The New Market Inefficiency?

[sneakypower]

...former top prospects whose teams have lost patience

 

here's a likely playoff team team you could have compiled by purely dumpster diving (requiring roughly minimal compensation):

 

C Saltalamacchia ('06 #18) 1.6 fWAR

1B Kotchman ('05 #6) 2.1

2B Sizemore ('10 #57 -BP) 0.8 (36 games)

SS Hardy ('05 #28) 2.0

3B Wood ('07 #8) 0.6 (59 games)

RF Francoeur ('05 #14) 1.9

CF Maybin ('09 #8) 3.3

LF M Cabrera 3.2

 

these 9 guys have been more productive than all but 10 teams in the league, as a whole

 

among the teams who these players collectively outrank, are the Pirates, Braves, Giants, Indians, Tigers, Phillies (and us of course)

 

who are other players in this mold worth looking into acquiring cheaply? Ian Stewart, Teagarden, Brignac, Barton, Hermida, Blanks, LaRoche, Gomez, Pie, Milledge, (Fowler?), (Rasmus?). all these names are (to varying degrees) much more intriguing to me than much of the slop occupying our AAA roster or serving bench roles on the MLB level

 

there's seemingly far fewer examples for pitching (only Humber, Andrew Miller, Morales immediately come to mind) and you'd have a near-impossible time discerning targets without scouting due to skills erosion and injuries

Edited July 26, 2011 by sneakypower

[apete6]

...former top prospects whose teams have lost patience

 

here's a likely playoff team team you could have compiled by purely dumpster diving (requiring roughly minimal compensation):

 

C Saltalamacchia ('06 #18) 1.6 fWAR

1B Kotchman ('05 #6) 2.1

2B Sizemore ('10 #57 -BP) 0.8 (36 games)

SS Hardy ('05 #28) 2.0

3B Wood ('07 #8) 0.6 (59 games)

RF Francoeur ('05 #14) 1.9

CF Maybin ('09 #8) 3.3

LF M Cabrera 3.2

 

these 9 guys have been more productive than all but 10 teams in the league, as a whole

 

among the teams who these players collectively outrank, are the Pirates, Braves, Giants, Indians, Tigers, Phillies (and us of course)

 

who are other players in this mold worth looking into acquiring cheaply? Ian Stewart, Teagarden, Brignac, Barton, Hermida, Blanks, LaRoche, Gomez, Pie, Milledge, (Fowler?), (Rasmus?). all these names are (to varying degrees) much more intriguing to me than much of the slop occupying our AAA roster or serving bench roles on the MLB level

 

there's seemingly far fewer examples for pitching (only Humber, Andrew Miller, Morales immediately come to mind) and you'd have a near-impossible time discerning targets without scouting due to skills erosion and injuries

 

Don't forget Carlos Quentin. I don't think the WSox gave up much for him and he's raking. This is one thing that Kenny Williams does extremely well (Quentin, Humber, Thornton). Obviously there are other examples as well (Josh Hamilton, Bobby Abreu--although I think he was an int'l signing, not a draftee).

 

We tried it and got a few years of terribleness from Thomas Diamond. Thanks Hendry!

[Sammy Sofa]

...former top prospects whose teams have lost patience

 

here's a likely playoff team team you could have compiled by purely dumpster diving (requiring roughly minimal compensation):

 

C Saltalamacchia ('06 #18) 1.6 fWAR

1B Kotchman ('05 #6) 2.1

2B Sizemore ('10 #57 -BP) 0.8 (36 games)

SS Hardy ('05 #28) 2.0

3B Wood ('07 #8) 0.6 (59 games)

RF Francoeur ('05 #14) 1.9

CF Maybin ('09 #8) 3.3

LF M Cabrera 3.2

 

these 9 guys have been more productive than all but 10 teams in the league, as a whole

 

among the teams who these players collectively outrank, are the Pirates, Braves, Giants, Indians, Tigers, Phillies (and us of course)

 

who are other players in this mold worth looking into acquiring cheaply? Ian Stewart, Teagarden, Brignac, Barton, Hermida, Blanks, LaRoche, Gomez, Pie, Milledge, (Fowler?), (Rasmus?). all these names are (to varying degrees) much more intriguing to me than much of the slop occupying our AAA roster or serving bench roles on the MLB level

 

there's seemingly far fewer examples for pitching (only Humber, Andrew Miller, Morales immediately come to mind) and you'd have a near-impossible time discerning targets without scouting due to skills erosion and injuries

 

Don't forget Carlos Quentin. I don't think the WSox gave up much for him and he's raking. This is one thing that Kenny Williams does extremely well (Quentin, Humber, Thornton). Obviously there are other examples as well (Josh Hamilton, Bobby Abreu--although I think he was an int'l signing, not a draftee).

 

We tried it and got a few years of terribleness from Thomas Diamond. Thanks Hendry!

 

Todd Walker, Mark DeRosa.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The White Sox sent the D Backs Chris Carter for Quentin. Carters whose still considered a top 100 prospect. He was later sent to Oakland as a big piece of the trade for Dan Haren. Obviously, CarGo was the biggest piece.

[sneakypower]

i'm not sure i understand your implication, Mojo; both of those names were in their 30s and had previous productive seasons in the bigs

 

Diamond, Jerome Williams, Max Ramirez and especially Barrett are better examples of when Hendry's tried employing that strategy; in all honesty i was a big fan of all four acquisitions, and despite the former three not panning out i'd love to see much more of it

[Sammy Sofa]

Older, yes, but weren't both effectively considered productive platoon/utility guys at best before they became full time starting 2B for the Cubs?

[Cubswin11]

Older, yes, but weren't both effectively considered productive platoon/utility guys at best before they became full time starting 2B for the Cubs?

Marlon Byrd also??? He only had one season of 500+ plate appearances before the Cubs signed him and was considered a 4th OF/platoon guy most of his career before signing here.

 

Also was Dempster ever considered a top prospect? I'd say signing him on the cheap and getting averagish years out of his as a closer and now well above average years as a starter was exploiting the market. What about Barrett? He gave us 3 years of WAR's of 1.6, 1.7, and 2.0 according to Baseballreference.

Edited July 25, 2011 by Cubswin11

[Guest]

Older, yes, but weren't both effectively considered productive platoon/utility guys at best before they became full time starting 2B for the Cubs?

 

But neither were really top prospects. Sneaky's point is that guys with pedigrees that have surpassed their results so far, and are young enough to still be in/entering their primes are the inefficiency.

[BeerHere]

I realize that scouts report to Hendry, but isn't this an implication of the scouting department more than it is of Hendry? I suppose it's possible the scouts all told him to sign these guys and he refused, but given his tendency to sign the Doug Davis's, Ramon Ortiz's and Thomas Diamond's of the world that would seem unlikely.

[Sammy Sofa]

Older, yes, but weren't both effectively considered productive platoon/utility guys at best before they became full time starting 2B for the Cubs?

 

But neither were really top prospects. Sneaky's point is that guys with pedigrees that have surpassed their results so far, and are young enough to still be in/entering their primes are the inefficiency.

 

Ah, gotcha.

[questionmarkgrace]

...former top prospects whose teams have lost patience

 

here's a likely playoff team team you could have compiled by purely dumpster diving (requiring roughly minimal compensation):

 

C Saltalamacchia ('06 #18) 1.6 fWAR

1B Kotchman ('05 #6) 2.1

2B Sizemore ('10 #57 -BP) 0.8 (36 games)

SS Hardy ('05 #28) 2.0

3B Wood ('07 #8) 0.6 (59 games)

RF Francoeur ('05 #14) 1.9

CF Maybin ('09 #8) 3.3

LF M Cabrera 3.2

 

these 9 guys have been more productive than all but 10 teams in the league, as a whole

 

among the teams who these players collectively outrank, are the Pirates, Braves, Giants, Indians, Tigers, Phillies (and us of course)

 

who are other players in this mold worth looking into acquiring cheaply? Ian Stewart, Teagarden, Brignac, Barton, Hermida, Blanks, LaRoche, Gomez, Pie, Milledge, (Fowler?), (Rasmus?). all these names are (to varying degrees) much more intriguing to me than much of the slop occupying our AAA roster or serving bench roles on the MLB level

 

there's seemingly far fewer examples for pitching (only Humber, Andrew Miller, Morales immediately come to mind) and you'd have a near-impossible time discerning targets without scouting due to skills erosion and injuries

 

I'm always for picking up another team's former top prospect. Sometimes the change of scenery, coaches, or pressure makes all the difference in the world.

[sneakypower]

and beyond that, those guys collectively have already in just over 1/2 season, provided roughly $65-70 million of surplus value to their teams and most are cost-controlled for at least a couple more years

 

the potential upside is simply too immense to ignore

[CubColtPacer]

and beyond that, those guys collectively have already in just over 1/2 season, provided roughly $65-70 million of surplus value to their teams and most are cost-controlled for at least a couple more years

 

the potential upside is simply too immense to ignore

 

The downside of course is the playing time that you have to give these guys. How many guys are like Pie right now who is giving -7.5 million worth of value all by himself? It's hard to do a proper analysis without looking at all the top prospects who failed with their original team and where they are now. It's definitely a high reward play, but it might be a pretty high risk one as well.

[Guest]

But most/all of those guys started adding value pretty much right away, it's not like you trade for Ian Stewart and let him flail away for 3 years like you would a prospect that has just reached the big leagues. I wouldn't create an opening for one of those guys, but considering how little is certain about next year's lineup, going after pretty much any of those guys would probably be a worthwhile risk, if only to increase flexibility.

[Little Slide Rooter]

But wait, didnt we get Josh Hamilton after the Rays lost patience with him?

[CubColtPacer]

But most/all of those guys started adding value pretty much right away, it's not like you trade for Ian Stewart and let him flail away for 3 years like you would a prospect that has just reached the big leagues. I wouldn't create an opening for one of those guys, but considering how little is certain about next year's lineup, going after pretty much any of those guys would probably be a worthwhile risk, if only to increase flexibility.

 

Agreed. For certain teams in certain situations, these guys make a fantastic play. I'm not sure I would call it a market inefficiency though rather than some teams are in better situations to take the big risk to get the potential huge reward. The worst that can happen is that the player acquired flames out spectacularly over the course of a season and is kicked out of town, but for a contending team a player doing that can ruin a season. For teams who obviously need more talent though, it's a different story.

[sneakypower]

Pie is the worst-case scenario, though; truthfully, he should have been sent to AAA awhile ago

 

if a team is reasonable about it, you demote him when it becomes apparent work is needed on his swing, or a position change warrants consideration; it stands to reason the potential payoff still far, far exceeds the minimal risk involved

[CubColtPacer]

Pie is the worst-case scenario, though; truthfully, he should have been sent to AAA awhile ago

 

if a team is reasonable about it, you demote him when it becomes apparent work is needed on his swing, or a position change warrants consideration; it stands to reason the potential payoff still far, far exceeds the minimal risk involved

 

I don't see how it's that easy to judge when to pull the plug with these guys. If they haven't been given enough time by their previous team, don't you have to give them enough at-bats to really give them a chance? Early results could just be the same adjustment period they were going through with their previous team.

[davearm2]

Pie is the worst-case scenario, though; truthfully, he should have been sent to AAA awhile ago

Pie may be the worst-case scenario, but the larger point is you suffer through a whole lot of Felix Pie's before you stumble into a gem.

 

Most flameouts stayed flamed-out.

[KingCubsFan]

Pie is the worst-case scenario, though; truthfully, he should have been sent to AAA awhile ago

Pie may be the worst-case scenario, but the larger point is you suffer through a whole lot of Felix Pie's before you stumble into a gem.

 

Most flameouts stayed flamed-out.

Some organizations have better success rates than others at this. Knowing Hendry, we'd probably fail at this, as we'd try and sign athletes like Pie over guys such as Carlos Quentin or Travis Snyder who, despite all indications that they should succeed in the majors, have been disappointing for whatever reason. And I feel like a broken record saying this, but the White Sox have been really good at this practice for quite a while.

[TruffleShuffle]

a lot of that list is 20/20 hindsight and picking guys who are having unusually good years. melky cabrera was never a big-time prospect, was thoroughly mediocre the last three years and now is having a good year. same with francoeur - basically he was a zero win player for 3 years; now he's a 2 win player and it looks like the royals had some kind of amazing foresight. jj hardy was just undervalued due to his low batting average and contact issues, plus a poor 2009, not because he was some busted prospect.

 

i agree that there are guys out there who are prospects that were cast off too quickly - maybin and sizemore strike me as two who fit that bill - but the problem is, how do you know who's going to be casey kotchman and who's going to be some AAAA guy who continues to fail every chance he gets?

 

also, i take issue with the cameron maybin requiring "minimal compensation", as the padres did trade a pair of reasonably solid and young relief pitchers for him.

[TruffleShuffle]

the other issue i have is that all of the names on sneaky's list (save salty at catcher) are playing for mid or small market teams. clubs like the royals, pirates and padres don't really have other options than giving busted prospects a chance, often when their own guys get hurt (pedro alvarez) or are ineffective (dan johnson). the royals were probably just hoping they'd get not-terrible production out of melky. this is the sort of thing that small market clubs can do. teams like the cubs, phillies, yankees, etc don't have the roster space to take on the AAAA all-stars and 2006 BA prospect handbook top 20, hoping that they can hack it.

 

plus there is a lot of trial and error/hope involved... other guys who have gotten ABs and still can't hit this year include sean burroughs, mark teahen, kouzmanoff and andy laroche. if you're a team like the cubs and you go into a season hoping that you've got 2011 melky cabrera instead of 2011 sean burroughs, your season is probably already in trouble.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

...former top prospects whose teams have lost patience

 

here's a likely playoff team team you could have compiled by purely dumpster diving (requiring roughly minimal compensation):

 

C Saltalamacchia ('06 #18) 1.6 fWAR

1B Kotchman ('05 #6) 2.1

2B Sizemore ('10 #57 -BP) 0.8 (36 games)

SS Hardy ('05 #28) 2.0

3B Wood ('07 #8) 0.6 (59 games)

RF Francoeur ('05 #14) 1.9

CF Maybin ('09 #8) 3.3

LF M Cabrera 3.2

 

these 9 guys have been more productive than all but 10 teams in the league, as a whole

 

among the teams who these players collectively outrank, are the Pirates, Braves, Giants, Indians, Tigers, Phillies (and us of course)

 

who are other players in this mold worth looking into acquiring cheaply? Ian Stewart, Teagarden, Brignac, Barton, Hermida, Blanks, LaRoche, Gomez, Pie, Milledge, (Fowler?), (Rasmus?). all these names are (to varying degrees) much more intriguing to me than much of the slop occupying our AAA roster or serving bench roles on the MLB level

 

there's seemingly far fewer examples for pitching (only Humber, Andrew Miller, Morales immediately come to mind) and you'd have a near-impossible time discerning targets without scouting due to skills erosion and injuries

 

You know...I've noticed this but never, ever thought of putting it that way.

 

Throw Blake DeWitt on that list...and Jeff Baker was one before him. It does seem like former first round picks and other highly thought of amateurs tend to stick around as useful parts after they've been designated as busts for not becoming the stud-like stars they were formerly destined to be.

 

I do think there are rules though...Just don't ask me what they are right now. I think athleticism and position is a factor...you'll probably see that alot of these guys were up the middle prospects as prospects...Kelly Johnson and Betemit are other guys who come to mind as former top prospects who took a long time to find a niche...

[Vanilla Ice]

This would be an interesting study, if somebody were to do it.

[sneakypower]

teams like the cubs, phillies, yankees, etc don't have the roster space to take on the AAAA all-stars and 2006 BA prospect handbook top 20, hoping that they can hack it.

we use it up on no-upside stiffs like Koyie Hill, Montanez, Reed Johnson instead, and the Red Sox found spots for Saltalamacchia, Andrew Miller, Rocco Baldelli, Rich Hill, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Jeremy Hermida on their roster

 

but what the [expletive] do they know?