The Cubs and plate discipline

[TruffleShuffle]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/this-cubs-lineup-might-be-the-most-disciplined-lineup-ever/

 

The Cubs, as a team, are still projected to draw a walk in one of every 10 plate appearances. Only nine other teams come in above 8%. Only two other teams at 9%. The difference between the Cubs in first and the A’s in second is the same as the difference between the A’s in second and the Mariners in 11th. The Cubs, here, are three full standard deviations above the mean, making them an actual statistical outlier. That’s when you know you’re dealing with something truly unique.

 

So here’s the Cubs, projected for the first double-digit team walk rate in six years, and living up to that lofty forecast in the early going of the season. On its own, the 10% walk rate is already impressive, but it becomes even more impressive when we consider that walk rates are as low as they’ve been in decades. A 10% team walk rate in 2016 is exponentially more impressive than a 10% team walk rate in the late-90s.

 

So let’s gain some historical perspective. It’s a relatively simple thing to do. All we need is team walk rate and league walk rate. Divide the former by the latter, multiply by 100, and we’ve got an indexed statistic, like OPS+, where 100 is league average. The Cubs are projected for a BB%+ of 130, meaning their walk rate is expected to be 30% better than league average. How would that rank, in the post-expansion era?

 

Very, very well. The projections see the second-most disciplined team in more than 50 years, and the first-most disciplined in more than 20. They’re within spitting distance of first. Maybe all it takes is Soler Addison Russell or learning to control the strike zone a bit better to put them over the top, ahead of the 1993 Tigers. Maybe Kris Bryant takes such a step forward offensively that pitchers start working around him even more. With this projection, the Cubs are well within reach of posting the most impressive single-season team walk rate we’ve ever seen.

 

...

 

The same team that might have the best walk rate we’ve seen in more than 50 years is also projected to be this year’s best power-hitting team. To think of it in simple terms: any pitch that’s a ball, this Cubs lineup is liable to take, and any pitch that’s in the zone, this Cubs lineup is liable to hit out of the park. Now how is someone supposed to pitch against that?

 

 

a comparison between last year and this year:

 

swing % on pitches outside the zone:

2015: 30.5% (20th)

2016: 23.6% (28th)

 

swing % on pitches inside the zone:

2015: 69.4% (4th)

2016: 66.4% (14th)

 

% of pitches swung at, total:

2015: 47.5% (16th)

2016: 43.7% (28th)

 

% of swings that draw contact:

2015: 74.8% (30th)

2016: 76.5% (18th)

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/this-cubs-lineup-might-be-the-most-disciplined-lineup-ever/

 

The Cubs, as a team, are still projected to draw a walk in one of every 10 plate appearances. Only nine other teams come in above 8%. Only two other teams at 9%. The difference between the Cubs in first and the A’s in second is the same as the difference between the A’s in second and the Mariners in 11th. The Cubs, here, are three full standard deviations above the mean, making them an actual statistical outlier. That’s when you know you’re dealing with something truly unique.

 

So here’s the Cubs, projected for the first double-digit team walk rate in six years, and living up to that lofty forecast in the early going of the season. On its own, the 10% walk rate is already impressive, but it becomes even more impressive when we consider that walk rates are as low as they’ve been in decades. A 10% team walk rate in 2016 is exponentially more impressive than a 10% team walk rate in the late-90s.

 

So let’s gain some historical perspective. It’s a relatively simple thing to do. All we need is team walk rate and league walk rate. Divide the former by the latter, multiply by 100, and we’ve got an indexed statistic, like OPS+, where 100 is league average. The Cubs are projected for a BB%+ of 130, meaning their walk rate is expected to be 30% better than league average. How would that rank, in the post-expansion era?

 

Very, very well. The projections see the second-most disciplined team in more than 50 years, and the first-most disciplined in more than 20. They’re within spitting distance of first. Maybe all it takes is Soler Addison Russell or learning to control the strike zone a bit better to put them over the top, ahead of the 1993 Tigers. Maybe Kris Bryant takes such a step forward offensively that pitchers start working around him even more. With this projection, the Cubs are well within reach of posting the most impressive single-season team walk rate we’ve ever seen.

 

...

 

The same team that might have the best walk rate we’ve seen in more than 50 years is also projected to be this year’s best power-hitting team. To think of it in simple terms: any pitch that’s a ball, this Cubs lineup is liable to take, and any pitch that’s in the zone, this Cubs lineup is liable to hit out of the park. Now how is someone supposed to pitch against that?

 

 

a comparison between last year and this year:

 

swing % on pitches outside the zone:

2015: 30.5% (20th)

2016: 23.6% (28th)

 

swing % on pitches inside the zone:

2015: 69.4% (4th)

2016: 66.4% (14th)

 

% of pitches swung at, total:

2015: 47.5% (16th)

2016: 43.7% (28th)

 

% of swings that draw contact:

2015: 74.8% (30th)

2016: 76.5% (18th)

 

Yeah, all the rage has been our discipline, but we've also been a lot better at making contact. And the best part about those numbers you listed: They stabilize much more quickly than other stats. Things like swing% and contact% stabilize in 50-100 PAs. There might be some noise, and we might regress. But, this is definitely meaningful, at least as meaningful as something can be after 9 games.

 

And, of course, we should probably have expected those things to improve when adding in a couple of experienced hitters, with great backgrounds and discerning eyes, in Zobrist and Heyward. But, the really fun thing is what we are seeing from Russell and Bryant so far. These are really young kids, who could be expected to improve in these aspects. And so far, it is a very rosy outlook.

 

Bryant:

[pre]Season O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%

2015 30.6 % 76.2 % 49.8 % 49.2 % 75.8 % 66.3 % 42.0 % 60.8 % 16.5 %

2016 23.9 % 74.2 % 48.1 % 43.8 % 84.8 % 74.2 % 48.1 % 52.6 % 12.3 %[/pre]

 

Russell:

[pre]Season O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%

2015 31.4 % 70.1 % 48.9 % 51.3 % 82.3 % 71.4 % 45.2 % 61.4 % 13.7 %

2016 26.0 % 59.3 % 40.4 % 60.0 % 82.9 % 74.6 % 43.4 % 82.4 % 9.9 %[/pre]

Edited April 15, 2016 by Duke Silver

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So, yeah... a lot of great things from Bryant and Russell. They are both swinging less overall. They are both swinging significantly less at balls out of the zone. They are both making more contact overall. They are both making more contact at pitches in the zone. They both have had significantly fewer swinging strikes.

 

The Bryant development is, frankly, downright scary. There was a lot of hand-wringing about him swinging through balls in the zone last year. That's not happening anymore. His increase in Contact% is coming entirely from balls in the zone. His O-Contact% is actually down. So he is not swinging at balls out of the zone and hammering the ones in the zone. And with what a beast he already was... frightening.

 

There was a point last year where I was like, well, you guys are studs and do a lot of things really well: hit for power, add speed, defense, etc. But those Contact% hovering at or below 70% are disconcerting. Now Bryant and Russell are hanging around 74%, which is actually completely acceptable for guys like them that hit for pop and draw walks. Like, if they just chill at 74-75% all year, they are going to be horsefeathering animals. And that's not even taking into account that they are more discerning at the plate, too. Goodness.

[minnesotacubsfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/this-cubs-lineup-might-be-the-most-disciplined-lineup-ever/

 

The Cubs, as a team, are still projected to draw a walk in one of every 10 plate appearances. Only nine other teams come in above 8%. Only two other teams at 9%. The difference between the Cubs in first and the A’s in second is the same as the difference between the A’s in second and the Mariners in 11th. The Cubs, here, are three full standard deviations above the mean, making them an actual statistical outlier. That’s when you know you’re dealing with something truly unique.

 

So here’s the Cubs, projected for the first double-digit team walk rate in six years, and living up to that lofty forecast in the early going of the season. On its own, the 10% walk rate is already impressive, but it becomes even more impressive when we consider that walk rates are as low as they’ve been in decades. A 10% team walk rate in 2016 is exponentially more impressive than a 10% team walk rate in the late-90s.

 

So let’s gain some historical perspective. It’s a relatively simple thing to do. All we need is team walk rate and league walk rate. Divide the former by the latter, multiply by 100, and we’ve got an indexed statistic, like OPS+, where 100 is league average. The Cubs are projected for a BB%+ of 130, meaning their walk rate is expected to be 30% better than league average. How would that rank, in the post-expansion era?

 

Very, very well. The projections see the second-most disciplined team in more than 50 years, and the first-most disciplined in more than 20. They’re within spitting distance of first. Maybe all it takes is Soler Addison Russell or learning to control the strike zone a bit better to put them over the top, ahead of the 1993 Tigers. Maybe Kris Bryant takes such a step forward offensively that pitchers start working around him even more. With this projection, the Cubs are well within reach of posting the most impressive single-season team walk rate we’ve ever seen.

 

...

 

The same team that might have the best walk rate we’ve seen in more than 50 years is also projected to be this year’s best power-hitting team. To think of it in simple terms: any pitch that’s a ball, this Cubs lineup is liable to take, and any pitch that’s in the zone, this Cubs lineup is liable to hit out of the park. Now how is someone supposed to pitch against that?

 

 

a comparison between last year and this year:

 

swing % on pitches outside the zone:

2015: 30.5% (20th)

2016: 23.6% (28th)

 

swing % on pitches inside the zone:

2015: 69.4% (4th)

2016: 66.4% (14th)

 

% of pitches swung at, total:

2015: 47.5% (16th)

2016: 43.7% (28th)

 

% of swings that draw contact:

2015: 74.8% (30th)

2016: 76.5% (18th)

 

 

THIS IS WHY WE CANT HAVE DONGS

[Fro]

The Bryant development is, frankly, downright scary. There was a lot of hand-wringing about him swinging through balls in the zone last year. That's not happening anymore. His increase in Contact% is coming entirely from balls in the zone. His O-Contact% is actually down. So he is not swinging at balls out of the zone and hammering the ones in the zone. And with what a beast he already was... frightening.

 

ESPN the magazine was talking about Bryant's new pitching machine.

 

When Kris is training here in the offseason, they typically start off with the tee, then move to the Hack Attack pitching machine, which Mike bought after seeing a model at one of the Cubs' facilities. If Kris wants to work on bat speed, Mike will dial in a 96 mph fastball, center-cut. Kris' favorite. Mike has figured out the dials on the machine, says he can pull up an Adam Wainwright slider on demand.

 

I'm sure they've got tricks to train pitch recognition that we don't know about as well.

[UMFan83]

Discipline has been great, contact has been better.

 

And guess what? Only 8th in the league in SLG%, 11th in HRs, 9th in TB. Not the best metrics, but for a team projected to have out of this world power, we still haven't hit to our abilities there.

[stitchface]

Albert Almora has 5 walks in his first 7 games . . . maybe he got the message?

[Bull]

Then they called up Javy Baez

[Aaron_Kennelly]

If my numbers are correct, after tonight, Bryant has a Contact% over 75% and Russell's is over 77%. They were at 66% and 71%, respectively, last year. Those are huge improvements. Last year, the league average was 78.9% and this year, it is a little over 77%. So, after having huge issues in that area last year, they are hanging around league average right now.

 

We are basically at the stabilization point for this stat already. This won't mean they will stay up there above 75% all year. But it does mean that we can be reasonably certain that they have improved in this aspect so far and that this isn't just small sample size noise. The longer we go, the less noise there will be. But, it's safe to say that, so far, they truly are hitting for contact much better.

 

Tonight we made contact on 52 of 58 pitches that we swung at, good for a 90% contact rate. We're at around 78% as a team for the year, which is right around tenth place. We are also in the top ten teams with the lowest K%.

 

So, yes, the walks are fantastic, and probably my favorite part about this offense (at least until the dongs come). But, we've also made huge strides in making contact, and it's not all due to the additions of Heyward and Zobrist.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Seriously, I'm getting all hot and bothered about the thought of Bryant and Russell being guys that don't have worrisome contact issues.