The 2012 Offseason Thread

[davell]

Well, Hendry left nothing. I think you're overstating things though. Our medium term rotation needs are strictly replacing Garza. We could go into next year with Shark/E-Jax/Wood/Villanueva all set, Vizcaino as a,legit possibility, FA options, and trade possibilities, with Baker, Feldman, and Garza all being options too. Its not a ton of work though. A TOR guy is needed. About 20 teams in baseball can say the same thing. And quite a few of them need more than just that.

 

You named 8 guys in that post and 4 of them were either here from Hendry or were acquired from Hendry pieces. I don't know why just because we've chosen to go down this route, people have to change what they were saying 18 months ago about the status of the franchise.

I think that the team Theo inherited had bottom 5 talent, top to bottom in MLB. Now, I do think Theo will get slightly more credit for our system than he likely deserves, because most of the talent Hendry left behind was very, very far away. Of course, the development of these guys could be somewhat different as well between the two regimes. But, the talent we had at that point was so far away, most of it was untradeable.(at least for full potential value or even remotely close to it). But, top to bottom, I think we had a roster without a lot of upside and not a lot of tradeable pieces(due to age partially). I think I remember looking rosters up and only seeing the Twins, Indians, and Astros as being definitively in worse shape than us.

[Backtobanks]

Well, Hendry left nothing. I think you're overstating things though. Our medium term rotation needs are strictly replacing Garza. We could go into next year with Shark/E-Jax/Wood/Villanueva all set, Vizcaino as a,legit possibility, FA options, and trade possibilities, with Baker, Feldman, and Garza all being options too. Its not a ton of work though. A TOR guy is needed. About 20 teams in baseball can say the same thing. And quite a few of them need more than just that.

 

You named 8 guys in that post and 4 of them were either here from Hendry or were acquired from Hendry pieces. I don't know why just because we've chosen to go down this route, people have to change what they were saying 18 months ago about the status of the franchise.

I think that the team Theo inherited had bottom 5 talent, top to bottom in MLB. Now, I do think Theo will get slightly more credit for our system than he likely deserves, because most of the talent Hendry left behind was very, very far away. Of course, the development of these guys could be somewhat different as well between the two regimes. But, the talent we had at that point was so far away, most of it was untradeable.(at least for full potential value or even remotely close to it). But, top to bottom, I think we had a roster without a lot of upside and not a lot of tradeable pieces(due to age partially). I think I remember looking rosters up and only seeing the Twins, Indians, and Astros as being definitively in worse shape than us.

 

We have a ton of potential that is still a long way from ML ready offensively and near zero in pitching, so I'm not sure how high our system ought to be rated. As for looking at ML rosters, we are ahead of the Astros and Marlins. As long as everyone believes that our young players will continue to improve, our prospects will reach their full potential, and that the FO will spend enough money wisely when the time comes, we are much better. Of course that depends on lots of conditional statements.

[Guest]

I think that the team Theo inherited had bottom 5 talent, top to bottom in MLB. Now, I do think Theo will get slightly more credit for our system than he likely deserves, because most of the talent Hendry left behind was very, very far away. Of course, the development of these guys could be somewhat different as well between the two regimes. But, the talent we had at that point was so far away, most of it was untradeable.(at least for full potential value or even remotely close to it). But, top to bottom, I think we had a roster without a lot of upside and not a lot of tradeable pieces(due to age partially). I think I remember looking rosters up and only seeing the Twins, Indians, and Astros as being definitively in worse shape than us.

I think the 2011 draft did a lot to bolster the farm system. While the talent was far away and untradeable at that time, I don't think it is fair to exclude it when evaluating where the talent level was when the transition took place.

 

Actually, we also spent a ton in IFA that year, but I'm not sure how much we'll reap from that class.

[Guest]

We have a ton of potential that is still a long way from ML ready offensively and near zero in pitching, so I'm not sure how high our system ought to be rated. As for looking at ML rosters, we are ahead of the Astros and Marlins. As long as everyone believes that our young players will continue to improve, our prospects will reach their full potential, and that the FO will spend enough money wisely when the time comes, we are much better. Of course that depends on lots of conditional statements.

Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood + Paniagua >> "near zero"

[Backtobanks]

We have a ton of potential that is still a long way from ML ready offensively and near zero in pitching, so I'm not sure how high our system ought to be rated. As for looking at ML rosters, we are ahead of the Astros and Marlins. As long as everyone believes that our young players will continue to improve, our prospects will reach their full potential, and that the FO will spend enough money wisely when the time comes, we are much better. Of course that depends on lots of conditional statements.

Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood + Paniagua >> "near zero"

 

I agree that those pitching prospects are greater than "near zero", but really are they any better than the pitching prospects left by Hendry that everybody describes as "bottom five", "cupboard is bare", etc. ?

[davell]

Yes, by quite a bit.

[Backtobanks]

Yes, by quite a bit.

 

I guess we'll have to wait and see if any of them develop into solid ML pitchers, but there certainly was more anticipation in 2011 with Cashner, McNutt, Carpenter, Dolis, Maples, Jackson, etc.

[Guest]

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 from last offseason:

 

Trey McNutt (4th overall)

Dillon Maples (5)

Rafael Dolis (7)

Dae-Eun Rhee (11)

Dallas Beeler (12)

Chris Carpenter (13)

Toby Zych (15)

Robert Whitenack (19)

 

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 this offseason:

 

Arodys Vizcaino (4)

Pierce Johnson (6)

Kyuji Fujikawa (9) - not really a prospect

Juan Carlos Paniagua (11)

Alberto Cabrera (13) - a holdover from the Hendry era

Paul Blackburn (16)

Duane Underwood (17)

Dillon Maples (18) - another Hendry holdover

 

So yes, Epstein and Hoyer have collected better pitching prospects than those Hendry left behind. That was just an ugly set of pitchers on last offseason's list.

[Backtobanks]

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 from last offseason:

 

Trey McNutt (4th overall)

Dillon Maples (5)

Rafael Dolis (7)

Dae-Eun Rhee (11)

Dallas Beeler (12)

Chris Carpenter (13)

Toby Zych (15)

Robert Whitenack (19)

 

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 this offseason:

 

Arodys Vizcaino (4)

Pierce Johnson (6)

Kyuji Fujikawa (9) - not really a prospect

Juan Carlos Paniagua (11)

Alberto Cabrera (13) - a holdover from the Hendry era

Paul Blackburn (16)

Duane Underwood (17)

Dillon Maples (18) - another Hendry holdover

 

So yes, Epstein and Hoyer have collected better pitching prospects than those Hendry left behind. That was just an ugly set of pitchers on last offseason's list.

 

It's difficult to compare pitching prospects until they make it to the ML level. Also, it's hard to compare the Hendry era to this FO because the situations are so different. Hendry was ordered to build a winning team at the ML level and used many of his minor league pitching prospects to acquire ML players. Theo and Hoyer are sacrificing the ML level and acquiring prospects by trading ML players. The strength of our minor league system is now offensive players and some of them will probably be used in trades to acquire ML pitching at some point.

[Guest]

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 from last offseason:

 

Trey McNutt (4th overall)

Dillon Maples (5)

Rafael Dolis (7)

Dae-Eun Rhee (11)

Dallas Beeler (12)

Chris Carpenter (13)

Toby Zych (15)

Robert Whitenack (19)

 

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 this offseason:

 

Arodys Vizcaino (4)

Pierce Johnson (6)

Kyuji Fujikawa (9) - not really a prospect

Juan Carlos Paniagua (11)

Alberto Cabrera (13) - a holdover from the Hendry era

Paul Blackburn (16)

Duane Underwood (17)

Dillon Maples (18) - another Hendry holdover

 

So yes, Epstein and Hoyer have collected better pitching prospects than those Hendry left behind. That was just an ugly set of pitchers on last offseason's list.

 

It's difficult to compare pitching prospects until they make it to the ML level. Also, it's hard to compare the Hendry era to this FO because the situations are so different. Hendry was ordered to build a winning team at the ML level and used many of his minor league pitching prospects to acquire ML players. Theo and Hoyer are sacrificing the ML level and acquiring prospects by trading ML players. The strength of our minor league system is now offensive players and some of them will probably be used in trades to acquire ML pitching at some point.

 

I disagree with your initial sentence. To say it's difficult to compare pitching prospects until they reach the big leagues is a total cop out. You can judge stuff, stats, scouting reports, eyewitness reports and injury history before they reach the big leagues.

 

You've changed the goal posts with the bolded portion of your post. You initially only said this, which is what I responded to:

 

I agree that those pitching prospects are greater than "near zero", but really are they any better than the pitching prospects left by Hendry that everybody describes as "bottom five", "cupboard is bare", etc. ?

 

You were only talking about the quality of the prospects previously, never about the constraints the two regimes were operating under.

[Guest]

"I don't care about walks," Amaro said in January. "I care about production. To be frank with you, I've said this all along. All of the sabermatricians and all of the people who think they know exactly what makes a good club . . . to me, it's more about run production and being able to score runs and drive in runs."

 

 

Amaro said those words during an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in response to his signing of outfielder Delmon Young. To evaluate him, the Phillies relied on seven-year-old scouting reports from the outfielder's days as a Tampa Bay farmhand. Two of Amaro's assistants, Scott Proefrock and Bart Braun, were members of the Rays organization when Young was selected first overall in the 2003 draft. They vouched for Young's ability.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It shows how bad the pitching side of things was that we can make some decent progress (trade for Vizcaino, draft a ton of them) and still be so awful.

[Guest]

Justin Verlander and Buster Posey both signed long term extensions today. Clayton Kershaw is expected to get one sometime soon.

[Clem Fandango]

Justin Verlander and Buster Posey both signed long term extensions today. Clayton Kershaw is expected to get one sometime soon.

 

Tigers signed RHP Justin Verlander to a five-year, $140 million extension with a vesting option for 2020.

Verlander was under contract for two more years at $20 million per season, but he'll now earn an additional $140 million over the five seasons after that and will get a total of $202 million if his vesting option kicks in. The option will vest if he finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting in 2019. It's a ton of money to commit to a pitcher, especially with how many innings Verlander has piled up in recent seasons. He's earned it, though, after winning the AL MVP and Cy Young in 2011 and finishing runner-up in the Cy Young last season.

 

Giants signed C Buster Posey to an eight-year, $159 million extension with a $21.4 million club option for 2022.

The deal is being added to his $8 million contract for this season, so he'll receive a total of $167 million and will be under team control for at least nine more seasons. The contract, which also contains a no-trade clause, buys out Posey's three remaining arbitration years, as well as at least five free agency seasons. The reigning National League MVP, Posey bounced back from a horrific injury in 2011 to bat .336/.408/.549 with 24 homers and 103 RBI last season.

 

Gottdamn

[KingCubsFan]

Starlin's contract is looking better and better.

[Backtobanks]

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 from last offseason:

 

Trey McNutt (4th overall)

Dillon Maples (5)

Rafael Dolis (7)

Dae-Eun Rhee (11)

Dallas Beeler (12)

Chris Carpenter (13)

Toby Zych (15)

Robert Whitenack (19)

 

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 this offseason:

 

Arodys Vizcaino (4)

Pierce Johnson (6)

Kyuji Fujikawa (9) - not really a prospect

Juan Carlos Paniagua (11)

Alberto Cabrera (13) - a holdover from the Hendry era

Paul Blackburn (16)

Duane Underwood (17)

Dillon Maples (18) - another Hendry holdover

 

So yes, Epstein and Hoyer have collected better pitching prospects than those Hendry left behind. That was just an ugly set of pitchers on last offseason's list.

 

It's difficult to compare pitching prospects until they make it to the ML level. Also, it's hard to compare the Hendry era to this FO because the situations are so different. Hendry was ordered to build a winning team at the ML level and used many of his minor league pitching prospects to acquire ML players. Theo and Hoyer are sacrificing the ML level and acquiring prospects by trading ML players. The strength of our minor league system is now offensive players and some of them will probably be used in trades to acquire ML pitching at some point.

 

I disagree with your initial sentence. To say it's difficult to compare pitching prospects until they reach the big leagues is a total cop out. You can judge stuff, stats, scouting reports, eyewitness reports and injury history before they reach the big leagues.

 

You've changed the goal posts with the bolded portion of your post. You initially only said this, which is what I responded to:

 

I agree that those pitching prospects are greater than "near zero", but really are they any better than the pitching prospects left by Hendry that everybody describes as "bottom five", "cupboard is bare", etc. ?

 

You were only talking about the quality of the prospects previously, never about the constraints the two regimes were operating under.

 

I stand by my original statement that our pitching prospects now aren't any better than the ones under Hendry. Looking at the "stuff, stats, scouting reports, eyewitness reports and injury history before they reach the big leagues" of this year's prospects shows a few injury reports, problems with mechanics and command, and mediocre-to-fair scouting reports in most cases. Again, the FO has emphasized offense (with good reason) for their draft picks and signings. Under much of Hendry's reign the better prospects were pitching prospects with very little in the way of offense.

[Guest]

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 from last offseason:

 

Trey McNutt (4th overall)

Dillon Maples (5)

Rafael Dolis (7)

Dae-Eun Rhee (11)

Dallas Beeler (12)

Chris Carpenter (13)

Toby Zych (15)

Robert Whitenack (19)

 

BA's Cubs pitching prospects in their top 20 this offseason:

 

Arodys Vizcaino (4)

Pierce Johnson (6)

Kyuji Fujikawa (9) - not really a prospect

Juan Carlos Paniagua (11)

Alberto Cabrera (13) - a holdover from the Hendry era

Paul Blackburn (16)

Duane Underwood (17)

Dillon Maples (18) - another Hendry holdover

 

So yes, Epstein and Hoyer have collected better pitching prospects than those Hendry left behind. That was just an ugly set of pitchers on last offseason's list.

 

I thought Maples's arm fell off or something. Is he actually healthy now?

[Guest]

Nope. Not healthy.

 

Their ranking came out before he got injured again.

[Guest]

Nope. Not healthy.

 

Their ranking came out before he got injured again.

 

He's not? I thought Phil was wrong about that and he was seen back on the mound like two days later.

[Guest]

I stand by my original statement that our pitching prospects now aren't any better than the ones under Hendry. Looking at the "stuff, stats, scouting reports, eyewitness reports and injury history before they reach the big leagues" of this year's prospects shows a few injury reports, problems with mechanics and command, and mediocre-to-fair scouting reports in most cases. Again, the FO has emphasized offense (with good reason) for their draft picks and signings. Under much of Hendry's reign the better prospects were pitching prospects with very little in the way of offense.

 

Then you stand by being wrong because Vizcaino and probably Paniagua are better than anything that was here when Hendry was fired.

[Guest]

So Kershaw has to get more than Verlander, right? He's going into his age 25 season now so if he hits free agency, it will be entering his age 27 season (2015) and that's still three years younger than Verlander is this year.

 

And when Harper and Trout hit free agency, they've got a chance to top the ARod deals.

[Guest]

So Kershaw has to get more than Verlander, right? He's going into his age 25 season now so if he hits free agency, it will be entering his age 27 season (2015) and that's still three years younger than Verlander is this year.

 

And when Harper and Trout hit free agency, they've got a chance to top the ARod deals.

 

http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/03/29/sources-clayton-kershaw-to-be-a-200-million-dollar-man/16755

 

None of that seems all that interesting any longer, because I can reliably report that Clayton Kershaw is going to sign an eight-year, $200m (or possibly slightly more) extension with the Dodgers, possibly as soon as tonight. If so, that would blow away all of us — myself included — who thought that $200m was an unattainable goal, though clearly deals since then have impacted that.

 

No word yet on the structure of the deal, but if it begins in 2013, as I expect it would, then it would cover Kershaw’s age 25-32 seasons. It’s a ludicrous amount of money, but that is exactly the timeframe I want a pitcher, and Kershaw’s obviously the kind of pitcher (and person) you’d want to lock up for that.

 

It’s not official yet, but I expect it to be in the next 24-48 hours, if not sooner. Much more to come, no doubt.

[Guest]

Nope. Not healthy.

 

Their ranking came out before he got injured again.

 

He's not? I thought Phil was wrong about that and he was seen back on the mound like two days later.

 

You're right, Maples was pitching and healthy per Arizona Phil's most recent post a few days ago. He had a foot injury, earlier in spring training, thankfully not another arm injury.

[Guest]

I stand by my original statement that our pitching prospects now aren't any better than the ones under Hendry. Looking at the "stuff, stats, scouting reports, eyewitness reports and injury history before they reach the big leagues" of this year's prospects shows a few injury reports, problems with mechanics and command, and mediocre-to-fair scouting reports in most cases. Again, the FO has emphasized offense (with good reason) for their draft picks and signings. Under much of Hendry's reign the better prospects were pitching prospects with very little in the way of offense.

 

Then you stand by being wrong because Vizcaino and probably Paniagua are better than anything that was here when Hendry was fired.

 

Definitely. Either Backtobanks is misremembering how well the pitchers were thought of last year, didn't pay that close attention to prospect reports or is showing his bias.

[Guest]

Tyler colvin was sent to the minors today. OMG WORST TRADE IN CUBS HISTORY!!!1!!!1!!!111