Random Cubs Musings

[Sammy Sofa]

You posted that for us to mock, right? It's terrible.

 

No, beyond the fact that the incredibly obvious point that it makes needs to be made, it's really not.

 

It's so bad. "Here's a bunch of different names with wildly different sample sizes, approaches, flaws and minor league careers, very few of which are similar to Baez! CALM DOWN!"

 

Saying that Baez isn't a bust yet is just common sense; that piece just went about "proving it" in a really hamfisted, poorly done way.

[Sammy Sofa]

The fact that he struggled badly in the big leagues at age 21 is closer to being a huge point in his favor than it is an indication that he's a bust.

 

That's the kind of lazy oversimplification that makes the article so bad. Snyder could have spent a bit of extra time actually comparing Baez to good, similar hitters who struggled along the lines that he has. Just throwing out the net for "any good hitters that struggled at all at the start of their career" is just self-fulfilling space-filler.

[Sammy Sofa]

Just to bring it close to home, that Rizzo struggled mightily in his first cup of coffee doesn't make me feel better about Baez outside of the basic similarities in that they were very young players who initially stunk.

[Guest]

The fact that he struggled badly in the big leagues at age 21 is closer to being a huge point in his favor than it is an indication that he's a bust.

 

That's the kind of lazy oversimplification that makes the article so bad. Snyder could have spent a bit of extra time actually comparing Baez to good, similar hitters who struggled along the lines that he has. Just throwing out the net for "any good hitters that struggled at all at the start of their career" is just self-fulfilling space-filler.

 

He's not doing anything but making the very obvious point (that seemingly still needs to be made) that he's really [expletive] young and in the big leagues already and that doing that is really rare and really good.

 

The examples brought up aren't supposed to be some sort of eye opening statistical comps. They're just there to add perspective.

 

Nobody is saying this was some greatly insightful piece to make you feel good about Javy. It's just a throwaway blog entry. Doesn't mean the point it makes isn't correct or doesn't need to be made.

[Guest]

I don't know if it is possible for Javy to get down to a 25% strikeout rate. But I think he could very realistically get down to 30-33%. Which means you could get peak Mark Reynolds production (plus speed) from a middle infielder. That's immensely valuable.

[Guest]

Just to bring it close to home, that Rizzo struggled mightily in his first cup of coffee doesn't make me feel better about Baez outside of the basic similarities in that they were very young players who initially stunk.

 

I thought the same reading it (and have thought that when others have brought it up)...but on the other hand, Rizzo did make mechanical adjustments that helped him get better against MLB pitching and maybe that does make me feel a little better about Javy, now that I think about it. Rizzo didn't struggle with contact in the minors but he obviously struck out a ton in a short stretch in SD.

[Sammy Sofa]

The fact that he struggled badly in the big leagues at age 21 is closer to being a huge point in his favor than it is an indication that he's a bust.

 

That's the kind of lazy oversimplification that makes the article so bad. Snyder could have spent a bit of extra time actually comparing Baez to good, similar hitters who struggled along the lines that he has. Just throwing out the net for "any good hitters that struggled at all at the start of their career" is just self-fulfilling space-filler.

 

He's not doing anything but making the very obvious point (that seemingly still needs to be made) that he's really [expletive] young and in the big leagues already and that doing that is really rare and really good.

 

The examples brought up aren't supposed to be some sort of eye opening statistical comps. They're just there to add perspective.

 

Nobody is saying this was some greatly insightful piece to make you feel good about Javy. It's just a throwaway blog entry. Doesn't mean the point it makes isn't correct or doesn't need to be made.

 

Who here besides Kyle (kind of) has been saying that Baez is already a bust? Why did this "needs" to be told to us? People not minding if the Cubs sell relatively high on him because they fear he could ultimately be a bust is not the same thing.

 

That was a lousy throwaway blog entry. Literally you simply posting "Javier Baez is not a bust" would have been more effective.

[Guest]

I don't know if it is possible for Javy to get down to a 25% strikeout rate. But I think he could very realistically get down to 30-33%. Which means you could get peak Mark Reynolds production (plus speed) from a middle infielder. That's immensely valuable.

 

And what I think it's reasonable to expect to be at least average, if not plus, 2B defense.

[treebird]

EDIT missed the last page, all my points already covered Edited November 15, 2014 by treebird

[Sammy Sofa]

Just to bring it close to home, that Rizzo struggled mightily in his first cup of coffee doesn't make me feel better about Baez outside of the basic similarities in that they were very young players who initially stunk.

 

I thought the same reading it (and have thought that when others have brought it up)...but on the other hand, Rizzo did make mechanical adjustments that helped him get better against MLB pitching and maybe that does make me feel a little better about Javy, now that I think about it. Rizzo didn't struggle with contact in the minors but he obviously struck out a ton in a short stretch in SD.

 

My concern is that Rizzo's adjustments were made based off of the good approach he already had. It seems like Baez would have to do a lot more than simply changing his mechanics (not that that can't happen). I would just prefer comparisons to players with a similar approach/career numbers.

[Guest]

 

Who here besides Kyle (kind of) has been saying that Baez is already a bust? Why did this "needs" to be told to us? People not minding if the Cubs sell relatively high on him because they fear he could ultimately be a bust is not the same thing.

 

That was a lousy throwaway blog entry. Literally you simply posting "Javier Baez is not a bust" would have been more effective.

 

I agree with you that most here don't need to be told this.

 

That said, I do think people (myself included) do lose sight of the fact that he's really young for where he is (and where he has earned his way to) and that a lot of great players would have looked beyond awful if thrown up against big league pitching at his age. He has lots and lots of time to figure out whatever he needs to figure out to best utilize his immense talent. That and he's just done a really crazy good thing by getting to where he is.

 

That and he has whatever physical/mental development humans do at those ages that makes baseball players generally progress the way they do (that's an awful way of putting that but I'm massively hungover right now so I just hope it makes sense)

[Guest]

Who here besides Kyle (kind of) has been saying that Baez is already a bust? Why did this "needs" to be told to us? People not minding if the Cubs sell relatively high on him because they fear he could ultimately be a bust is not the same thing.

 

That was a lousy throwaway blog entry. Literally you simply posting "Javier Baez is not a bust" would have been more effective.

sneaky hasn't said that he's already a bust, but has implied there is little hope he won't be one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think he's a bust yet. I think Cubs fans are *way* too quick to overlook the whiffiness problems with both he and Bryant.

[Sammy Sofa]

Who here besides Kyle (kind of) has been saying that Baez is already a bust? Why did this "needs" to be told to us? People not minding if the Cubs sell relatively high on him because they fear he could ultimately be a bust is not the same thing.

 

That was a lousy throwaway blog entry. Literally you simply posting "Javier Baez is not a bust" would have been more effective.

sneaky hasn't said that he's already a bust, but has implied there is little hope he won't be one.

 

MOTHER OF GOD.

 

http://hardtickettohomevideo.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/full-metal-jacket-soap-beating.gif?w=318

[Guest]

Also, probably just hungover rambling here, but I realize my stance on Javy might seem to conflict with my stance on Bryant, but really that has to do more with the overall perception on both. I think Bryant is a better hitter than Javy (though Javy IS a year younger), but both swing and miss a lot and that's probably going to lead to some significant struggles as they figure it out.

 

I'll be wonderfully pleasantly surprised if Bryant mashes out of the gate. I really really want him to. I'm scared, tho.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What scares me about Bryant is that he's being very selective about which pitches he swings at and he's *still* swinging and missing 35% of the time or whatever in a league where Casey Coleman's an above average pitcher.

[Guest]

Who here besides Kyle (kind of) has been saying that Baez is already a bust? Why did this "needs" to be told to us? People not minding if the Cubs sell relatively high on him because they fear he could ultimately be a bust is not the same thing.

 

That was a lousy throwaway blog entry. Literally you simply posting "Javier Baez is not a bust" would have been more effective.

sneaky hasn't said that he's already a bust, but has implied there is little hope he won't be one.

 

MOTHER OF GOD.

 

http://hardtickettohomevideo.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/full-metal-jacket-soap-beating.gif?w=318

ok

[Guest]

What scares me about Bryant is that he's being very selective about which pitches he swings at and he's *still* swinging and missing 35% of the time or whatever in a league where Casey Coleman's an above average pitcher.

 

I remember early on in his big league stint, that Javy's contact rate in the strike zone really wasn't all that bad. Did that hold?

[Guest]

What scares me about Bryant is that he's being very selective about which pitches he swings at and he's *still* swinging and missing 35% of the time or whatever in a league where Casey Coleman's an above average pitcher.

 

I remember early on in his big league stint, that Javy's contact rate in the strike zone really wasn't all that bad. Did that hold?

His z-contact% was 77.5%. That would put him next to last amongst qualified batters. Above only BJ Upton.

[Sammy Sofa]

Who here besides Kyle (kind of) has been saying that Baez is already a bust? Why did this "needs" to be told to us? People not minding if the Cubs sell relatively high on him because they fear he could ultimately be a bust is not the same thing.

 

That was a lousy throwaway blog entry. Literally you simply posting "Javier Baez is not a bust" would have been more effective.

sneaky hasn't said that he's already a bust, but has implied there is little hope he won't be one.

 

MOTHER OF GOD.

 

http://hardtickettohomevideo.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/full-metal-jacket-soap-beating.gif?w=318

ok

 

Hey, you ratted him out.

[Guest]

His o-contact% was only 42.1%, which is off the charts horrible. Even among players age 22 and under he was 7.4% worse than everyone else...while swinging at the 4th highest percentage of those pitches amongst those players.

 

Amonst qualified players, he would still be worst on contact outside the zone and top 5 in swinging at such pitches.

[Guest]

I mean, I'm not saying Tony Gwynn would've struck out 40% of the time if he reached the big leagues at 21, but Pedro Alvarez might've.

[Guest]

His o-contact% was only 42.1%, which is off the charts horrible. Even among players age 22 and under he was 7.4% worse than everyone else...while swinging at the 4th highest percentage of those pitches amongst those players.

 

Amonst qualified players, he would still be worst on contact outside the zone and top 5 in swinging at such pitches.

 

Yeah, he was out of his mind most of the time in terms of pitch selection. I know he takes his lumps really badly, but damn.

[Guest]

I mean, I'm not saying Tony Gwynn would've struck out 40% of the time if he reached the big leagues at 21, but Pedro Alvarez might've.

Here are the players who got 50+ ab's at age 21 in 2014. Javy's contact issues are sooo much worse than anyone else there.

 

And holy crap, Machado + Harper are still on that list.

[Guest]

I mean, I'm not saying Tony Gwynn would've struck out 40% of the time if he reached the big leagues at 21, but Pedro Alvarez might've.

Here are the players who got 50+ ab's at age 21 in 2014. Javy's contact issues are sooo much worse than anyone else there.

 

And holy crap, Machado + Harper are still on that list.

 

Well, yeah, those guys are all any combination of better, more experienced, more contact oriented hitters who don't hit the ball as hard, etc.

 

I'm just saying there are probably a good amount of successful MLBers who strike out and hit for huge power who would have been horribly overmatched at age 21 but were in a lower level of baseball. And probably most of them wouldn't play 2B/SS.