Players Eligible for December's Rule 5 Draft

[Little Slide Rooter]

but if we're talking about the 3rd catcher on the depth chart, and we only have so many available spots on the 40 man, Clevenger is the guy I'd rather risk losing between him, Marwin, and Jackson. Soto and Castillo would be the top to Cs, and if absolutley needed, how much worse can Chris Robinson be than Koyie Hill? Remember, with a backup C, he'd be likely to play every 5th or 6th game and rarely used as a PH anyway.

 

And I'd feel a lot better if you were to change "if" Koyie Hill is let go to "when" Koyie Hill is let go. If the organization loves the guy so much, offer him a minor league coaching gig assuming he can't latch on with another team.

[toonsterwu]

Ha, I'm hoping that Koyie is moving on as well, just wouldn't rule anything out.

 

I don't know if you protect a guy like Marwin Gonzalez. I think you've got to make some tough decisions, and I'm not sure Marwin is the type of guy that gets plucked up. There's a chance, as he's an up the middle player, but he doesn't have a top glove at short, and his bat isn't that great yet.

 

To be fair, I'm not sure Clevenger is the type of guy that would get picked in Rule 5 either. Most teams have someone of similar ilk to Clevenger somewhere. I'm "protecting" him to get that 3rd catcher on the 40 that I like (as compared to using the other options).

 

Jay's an interesting case. I want to be a big fan, as I was a huge fan of his when he was in the lower levels. But ... not many guys can get by just on a decent fastball with some velo. If he found his slider ...

 

I do think Jay's the type of guy that could get plucked (some team may pick him to stick in middle relief early on, send him back to the minors in 2013), but unless the Cubs think he can make it as a starter, I simply think there's too many righty pen arms that should be viewed as being on a similar, if not better, level.

 

I'd love to protect all of them if I could. I do wonder if Marwin can break out a bit more next year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I agree about Marwin. To be honest, due to his age, and that he seems to have had a breakout offensive season I think someone would take him and unless he was compeltely awful keep him around as a backup SS, but due to our middle infield depth, it wouldn't be a massive loss unless he turned into Roberto Alomar, which isn't likely.

 

Jay on the other hand, I know he hasn't been great the past 2 years, but he has shown flashes and he's only 23, and considering our lack of starting pitching depth, he's a guy I'd really like to see protected rather than cycle through another round of retreads, especially with Z likely gone, Demp after this year, and Randy Wells lack of consistancy.

[toonsterwu]

Not to drag this too far off-topic, but I'd be surprised if Demp is gone after 2012. It feels like a situation where things could get worked out.

 

I don't think Randy Wells should be expected to be more than an end of the rotation guy this year, but to be fair to him, I wonder how much the injury hampered his first few starts back. He's really settled down the last month and change, looking like the solid starter he was the last 2 years.

 

The depth at AAA should be a bit better next year, with more intriguing arms for stopgap callups than the retreads this year. Coleman/Struck/Rusin all are close. I think Cabrera should be moved to the pen, but he could be given another lifeline as a starter. Jay would be nice to keep around there, and I do like him, but I don't think it's as big a deal as it would've been if the situation was akin to this year. AA should be fine (from an intrigue perspective) next year as well, at least, as of now, on paper. McNutt/Rhee/Antigua, and there's a chance Whitenack could be there late in the season.

[TruffleShuffle]

If beliveau isn't protected he'll be gone. There's no way a lefty reliever who gets everyone out in the high minors doesn't get selected.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If beliveau isn't protected he'll be gone. There's no way a lefty reliever who gets everyone out in the high minors doesn't get selected.

 

Agreed. If it came down to it, I'd much rather part with Maine over Beliveau or Gaub. However, my fear is that they won't bother rostering Beliveau because we already have Marshall, Russell, Gaub, and Maine.

Edited September 1, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[jumbo]

OK, I'll try this out

 

There are 7 FA Spots that will open up after the season:

Pena, Grabow, Wood (could be back), Lopez, Ortiz, Johnson, Montanez

 

There are 3 players with options, 1 40-man spot will open up:

Ramirez - Cubs will pick up his option, Ramirez will opt out.

Samardzija - Cubs will decline his option which still keeps him under club control due to service time

Dempster - player option. Possible for him to opt out given poor SP market this offseason. Only loyalty would keep him here.

 

There are 5 player with MLB contracts for 2012, 1 40-man spot will open up eventually:

Soriano, Zambrano (likely to be released, still counts on the 40 man for the time being), Byrd, Marmol, Marshall,

 

There are 5 players arbitration eligible for 2012, 1-2 spots could open up:

Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill (should be non tendered by new GM), Wells, DeWitt (could be non tendered by new GM)

 

There are 19 autorenewal players for 2012, 3+ spots should open up:

Keep: Castro, Colvin, Cashner, Russell, Barney, Campana, Carpenter, Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, LeMahieu

Cut: Berg, Caridad, Schlitter

Could go either way: Mateo, Cabrera, Coleman, Maine, Smit

 

So as a rough figure, we should have 12 spots available on the 40 man. We would need to have slots available for FA signings, so maybe the Rule 5 draft will tell us something based on how many spots are left open. I'm not sure of the timing/sequence of the options versus rule 5 and FA.

[Guest]

I'm bumping this since there's discussion going on in today's game thread.

Matt Szczur, OF

Josh Vitters, 3B-1B

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

Junior Lake, INF

--

Jeffry Antigua, LHP

Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF

Jeff Beliveau, LHP

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

--

Kyler Burke, LHP (ex-OF)

Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF

Jay Jackson, RHP

Blake Parker, RHP

Ryan Searle, RHP

Larry Suarez, RHP

Marcus Hatley, RHP

To me, all those guys have arguments for being rostered this winter. I've split it into three groups. I think the first four absolutely have to be protected. The only controversial choice there would be Lake, but at just 21 with his tools, he'd be taken by someone and could still turn into someone you'd REALLY regret losing.

 

I think the next group of players are guys who are likely to be taken if not protected. While I'd be pretty pissed if we lost any of these guys, none of them have such star potential that it would be a crippling loss, though.

 

The final group is a set of guys who all likely at least get some coffee at some point in their careers. I could even see a decent MLB career for any of them. But I think they're either raw enough or low-ceiling enough or struggling enough that they either won't be taken or we won't miss them that much if they are.

[toonsterwu]

Pretty much what I had the last time we discussed this, with the one difference being Lake not being in my top two groups I would rather not roster Lake, but I think there's a high chance that the Cubs will.

 

I am fascinated with Kyler but I think he's too far away to take the plunge with right now. Would it stun me if someone took a shot on him? Not really, but it would be mildly surprising.

 

The one key sleeper, I think, is Marcus Hatley. Of course, IIRC, there were heavy rumors that the Cubs were high on Luke Sommer last year and were pondering him as a possible protect, and now he's gone. That said, the Cubs do seem high on Hatley, and unlike Sommer, Hatley does have some late inning potential. I've got a hard time seeing 8, let alone 9, get protected, though, but he's the one sleeper I'd watch.

 

If there's a guy from the top two tiers that might not get rostered, the favorite would be Clevenger. I like him and prefer seeing him protected, but the club could opt for a more polished defensive catcher behind Soto.

 

As with all things Cubs system related these days, the one big issue is that there's going to be a new regime, so a lot could change. Granted, if Fleita/Wilken are in place, maybe not.

[Guest]

Pretty much what I had the last time we discussed this, with the one difference being Lake not being in my top two groups I would rather not roster Lake, but I think there's a high chance that the Cubs will.

 

I am fascinated with Kyler but I think he's too far away to take the plunge with right now. Would it stun me if someone took a shot on him? Not really, but it would be mildly surprising.

 

The one key sleeper, I think, is Marcus Hatley. Of course, IIRC, there were heavy rumors that the Cubs were high on Luke Sommer last year and were pondering him as a possible protect, and now he's gone. That said, the Cubs do seem high on Hatley, and unlike Sommer, Hatley does have some late inning potential. I've got a hard time seeing 8, let alone 9, get protected, though, but he's the one sleeper I'd watch.

 

If there's a guy from the top two tiers that might not get rostered, the favorite would be Clevenger. I like him and prefer seeing him protected, but the club could opt for a more polished defensive catcher behind Soto.

 

As with all things Cubs system related these days, the one big issue is that there's going to be a new regime, so a lot could change. Granted, if Fleita/Wilken are in place, maybe not.

I forget, what were Hatley's injury issues?

 

I'll be pissed if we continue to run Hill out there and don't roster Clevenger. But I can understand the decision there if it goes that way. He's definitely the least of the eight.

 

I know I'm much more of a Lake fan than you, but I don't see how you could leave him off the list. He still might have the best package of tools in the system. With how his running game has evolved this year, I don't think it's much of a possibility that he would go unselected. And he's a guy we could really regret losing down the road.

[toonsterwu]

Well, there's two things I'm looking at

 

a) What is the likelihood said player picked will stick in the bigs all year? I have high doubts that Junior Lake is capable of sticking in the bigs all year in 2012, at least, long enough so that the team can stash him away at IR (I forget the rules off the top right now). Defensively, what position does he play on a regular basis? Does he offer enough offensively?

 

b) What's his value, and what's his value to the organization? I don't deny his talent, but there has to be big questions on how his bat translates, and defensively, he's still likely destined to go to a position (2nd or 3rd, if he develops) that demands more offense.

 

I'm just not sure, in a year where there are a lot of guys that deserve to be in consideration to be protected, that Lake is absolutely necessary. If I could protect him, sure, but protecting 8-9 guys in one year is a high number, and I'd rather protect Antigua, Flaherty, Beliveau, guys I'm either more intrigued with or believe there's a higher chance they will contribute in the bigs. But that's me, and like I said, in all honesty, I'm expecting them to protect him and I'd also understand the rationale behind it.

 

Hatley had TJ, I want to say, in late 09?

 

I'm not suggesting Koyie Hill btw. I'm simply suggesting the team might opt for a veteran catcher that is better than Soto defensively. I'd rather let Castillo/Clevenger battle it out, though, with the other in AAA.

[toonsterwu]

So, started a discussion on Rule 5 on TCR with AzPhil. A lot of folks chimed in, but here's his possible roadmap:

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2011/09/05/2011-iowa-cubs-futurama#new

 

TOONSTER: I think the roster in the coming days and weeks will go something like this:

 

1. Carlos Zambrano will be reinstateed from the Disqualified List on Monday 9/12 (and will be told to stay home). 40-man roster will then be full.

 

2. C-1B Steve Clevenger will be added to the 40-man roster & called up as soon as Tennessee is done. Marcos Mateo will then be transfered to the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster for Clevenger.

 

3. After the season, Brian Schlitter and Marcos Mateo will be reinstated from the 60-day DL, and then Mateo, Schlitter, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Kyle Smit, and Lou Montanez will be outrighted (if not claimed off waivers).

 

Four slots are now open.

 

BTW, Berg, Mateo, and Montanez can be minor league FA post-2011 if outrighted, while Caridad, Schlitter, and Smit cannot.

 

4. Robert Coello will be added to the 40-man roster prior to the end of the World Series (because he can be a minor league FA if he is not added to the 40-man roster by the 4th day following the conclusion of the WS).

 

Three slots are now open.

 

5. Cubs will exercise 2012 club option on Aramis Ramirez by the deadline for making that move (whenever that is). Roster stays the same.

 

6. John Grabow, Reed Johnson, Rodrigo Lopez, Ramon Ortiz, Carlos Pena, and Kerry Wood, and possibly Aramis Ramirez and/or Ryan Dempster (but only if they opt out) become MLB Article XX-B free-agents after the conclusion of the World Series.

 

Even if Ramirez and Dempster exercise their 2012 contract options and return, at least six more slots will become available (Grabow, Johnson, Lopez, Ortiz, Pena, and Wood), added to the three already open.

 

That makes at least nine slots open (or ten or even 11 if Ramirez and/or Dempster decline their player options).

 

6. Jeffry Antigua, Jeff Beliveau, Jay Jackson, Dae-Eun Rhee, Ryan Flaherty, Marwin Gonzalez, Jeff Vitters, and Matt Szczur will be added to the 40-man roster by the 11/20 deadline. (BTW, Szczur will get four minor league options).

 

At least one slot will still be open (or two or even three slots if Ramirez and/or Dempster opt out).

 

7. Carlos Pena and Kerry Wood (and Ramirez and Dempster if they opt out) will be offered salary arbitration on 11/23. They would have until 11/30 to accept or decline. If Pena and Wood both accept salary arbitration and if both Ramireza and Dempster opt to return to Cubs in 2012.

 

8. Koyie Hill will be non-tendered on 12/2. Roster is full (but only if both Wood and Pena accept salary arbitration and both Ramirez and Dempster opt to return), or there could be as many as four slots open if Pena, Wood, Ramirez and Dempster are gone.

 

To open up one or two roster slots for signing free-agents, Jeff Baker and/or Blake DeWitt might also be non-tendered on 12/2 (both are eligible for salary arbitration).

 

Also, it is possible that Carlos Zambrano could get released during the off-season (perhaps sooner rather than later). Or he might be back in 2012. Probably depends on the desires of the new GM.

 

The GM will also hire a new manager and coaching staff (although Rudy Jaramillo will be back as hitting coach because of his contract).

 

And finally, Brett Jackson will almost certainly get an NRI to ST and be given a genuine chance to win the starting CF (and lead-off hitter) job.

 

It certainly seem possible, but I still have a hard time seeing so many guys get added to the 40 by a new regime. And I do agree with adding Coello, who has been lights out since going to the pen. Heck, I think a case could be made for adding Parker, who's been good in the last few weeks, but the numbers game may make it hard (and if Parker is available, I'll be surprised if he isn't picked in Rule 5 - seems like the perfect Rule 5 guy to take for another team, a possible guy to fill a middle relief role without spending FA money).

[TruffleShuffle]

jeez i hadn't noticed that about coello at all, i guess because his overall numbers were so mediocre. his second half numbers were terrific.

 

the downside with him is that he'll turn 27 this offseason so if he's going to be a big-league pitcher, he'd better make it very soon (like next year) or it's probably just not gonna happen.

[Little Slide Rooter]

jeez i hadn't noticed that about coello at all, i guess because his overall numbers were so mediocre. his second half numbers were terrific.

 

the downside with him is that he'll turn 27 this offseason so if he's going to be a big-league pitcher, he'd better make it very soon (like next year) or it's probably just not gonna happen.

 

The thing is, of the bunch, there are several guys who could be decent middle relievers in the next few years, but you can't protect them all. Beliveau seems to have by far the highest ceiling of the lot, but after him, there are a bunch of guys who could go either way.

[Named After Maddux]

The thing I like best about Beliveau is his combination of strikeouts with control. He had a 5.3 K/BB ratio in about 60 innings in Tennessee this year and greater than a 3 K/BB at every level since the beginning of 2010. Couple that with the fact that he's had a >10 K/9 at every level in the minors, he still is 24, and he has a smattering of closing experience, I would be a very big proponent on making him a key person to add to the 40 man.

[Guest]

Any changes in thoughts about rostering Lake after his assignment to the AFL and his performance there?

[davell]

Considering Theo mentioned him as a guy he could see making the team out of spring training, I'd say there's a fair shot he gets added. \:D/

[Guest]

Considering Theo mentioned him as a guy he could see making the team out of spring training, I'd say there's a fair shot he gets added. \:D/

holy [expletive], how did I miss that? Do you have a link?

[davell]

No, but I think it was in the conference call to season ticket holders. The only 3 players he mentioned were Brett, Lake, and Szczur. For what it's worth.

[Guest]

It was McLeod, and it seemed like he wasn't really answering the question asked(who could make the MLB team next year). There's a quote of it in the thread about the Season Ticket Call.

[davell]

Crud, thought it was Theo, my bad. Still part of the Braintrust though and since he's made a good impression, I figure he's still a lock to make it.