2012 Draft Discussion

[davell]

I kind of like O'Brien but don't think he'll stick at C. Not really a fan of Tucker at all. But I like the idea of taking one of them or some other highly thought of senior, because we should be able to underslot them and use it towards a high upside guy somewhere else early. He'll, I'd love to take 3 or 4 seniors inside the top 10 rounds.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I kind of like O'Brien but don't think he'll stick at C. Not really a fan of Tucker at all. But I like the idea of taking one of them or some other highly thought of senior, because we should be able to underslot them and use it towards a high upside guy somewhere else early. He'll, I'd love to take 3 or 4 seniors inside the top 10 rounds.

 

Mostly interested in O'Brien for catching depth, particularly since his bat is better than Gibbs. Wasn't aware of his glove issues, but now that you mention it when I saw him his glove didn't stand out.

 

Not too big on Tucker either, BUT same thinking with the senior sign. Plus, he's a better senior draftee than most for sure IMO...His bat is interesting-ish.

 

I guess as we get closer I'll learn more about upside guys who I want to take past (and well past) round one.

[Guest]

I kind of like O'Brien but don't think he'll stick at C. Not really a fan of Tucker at all. But I like the idea of taking one of them or some other highly thought of senior, because we should be able to underslot them and use it towards a high upside guy somewhere else early. He'll, I'd love to take 3 or 4 seniors inside the top 10 rounds.

 

Mostly interested in O'Brien for catching depth, particularly since his bat is better than Gibbs. Wasn't aware of his glove issues, but now that you mention it when I saw him his glove didn't stand out.

 

Not too big on Tucker either, BUT same thinking with the senior sign. Plus, he's a better senior draftee than most for sure IMO...His bat is interesting-ish.

 

I guess as we get closer I'll learn more about upside guys who I want to take past (and well past) round one.

 

Florida State OF Jack Ramsey is probably the best senior in this draft.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Nice thanks...better athlete than Tucker.

 

I'm just going to be pumping out questions and bs in this thread all Spring...Thoughts on Brett Mooneyham? There's an arm I'd like at 43...

[Guest]

Nice thanks...better athlete than Tucker.

 

I'm just going to be pumping out questions and bs in this thread all Spring...Thoughts on Brett Mooneyham? There's an arm I'd like at 43...

 

I like him a bit. I think he's got #3 starter upside. He wasn't in BA's most recent Top 60 but I think he'd be a nice pick at 43.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Nice thanks...better athlete than Tucker.

 

I'm just going to be pumping out questions and bs in this thread all Spring...Thoughts on Brett Mooneyham? There's an arm I'd like at 43...

 

I like him a bit. I think he's got #3 starter upside. He wasn't in BA's most recent Top 60 but I think he'd be a nice pick at 43.

 

Little crazy by BA...lefty who hits 95 with a breaking ball AND he's no dumby? That's at least a top 50 talent....I know Stanford has a stigma (BA actually has an article on this but it was about their bats IIRC), but sounds like a good time to buy low then because there's some strog talent on that roster.

[iowahawkeyes89]

My top 5 for in order for Cubs 1st rounder (realistic options)

 

1. Gausman (Most upside of the college arms in my opinion)

2. Fried (Projectable frame with already 90-92 FB, plus curve, average change,)

3. Zunino (Probably the safest pick in the draft, not sure if he'll stay behind the plate)

4. Giolito (Despite the injury, still would be hard to pass up)

5. Correa (I actually like him more than Buxton)

[Guest]

Taylor Dugas is another potential senior pick (more around round 5-10). Wilken clearly likes him since he drafted him last year.

[iowahawkeyes89]

Nolan Fontana (Florida) definitely resembles a Theo Epstein type of prospect. High OBP, good fielder, solid hitting skills.

[davell]

Fontana won't make it to us in the supplemental. I'll be shocked if we don't take a really high upside guy at 6.

[Guest]

@BAHighSchool Colleague in Miami tells me Theo Epstein saw OF Albert Almora play recently. Doing his due diligence, but interesting nonetheless. #mlbdraft

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

@BAHighSchool Colleague in Miami tells me Theo Epstein saw OF Albert Almora play recently. Doing his due diligence, but interesting nonetheless. #mlbdraft

 

I was just reading about Almora...tools wise he's my kind of very young CF prospect (always on the lookout for the next Carlos Beltran - switch hitting not being part of the criteria)....sounds alot like Reymond Fuentes (Red Sox first round pick traded for Gonzalez) actually but with just a touch more present power (maybe).

 

Became one of my favorite HS players in this draft very quickly, but worth the 6th? Eh. Doubt he makes it to 43 but I'd pounce...

[davell]

I've seen reports that Almora definitely has a shot at going inside the top 10.

[Guest]

Keith Law has Almora as the 8th best prospect in the draft. BA has him 12th. Certainly not outlandish to see him go #6.

 

And he's a far superior prospect to Fuentes when he was drafted.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Keith Law has Almora as the 8th best prospect in the draft. BA has him 12th. Certainly not outlandish to see him go #6.

And he's a far superior prospect to Fuentes when he was drafted.

 

No doubt about it just referencing Fuentes for body type and "that type of athlete."

 

Didn't know he was that highly ranked...though I did hear he was at worst the 3rd best HS position player.

[Guest]

Justin (Cleveland, Ohio) How far does Smoral fall with his foot injury?

 

Klaw (1:12 PM) I don't think he falls far at all. Teams saw him throw really well before the injury, as well as last summer/fall. I'm sure some clubs will feel like they haven't had enough looks, but it only takes one team to roll the dice on a power LHP who was almost certainly a top ten pick prior to the injury - maybe he goes 11-15, but that's it.

 

AJ (Los Angeles) What surprises, if any, do u expect in this years MLB draft with the new CBA in place?

 

Klaw (1:23 PM) I think the late first/sandwich rounds will include some overdrafts of college players or JC guys who'll sign for less than slot, allowing teams to shift money to HS guys later on. Junior college arms like Cory Jones and Dylan Baker are rising on boards in part because of this. (Also, they both sit low to mid 90s as starters.)

 

Cole (Alameda) Where do you see Kenny Diekroeger going? Day 2? Is it fair to label him a project player with very high upside?

 

Klaw (1:24 PM) Sandwich round - great guy to take with an extra pick, then immediately undo everything Stanford did to wreck his swing. Send him out to short-season ball as a shortstop. First-round upside, available at a slight discount because Stanford has screwed him up.

 

Joel (Bham) Could you give your best guess on who the 1-5 draft picks will be based on the teams and what you have heard rumored? Not who they SHOULD pick, but who you thing they WILL pick. Thanks!

 

Klaw (1:49 PM) Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman. But Houston is the big pivot here and Luhnow has just started to go out and see the candidates. Buxton could go anywhere from 1-6. Correa could go 1. Zimmer has been 90-92 the last two weeks and if the Twins don't take him at 2, he could fall to 6 or lower. It's really up in the air - as it is every year at this time.

 

David (Houston) Is Upton the MLB player Buxton compares to most?

 

Klaw (1:56 PM) I've heard everything from the Uptons to Josh Hamilton to Griffey Jr. to Willie Mays. If you're grading out future tools, you're putting mostly 7s and 8s (70s and 80s) on your card. You have to be willing to stomach the performance risk, though: We don't really know how he'll hit.

 

Ed (San Diego) How likely is it that Correa can stay at SS? He sound san awful lot like Machado or Arod coming out with less power.

Klaw (1:58 PM) Less likely than Machado. Consensus has Correa ending up at 3b.

 

Connor (Georgia) Any update on Victor Roache or Giolito's injury? How much do these injury affect their stock? Still first rounders?

 

Klaw (2:14 PM) Roache is out for the spring, and was never a first-round talent. (Perhaps someone would have taken him there, but I doubt that.) Giolito could come back in May, which I think he needs to do if he wants to go in the top ten.

[davell]

Those 5 being off the board and serious questions about Giolito is our worst case scenario. At that point, I think it'd come down to Fried or Correa for me. And Fried only because I really, really want pitching at 6, even knowing we need to go BPA.

[Guest]

I still want Buxton.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I still want Buxton.

 

Yeah there's actually a ton of video on him. I take back the whole athletic part of what I said. Whoa that was off, by alot.

 

The big question is there any way to mess this pick up? I would be fine with them drafting any of Appel, Buxton, Gausman, Zunino, Correa, Giollito, Almora, Wacha (who is not Dan Haren), and Fried. In other words, still prefer the arm.

[Guest]

BA:

 

Mark Appel (6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) "was laboring bad," according to a scout who was on hand, but he kept the Devils in check and improved to 5-1.

 

Gausman was great against #3 Kentucky and topped out at 100 mph. Wacha was hittable (9 H in 5.2 with only 3 Ks but he gave up only 2 runs) against a very hot Baylor team. Zimmer was dominant and the velocity bounced back to 94-97. Stroman struck out 9 in 7 against Virginia.

[davell]

With the deadline to sign moving up a month, it's going to be really interesting seeing how teams handle the pitchers.

[Guest]

Ryne Stanek was a week away from being eligible for the 2012 draft as a draft eligible sophomore and I have no doubt he would be the top college pitcher this year if he were eligible. Between Stanek and Whitson, that's a nice 1-2 college pitcher combo.

 

Plus Dylan Covey was a 1st rounder out of HS and is eligible again in '13.

 

I have to stop forgetting about Stanek because damn he is impressive (tall, loose, athletic, wipeout stuff, has the kind of fastball you look for and I think it translates to starting as a pro)...Covey I liked coming out of HS, but not sure he's a top tier pick right now.

 

Regarding the bats, I like Austin Wilson and think he's improved his pitch recognition but I think Kris Bryant has to be considered the top college bat at this moment for '13.

 

Regardless, you don't make draft decisions this year based on what next year's draft looks like.

 

Agreed. My simple hope for this upcoming draft is that the first round pick is based on ceiling. Don't care college or prep, don't care positional or pitcher. It seems like a lot of Cubs fans are pushing for a fast-moving arm, and while that'd be nice, ceiling is more significant to me, as we have some mid-rotation ceiling arms in the upper levels.

 

With the new rules, I can understand it if they want to go signability with the comp picks or some of the early round picks, although I'm not sure how I'd feel until we see who the guys in play are (tbh, I see someone posted something on Sickels about what they think teams will do in the upcoming draft, and my general hunch is that ... all the teams will be sort of feeling it out this year, as they get a gauge on what they can do. Could lead to some craziness where teams load up early and punt the draft, or could lead to some ultra-conservativeness as well, where teams perhaps go signability early. Hard to know).

 

And with that, I'll go check on what's being said in the amateur forum.

 

Figure I should probably respond to this post in here (this post was taken from the 4/22 Minor League thread).

 

I saw that too. I think it's safe to see teams going conservative with a few picks but you can't really save too much for money from this tactic to go well overslot.

 

It will be interesting to see how many signability guys will end up in college who likely wouldn't have in years past.

[davell]

We have 8 mill as our allotment, so we have 400K to spend over that, without getting penalized, other than monetarily. I feel confident that we'll take that penalty too. It'll be 300K. This first draft will be a crapshoot for sure though. Probably a lot of improvising, while seeing what teams behind us are doing. My guess is we will take a couple of easy sign type seniors, to give us more money to play around with. The bottom line though, is even if we do these things, it's probably only going to net us one more player.

[toonsterwu]

This is a total side note, but much as I am biased for UVA, and much as I like his ceiling, I'd be very wary of drafting Branden Kline in the sandwich round (if he makes it there). As a former Theo pick, certainly possible they go after him, and he fits the mold of an athletic pitcher with some projection. The ceiling's great - if you buy that he might add a tick or two (certainly plausible), he certainly has showcased a plus breaking ball and shows a lot of potential with the changeup. That said, the fastball flattens out too much at times, the breaking ball is inconsistent and he seems to lose his feel for it at times, and the change is still in development. The command erodes when he loses the breaking ball.

 

In the 2nd/3rd round, would jump on him, but as a sandwich pick, debatable. Talent is great, though.

[toonsterwu]

Odd, someone from Maryland asked a question about Branden Kline with basically similar verbiage to how I phrased it.

 

Anyhow,

 

Marco (Maryland): How do MLB scouts view Branden Kline? Is he viewed as a starter, or do they prefer him in the pen? The ceiling seems awfully high if a lot of things go right, as the change seems to show well, but the fastball also seems to flatten out and the breaking ball comes and goes. Sandwich round, earlier, later? Thanks.

 

Aaron Fitt: My colleague Conor Glassey saw Kline last week at Duke and came away with the feeling that Kline would fit better as a reliever in pro ball -- just stick him in the pen and let him attack with his fastball and slider. Conor made the same observations you did about the fastball flattening out at times and the slider coming and going, but he does like Kline's body, athleticism and arm speed. Call him a second rounder, with a chance for sandwich.

 

If he's there in the 2nd, it's probably a worthy gamble, obviously, depending on the board.