Rizzo

[lumafia]

I would be hesitant to advise Rizzo make any changes at this point. He needs to come out of his "slump" naturally without making any unnecessary changes. Making changes now would most likely make things worse.

 

All of that being said, the thing I would change with Rizzo would be the head movement during his stride. His stride, which is basically a timing mechanism, is pretty long. Long strides aren't entirely bad, but when they change the position of the hitter's head between the load and contact with the ball, it can have a negative impact. In other words, Rizzo's head comes forward (towards the pitcher) and down slightly as a result of his stride. Again, he was doing the same thing last year, but head movement can make it more difficult to efficiently track the ball. That is one of the first thing's I look for when reviewing mechanics with a hitter. Tracking a baseball is hard enough to do with your eyes being perfectly still. Imagine how much harder it is to do that when the things tracking the target (the eyes) are moving as well.

 

It's interesting that someone pointed out that he might be having trouble with pitches that are low and in. If that were the case, this could (it could be something else entirely) a result of not being able to effectively track a pitch in that area due to the movement of the head. Pitchers may have recognized this weakness in his hitting zone and are taking advantage.

[Sammy Sofa]

I've been checking more video of Rizzo from 2012 when he was hitting "better" against the most recent videos and I see no changes in his mechanics. Sveum is correct in that he does "hit with his hands". In other words, he isn't using his lower body and core as effectively as possible (what I said in my earlier post), but he was doing the same thing last year.

 

In other words, based on the eye test alone, everything looks the same. The worst thing that can happen to Rizzo is for anybody to tell him to do anything other than what he has been doing. He might be swinging at bad pitches because he is pressing and is not relaxed, and it might be that the pitcher's in the league are adjusting. Mechanically, he is the same as he was last year, though he could refine some things that would put him in a different category.

 

That's good to hear. Thanks for explaining.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's interesting that someone pointed out that he might be having trouble with pitches that are low and in. If that were the case, this could (it could be something else entirely) a result of not being able to effectively track a pitch in that area due to the movement of the head. Pitchers may have recognized this weakness in his hitting zone and are taking advantage.

 

Yeah, that was me, and I'd be curious to see what the data shows in that regard. As I said, it's completely based on what I'm seeing and nothing else, but it's struck me how it seems like he's swinging and missing pretty badly on low and inside pitches more than last year. Like you said, I'm assuming that's something that's out on him and pitchers are trying to take advantage.

[MWV]

After today's game, Rizzo has a .308 babip.

 

For line drives.

[sneakypower]

Besides, I'm not sure how this explains why he's swinging and badly missing at absolute garbage for a worrisome strikeout rate. That's the biggest problem right now.

swinging strike %

2012: 9.6%

2013: 9.3%

 

swings outside of the zone

2012: 38.5%

2013: 30.6%

 

i'm not remotely worried about him yet; he's just been pretty cursed so far, it happens over a SSS

 

this reminds me of last year when people were panicking over Shark's demise (in June?) when he was still pitching really well, just with unsustainable poor results

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, I'm not really panicking; more just mildly concerned.

 

And I'd still be curious to see an even more specific breakdown as to what pitches he's swinging at out of the zone. Less overall is obviously fantastic, but that still doesn't negate him having a semi-major exploit.

[Guest]

From my limited view of the games it looks to me like he's have trouble catching up to balls in and up in the zone. To me that's a direct result of dropping his hands. He doesn't do it every ab but even a slight difference will have problematic results.

[Guest]

Besides, I'm not sure how this explains why he's swinging and badly missing at absolute garbage for a worrisome strikeout rate. That's the biggest problem right now.

swinging strike %

2012: 9.6%

2013: 9.3%

 

swings outside of the zone

2012: 38.5%

2013: 30.6%

 

i'm not remotely worried about him yet; he's just been pretty cursed so far, it happens over a SSS

 

this reminds me of last year when people were panicking over Shark's demise (in June?) when he was still pitching really well, just with unsustainable poor results

 

his k% is up to 29%. i don't believe that you're really "not remotely worried"

[Rob]

Besides, I'm not sure how this explains why he's swinging and badly missing at absolute garbage for a worrisome strikeout rate. That's the biggest problem right now.

swinging strike %

2012: 9.6%

2013: 9.3%

 

swings outside of the zone

2012: 38.5%

2013: 30.6%

 

i'm not remotely worried about him yet; he's just been pretty cursed so far, it happens over a SSS

 

this reminds me of last year when people were panicking over Shark's demise (in June?) when he was still pitching really well, just with unsustainable poor results

 

Yeah, this. He's not doing anything different from last year. He's just had bad results to this point. I'm not reading anything into it.

[Guest]

Besides, I'm not sure how this explains why he's swinging and badly missing at absolute garbage for a worrisome strikeout rate. That's the biggest problem right now.

swinging strike %

2012: 9.6%

2013: 9.3%

 

swings outside of the zone

2012: 38.5%

2013: 30.6%

 

i'm not remotely worried about him yet; he's just been pretty cursed so far, it happens over a SSS

 

this reminds me of last year when people were panicking over Shark's demise (in June?) when he was still pitching really well, just with unsustainable poor results

 

his k% is up to 29%. i don't believe that you're really "not remotely worried"

 

He's swinging at fewer bad pitches and swinging and missing at strikes at a slightly lower rate than last year, hence him not worrying.

[Guest]

why is he striking out 12% more than he was last year?

 

i understand and agree with most everything he says, i just think "i'm not remotely worried yet" is hyperbole and hurts his case. when a guy striking out 29% of the time, you have to have at least some kind of concern about that, and it's worth talking about instead of pretending it doesn't exist.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

why is he striking out 12% more than he was last year?

 

That's a really good question. His swinging strike percentage is essentially identical to last year. I don't see anything obvious on his fangraphs PitchFX stats that would explain the drastic increase in strikeouts. I don't see anything unusual in the amount of balls he's seeing in the zone vs. out or in the mix of pitches thrown. He's actually swinging at balls out of the zone a bit less (35.1% to 31.1%) and making a higher percentage of contact in the zone (92.5% vs. 91.0%).

 

There's a few things different by a few percentage points here and there, but for the most part it all looks similar enough to last year.

 

A few things that do stand out:

His LD% is pretty down and his IFFB% is up.

Last year his P/PA was 3.68, this year it's 4.12.

Last year 48.6% of his PA went to two strikes and 34.6% of those went for Ks, this year it's 56.7% and 50.9% of those went for Ks.

 

So it seems like it's some combination of:

Not ending enough at-bats with line drives, which probably means he's fouling off more and thus getting to two strikes more.

Getting burned on two strikes way more often, despite not having a higher swinging strike percentage overall.

[Guest]

why is he striking out 12% more than he was last year?

 

That's a really good question. His swinging strike percentage is essentially identical to last year. I don't see anything obvious on his fangraphs PitchFX stats that would explain the drastic increase in strikeouts. I don't see anything unusual in the amount of balls he's seeing in the zone vs. out or in the mix of pitches thrown. He's actually swinging at balls out of the zone a bit less (35.1% to 31.1%) and making a higher percentage of contact in the zone (92.5% vs. 91.0%).

 

There's a few things different by a few percentage points here and there, but for the most part it all looks similar enough to last year.

 

A few things that do stand out:

His LD% is pretty down and his IFFB% is up.

Last year his P/PA was 3.68, this year it's 4.12.

Last year 48.6% of his PA went to two strikes and 34.6% of those went for Ks, this year it's 56.7% and 50.9% of those went for Ks.

 

So it seems like it's some combination of:

Not ending enough at-bats with line drives, which probably means he's fouling off more and thus getting to two strikes more.

Getting burned on two strikes way more often, despite not having a higher swinging strike percentage overall.

 

Yep. Taking more pitches -> getting deeper into counts.

[GammonsPocketTweets]

He needs a slumpbuster

[neely crenshaw]

Since they don't seem to want to give him a night off, at what point do they switch he and Schierholtz in the lineup. It may take off some pressure but mainly the team would be better off(right now) offensively with Nate hitting 3rd.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I definitely think that it might be time to give him a break from the 4 spot.

[Tracer Bullet]

I definitely think that it might be time to give him a break from the 4 spot.

 

Yeah that one game he hit 4th was too much.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's conceivable that you could have positive or negative variance in how your contact and pitch recognition components turn into strikeouts. Maybe Rizzo's actual strikeouts for one of the years aren't lining up with his strikeout peripherals, so to speak. It'd be neat to test if some sort of xK% was more predictive than actual K%.

 

 

                   K%   O-swing%   Z-zwing%   Swing%   O-contact%   Z-contact%   Contact%   Zone%   SwStr%
League average      20%     31%        65%       46%       66%          87%         79%        45%     9%
Rizzo 2012          17%     35%        68%       50%       64%          91%         81%        46%     10%
Rizzo 2013          29%     31%        66%       46%       57%          93%         79%        44%     10%

 

(with the exception of SwStr%, these all come from the PitchFX tab on Fangraphs, which has slightly different values than the other tab that has the same stats that I believe are hand-recorded by one of the stats services).

 

Why was Rizzo better than league average at avoiding K's last season? It seems to be just that he was swinging at more pitches than average and thus ending the PA with a BIP.

 

This year, he's swinging at fewer pitches, while making more contact in the zone and less contact out of the zone. His LD% has also gone down from 24% to 16%.

 

So his K's this year are a combination of taking more pitches and failing to drive the pitches he's making contact with, presumably fouling more off, which combine to cause him to get into more 2-strike counts. His inability to make contact at pitches outside the zone are causing him to get wiped out by those 2-strike counts more often.

 

When you look at his batted-ball data this year, you get a big drop in line drives and even a big drop in ground balls, but a big rise in pop-ups and fly balls (combined for 37% of his BIP last year vs. 56% this year).

 

So we've got Law reporting that it seems like he's getting his hands low and loading slower. We've got an inability to consistently put the ball in play earlier in the count. We've got a major increase in fly balls and pop-ups. Those all seem to work together, so I'm going to take it as true that he's developed some sort of mechanical hitch that he'll need to either consciously fix or just work his way out of.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I definitely think that it might be time to give him a break from the 4 spot.

 

Yeah that one game he hit 4th was too much.

 

3rd. Sorry.

 

Not that we have anyone that one would expect to see batting 3rd in a big league lineup. At least one that wants to be taken seriously. Unless you you really believe that guy with the .313/.362/.578 slash line is the real Nate Schierholtz. Which I'd very much like to believe. But I don't.

[J.R.]

Boom?

[Guest]

why is he striking out 12% more than he was last year?

 

That's a really good question. His swinging strike percentage is essentially identical to last year. I don't see anything obvious on his fangraphs PitchFX stats that would explain the drastic increase in strikeouts. I don't see anything unusual in the amount of balls he's seeing in the zone vs. out or in the mix of pitches thrown. He's actually swinging at balls out of the zone a bit less (35.1% to 31.1%) and making a higher percentage of contact in the zone (92.5% vs. 91.0%).

 

There's a few things different by a few percentage points here and there, but for the most part it all looks similar enough to last year.

 

A few things that do stand out:

His LD% is pretty down and his IFFB% is up.

Last year his P/PA was 3.68, this year it's 4.12.

Last year 48.6% of his PA went to two strikes and 34.6% of those went for Ks, this year it's 56.7% and 50.9% of those went for Ks.

 

So it seems like it's some combination of:

Not ending enough at-bats with line drives, which probably means he's fouling off more and thus getting to two strikes more.

Getting burned on two strikes way more often, despite not having a higher swinging strike percentage overall.

 

Yep. Taking more pitches -> getting deeper into counts.

 

that's a pretty simplistic view of it

[Rob]

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

 

For the uninitiated, that's how long it takes for a statistic to become reliable.

 

Rizzo seems to be taking some more pitches. But we are still a ways out from being able to reliably predict what impact that's going to have on his strikeout and walk rates. It's way too early to freak out.

[RynoRules]

Went lots o' yard last night

[scarey]

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

 

For the uninitiated, that's how long it takes for a statistic to become reliable.

 

Rizzo seems to be taking some more pitches. But we are still a ways out from being able to reliably predict what impact that's going to have on his strikeout and walk rates. It's way too early to freak out.

 

Huh... you found a better way to tell Kyle he was wasting his time than I was going to. Well done.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Huh... you found a better way to tell Kyle he was wasting his time than I was going to. Well done.

 

Cute. Wrong, but cute.

 

As always when we have these discussions, the thresholds aren't magical numbers where the statistic instantly switches from "completely meaningless" to "ZOMG now it means something!" in a single PA.