Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-13-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 9-5 Box Score

 

2B A. Alcantara 1/4, R, HR (1), RBI, BB, K

SS Ja. Baez 1/4, R, 2 K

1B D. Vogelbach 1/3, 2 R, 2 K, HBP

3B L. Watkins 4/4, R, 2B (1), 3 RBI

SP S. Fife 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 11-0 GO-FO, 56-37 pitches-strikes

RP A. Rivero 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-1 GO-FO

RP C. Edwards Jr. 1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 0-1 GO-FO

RP S. Patton 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1-0 GO-FO

 

Tennessee won 7-3 Box Score

 

CF J. Hannemann 0/4, BB, E (1, throw)

2B C. Young 0/4, RBI, BB, K

3B J. Candelario 3/4, R, BB

DH B. McKinney 0/4, R, BB, 2 K

C V. Caratini 1/3, BB, 2 K, PB (1)

RF B. Rademacher 3/5, 2 R, HR (1), 4 RBI

SP P. Blackburn 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 pickoffs (at second base, at second base), 7-2 GO-FO, 88-55 pitches-strikes

RP D. Garner 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K

RP A. Acevedo 1.1 IP, 0 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 2 K, 1-1 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach lost 4-2 Box Score

 

CF R. Crawford 1/4, R, 2B (2), BB

DH S. Dunston Jr 1/4, R, 2B (1), BB, K

2B I. Happ 1/3, RBI, BB, K

RF Je. Baez 1/4, 2 K, SB (4)

SP J. Martinez 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 9-5 GO-FO, 70-49 pitches-strikes

 

South Bend won 6-5 Box Score

 

LF D. Dewees 3/4, R, 2B (2), 3 RBI, CS (2)

RF E. Martinez 1/4

DH E. Jimenez 0/3, R, BB, K

C I. Rice 0/3, BB

1B T. Alamo 2/3, R, RBI

SP P. Morrison 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP, 1 WP, 7-0 GO-FO, 97-60 pitches-strikes

RP J. Norwood 1.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1-1 GO-FO

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Arismendy Alcantara with a homer. Javy is 0-2 with a K so far.

[CubsWin]

Arismendy Alcantara with a homer. Javy is 0-2 with a K so far.

Arismendy with a walk as well. I wish that weren't a thing worth posting about him. Still have hopes he can return to form. He's actually (finally) age appropriate for his level this year as a 24-year-old in AAA.

 

6-game hitting streak now. Keep this going, Mendy...

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Javy with a single. Almora is 1-2 and picked up his 5th walk in 6 games.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The whole Almora walking thing would be more fun if he wasn't SLGing .267. No one's going to walk him in the majors. My 2016 hopes for both he and Alcantara is that they help fill out a Sonny Gray trade somehow.

 

I'm excited for Baez in the majors this year. Should be much more casual than the previous ML appearances.

 

Come one, dude. You can't be citing SLG% 6 games into the season. I know I am touting his walk-rate way too early, too. But, he also started walking more last year. So it's not like this is something that just crept up out of nowhere, 6 games into the season. It's not really a small-sample-size issue, when it already began last year. But, seriously, you are complaining about his slugging a week into the season?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Almora has a 10% walk rate in 220 PA since returning from Team USA, I think it's safe to say that's a bit of a thing now. His highest previous walk rate was 6.3% at Kane County, so even if that 10% regresses there's still room for him to be markedly improved.

 

EDIT: For the curious, his SLG is .431 in that span.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Almora has a 10% walk rate in 220 PA since returning from Team USA, I think it's safe to say that's a bit of a thing now. His highest previous walk rate was 6.3% at Kane County, so even if that 10% regresses there's still room for him to be markedly improved.

 

EDIT: For the curious, his SLG is .431 in that span.

 

Sure, it's a thing in his minor league career, but MLers won't be just handing him walks because he took a few more for a couple hundred minir league PAs. Almora not hitting for power has been around alot longer than him taking walks too, so there is also that. While he's a virtual lock to make the majors barring catastrophe, he seems more akin to a Ryan Sweeney or OF version of LeMahieu/Barney.

 

Is the complaint here that Almora isn't going to be a 5 win monster? Something like Sweeney(.315 wOBA career) or LeMahieu's bat(90 wRC+) with plus CF defense is basically a 3 win player, and I wouldn't really put that as a ceiling on his offensive ability either.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yeah, the thing is: Almora hitting for power has never been a thing. Nobody expected it. Nobody was hitching their wagons to him because they thought he might hit for power. He doesn't need to hit for power to be an effective major league ballplayer.

 

I am not worried about his power, because I never expected him to hit for power. Maybe I thought he would hit for a little more power than he has. But I never soured on him because of his lack of power. I soured on him because he couldn't get on base, for a couple of reasons: 1. He rarely walked. 2. He didn't hit very well. If he can show more discipline, wait for pitches he can drive (even if it's only into a gap for a double, or on a line for a single), and get on base, then he becomes intriguing again.

 

Albert Almora with a 4% BB% is kinda ugly. Albert Almora with an 8-10% walk rate is somewhat exciting. Albert Almora with a .250 ISO is basically Mike Trout. I am not expecting Mike Trout, so I don't care that he doesn't have a .250 ISO.

 

But, back to how this started: Yes, I get it, he doesn't hit for power. That is something about him that is not good. And pointing it out isn't something that I would find exasperating. I just think that citing his SLG% 6 games into the season is absurd.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Nobody has made any such claims that him drawing more walks will correlate to him being a patient hitter that will also walk in the majors. And, yes, he might fail spectacularly if his defense isn't really as good as advertised, or he is so anemic with the bat that pitchers can pound the strike zone without him being able to make them pay. That would explain why most people have soured on him a lot over the last couple of years.

 

However, if given the choice of him walking more or him walking the same, or (somehow) even less, I am going to take him walking more. It is a positive development from a guy who hasn't had many in his time in our system.

[craig]

Yeah, the thing is: Almora hitting for power has never been a thing. Nobody expected it. Nobody was hitching their wagons to him because they thought he might hit for power. He doesn't need to hit for power to be an effective major league ballplayer.

 

I am not worried about his power, because I never expected him to hit for power. Maybe I thought he would hit for a little more power than he has. ....

 

You are smarter than me, Duke! :D But I will admit that **I** thought there might be some power, and the yes-or-no on that question would significantly impact his possible career.

*At time of draft, there was talk of mid-teens HR's.

*A couple of years ago when he opened AFL and bashed a long HR in one of first games, there was talk of projected power.

*When he hit 7 HR's in 89 games in Daytona starting the season as a 19-year old, I thought that with some maturation and man-power, that aiming for teens-HR's was a possibility.

*Over his career, as a very young player, he's averaged .129 ISO.

*During his hot streak late last season, he was higher than that, maybe .200 ISO or something?

*I think there was the argument that his ISO was modest because he was swinging at pitchers pitches because he's such a contact guy; and that if he becomes more selective he'd swing at pitches he could drive. Implicit is the concept that perhaps he would drive more balls and boost his ISO as a result.

*Theo was talking up how much stronger-looking he looked in camp this year. Implicit was the suggestion that he might hit with a little higher ISO as a result.

 

So, I think the concept has been that for at least some people, myself included (naive as that may be), that he's hit for some decent power. 13 HR and .150 ISO? If he was a 13-HR guy with .280/.330/.430 slash, and outstanding CF defense, that would be a very, very valuable player. If he's .250 batting average with .330 slugging, that's a very different story altogether. We'll see. As Tom rightly notes, if he's got no ISO, big league pitchers will have no fear and will not walk him much. We'll see how things go as this year plays out. I'd like to see him reach 10 HR's and ISO over .150 in the PCL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dewees with 3 hits, including a double. He's the new McKinney

[craig]

Dewees has 2 K's in 25 AB.

.680 slugging thus far. Very nice.

 

Not likely to play July in South Bend.

 

Rashad Crawford is also off to a hot start, .381, with power and walks. His career has been on a favorable developmental trajectory, and I recall Arguello commenting on how he seemed notably bigger/stronger this spring, poised for a breakout with more power than before. (Hit only 4 HR last year.) I tend to get him mixed up with the other CFer, Trey Martin; is Crawford also supposed to be a smooth long-strider good-defense CFer? Or was that just Martin and Crawford not notable defensively? He's a massive K-guy, though, and has started off K'ing at his habitual high rate. So, doubt he's going to turn into anything.

[craig]

This is the wrong day, but saw Arguello notes. He said in the Carson Sands start he was getting it up to 89-90.

 

That seems consistent with the camp reports from Arguello and Az Phil, mostly in the 87-90 range.

 

We'll see how that goes. Obviously a lot of guys are kind of psyched for their opening day, so with adrenalin and stuff they can throw harder than they'll sustain later. Others, in cold April you don't want to overdo it, and perhaps once the weather warms up and they are good and stretched out better they will throw a little harder. But for now, he doesn't seem to throw as hard as he did in his HS days.

[craig]

Arguello said that Blackburn has been 88-92 all camp. A well-controlled low-90's ground ball sinker doesn't sound very jazzy, and doesn't score many K's. Will be interesting how his velocity holds up or evolves as the season plays out, and to see whether his control can be consistent enough to sustain the kinds of success he's had in his first two starts. (1 run combined.)

 

With him, the concern has often been about the velocity or lack thereof. But, I think the curve is really a big factor, too.

 

If you can throw low strikes all day with your fastball, even if it isn't fast, you can either get quick outs or get to a lot of 2-strike counts. If you can put guys away with a consistent good curveball, some K's could be there, most K's are on breaking stuff not fastballs anyway.

 

Would be fun to see him stay healthy, to have velocity that really is often comfortably and controllably in the 90-92 range with sink, and to see the curve sharp enough and consistent enough so that he K's people reasonably often.

 

Obviously he's faster than hendricks, but for Hendricks having that killer change is really what makes his game work. If Blackburn's curve could become a killer pitch like that, Blackburn could be effective somewhat like Hendricks is.