Aramis will not waive no trade clause

[Guest]

I have no hard feelings about a player who took less than market value to play here not wanting to be traded.

 

I will be annoyed when we don't offer arbitration, though. It'll be the right decision if Aramis continues his current pace and finishes with less than 10 hr. But I'll be annoyed that once again we lose out on extra draft picks.

 

What's the best case scenario if he accepts arbitration? They can only offer as little as 80% of his 2011 salary? Can they cut him and only pay portion of reward? With no other apparent 3B options, is there any chance it's worth it?

Best case scenario is that he plays like mid-2000's Aramis.

 

Once you offer arbitration and they accept, there's not really any realistic way of getting out of the agreement. There's a clause in there that allowed SD to get out of paying Walker 80% of his deal, but I can't remember what kicks in the team's ability to do that.

 

There's definitely a chance that Aramis could be worth $15M next year when compared to other 3B's. I'm not sure what is the cause behind his complete lack of power this season, but if there's a nagging injury or something like that, he could be fully healthy next year and at least perform as he did in the second half last season.

[jersey cubs fan]

I have no hard feelings about a player who took less than market value to play here not wanting to be traded.

 

I will be annoyed when we don't offer arbitration, though. It'll be the right decision if Aramis continues his current pace and finishes with less than 10 hr. But I'll be annoyed that once again we lose out on extra draft picks.

 

What's the best case scenario if he accepts arbitration? They can only offer as little as 80% of his 2011 salary? Can they cut him and only pay portion of reward? With no other apparent 3B options, is there any chance it's worth it?

Best case scenario is that he plays like mid-2000's Aramis.

 

I mean realistic best case scenario.

 

And more on the financial outcome. I guess there's always hope for one last hurrah with him. He was good enough for long enough to make it possible. And there's always the problem of no other options.

[soapy]

Yeah I think the lack of other options will play into this decision. They may think they have some chance at making a run next year by adding Pujols and maybe squeezing one more healthy year out of Ramirez (and Soriano), if there is some sort of injury contributing to his power outage this year. It would take everything going their way ala 2008 though (particularly health in the rotation and a big year from Soto).

[Guest]

It's also not certain what this year will end up looking like for Aramis. Easy to say this today after the home run, but he could easily still end up with 20+ hr. If that's the case, arbitration is an easy choice.

[davearm2]

You can't offer Ramirez arbitration unless you're OK with paying him like $12M next year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Can you do arbitration after declining an option?

[jersey cubs fan]

It's also not certain what this year will end up looking like for Aramis. Easy to say this today after the home run, but he could easily still end up with 20+ hr. If that's the case, arbitration is an easy choice.

 

But that means paying the buyout plus risking the arbitration money.

[Guest]

It's also not certain what this year will end up looking like for Aramis. Easy to say this today after the home run, but he could easily still end up with 20+ hr. If that's the case, arbitration is an easy choice.

 

But that means paying the buyout plus risking the arbitration money.

You wouldn't take that risk if he ends up with 20+ hr this year? You know he'll have a decent BA, walk enough that the OBP is at least passable. If he ends up with 20+HR, he may be the third best position player on the market this coming offseason.

 

Not to mention that he'd be a good bet to earn his $15M next year.

 

Oh...the buyout doesn't factor into the calculation at all. That's going to be there one way or another. Unless you're suggesting it may be better to pick up the option if he finishes the year strongly.

[Guest]

Can you do arbitration after declining an option?

yes

[jersey cubs fan]

It's also not certain what this year will end up looking like for Aramis. Easy to say this today after the home run, but he could easily still end up with 20+ hr. If that's the case, arbitration is an easy choice.

 

But that means paying the buyout plus risking the arbitration money.

You wouldn't take that risk if he ends up with 20+ hr this year? You know he'll have a decent BA, walk enough that the OBP is at least passable. If he ends up with 20+HR, he may be the third best position player on the market this coming offseason.

 

Not to mention that he'd be a good bet to earn his $15M next year.

 

Oh...the buyout doesn't factor into the calculation at all. That's going to be there one way or another. Unless you're suggesting it may be better to pick up the option if he finishes the year strongly.

 

That is the suggestion. If you pay the buyout then offer arbitration and you somehow take 20% off this year's salary, you are paying $13.7m, so profit! But if you pay the $2m and just pay him the same salary as this year, it's a loss. Maybe you absorb that loss in hopes of getting those picks.

 

Either way, if he has any sort of recovery, you don't cut him and let walk without arbitration.

[Guest]

That is the suggestion. If you pay the buyout then offer arbitration and you somehow take 20% off this year's salary, you are paying $13.7m, so profit! But if you pay the $2m and just pay him the same salary as this year, it's a loss. Maybe you absorb that loss in hopes of getting those picks.

 

Either way, if he has any sort of recovery, you don't cut him and let walk without arbitration.

Gotcha. I can get behind that logic. It just depends on how confident you'd be on his health and performance heading into 2012 and where you think the team is going to be. They'll have to make that decision before knowing whether they have a real shot at Pujols/Fielder, though.

[kujay]

*waits for Rosenbloom column where he makes a remark like 'Of course he wants to stay here. Why would he want to play somewhere else where he can get paid to look disinterested and halfass it with no accountability?"*

 

Kujay basically said that already

 

Was I wrong?

 

And that's not quite what I said. Unless he's got a compelling personal reason to stay in Chicago, I just don't know why a guy like him would want to play out the string on this crappy team.

[Sammy Sofa]

*waits for Rosenbloom column where he makes a remark like 'Of course he wants to stay here. Why would he want to play somewhere else where he can get paid to look disinterested and halfass it with no accountability?"*

 

Kujay basically said that already

 

Was I wrong?

 

And that's not quite what I said. Unless he's got a compelling personal reason to stay in Chicago, I just don't know why a guy like him would want to play out the string on this crappy team.

 

Just guessing, but unless he's hurt I'm sure he's thinking he's going to bounce back any day now and put up big numbers the rest of the year. If he does that but he's traded then he's locked in to next year wherever he goes. He'll be making a good chunk of change for 2012 if that's the case, true, but I'm sure he'd rather try for something like a 3-year deal for, say, at least around $9 million per. I know that's by no means a sure thing, but who knows what he's thinking/his agent is telling him? With 3B production down across baseball if he can rebound and have a huge second half it suddenly makes him that much more appealing as FA to a number of teams.

[kujay]

*waits for Rosenbloom column where he makes a remark like 'Of course he wants to stay here. Why would he want to play somewhere else where he can get paid to look disinterested and halfass it with no accountability?"*

 

Kujay basically said that already

 

Was I wrong?

 

And that's not quite what I said. Unless he's got a compelling personal reason to stay in Chicago, I just don't know why a guy like him would want to play out the string on this crappy team.

 

Just guessing, but unless he's hurt I'm sure he's thinking he's going to bounce back any day now and put up big numbers the rest of the year. If he does that but he's traded then he's locked in to next year wherever he goes. He'll be making a good chunk of change for 2012 if that's the case, true, but I'm sure he'd rather try for something like a 3-year deal for, say, at least around $9 million per. I know that's by no means a sure thing, but who knows what he's thinking/his agent is telling him? With 3B production down across baseball if he can rebound and have a huge second half it suddenly makes him that much more appealing as FA to a number of teams.

 

That makes sense. Not that it will actually happen, but that he probably thinks it will.

[Clem Fandango]

Oh man, I was really hoping we could trade him for useless scraps instead

[Tarver]

Even assuming he gets his power #'s back up to a respectable level, will Ramirez still be viable at 3B a year from now?

[Sammy Sofa]

Even assuming he gets his power #'s back up to a respectable level, will Ramirez still be viable at 3B a year from now?

 

If his power numbers rebound why wouldn't he be?

[Tarver]

Respectable is too subjective a term. Let's say if he doesn't end up with an OPS north of .850, is he worth eight figures to play third? His defense is becoming an issue.

[Sammy Sofa]

.850+ would be pretty [expletive] phenomenal given how down 3B production is around baseball.

[Guest]

.850+ would be pretty [expletive] phenomenal given how down 3B production is around baseball.

 

Yeah, Ramirez is 7th of 17 qualified 3B in OPS. Only 3 guys are above .776.

[davearm2]

Nobody should be taking any comfort in the fact that everyone else's 3B has sucked too, unless they think 3Bs hitting like 70s era shortstops is a true longterm trend.

 

Ramirez has been godawful. The rest is just coincidence.

[Guest]

Yep, everyone else will get better except for Aramis.

[davearm2]

Yep, everyone else will get better except for Aramis.

Everyone else will get better. Who knows about Aramis. But his problem is not that all his 3B comrades have sucked.

[Sammy Sofa]

Nobody said it was. One poster brought up whether it was realistic for him to get eight figures if he ended up producing above an .850 OPS. The production of 3B around baseball is going to strongly influence whether that happens or not, so, yes, if he rebounds that much then there's a very good chance he could command at least $10 million next year.

 

And no, he hasn't been "godawful" this year. He hasn't been the power threat they need, especially not for the money he's getting, but he's not "godawful."

[Tarver]

Nobody said it was. One poster brought up whether it was realistic for him to get eight figures if he ended up producing above an .850 OPS. The production of 3B around baseball is going to strongly influence whether that happens or not, so, yes, if he rebounds that much then there's a very good chance he could command at least $10 million next year.

 

And no, he hasn't been "godawful" this year. He hasn't been the power threat they need, especially not for the money he's getting, but he's not "godawful."

 

I have no doubt someone will throw $10 mil at him, I meant is it worth it to us. IMO the money would be better spent elsewhere.