The 2012 Offseason Thread

[NonProfitCow]

Here are a couple different examples:

 

Halladay: 3 yrs / $60M

Cliff Lee: 5 yrs / $120M

 

Both better bets than Felix at 7/$175. It is not impossible to get great players for less than exorbitant prices.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png

 

Pitcher aging curves link

Edited February 11, 2013 by NonProfitCow

[Guest]

Wait, 5 years and 24 million per for 32 year old Cliff Lee is okay, but 7 years and 25 million per for 26 year old Felix is outrageous?

 

EDIT: Felix is 8 years younger and trails Lee in career fWAR by 3 and bWAR by 2.

[davell]

If we win a World Series and our payroll is higher than 12.5 mill, I'll feel we bought us a championship.......Seriously though: Tim, while it may be safer to spend big on hitters, a team with plenty of financial resources, should have no issue at all giving out a longterm contract to a true staff ace. Worst case scenario is we operate on 20 mill less payroll. Which can be taken care of by having cheap, cost controlled guys anyway. Best case scenario is you get a perennial CY Young contender, something less than a third of MLB has.

[Cubswin11]

Here are a couple different examples:

 

Halladay: 3 yrs / $60M

Cliff Lee: 5 yrs / $120M

 

Both better bets than Felix at 7/$175. It is not impossible to get great players for less than exorbitant prices.

Greg Maddux's first contract with the braves was 5/$28, better bet than all of those contract. That should be the maximum amount in years and dollars we offer to any free agent pitchers

Edited February 11, 2013 by Cubswin11

[Tracer Bullet]

isnt he in his arb years still? why the [expletive] is he even being mentioned in this conversation

Because goony said something obviously wrong and I used him as a counter example.

You don't think Kershaw will be paid an exorbitant amount when he hits FA?

That's not the point. He's on a team and providing great performance and he's not being paid an exorbitant amount. Goony said that was impossible.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

He said "get" which means to most people "acquire." He didn't say no team has ever had a great player that wasn't paid an exorbitant amount.

[Sammy Sofa]

isnt he in his arb years still? why the [expletive] is he even being mentioned in this conversation

Because goony said something obviously wrong and I used him as a counter example.

You don't think Kershaw will be paid an exorbitant amount when he hits FA?

That's not the point. He's on a team and providing great performance and he's not being paid an exorbitant amount. Goony said that was impossible.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

So tweak things a bit to understand he was obviously talking about signing FA or keeping top tier players like Felix.

[Guest]

isnt he in his arb years still? why the [expletive] is he even being mentioned in this conversation

Because goony said something obviously wrong and I used him as a counter example.

You don't think Kershaw will be paid an exorbitant amount when he hits FA?

That's not the point. He's on a team and providing great performance and he's not being paid an exorbitant amount. Goony said that was impossible.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

So tweak things a bit to understand he was obviously talking about signing FA or keeping top tier players like Felix.

So, Longoria.

[Guest]

Here are a couple different examples:

 

Halladay: 3 yrs / $60M

Cliff Lee: 5 yrs / $120M

 

Both better bets than Felix at 7/$175. It is not impossible to get great players for less than exorbitant prices.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png

 

Pitcher aging curves link

Thanks - but most of those curves suffer from a survivor fallacy issue. Since there's no information on how they performed the study, it's hard to judge the usefulness of the information.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you're assuming Longoria's contract is any kind of a norm for a player of that caliber?

[Guest]

So you're assuming Longoria's contract is any kind of a norm for a player of that caliber?

Again, an example to show it isn't impossible to have a great player at less than exorbitant prices. What is my burden of proof to show that statement is dumb no matter how you want to try to defend it?

[Guest]

btw - the only one providing any real argument other than, "duh, it's king felix!" is TT.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you're assuming Longoria's contract is any kind of a norm for a player of that caliber?

Again, an example to show it isn't impossible to have a great player at less than exorbitant prices. What is my burden of proof to show that statement is dumb no matter how you want to try to defend it?

 

So your plan is to pray to the gods and sacrifice many animals that any FA the Cubs are targeting or top tier players they're developing are represented by Paul Cohen?

[Sammy Sofa]

btw - the only one providing any real argument other than, "duh, it's king felix!" is TT.

 

Glad to see you're rightly including yourself in that equation.

[Guest]

btw - the only one providing any real argument other than, "duh, it's king felix!" is TT.

 

Glad to see you're rightly including yourself in that equation.

Whether you agree or disagree, I've at least provided reasoning behind what I've said.

 

To be fair, a few people have brought up expanding payrolls as a rationale for spending like drunken sailors.

[Guest]

So you're assuming Longoria's contract is any kind of a norm for a player of that caliber?

Again, an example to show it isn't impossible to have a great player at less than exorbitant prices. What is my burden of proof to show that statement is dumb no matter how you want to try to defend it?

 

So your plan is to pray to the gods and sacrifice many animals that any FA the Cubs are targeting or top tier players they're developing are represented by Paul Cohen?

Do you not understand the concept of "impossible" that I was specifically answering?

[Guest]

Apparently, Rosenthal mentioned the Cubs as a possible landing spot for Bourn this morning on MLB Network.

[davell]

While Felix is the name being talked about here, this actual discussion is more likely to become relevant talking about David Price next offseason. We'll have a choice to make between giing after him or Stanton. My honest guess is Price come quite a bit cheaper, in terms of what we'd have to give up. Considering we could trade for him, keep Garza, and have Shark and E-Jax in place, it'd leave us plenty of money to spend on hitting. With Castro, Rizzo, and hopefully Castillo entrenched as longterm answers. Tim, no one's debating whether or not its a better idea to take a pitcher over a hitter. It's not. But THIS team is much better equipped to take the chance on an ace than most are. Due to Castro and Rizzo and the strength of our hitting in the lower levels(even after taking into account it could take Baez and Almora to get a Price). At any rate, its not stupidly spending money at a problem. Its filling a gigantic hole that most teams have, while still leaving money to spend elsewhere as well.

[Guest]

Kaplan with some stuff on Prior

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/kap-mark-prior-wants-one-more-shot?awid=5198668769611372847-914

 

"Mark definitely would like to take another run at making it back to the big leagues," Boggs said. "He has been working exceptionally hard over the last couple of years and his velocity is back up to 92-93."

 

"He wants one more chance to prove he can pitch in the big leagues. He just wants an opportunity. If he can't do it, he can't do it, but he wants one more chance."

 

The Cubs recently invited Prior back to Chicago to speak to the top prospects in the Cubs system and he impressed the Cubs hierarchy with his candor and level of preparation. He was open and honest about his career as a Cub and the mistakes he felt he made as he was starting on his big league journey.

 

However, at this point in time the Cubs have had zero conversations about extending Prior an offer to join them in spring training, although sources tell me that they have not closed the door on that possibility.

 

Kind of funny that they haven't had any conversations about making him an offer but haven't closed the door on the possibility. I guess that makes sense.

[WrigleyField 22]

Kaplan with some stuff on Prior

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/kap-mark-prior-wants-one-more-shot?awid=5198668769611372847-914

 

"Mark definitely would like to take another run at making it back to the big leagues," Boggs said. "He has been working exceptionally hard over the last couple of years and his velocity is back up to 92-93."

 

"He wants one more chance to prove he can pitch in the big leagues. He just wants an opportunity. If he can't do it, he can't do it, but he wants one more chance."

 

The Cubs recently invited Prior back to Chicago to speak to the top prospects in the Cubs system and he impressed the Cubs hierarchy with his candor and level of preparation. He was open and honest about his career as a Cub and the mistakes he felt he made as he was starting on his big league journey.

 

However, at this point in time the Cubs have had zero conversations about extending Prior an offer to join them in spring training, although sources tell me that they have not closed the door on that possibility.

 

Kind of funny that they haven't had any conversations about making him an offer but haven't closed the door on the possibility. I guess that makes sense.

Maybe if they're awful again they'll sign him in August to create buzz.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Guest]

While Felix is the name being talked about here, this actual discussion is more likely to become relevant talking about David Price next offseason. We'll have a choice to make between giing after him or Stanton. My honest guess is Price come quite a bit cheaper, in terms of what we'd have to give up. Considering we could trade for him, keep Garza, and have Shark and E-Jax in place, it'd leave us plenty of money to spend on hitting. With Castro, Rizzo, and hopefully Castillo entrenched as longterm answers. Tim, no one's debating whether or not its a better idea to take a pitcher over a hitter. It's not. But THIS team is much better equipped to take the chance on an ace than most are. Due to Castro and Rizzo and the strength of our hitting in the lower levels(even after taking into account it could take Baez and Almora to get a Price). At any rate, its not stupidly spending money at a problem. Its filling a gigantic hole that most teams have, while still leaving money to spend elsewhere as well.

 

Since you brought up Price, and as further illustration of the exception that Felix's situation presents:

 

Price: 27.5 years old, 15.5 career fWAR

Felix: 26.8 years old, 38.3 career fWAR

 

 

You don't give Felix an outrageous contract because he's an ace, you do so because he's had the best start to a career since Clemens, and the risk of paying him 5, even 10 million more per season than he'll earn is far lower than the risk of lost value in trading him or letting him leave.

[Guest]

While Felix is the name being talked about here, this actual discussion is more likely to become relevant talking about David Price next offseason. We'll have a choice to make between giing after him or Stanton. My honest guess is Price come quite a bit cheaper, in terms of what we'd have to give up. Considering we could trade for him, keep Garza, and have Shark and E-Jax in place, it'd leave us plenty of money to spend on hitting. With Castro, Rizzo, and hopefully Castillo entrenched as longterm answers. Tim, no one's debating whether or not its a better idea to take a pitcher over a hitter. It's not. But THIS team is much better equipped to take the chance on an ace than most are. Due to Castro and Rizzo and the strength of our hitting in the lower levels(even after taking into account it could take Baez and Almora to get a Price). At any rate, its not stupidly spending money at a problem. Its filling a gigantic hole that most teams have, while still leaving money to spend elsewhere as well.

If it comes down to a choice between Stanton and Price for a long term deal, I'd pick Stanton. He has his own red flags, but he's a much better bet to maintain his production for 6+ years than Price.

[Sammy Sofa]

btw - the only one providing any real argument other than, "duh, it's king felix!" is TT.

 

Glad to see you're rightly including yourself in that equation.

Whether you agree or disagree, I've at least provided reasoning behind what I've said.

 

"Duh, it's King Felix" IS a legitimate reasoning behind many of the opinions here. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it not an argument.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you're assuming Longoria's contract is any kind of a norm for a player of that caliber?

Again, an example to show it isn't impossible to have a great player at less than exorbitant prices. What is my burden of proof to show that statement is dumb no matter how you want to try to defend it?

 

So your plan is to pray to the gods and sacrifice many animals that any FA the Cubs are targeting or top tier players they're developing are represented by Paul Cohen?

Do you not understand the concept of "impossible" that I was specifically answering?

 

Yes, I understand you're picking on a single post as narrowly as possible to try and make it sound like someone was saying it was impossible to acquire elite talent any other way besides excessive FA spending. Every single person here with a pulse has a basic understanding of how baseball teams work, and for you to spin that as someone not realizing that teams can ideally develop elite talent for several cheap years as opposed to a response to the main discussion about extending an elite player or singing one from the FA market is equal parts tedious and laughable.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

While Felix is the name being talked about here, this actual discussion is more likely to become relevant talking about David Price next offseason. We'll have a choice to make between giing after him or Stanton. My honest guess is Price come quite a bit cheaper, in terms of what we'd have to give up. Considering we could trade for him, keep Garza, and have Shark and E-Jax in place, it'd leave us plenty of money to spend on hitting. With Castro, Rizzo, and hopefully Castillo entrenched as longterm answers. Tim, no one's debating whether or not its a better idea to take a pitcher over a hitter. It's not. But THIS team is much better equipped to take the chance on an ace than most are. Due to Castro and Rizzo and the strength of our hitting in the lower levels(even after taking into account it could take Baez and Almora to get a Price). At any rate, its not stupidly spending money at a problem. Its filling a gigantic hole that most teams have, while still leaving money to spend elsewhere as well.

 

Since you brought up Price, and as further illustration of the exception that Felix's situation presents:

 

Price: 27.5 years old, 15.5 career fWAR

Felix: 26.8 years old, 38.3 career fWAR

 

 

You don't give Felix an outrageous contract because he's an ace, you do so because he's had the best start to a career since Clemens, and the risk of paying him 5, even 10 million more per season than he'll earn is far lower than the risk of lost value in trading him or letting him leave.

I'll agree that if I were to make an exception for anyone, it would be Felix. He's been an extraordinary player so far. But the mileage on that arm would still prevent me from offering a seven year deal (let alone a five year one that doesn't start until two years from now).

 

I'll go back to comparisons and limit it as close as possible. Since 1980, here are the top pitchers in WAR through age 26:

 

Gooden: 45.4

Clemens: 39.8

Felix: 38.3

Saberhagen: 36.7

Valenzuela: 36.0

 

From there, it's a pretty steep drop off. So, over the past 30+ years, here are the five guys who did the best through that age. We obviously don't know how Felix will pan out yet.

 

You can say that drugs are what ruined Gooden, but it's just as likely that his arm wears down even without the drugs. He ended up with 58.1 WAR for his career, or just an extra 12.7 after age 26.

 

Clemens is the obvious success story here, but if drugs are a caveat with Gooden, they are with Clemens, as well.

 

Saberhagen is the middle of the road projection. He peaked in his sixth season in the league. He got injured in his seventh season and wasn't the same afterwards. He posted a couple more 5 WAR seasons, but was thoroughly mediocre other than that. Given his style of pitching, he's not the best comp, though. He ended up with an extra 24.8 WAR in the rest of his career.

 

Fernando is another who shone brightly and then flamed out early. You can say he was long enough ago that medicine could have perhaps kept him going longer. But after putting up 36 WAR through age 26, he managed only 5.7 more for his entire career.

 

I get what you're saying with Felix. Through age 26, he is one of the greats and is on an inner-circle projection. As were the other guys on this list with comparable beginnings to their careers. One made it. Three didn't for various reasons. You want to paint this as a slam dunk, but it just isn't one.

[Guest]

btw - the only one providing any real argument other than, "duh, it's king felix!" is TT.

 

Glad to see you're rightly including yourself in that equation.

Whether you agree or disagree, I've at least provided reasoning behind what I've said.

 

"Duh, it's King Felix" IS a legitimate reasoning behind many of the opinions here. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it not an argument.

gotcha.