. Almora is a lesser one in some respects, but where they're similar is in their ability to continue to grow and get the most out of their potential. Bryant will likely continue to cut down his Ks and hit better situationally. Russell will likely move closer to being a .275/.355/.440 guy. Schwarber will likely hit better than the .246/.355 of his rookie season. We've already seen Baez reinvent himself as a hitter. It's a work in progress and I doubt he ever has an OBP much above .335 in his career, but he's improving every year. Given the sort of make-up characteristics that Almora reportedly shares with his fellow 1st round picks, he may be a lesser hitter, but he should continue to improve over the next few seasons.

 

Rightly or wrongly, I'm still excited to see what he can become, and I think if he improves it will have more to do with hard work than luck.

[CubsWin]

Very, very few players in most league top 10s become a significant major leaguer, which is why the stats are more valuable than the various rankings, especially league, in the long run. Even if you wanted to expand to level rather than league, Wilson's numbers are still strong, and comparing a player to his peers is just outright going to be more informative than picking and choosing stats at random or relying too heavily on league rankings. There are only so many Bryants and even Schwarbers in baseball, for the most part teams have to take a more hardline approach to find the future stars. Given that the Cubs are where they are, they'll be finding their future in house stars through tighter and harder analysis than guys like Bryant and Schwarber made it. Wilson's performance to date does not mean he's a stud yet or particularly close, but he's on the right track with a solid pace.

Very well said. I especially like looking at a player's statistics in relation to their league's (or level's) averages including that player's age. Again, well said.

[craig]

..I'm curious - how many MLers should a short season league be expected to produce? How much time does a typical high end prospect spend? How many guy skip? Are a top 2, top 5, and top 10 draft picks, all from college, the only standard? Very, very few players in most league top 10s become a significant major leaguer, which is why the stats are more valuable than the various rankings, especially league, in the long run. Even if you wanted to expand to level rather than league, Wilson's numbers are still strong, and comparing a player to his peers is just outright going to be more informative than picking and choosing stats at random or relying too heavily on league rankings. There are only so many Bryants and even Schwarbers in baseball, for the most part teams have to take a more hardline approach to find the future stars. Given that the Cubs are where they are, they'll be finding their future in house stars through tighter and harder analysis than guys like Bryant and Schwarber made it. Wilson's performance to date does not mean he's a stud yet or particularly close, but he's on the right track with a solid pace.

 

Very, very few. The Northwest League, and it's level, has one of the lowest good-major-leaguer-producing rates of any league, for guys who spend more than 100AB there. If you look over the years, the success rate for guys in the top-20/2nd-ten in the Midwest League or Florida State League is MUCH higher than looking at top-10 in the Northwest League. Teams just don't often keep big-league talent there very long. If you're talented enough to become a good major leaguer, you'll probably skip that level or play your way out pretty quick.

 

The league is populated by a lot of roster-fill guys. (True every league, which is why "young for league" is routinely deceptive. Perhaps better to compare to the actual big-league prospects in a league....) A lot of 3rd-day college draftees, who elevate the league age norms; and a lot of Latin guys who have been around for some years and may be youngish but are talent-limited.

 

I'm saying that Wilson's K-rate or OPS or slugging, relative to league, is solid, absolutely, and I hope he solidly improves and becomes good. I like him as a prospect, a lot. With all of his Heyward-like non-hitting qualities, he doesn't need to hit that great to be a useful player, and he may be on track to be good offensively too.

 

But I'm also saying that his stats, relative to league, is not that outstanding. It's not like he's several standard deviations from the norm or anything. Being 2% lower K-rate than league, this isn't like Almora or Vitters or Paredes. They are solid overall, and when the second-half numbers are considered those really stand out. But overall, being a little above-average while being a little young relative to a really weak league is of uncertain impressiveness.

 

I would also say that using top-10 lists versus stats-relative-to-league (age-factor included), that I suspect the "lists" have as good or better predictive success than the stats-relative-to-league (age-factor-included.) Neither is very precise, but I think the lists, factoring in performance and stats and tools-scouting, probably do OK, all things considered. And Wilson will rank well in those, because his non-hitting tools, run/throw/field, are really outstanding. If he could become an average big-league hitter, his other stuff might make his overall value well above average.

[craig]

1. He'll rank higher on "lists" than on stats. .745 OPS, >20% K-rate, 3 HR, those stats are a bit above average. It's the non-statistical scouting tools and the projection that stand out better, I think.

 

2. You make lists yourself. Nothing wrong with lists. But some are better than others, duh. No intelligent list will ignore stats. Just like no intelligent list will ignore age or, if information permits, some scouting. The more input the better, and the more intelligent the list will be. (For example, Katoh had some list with Amora ranked super high; I think that list was missing something somehow, and had him too high.)

 

3. We know the scouting on DJ is that his defense is really good, and the tools eval project that it should stay truly good. Lots of short-season middle guys won't be middle guys in the majors, or won't be good middle-defenders. But Wilson very much projects to be a true CFer, and a very good one, perhaps even relative to the high standard of big-league CF defense. It's significantly the scouting input on his defense/speed/arm that makes me as hopeful about him as I am, even though I don't really have stats to prove how his defense compares to some other short-season guy playing CF who might not at all project to actually end up playing good CF defense.

 

4. Majors are years away, at best, for Wilson, if he develops favorably. Hard to imagine the big-league landscape. But, just for fun: it is conceivable that Fowler will get resigned. If so, if Wilson percolates up the chain and develops beautifully, his graduation might conceivably sync semi-well with Folwer's next contract ending? It's also conceivable that Almora might be a significant player in the Cubs CF landscape at a time when Wilson might theoretically graduate. Wilson is lefty, Almora is righty. There could hypothetically be some "fit" there, too. Maybe a 3rd hypothetical might be Cubs covering CF for at least a while with some Heyward, perhaps supplemented with some Almora. Perhaps if Wilson was to develop beautifully, he might be able to merge into that landscape somehow, too.

 

Anyway, hope the kid develops into a tremendous center fielder and baserunner, and develops into a good hitter as well.

[CubsWin]

In context, Almora has been maybe an average PCL hitter. His OPS is .752, the league is .754, and even the typical Iowa Cubs player this year has put up a .768 OPS. He's done it with minimal secondary skills (below average OBP, IsoSLG). Him being a good dude is great and all, but offensively he has never shown the talent of a Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber and expecting improvement solely based on age and his makeup is probably not a good bet in the long run. At the AAA level, age is just less of a factor than it was throughout, particularly when you've shown the same skills offensively over and over, he's still going to be very reliant on putting up a high BABIP to carry significant offensive value at the ML level.

Gotcha. I still think that context not only includes how his production compares to the rest of the league but also his age, whether he's repeated the league, his position, the quality with which he plays it, etc.

 

I acknowledged that he's a lesser hitter than the other prospects mentioned in the post you're responding to and that he has consistently struggled with walks, so we agree there. Really rather you acknowledge that than simple restate it as if I didn't already, but whatever. To each their own.

 

Generally speaking and specifically on Wilson - overall lines are going to be more valuable than stretches. I mean, if you're already acknowledging that taking only Wilson's second half numbers can be misleading then you're already there and the improvements mentioned for his second half are there in his overall line anyway (he went from high K rate, BA, OBP, IsoSLG to above league and level).

Not really. I think I was pretty clear in what I was saying. I'm not "already there" as if you're right and I am only to agree with you. But again, to each their own.

[CubsWin]

1. He'll rank higher on "lists" than on stats. .745 OPS, >20% K-rate, 3 HR, those stats are a bit above average. It's the non-statistical scouting tools and the projection that stand out better, I think.

 

2. You make lists yourself. Nothing wrong with lists. But some are better than others, duh. No intelligent list will ignore stats. Just like no intelligent list will ignore age or, if information permits, some scouting. The more input the better, and the more intelligent the list will be. (For example, Katoh had some list with Amora ranked super high; I think that list was missing something somehow, and had him too high.)

 

3. We know the scouting on DJ is that his defense is really good, and the tools eval project that it should stay truly good. Lots of short-season middle guys won't be middle guys in the majors, or won't be good middle-defenders. But Wilson very much projects to be a true CFer, and a very good one, perhaps even relative to the high standard of big-league CF defense. It's significantly the scouting input on his defense/speed/arm that makes me as hopeful about him as I am, even though I don't really have stats to prove how his defense compares to some other short-season guy playing CF who might not at all project to actually end up playing good CF defense.

 

4. Majors are years away, at best, for Wilson, if he develops favorably. Hard to imagine the big-league landscape. But, just for fun: it is conceivable that Fowler will get resigned. If so, if Wilson percolates up the chain and develops beautifully, his graduation might conceivably sync semi-well with Folwer's next contract ending? It's also conceivable that Almora might be a significant player in the Cubs CF landscape at a time when Wilson might theoretically graduate. Wilson is lefty, Almora is righty. There could hypothetically be some "fit" there, too. Maybe a 3rd hypothetical might be Cubs covering CF for at least a while with some Heyward, perhaps supplemented with some Almora. Perhaps if Wilson was to develop beautifully, he might be able to merge into that landscape somehow, too.

 

Anyway, hope the kid develops into a tremendous center fielder and baserunner, and develops into a good hitter as well.

Well said, craig. I feel very much like you do on all four of these. That Katoh list was weird on a number of rankings for me, including Almora. Perhaps it was his defense that factored in so greatly. FWIW, the metrics (Fangraphs) really liked his D in the short time he was in the majors this season.

 

The scouting on Wilson is really exciting. Adding the 2nd half breakout with the bat really piques the interest.

 

And there are several scenarios as to how DJ might fit in down the line. The ones you listed are all possible. Szczur continues to do well and steps in if Fowler leaves with Heyward playing some CF. Almora gets traded or craps out with the bat and becomes the 4th OFer, etc. Obviously, there's a ton of wait and see between now and then.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

1. He'll rank higher on "lists" than on stats. .745 OPS, >20% K-rate, 3 HR, those stats are a bit above average. It's the non-statistical scouting tools and the projection that stand out better, I think.

 

2. You make lists yourself. Nothing wrong with lists. But some are better than others, duh. No intelligent list will ignore stats. Just like no intelligent list will ignore age or, if information permits, some scouting. The more input the better, and the more intelligent the list will be. (For example, Katoh had some list with Amora ranked super high; I think that list was missing something somehow, and had him too high.)

 

3. We know the scouting on DJ is that his defense is really good, and the tools eval project that it should stay truly good. Lots of short-season middle guys won't be middle guys in the majors, or won't be good middle-defenders. But Wilson very much projects to be a true CFer, and a very good one, perhaps even relative to the high standard of big-league CF defense. It's significantly the scouting input on his defense/speed/arm that makes me as hopeful about him as I am, even though I don't really have stats to prove how his defense compares to some other short-season guy playing CF who might not at all project to actually end up playing good CF defense.

 

4. Majors are years away, at best, for Wilson, if he develops favorably. Hard to imagine the big-league landscape. But, just for fun: it is conceivable that Fowler will get resigned. If so, if Wilson percolates up the chain and develops beautifully, his graduation might conceivably sync semi-well with Folwer's next contract ending? It's also conceivable that Almora might be a significant player in the Cubs CF landscape at a time when Wilson might theoretically graduate. Wilson is lefty, Almora is righty. There could hypothetically be some "fit" there, too. Maybe a 3rd hypothetical might be Cubs covering CF for at least a while with some Heyward, perhaps supplemented with some Almora. Perhaps if Wilson was to develop beautifully, he might be able to merge into that landscape somehow, too.

 

Anyway, hope the kid develops into a tremendous center fielder and baserunner, and develops into a good hitter as well.

Well said, craig. I feel very much like you do on all four of these. That Katoh list was weird on a number of rankings for me, including Almora. Perhaps it was his defense that factored in so greatly. FWIW, the metrics (Fangraphs) really liked his D in the short time he was in the majors this season.

 

The scouting on Wilson is really exciting. Adding the 2nd half breakout with the bat really piques the interest.

 

And there are several scenarios as to how DJ might fit in down the line. The ones you listed are all possible. Szczur continues to do well and steps in if Fowler leaves with Heyward playing some CF. Almora gets traded or craps out with the bat and becomes the 4th OFer, etc. Obviously, there's a ton of wait and see between now and then.

 

Katoh doesn't look at defense, other than what position a guy plays at. Basically, it assumes him to be a league average center fielder. Katoh likes Almora pretty much exclusively because of his age and contact ability (and that he plays center). Those two things play well as guys move up to the big leagues, so Katoh favors them a lot.

[CubsWin]

Gotcha. I still think that context not only includes how his production compares to the rest of the league but also his age, whether he's repeated the league, his position, the quality with which he plays it, etc.

 

I acknowledged that he's a lesser hitter than the other prospects mentioned in the post you're responding to and that he has consistently struggled with walks, so we agree there. Really rather you acknowledge that than simple restate it as if I didn't already, but whatever. To each their own.

 

Not really. I think I was pretty clear in what I was saying. I'm not "already there" as if you're right and I am only to agree with you. But again, to each their own.

 

The thing Almora has going for him age wise is that he's a couple years off from the meat of his prime, but given that he keeps showing the same skills I don't think we get a suddenly dramatic change so much as he might run into a really BABIP friendly season during that age 23-26 range. I restated, if you choose to see it as such, what was said about his offense to make the opposite point - that his total lack of secondary skills on offense outside of making contact makes him much less likely than the Bryant/Schwarber/Russell trio to take some kind of leap forward.

 

To the other part I probably just don't understand what you're saying. To me it seems a given that more info is better than less, and like I said all the stuff you see in Wilson's second half are in his overall, just with a less exciting looking triple slash line.

Understood.

 

The problem is I don't think anyone was predicting or even describing a "suddenly dramatic change" in his production. I specifically mentioned that he would likely always be someone with a below average walk rate. So you seem to be speaking against a statement that's not being made.

 

As with with most players with above average make-up, they're more likely to get the most out of their abilities than the average prospect. Given that Almora reportedly excels in the make-up category, I have hope that he isn't just what he is at this point, and the more AAA and major league pitches he sees, the better he will get at the plate. Dramatically better? Probably not. But then again, to be a solid major league contributor, he doesn't have to become dramatically better. A line of .280/.320/.420 with well above average CF defense is pretty good. Time will tell if he can achieve that level.

 

Even if he doesn't achieve that level, he's already pretty similar to major league starting CFers like Kevin Pillar who didn't debut until he was 24 and didn't have his first full season until 26. I'd say it's a better than 50/50 bet that Almora can be similar to or better than Pillar. But it's certainly valid to have a different opinion. The stats are definitely there to support that.

[davell]

Consistent appearance in trade rumors? What have I missed? All I remember are articles saying he's not available.

[CubsWin]

Understood.

 

The problem is I don't think anyone was predicting or even describing a "suddenly dramatic change" in his production. I specifically mentioned that he would likely always be someone with a below average walk rate. So you seem to be speaking against a statement that's not being made.

 

As with with most players with above average make-up, they're more likely to get the most out of their abilities than the average prospect. Given that Almora reportedly excels in the make-up category, I have hope that he isn't just what he is at this point, and the more AAA and major league pitches he sees, the better he will get at the plate. Dramatically better? Probably not. But then again, to be a solid major league contributor, he doesn't have to become dramatically better. A line of .280/.320/.420 with well above average CF defense is pretty good. Time will tell if he can achieve that level.

 

Even if he doesn't achieve that level, he's already pretty similar to major league starting CFers like Kevin Pillar who didn't debut until he was 24 and didn't have his first full season until 26. I'd say it's a better than 50/50 bet that Almora can be similar to or better than Pillar. But it's certainly valid to have a different opinion. The stats are definitely there to support that.

 

- After telling me I'm going after something that wasn't said you make pretty much the same case that he can get significantly better than he is because he's a good dude. I disagree, thought that was clear, but do believe that still being in the meat of his prime years might help him get that BABIP inflated season or two he'll need to be seen as a playmaker early in his career at the ML level. The focus on the walk rate is noise, I have talked about his overall lack of secondary skills rather than just the walk rate.

 

- Kevin Pillar hit .323/.366/.478 in the minors with the elite defense and better speed too. Almora has hit .290/.323/.421 in the minors . I'm not a believer that being a good guy covers that kind of gap in on field production.

 

Is Almora a higher quality prospect than other slap hitters who will get most of their value on defense while mostly relying on the Jahs to determine offensive value? Maybe, but I'm going to question that kind of player's career ceiling and overall fit with the Cubs' ML roster until they commit to one. His main leverage to remain a Cub is that he's already in house, but considering the Cubs' long term pitching needs and consistent appearance in trade rumors I think he's a guy to sell while he's young and cheap enough to pretend there aren't massive holes in his game and performance.

Oh boy. Make-up is quite different than being a good guy. But if you feel the need to belittle it because it doesn't fit your narrative in this specific case, be my guest. I'm not interested in you changing your mind on anything.

 

It seems like a double standard to me that you can get geeked over Paredes' ability to give a killer interview but not a different athlete's work ethic, etc. You get the last word on this one. I'm moving on.

[craig]

I don't expect much from Almora offensively. And if he becomes the Cubs primary CF next year, I'm not sure I won't quickly be wishing he wasn't, and viewing him as a real liability in any effort to have a relentless lineup offensively.

 

But, I do have hopes, if not expectations, that he still has improvement left.

1. His HR-power may improve some. Lots of guys hit somewhat more HR at 24-28 than they do at 22. It's not like it would take some radical change in his profile for him to end up hitting 10-12 HR per season. Over the course of a 500-AB primary-starter season, an extra 5 HR is worth 10 points in BA, 10 points in OBP, and 50 points in slugging, simplistically. Does it require some inconceivable radical improvement for him to improve from a 6-HR guy to an 11-HR guy? That might impact whether he could be a .725-OPS guy (not awful for a premium CFer) versus a .675 guy (pretty lousy even for a high-end CFer.)

2. Most guys lose a lot of OPS upon going from AAA to the great-pitching-great-defense majors. But I have a notion that contact hitters may not lose as much. If you can hit the ball regardless and put it in play, and you're living on BABIP, a low-K guy may not suffer as badly, or be exposed as badly by the superior ability of major-leaguers.

3. I think it's reasonable that an intelligent, hard-working, great-makeup guy in the context of a top-end development and teaching team might be able to adjust and adapt and improve a little better than elsewhere. I almost think I should *expect* improvement these days to be a little better than with guys in previous Cub eras.

 

Not sure how much he has to improve. Had a .712 OPS with Cubs. Personally, I think that would have gone down, down, down if he'd stayed up. But, that's just me. With his defense, if he could actually sustain that level of .712 OPS, or improve it just modestly, I don't think a .720-.735-OPS Almora would necessarily be a liability player.

[CubsWin]

I don't expect much from Almora offensively. And if he becomes the Cubs primary CF next year, I'm not sure I won't quickly be wishing he wasn't, and viewing him as a real liability in any effort to have a relentless lineup offensively.

 

But, I do have hopes, if not expectations, that he still has improvement left.

1. His HR-power may improve some. Lots of guys hit somewhat more HR at 24-28 than they do at 22. It's not like it would take some radical change in his profile for him to end up hitting 10-12 HR per season. Over the course of a 500-AB primary-starter season, an extra 5 HR is worth 10 points in BA, 10 points in OBP, and 50 points in slugging, simplistically. Does it require some inconceivable radical improvement for him to improve from a 6-HR guy to an 11-HR guy? That might impact whether he could be a .725-OPS guy (not awful for a premium CFer) versus a .675 guy (pretty lousy even for a high-end CFer.)

2. Most guys lose a lot of OPS upon going from AAA to the great-pitching-great-defense majors. But I have a notion that contact hitters may not lose as much. If you can hit the ball regardless and put it in play, and you're living on BABIP, a low-K guy may not suffer as badly, or be exposed as badly by the superior ability of major-leaguers.

3. I think it's reasonable that an intelligent, hard-working, great-makeup guy in the context of a top-end development and teaching team might be able to adjust and adapt and improve a little better than elsewhere. I almost think I should *expect* improvement these days to be a little better than with guys in previous Cub eras.

 

Not sure how much he has to improve. Had a .712 OPS with Cubs. Personally, I think that would have gone down, down, down if he'd stayed up. But, that's just me. With his defense, if he could actually sustain that level of .712 OPS, or improve it just modestly, I don't think a .720-.735-OPS Almora would necessarily be a liability player.

Well said, craig.

 

I don't expect much from Almora offensively either. A .735-.740 OPS I expect would be his ceiling, and he's got development left to achieve before he'd get to that level.

 

I also thought that if he'd stayed up his numbers would continue to drop. I expect his rookie season, if it is indeed next year, would be a fairly poor one at the plate and leave a lot of fans wanting, but I don't think he's done getting better yet.