Draft Teix

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, yeah, arguing it from a standpoint of what actually happened, it's silly to pick Prior. From a standpoint of picking either without knowing what would happen, you can easily make a good argument either way. Personally, I still go with Prior.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, yeah, arguing it from a standpoint of what actually happened, it's silly to pick Prior. From a standpoint of picking either without knowing what would happen, you can easily make a good argument either way. Personally, I still go with Prior.

you can make a wonderful argument for drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant as well, if you are interesting in being wrong about everything.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, yeah, arguing it from a standpoint of what actually happened, it's silly to pick Prior. From a standpoint of picking either without knowing what would happen, you can easily make a good argument either way. Personally, I still go with Prior.

you can make a wonderful argument for drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant as well, if you are interesting in being wrong about everything.

 

It's not a matter of being right or wrong unless someone is saying "yes, I would still take Mark Prior knowing what would happen to him."

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, yeah, arguing it from a standpoint of what actually happened, it's silly to pick Prior. From a standpoint of picking either without knowing what would happen, you can easily make a good argument either way. Personally, I still go with Prior.

you can make a wonderful argument for drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant as well, if you are interesting in being wrong about everything.

 

It's not a matter of being right or wrong unless someone is saying "yes, I would still take Mark Prior knowing what would happen to him."

the point is that can't miss college bats really are can't miss and must be taken over can't miss college arms because no arm is can't miss

[Sammy Sofa]

you can make a wonderful argument for drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant as well, if you are interesting in being wrong about everything.

 

It's not a matter of being right or wrong unless someone is saying "yes, I would still take Mark Prior knowing what would happen to him."

the point is that can't miss college bats really are can't miss and must be taken over can't miss college arms because no arm is can't miss

 

I don't think anyone is disagreeing that bats aren't a better bet to succeed. I just think it's been extrapolated to some goofily extreme levels by some here.

[UK]

Well, yeah, arguing it from a standpoint of what actually happened, it's silly to pick Prior. From a standpoint of ipicking either without knowing what would happen, you can easily make a good argument either way. Personally, I still go with Prior.

you can make a wonderful argument for drafting Mark Appel over Kris Bryant as well, if you are interesting in being wrong about everything.

 

That would apply if Appel was equal to Prior, which was not the case.

 

Appel was not better than Bryant.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

that bats aren't a better bet to succeed. I just think it's been extrapolated to some goofily extreme levels by some here.

 

Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute).

 

Hitters: 25

Pitchers: 25

 

Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12

Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5

 

That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close).

[Sammy Sofa]

that bats aren't a better bet to succeed. I just think it's been extrapolated to some goofily extreme levels by some here.

 

Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute).

 

Hitters: 25

Pitchers: 25

 

Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12

Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5

 

That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close).

 

Again, I'm not disagreeing with this idea. I just don't think that means someone is automatically "wrong" if they would still choose Prior, or choose a pitcher, period.

[UK]

that bats aren't a better bet to succeed. I just think it's been extrapolated to some goofily extreme levels by some here.

 

Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute).

 

Hitters: 25

Pitchers: 25

 

Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12

Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5

 

That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close).

 

That's proven that it's safer to take a bat but do you pass on Strasburg who like Prior was once in a decade pitching prospect coming out of college?

 

I would have drafted him.

[UK]

You can make a case for Verlander as well who might have gone 1 instead of 2 had he not pitched in the CAA.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

that bats aren't a better bet to succeed. I just think it's been extrapolated to some goofily extreme levels by some here.

 

Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute).

 

Hitters: 25

Pitchers: 25

 

Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12

Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5

 

That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close).

 

That's proven that it's safer to take a bat but do you pass on Strasburg who like Prior was once in a decade pitching prospect coming out of college?

 

I would have drafted him.

 

That's a bit of an extreme example considering Strasburg's stature and the quality of that particular draft, but even then you have Pollock and Trout in that first round. In that position I probably would have drafted Ackley, and hopefully had better player development than the Mariners or the foresight to trade him before he busted. In the Top 5 you need to not squander the opportunity, look at the pre-Huntington Pirates for a great example of what happens when you do.

[UK]

The reason why I bring up Strasburg and my disbelief of the absolute of not taking a collegiate pitcher is that had you drafted Ackley (#2 consensus pick) ahead of him, your principal would have caused the wrong pick.

 

Ill take my chances of selecting the BPA regardless if it is a collegiate pitcher or hitter.

 

If it's close, I would take the hitter.

[UK]

 

Here's a quick and dirty illustration, 2000-2009 Top 5 picks(to give them time to reach MLB and contribute).

 

Hitters: 25

Pitchers: 25

 

Hitters with 10 career bWAR: 12

Pitchers with 10 bWAR: 5

 

That will change to 14 to 5 soon because Moustakas and Hosmer are both north of 9.5 bWAR too(no pitchers are close).

 

That's proven that it's safer to take a bat but do you pass on Strasburg who like Prior was once in a decade pitching prospect coming out of college?

 

I would have drafted him.

 

That's a bit of an extreme example considering Strasburg's stature and the quality of that particular draft, but even then you have Pollock and Trout in that first round. In that position I probably would have drafted Ackley, and hopefully had better player development than the Mariners or the foresight to trade him before he busted. In the Top 5 you need to not squander the opportunity, look at the pre-Huntington Pirates for a great example of what happens when you do.

 

You have to factor finances when looking at crappy Bucs drafts of the 00s as it's incorrect to assume Bullington was the BPA similar as to why Brazelton was selected ahead of Teixiera. That's a financial mistake 1st.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The reason why I bring up Strasburg and my disbelief of the absolute of not taking a collegiate pitcher is that had you drafted Ackley (#2 consensus pick) ahead of him, your principal would have caused the wrong pick.

 

Ill take my chances of selecting the BPA regardless if it is a collegiate pitcher or hitter.

 

If it's close, I would take the hitter.

 

It's not about 100% chance of having the 'right' pick, it's about minimizing downside. Strasburg obviously was a hit(as was Price), but the top of the draft is also littered with Bullingtons and Appels and Hultzens and Bauers and Zimmers, and that's just limiting to the well-regarded college arms. Ackley was a miss(although one who was great in MiLB and carried strong trade value up through his second go round in MLB), but the top of the draft is also full of Teixeiras and Bryants and Poseys and Wieters and Longorias and Gordons. You don't want to ignore your scouting process entirely, but you have to heavily weight the repeated outcomes that have come before you.

[Sammy Sofa]

The reason why I bring up Strasburg and my disbelief of the absolute of not taking a collegiate pitcher is that had you drafted Ackley (#2 consensus pick) ahead of him, your principal would have caused the wrong pick.

 

Ill take my chances of selecting the BPA regardless if it is a collegiate pitcher or hitter.

 

If it's close, I would take the hitter.

 

It's not about 100% chance of having the 'right' pick, it's about minimizing downside. Strasburg obviously was a hit(as was Price), but the top of the draft is also littered with Bullingtons and Appels and Hultzens and Bauers and Zimmers, and that's just limiting to the well-regarded college arms. Ackley was a miss(although one who was great in MiLB and carried strong trade value up through his second go round in MLB), but the top of the draft is also full of Teixeiras and Bryants and Poseys and Wieters and Longorias and Gordons. You don't want to ignore your scouting process entirely, but you have to heavily weight the repeated outcomes that have come before you.

 

Right, but do you not think Prior stuck out of the usual pack, even by the standards of top draft picks? Again, it just feels like the circumstances of his downfall are so relatively bizarre that it feels like he's being dismissed in a "well, that's what you get for drafting a pitcher"-sense that doesn't seem entirely accurate.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Right, but do you not think Prior stuck out of the usual pack, even by the standards of top draft picks? Again, it just feels like the circumstances of his downfall are so relatively bizarre that it feels like he's being dismissed in a "well, that's what you get for drafting a pitcher"-sense that doesn't seem entirely accurate.

 

No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).

[Sammy Sofa]

Right, but do you not think Prior stuck out of the usual pack, even by the standards of top draft picks? Again, it just feels like the circumstances of his downfall are so relatively bizarre that it feels like he's being dismissed in a "well, that's what you get for drafting a pitcher"-sense that doesn't seem entirely accurate.

 

No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).

 

Fair enough.

 

Personally, I'd be cool with still going with Prior. Vive la difference.

[Regular Show]

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).

 

I remember that draft pretty well, and Prior was considered far and away the best prospect available and it was a little bit shocking that the Twins didn't select him (worked out pretty well for them). Obviously, I know a hell of a lot more about baseball now and scouting and the MLB draft, but honestly I still think I would've selected Prior over Tex.

 

Maybe not, with more info and analysis. I guess try to lean on history to minimize risk. Still, I remember reading that Prior had "perfect mechanics" for a pitcher and that he would be a staff ace for well over a decade. I mean the video of him pitching at USC was crazy impressive. He was the S. Strasburg of that era over a decade ago. I would pray with better handling and development and reduced pitch counts/innings that he might have held up better in an alternate universe, but the truth is he probably would still end up getting hurt. I completely agree with Transmogrified Tiger's philosophy, but I'm not going lie I was so enamored with M. Prior that I still would've taken him if I were the scouting director for the Cubs. People tend to forget how impressive his control and command were. It sucks we only got to see the good Prior for like 1.5 yrs. Really makes me sad...

 

PS -- I liked Tex and he was actually a switch-hitting third baseman in college and some scouts thought he could stick at third base. I had my doubts, and I didn't know how valuable he would be at first base. In retrospect, he was still pretty damn valuable at first base.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).

 

I remember that draft pretty well, and Prior was considered far and away the best prospect available and it was a little bit shocking that the Twins didn't select him (worked out pretty well for them). Obviously, I know a hell of a lot more about baseball now and scouting and the MLB draft, but honestly I still think I would've selected Prior over Tex.

 

That doesn't match my memory exactly, but I was also 14 so I'm not going to claim to have my finger exactly on the pulse. My memory is that there was definitely a sentiment that Prior was an incredible prospect and probably the best in the draft, but also that Teixeira and definitely Mauer were really really good too. Put another way, Prior would have gone #1 in a number of drafts(and possibly his own if it weren't for Mauer's hometown factor), but Mauer and Teixeira would have been Top 5 picks in a number of drafts too. They weren't there for lack of a better of alternatives(unlike say, Hultzen or Ackley) which underlines the point I was trying to make above. IMO you need a prospect of Prior's quality as a prerequisite for taking a pitcher Top 5, but also a lack of prospects of Teixeira/Mauer caliber as alternatives.

[Sammy Sofa]

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).

 

I remember that draft pretty well, and Prior was considered far and away the best prospect available and it was a little bit shocking that the Twins didn't select him (worked out pretty well for them). Obviously, I know a hell of a lot more about baseball now and scouting and the MLB draft, but honestly I still think I would've selected Prior over Tex.

 

That doesn't match my memory exactly, but I was also 14 so I'm not going to claim to have my finger exactly on the pulse. My memory is that there was definitely a sentiment that Prior was an incredible prospect and probably the best in the draft, but also that Teixeira and definitely Mauer were really really good too. Put another way, Prior would have gone #1 in a number of drafts(and possibly his own if it weren't for Mauer's hometown factor), but Mauer and Teixeira would have been Top 5 picks in a number of drafts too. They weren't there for lack of a better of alternatives(unlike say, Hultzen or Ackley) which underlines the point I was trying to make above. IMO you need a prospect of Prior's quality as a prerequisite for taking a pitcher Top 5, but also a lack of prospects of Teixeira/Mauer caliber as alternatives.

 

I'm also thinking along the lines of the Cubs right now; if hypothetically the Cubs miraculously have a pick where they're choosing between Prior and Teixeria, to me Prior seems like the obvious choice. Areas of need should sway this as opposed to just a blanket approach that hitters are almost always the better choice.

[philosophizer75]

Looking at this from a "what would today's Cubs do" standpoint is a pretty good way to assess it in my opinion.

[Regular Show]

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

That doesn't match my memory exactly, but I was also 14 so I'm not going to claim to have my finger exactly on the pulse. My memory is that there was definitely a sentiment that Prior was an incredible prospect and probably the best in the draft, but also that Teixeira and definitely Mauer were really really good too. Put another way, Prior would have gone #1 in a number of drafts(and possibly his own if it weren't for Mauer's hometown factor), but Mauer and Teixeira would have been Top 5 picks in a number of drafts too. They weren't there for lack of a better of alternatives(unlike say, Hultzen or Ackley) which underlines the point I was trying to make above. IMO you need a prospect of Prior's quality as a prerequisite for taking a pitcher Top 5, but also a lack of prospects of Teixeira/Mauer caliber as alternatives.

 

Well, I just learned I'm a little bit older than you lol. I was 17 at the time of that draft. No, you're right about Mauer and Teixeira. They were consensus top 5 prospects and were considered very good prospects. The concern with Mauer was that he was a HS catcher, which carries a lot of risk. The concern with Texiera was that he would have to move to first base and exactly how much game power he would develop. Some scouts were concerned that he was too passive and his plate discipline was so advanced that he was content with taking walks (Which was a thing back then. I mean Votto still gets criticized for being too passive at the plate). That's what I can recall. I remember reading columns about that draft by Peter Gammons, and he was lamenting how a small-market team like the Twins couldn't afford to draft Prior. At the same time he mentioned maybe Mauer will develop into a hometown hero and all-star C, and that his selection will look better with time. I thought he was crazy...

[Tracer Bullet]

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

No, not enough at least. You need a generational college pitcher(Strasburg, Prior) and a dearth of hitting prospects on par with say, the 2016 or 2014 first round(and even then, Schwarber and Conforto are decent counterpoints) to even consider it. Pitchers fail as a rule, and when you have the chance to impact your organization as much as a Top 5 pick can, you need one to be overwhelmingly above the field for it to be the right call to draft one. Strasburg's draft is close, depending on how much you liked Ackley at draft time. Drafting Prior over Teixeira is not close to that bar(to speak nothing of the fact that Mauer went #1).

 

I remember that draft pretty well, and Prior was considered far and away the best prospect available and it was a little bit shocking that the Twins didn't select him (worked out pretty well for them). Obviously, I know a hell of a lot more about baseball now and scouting and the MLB draft, but honestly I still think I would've selected Prior over Tex.

 

That doesn't match my memory exactly, but I was also 14 so I'm not going to claim to have my finger exactly on the pulse. My memory is that there was definitely a sentiment that Prior was an incredible prospect and probably the best in the draft, but also that Teixeira and definitely Mauer were really really good too. Put another way, Prior would have gone #1 in a number of drafts(and possibly his own if it weren't for Mauer's hometown factor), but Mauer and Teixeira would have been Top 5 picks in a number of drafts too. They weren't there for lack of a better of alternatives(unlike say, Hultzen or Ackley) which underlines the point I was trying to make above. IMO you need a prospect of Prior's quality as a prerequisite for taking a pitcher Top 5, but also a lack of prospects of Teixeira/Mauer caliber as alternatives.

 

wait, you were 14 in 2001?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes, I turn 30 in a few months.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yes, I turn 30 in a few months.

 

http://new3.fjcdn.com/thumbnails/comments/But+you+had+two+thumbs+up+_9fa9a7d90a9858c97ca80c34d0727fc2.gif