Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-1-13

[Guest]

I'm assuming he'll swing at the pitch-arounds.

 

and this assumption of yours is a projection firmly rooted in science.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm assuming he'll swing at the pitch-arounds.

 

and this assumption of yours is a projection firmly rooted in science.

 

And two decades' worth of experience rooting for bad-approach/discipline prospects to turn it around.

 

Baez's 22.8% career K rate in the minor leagues puts him firmly in a category that both busts at a much higher rate than other prospects, but also tends to have lower OPS when they reach the majors even if they had high OPS in the minors (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates). And given that this has happened in the lower minors, we should expect that K rate to tick up a little bit as he moves up.

 

The only quibble here is what we define as a "realistic" possibility. If it wasn't for his amazing scouting reports, my Cubs' fan bias and faith in the developmental abilities of our front office, I'd probably be even more pessimistic about him.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Hairyducked Idiot

[UMFan83]

Whoops

[Guest]

I'm assuming he'll swing at the pitch-arounds.

 

and this assumption of yours is a projection firmly rooted in science.

 

And two decades' worth of experience rooting for bad-approach/discipline prospects to turn it around.

 

Baez's 22.8% career K rate in the minor leagues puts him firmly in a category that both busts at a much higher rate than other prospects, but also tends to have lower OPS when they reach the majors even if they had high OPS in the minors (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates). And given that this has happened in the lower minors, we should expect that K rate to tick up a little bit as he moves up.

 

The only quibble here is what we define as a "realistic" possibility. If it wasn't for his amazing scouting reports, my Cubs' fan bias and faith in the developmental abilities of our front office, I'd probably be even more pessimistic about him.

 

the conclusion of that article seems to be that high minor league strikeout rates are positively related to major league OPS, i don't see your point.

 

furthermore, you can't lump all high strikeout hitters into the same category. power opens a lot of doors as you progress through minor league systems. i mean, what were the SLG% among the different hitters that were analyzed? if Baez had little to no power, he'd be much easier to project as a bust, but then again, he wouldn't have been picked so high.

[Guest]

Whoops

 

get out of the way, jackass

[Hairyducked Idiot]

the conclusion of that article seems to be that high minor league strikeout rates are positively related to major league OPS, i don't see your point.

 

From the article:

 

When it comes to minor league OPS, it doesn't appear to matter whether or not a player strikes out too much. This is an interesting conclusion, because it suggests a sharper increase in difficulty from the minors to the majors than one might expect. To double check that increase, I also did a correlation test between minor league strikeout rates and major league OPS. This time, there was a fairly strong negative correlation (-.184). Players who struck out more in the minors tended to have a lower OPS in the majors, despite strikeout rates not affecting minor league OPS in any discernible way.

 

 

Yes, the article points out that if you shrink the population to guys whom you already know had long, successful MLB careers, then MLB OPS and MiLB K rate are positively indicated. That means little for Baez, who does not go into that category yet.

 

That category is very small and (as the article points out)was dominated by high BB/high K guys such as Larry Walker (12% BBs as a 20-year-old in AA), Joey Votto (15.9% BB rate as a 20-year-old across A and A+) and Ryan Howard (minor league debut at 21, 14.8% BB/rate in A-).

 

Baez just doesn't fit that profile at all.

 

 

furthermore, you can't lump all high strikeout hitters into the same category. power opens a lot of doors as you progress through minor league systems. i mean, what were the SLG% among the different hitters that were analyzed? if Baez had little to no power, he'd be much easier to project as a bust, but then again, he wouldn't have been picked so high.

 

No one's saying he's a for-sure bust. I'm saying if isn't a bust, it's almost certainly because he gets enough value from his power and defensive position to make up for an adequate-at-best OBP.

[Guest]

Is that -.184 correlation a typo?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Is that -.184 correlation a typo?

 

No.

[Guest]

Is that -.184 correlation a typo?

 

No.

That's a very weak correlation.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, yeah. A lot of stuff goes into OPS.

[Guest]

Well, yeah. A lot of stuff goes into OPS.

This time, there was a fairly strong negative correlation (-.184). Players who struck out more in the minors tended to have a lower OPS in the majors, despite strikeout rates not affecting minor league OPS in any discernible way.

 

Unless i'm missing something pretty substantial, the above conclusion does not follow from that correlation.

[Guest]

the conclusion of that article seems to be that high minor league strikeout rates are positively related to major league OPS, i don't see your point.

 

From the article:

 

When it comes to minor league OPS, it doesn't appear to matter whether or not a player strikes out too much. This is an interesting conclusion, because it suggests a sharper increase in difficulty from the minors to the majors than one might expect. To double check that increase, I also did a correlation test between minor league strikeout rates and major league OPS. This time, there was a fairly strong negative correlation (-.184). Players who struck out more in the minors tended to have a lower OPS in the majors, despite strikeout rates not affecting minor league OPS in any discernible way.

 

 

Yes, the article points out that if you shrink the population to guys whom you already know had long, successful MLB careers, then MLB OPS and MiLB K rate are positively indicated. That means little for Baez, who does not go into that category yet.

 

That category is very small and (as the article points out)was dominated by high BB/high K guys such as Larry Walker (12% BBs as a 20-year-old in AA), Joey Votto (15.9% BB rate as a 20-year-old across A and A+) and Ryan Howard (minor league debut at 21, 14.8% BB/rate in A-).

 

Baez just doesn't fit that profile at all.

 

 

furthermore, you can't lump all high strikeout hitters into the same category. power opens a lot of doors as you progress through minor league systems. i mean, what were the SLG% among the different hitters that were analyzed? if Baez had little to no power, he'd be much easier to project as a bust, but then again, he wouldn't have been picked so high.

 

No one's saying he's a for-sure bust. I'm saying if isn't a bust, it's almost certainly because he gets enough value from his power and defensive position to make up for an adequate-at-best OBP.

 

from the same article, under conclusions:

 

However, among successfully developed prospects, minor league strikeout rates are positively related with major league OPS, indicating that the prospects that become the best MLB hitters tend to be sluggers with moderately high strikeout rates.

 

so, if he's developed successfully, he isn't doomed. in fact, he may well develop into top major league hitter. the 22.8 k rate isn't a death kiss, either.

 

you seem to be implying that he's a finished product when, in actuality, he's a high school draftee with only one full season of pro baseball under his belt. there is still plenty of room for maturity and progression. the article, self-admittedly, isn't revolutionary. it simply states that some players with high strikeout rates work out and some don't, some respond well to coaching, and some don't. the great thing is that Baez has tons of power, which can't be taught.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The whole "he isn't a finished product" routine is technically true, but the only reason it gets brought up is to try to deflect away from how rare it is for low-BB hitters to become something else.

 

No one said anything about him being "doomed." He's in a high-bust category, and if he gets there, I think something like 290/320/500 (or even more ISO) is the best-case realistic scenario.

[Guest]

The whole "he isn't a finished product" routine is technically true, but the only reason it gets brought up is to try to deflect away from how rare it is for low-BB hitters to become something else.

 

No one said anything about him being "doomed." He's in a high-bust category, and if he gets there, I think something like 290/320/500 (or even more ISO) is the best-case realistic scenario.

 

if his hit tool is so bad, why is his average high and isop so low in your projections?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The whole "he isn't a finished product" routine is technically true, but the only reason it gets brought up is to try to deflect away from how rare it is for low-BB hitters to become something else.

 

No one said anything about him being "doomed." He's in a high-bust category, and if he gets there, I think something like 290/320/500 (or even more ISO) is the best-case realistic scenario.

 

if his hit tool is so bad, why is his average high and isop so low in your projections?

 

Everyone makes mistakes, and he hits mistakes really hard.