If Soler is dealt

[Guest]

I honestly thought he should be starting years ago and thought Dusty was a moron for putting him in the pen. That said, for what he would cost, trading for him to convert him seems pretty risky.

[Guest]

Why not Chapman? Scared to take a risk?

 

Because we need/want a starter more than a reliever and we're spitballing ideas? Just a thought.

 

Chapman absolutely can and should be starting. I honestly have no idea why so many here don't buy that in this day and age when we've seen several guys convert successfully, none with his kind of talent and many without his health or even size.

If you convert him, how many innings do you think he can throw in his first year as a starter?

 

160-180. Liriano workload with more size, health, youth, and stuff.

 

There's way less risk than you guys are imagining. The risk is in that he hasn't done it, but plenty of risk on the guys were talking that have done it.

So, as your main acquisition, using your best resources, you'd trade for a guy who you only have for one year and wouldn't be able to pitch in the playoffs for you.

[jersey cubs fan]

So, as your main acquisition, using your best resources, you'd trade for a guy who you only have for one year and wouldn't be able to pitch in the playoffs for you.

 

Don't let 2015 fool you, 2016 is too early to be worried about playoffs.

[Guest]

I like Salazar more than every guy mentioned recently in this thread other than Archer.

 

I think I prefer Teheran, especially at the likely price.

[Guest]

I honestly thought he should be starting years ago and thought Dusty was a moron for putting him in the pen. That said, for what he would cost, trading for him to convert him seems pretty risky.

I have continually drafted him in fantasy hoping that the team would come to its senses that year and convert him to starter. If we were getting him long-term, I'd absolutely be for giving it a shot. But I'm not going to convert him, limit his innings appropriately and then have him walk as a free agent.

[Guest]

I like Salazar more than every guy mentioned recently in this thread other than Archer.

 

I think I prefer Teheran, especially at the likely price.

I'm just looking at who I think will be a better pitcher.

[Guest]

I honestly thought he should be starting years ago and thought Dusty was a moron for putting him in the pen. That said, for what he would cost, trading for him to convert him seems pretty risky.

I have continually drafted him in fantasy hoping that the team would come to its senses that year and convert him to starter. If we were getting him long-term, I'd absolutely be for giving it a shot. But I'm not going to convert him, limit his innings appropriately and then have him walk as a free agent.

 

Why would you be worried about the Cubs letting him walk? This is Chicago, not Tampa or Oakland. You pay the man.

I'm not necessarily worried about letting him walk. I'm worried that if we made the effort to convert him successfully that some other team would induce him to walk.

 

Not to mention the fact that not all reliever to starter conversions are successful.

[Guest]

I like Salazar more than every guy mentioned recently in this thread other than Archer.

 

I think I prefer Teheran, especially at the likely price.

I'm just looking at who I think will be a better pitcher.

 

Me too.

[Guest]

I like Salazar more than every guy mentioned recently in this thread other than Archer.

 

I think I prefer Teheran, especially at the likely price.

I'm just looking at who I think will be a better pitcher.

 

Me too.

I'm really curious why you'd say that. Is it the injury risk? Because Salazar has better stuff and better fundamental results.

[Guest]

I like Salazar more than every guy mentioned recently in this thread other than Archer.

 

I think I prefer Teheran, especially at the likely price.

I'm just looking at who I think will be a better pitcher.

 

Me too.

I'm really curious why you'd say that. Is it the injury risk? Because Salazar has better stuff and better fundamental results.

 

Durability is a big reason, but Salazar has a 3.52 and 3.62 FIP in his 2 seasons of extended MLB time. Teheran's 2013 and 2014 were 3.69 and 3.49 respectively. There isn't a chasm in their performance even when you don't consider that Teheran has proven an ability to throw a full season. His repertoire is probably slightly more Bosio-friendly too.

[Guest]

I'm really curious why you'd say that. Is it the injury risk? Because Salazar has better stuff and better fundamental results.

 

Durability is a big reason, but Salazar has a 3.52 and 3.62 FIP in his 2 seasons of extended MLB time. Teheran's 2013 and 2014 were 3.69 and 3.49 respectively. There isn't a chasm in their performance even when you don't consider that Teheran has proven an ability to throw a full season. His repertoire is probably slightly more Bosio-friendly too.

You left off that Teheran's 2015 FIP was 4.40. And that his control was significantly worse in 2015, which is often an indicator of a budding injury issue. Salazar made 31 starts this year compared to Teheran throwing 32. Not much of a difference there. Meanwhile, Salazar missed a LOT more bats, walked many fewer guys and allowed about the same number of home runs.

[Guest]

Durability would not be my selling point on either of those guys. Shorter (Salazar) or smaller (Teheran) RHers who give up HRs wouldn't be guys I want to splurge on in hopes that they take some kind of leap. Giving up HRs when nobody is hitting them is not a good sign for me, and neither can really blame their park or anything.

Weren't you one of the people that suggested going after Taijuan Walker? You know, the guy who allowed a lot more hr/9 than Salazar in a park that is just about the hardest in baseball in which to hit hr?

[Guest]

Durability would not be my selling point on either of those guys. Shorter (Salazar) or smaller (Teheran) RHers who give up HRs wouldn't be guys I want to splurge on in hopes that they take some kind of leap. Giving up HRs when nobody is hitting them is not a good sign for me, and neither can really blame their park or anything.

Weren't you one of the people that suggested going after Taijuan Walker? You know, the guy who allowed a lot more hr/9 than Salazar in a park that is just about the hardest in baseball in which to hit hr?

 

He brings a level of size - the first thing I mentioned even before the HRs - and stuff that neither one of those guys possess. Better potential breaking stuff than either one, and his change up is another pitch with K potential. He's also younger and less experienced.

 

Walker's a weird fit here for other reasons, but I think if the head is there he can go Arrieta on their asses.

You need to be less focused on size. That's been debunked to a large degree.

 

A quick search shows this article:

 

Height was not correlated to durability in seasons in which players were healthy, but that fact does not end the analysis. For us to be able to say that height does not correlate to durability at all, short pitchers would have to throw as much and stay off the disabled list as much as taller pitchers. The data for players on the disabled list at any time during 1994 through 2007 can be seen in table 5. There is no statistically significant correlation for games started or innings pitched; the highest r-square being .002 and the lowest p-value being .096. However, there is a correlation between height and games—a negative one: greater height correlates to fewer games pitched.

[Guest]

I'm really curious why you'd say that. Is it the injury risk? Because Salazar has better stuff and better fundamental results.

 

Durability is a big reason, but Salazar has a 3.52 and 3.62 FIP in his 2 seasons of extended MLB time. Teheran's 2013 and 2014 were 3.69 and 3.49 respectively. There isn't a chasm in their performance even when you don't consider that Teheran has proven an ability to throw a full season. His repertoire is probably slightly more Bosio-friendly too.

You left off that Teheran's 2015 FIP was 4.40. And that his control was significantly worse in 2015, which is often an indicator of a budding injury issue. Salazar made 31 starts this year compared to Teheran throwing 32. Not much of a difference there. Meanwhile, Salazar missed a LOT more bats, walked many fewer guys and allowed about the same number of home runs.

 

 

When I say durability, I'm talking about a demonstrated ability to consistently log a lot of innings. Salazar hit 190 innings this year and it was the first time in his career he's cracked 170. Teheran has made at least 26 starts 5 years running, hasn't missed time to injury that I'm aware of, and has thrown 185, 220, and 200 IP at the MLB level.

 

Performance wise, I'm aware that Teheran had a down 2015, that's why his value might be depressed. Maybe it's a harbinger of an injury(his up and down monthly splits seem to say inconsistency more than arm on verge of breaking), I'm willing to gamble it's more aberration than I am that Salazar is going to hold up to 200 IP workloads. As someone who throws the vast majority of his pitches straight(70% are 4 seamers or changeups), Salazar is someone who would be particularly prone to negative effects if he loses a little zip over the course of a full season too. It's why his xFIP probably very predictive either(you can say similar things about Teheran's discrepancy too).

[Guest]

You specifically say Salazar being shorter is reason to believe he'll be less durable. You continually talk about Chapman being 6'4" as a reason to believe he'll hold up as a starter. You talk about height a lot.

[Guest]

You specifically say Salazar being shorter is reason to believe he'll be less durable. You continually talk about Chapman being 6'4" as a reason to believe he'll hold up as a starter. You talk about height a lot.

 

he's real scouty like that

 

i remember him making some sort of argument that sabathia being huge was a reason he was a good long term bet

[Guest]

I'm really curious why you'd say that. Is it the injury risk? Because Salazar has better stuff and better fundamental results.

 

Durability is a big reason, but Salazar has a 3.52 and 3.62 FIP in his 2 seasons of extended MLB time. Teheran's 2013 and 2014 were 3.69 and 3.49 respectively. There isn't a chasm in their performance even when you don't consider that Teheran has proven an ability to throw a full season. His repertoire is probably slightly more Bosio-friendly too.

You left off that Teheran's 2015 FIP was 4.40. And that his control was significantly worse in 2015, which is often an indicator of a budding injury issue. Salazar made 31 starts this year compared to Teheran throwing 32. Not much of a difference there. Meanwhile, Salazar missed a LOT more bats, walked many fewer guys and allowed about the same number of home runs.

 

 

When I say durability, I'm talking about a demonstrated ability to consistently log a lot of innings. Salazar hit 190 innings this year and it was the first time in his career he's cracked 170. Teheran has made at least 26 starts 5 years running, hasn't missed time to injury that I'm aware of, and has thrown 185, 220, and 200 IP at the MLB level.

 

Performance wise, I'm aware that Teheran had a down 2015, that's why his value might be depressed. Maybe it's a harbinger of an injury(his up and down monthly splits seem to say inconsistency more than arm on verge of breaking), I'm willing to gamble it's more aberration than I am that Salazar is going to hold up to 200 IP workloads. As someone who throws the vast majority of his pitches straight(70% are 4 seamers or changeups), Salazar is someone who would be particularly prone to negative effects if he loses a little zip over the course of a full season too. It's why his xFIP probably very predictive either(you can say similar things about Teheran's discrepancy too).

on the other hand, Salazar has more room to lose a bit of velocity as he sits at ~95 instead of (91.1 or 91.6 depending on source). Salazar also had more velocity this year (in his highest innings workload) than last year.

[Guest]

You specifically say Salazar being shorter is reason to believe he'll be less durable. You continually talk about Chapman being 6'4" as a reason to believe he'll hold up as a starter. You talk about height a lot.

 

Read what I've written about Salazar in this thread. I note he's a short RH in connection to his HR rate, durability to an arm injury in the past. He will be 6 years removed from TJ a next year. I don't think his height helps I projecting durability, but it's more than that.

 

I mention SIZE with Chapman. He's 6'4", maybe even 6'5", and 225 with ridiculous medicals.

I'm assuming you didn't read the article. Height is not well correlated with any performance metric. If you think about the physics of things, being 4" taller from a distance of 726" away makes a difference in the angle of approach of around 0.55%. The difference in release point for arm angles has a significantly bigger impact than that.

 

Height just doesn't matter anywhere close to the amount that they teach in scout school. That study shows it doesn't impact durability or performance to any measurable degree.

[Guest]

on the other hand, Salazar has more room to lose a bit of velocity as he sits at ~95 instead of (91.1 or 91.6 depending on source). Salazar also had more velocity this year (in his highest innings workload) than last year.

 

This is sort of what I was getting at near the end of my last post. Salazar is throwing a 4 seamer or a change 70% of the time. If the gap between those two velocity-wise starts to converge, he's going to be more prone to getting hit around, especially the home run ball. Teheran does throw a 4 seamer a chunk of the time(40%), but he's throwing pitches with significant movement(2 seam, slider, curve) more than half the time, so the exact velocity isn't as crucial to his success, since 91 from a RHP to begin with isn't going to knock people's socks off.

[Guest]

They don't talk height I scout school and I'm baaaaaarely emphasizing it here. It's one piece of information that I rarely, if ever, use by itself.

You don't use it by itself, but you use it really often. Using meaningless information mixed in with other information just serves to dull the credibility of the other information.

[Guest]

on the other hand, Salazar has more room to lose a bit of velocity as he sits at ~95 instead of (91.1 or 91.6 depending on source). Salazar also had more velocity this year (in his highest innings workload) than last year.

 

This is sort of what I was getting at near the end of my last post. Salazar is throwing a 4 seamer or a change 70% of the time. If the gap between those two velocity-wise starts to converge, he's going to be more prone to getting hit around, especially the home run ball. Teheran does throw a 4 seamer a chunk of the time(40%), but he's throwing pitches with significant movement(2 seam, slider, curve) more than half the time, so the exact velocity isn't as crucial to his success, since 91 from a RHP to begin with isn't going to knock people's socks off.

This one I don't have data to back up, but I'd think the guy throwing 91 has less margin to lose velocity. Salazar can probably still get a 93-94 fastball at the top of the zone for a swing and miss. If Teheran drops to 89-90, he has to start having plus-plus command of his pitches to get away with it.

[Clem Fandango]

I honestly thought he should be starting years ago and thought Dusty was a moron for putting him in the pen. That said, for what he would cost, trading for him to convert him seems pretty risky.

I have continually drafted him in fantasy hoping that the team would come to its senses that year and convert him to starter. If we were getting him long-term, I'd absolutely be for giving it a shot. But I'm not going to convert him, limit his innings appropriately and then have him walk as a free agent.

 

Why would you be worried about the Cubs letting him walk? This is Chicago, not Tampa or Oakland. You pay the man. If anything you're lined up for a coup because people would then be whining that he only has one year SP experience and you need more for a Price/Kershaw contract.

 

If Chapman converts to a starter next year and is successful we might as well get used to him wearing a Dodgers uniform.

[Guest]

This one I don't have data to back up, but I'd think the guy throwing 91 has less margin to lose velocity. Salazar can probably still get a 93-94 fastball at the top of the zone for a swing and miss. If Teheran drops to 89-90, he has to start having plus-plus command of his pitches to get away with it.

 

This is an oversimplification, but it might help to illustrate.

 

More than 2/3 of Salazar's pitches have the same/similar trajectory, and it's one without much movement. That means that velocity change is the primary means of deception. If that delta in velocity shrinks, then it's even harder to fool the hitter. Plus since the shrinking delta comes from losing velocity at the top end(instead of a faster changeup), he loses the benefits of throwing a 95 mph fastball that make it hard to hit even when expected(see Chris Carter for an example, he was 2 for a million against elite velocity this year).

 

On the other hand, Teheran throws a significant chunk of his pitches with that 4 seamer(more than any other single pitch), but it's done in concert with a 2 seamer, slider, curve, and (very rarely) a change. That's 4 pitches at 3 distinct velocities with 3 different types of movement. The velocity change from 91 to 90 or 88 isn't as important because it's not the raw velocity that gets outs anyway.

 

Again, this is a caricature and not meant to be taken as literal proof, Salazar does throw a 2 seamer and the occasional breaking pitch after all. But I hope that at least partially illustrates what I'm getting at.

[Guest]

They don't talk height I scout school and I'm baaaaaarely emphasizing it here. It's one piece of information that I rarely, if ever, use by itself.

You don't use it by itself, but you use it really often. Using meaningless information mixed in with other information just serves to dull the credibility of the other information.

 

Height is a factor in size and size DOES correlate to durability in pitchers. There is a massive difference between 6'1" 230 and 6'4" 230, so of course I'll include it. It's not irrelevant information.

 

Really I think you're driving around the issue - both Salazar and Teheran have red flags for durability and performancw that go beyond height and I've mentioned them right in this thread.

Do you have a source for "size" correlating to durability?

[Guest]

This one I don't have data to back up, but I'd think the guy throwing 91 has less margin to lose velocity. Salazar can probably still get a 93-94 fastball at the top of the zone for a swing and miss. If Teheran drops to 89-90, he has to start having plus-plus command of his pitches to get away with it.

 

This is an oversimplification, but it might help to illustrate.

 

More than 2/3 of Salazar's pitches have the same/similar trajectory, and it's one without much movement. That means that velocity change is the primary means of deception. If that delta in velocity shrinks, then it's even harder to fool the hitter. Plus since the shrinking delta comes from losing velocity at the top end(instead of a faster changeup), he loses the benefits of throwing a 95 mph fastball that make it hard to hit even when expected(see Chris Carter for an example, he was 2 for a million against elite velocity this year).

 

On the other hand, Teheran throws a significant chunk of his pitches with that 4 seamer(more than any other single pitch), but it's done in concert with a 2 seamer, slider, curve, and (very rarely) a change. That's 4 pitches at 3 distinct velocities with 3 different types of movement. The velocity change from 91 to 90 or 88 isn't as important because it's not the raw velocity that gets outs anyway.

 

Again, this is a caricature and not meant to be taken as literal proof, Salazar does throw a 2 seamer and the occasional breaking pitch after all. But I hope that at least partially illustrates what I'm getting at.

I guess I look at it that a pitcher who throws hard can shift his balance to other pitches as he loses velocity - especially one who already has plus command. A pitcher who is getting by with average velocity doesn't have much else to fall back on as he loses zip.

 

But I don't data for either side of that debate.