Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[Sammy Sofa]

Albert's one of the best defensive 1b in the league, so I'm confident that this won't turn into a Carlos Lee situation, but eight years? You know in 2016 were gonna be right here, trying to think of ways to dump him.

 

Maybe. But the first 5+ years will likely be amazing.

 

Not only will the first half be glorious, but the cost certainty involved will allow the Cubs several years to plan for 2017 and beyond.

 

Very true.

[Tarver]

I threw out Reyes and Fielder because I think they'd provide better value for the money. Yes, Reyes is a huge injury risk. Let's talk about Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Matt Kemp, and Joey Votto. Albert isn't gonna make us an immediate contender, and that's one hell of an investment for just ONE guy.

 

Average WAR:

 

Fielder + Reyes: 6.5

Pujols: 8.0

 

Pujols is already more valuable than both Fielder and Reyes combined, and then you can tack on 1-2 WAR to the Pujols total when factoring in a young second baseman such as Barney or LeMahehieu's production (Barney's already been worth .9 WAR this year and LeMaheieu should be better). Bump the Pujols total up to 11.5 if the Ricketts allow both Pujols and Reyes to be signed.

 

As for cost, Fielder's agent is Scott Boras, so you know he's getting the biggest contract he possibly can. It's certainly not out of the question to pay Fielder 8 years and $25 million per year and then Reyes is going to want a minimum of 4-5 years and $11-14 million per year (comparable to the Furcal deal). So here's how the money looks:

 

Average cost per year:

Fielder + Reyes: $39 million

Pujols: $30 million

 

So you're paying more money for less value in Fielder and Reyes. Even considering both Fielder and Reyes have bodies and skillsets making them more likely to decline much more quickly than Pujols.

 

Those WAR #s are a reach and you know it.

 

If Pujols was a Boras client he'd be signed to an extension by now. For whatever reason the StL FO and Boras are like peas and carrots. They've gotten discounts since Drew and Ankiel came up.

 

Like I said, unless these guys just chase dollars, what big market, perennially competitive clubs are in a position to offer big money?

 

Given that it's Pujols it's difficult to automatically dismiss too many teams from making an offer if he indeed goes to FA.

 

Sure, but unless the Dodgers or Mets are sold by November we shouldn't have much competition.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, given the FA we're talking about here it's far too premature to dismiss almost all of the other teams as being able to put together deals to appeal to him.

[Tarver]

Again, given the FA we're talking about here it's far too premature to dismiss almost all of the other teams as being able to put together deals to appeal to him.

 

In that case let's think about ways to get Jesus Montero.

[KingCubsFan]

Again, given the FA we're talking about here it's far too premature to dismiss almost all of the other teams as being able to put together deals to appeal to him.

 

In that case let's think about ways to get Jesus Montero.

I don't think there's a pitcher in our organization that could get us Montero.

[Rob]

Again, given the FA we're talking about here it's far too premature to dismiss almost all of the other teams as being able to put together deals to appeal to him.

 

In that case let's think about ways to get Jesus Montero.

I don't think there's a pitcher in our organization that could get us Montero.

 

Garza probably could.

 

But yeah, Montero isn't getting traded for a bunch of our prospects. The Yankees were willing to include him in deals for top-shelf guys... not Blake DeWitt and change.

[dew1679666265]

Those WAR #s are a reach and you know it.

 

They're the average of each player's career. I think at least for the next 4-5 years we can expect around those WAR numbers from each player. Even if they're on the high side, you have to assume they're on the high side for all three, so the gap remains.

 

And Pujols has had a WAR greater than 8 every year from 2006-2009. He dropped off in 2010, however, and posted a 7.3 WAR - still higher than the total average between Fielder and Reyes.

 

If Pujols was a Boras client he'd be signed to an extension by now. For whatever reason the StL FO and Boras are like peas and carrots. They've gotten discounts since Drew and Ankiel came up.

 

I'm not seeing your point. I don't think there's much of a chance the Cardinals will sign Fielder, but if they do and they get a discount then great for them. That doesn't change what he'd cost to the Cubs and that's what we're discussing.

 

Like I said, unless these guys just chase dollars, what big market, perennially competitive clubs are in a position to offer big money?

 

The Angels and Blue Jays are likely to be our biggest competition, I think. The Yankees and Red Sox always have a chance to get in on it, but neither has first base open at the moment and the Cubs have that to their advantage. The Dodgers, Phillies and Mets will have no chance at him and the Red Sox and Yankees will have to move big-time players in order to be on the same footing as the Cubs, so the competition is low.

 

Which is all the more reason to go hard after Pujols. In most years, 10/300 is the baseline you start at in negotiations for Pujols. However, with teams likely in competition for him being so low, you can probably start at 8/184 (23/yr) and hopefully finish on a much lower number than 10/300. My argument isn't that we should give him 10/300, it's that we should be willing to do so if necessary.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Yankees and Red Sox always have a chance to get in on it, but neither has first base open at the moment and the Cubs have that to their advantage.

 

Though I think the DH ultimately makes that irrelevant. The Red Sox especially could decide to get in on this with Ortiz' contract up after this season and Youkilis' up after 2012 with him being 34 in 2013. Posada's contract is also up after this year, so both could easily be in on this if they so choose (both, however, have valuable 3B that could benefit from being DH sooner rather than later, although that obviously hinges on what the Sox' plans for Youk are).

[Guest]

Yeah, if they go back to sucking.

 

And a "blip" in attendance? If they signed Pujols and generally have a good offseason they'll go back to selling out.

 

But please, explain why you think the Cubs' payroll would go down if they put a better team on the field and attendance goes back up. Is there another sale coming up? Are the Ricketts going to be rocked by some kind of financial strife? What information are you privy to? What are you basing this on besides the payroll limitations they've primarily had due to the sale?

I didn't say I thought the Cubs' payroll would go down. I said it wasn't out of the question.

 

The Cubs' alltime attendance high was roughly 3.3M (in 2008). Last year it was about 3.1M. So they've got a ceiling of about 200K in additional fans through the gates. Divide $30M into that (Pujols' estimated salary) and you'd need every one of those fans to show up, and generate $150 in revenue apiece, to cover Pujols' salary.

 

The Yankees pull in about $45 in revenue per fan. The Giants are tops in MLB, at $78 per fan.

 

So even under the absolute best case ($78 per fan x 200,000 fans = $15.6M), your added revenue covers about half of Pujols' salary. Make it about a third, if the Cubs' revenue rate is on par with the Yanks'.

 

Want to rethink that "walking moneymaker" theory?

 

Attendance numbers: http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/2000-10attendance.htm

Revenues per fan: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-forbesmlbfans052209

 

Looking at the attendance figures is not a good way to do it in this case.

 

Did you watch any of the games during the second half of last year? People weren't showing up. Yes, they sold the tickets, but that's all the Cubs were getting out of a good chunk of the fans. No beer sales. No food. No merchandise.

 

The Cubs have been averaging 35,030 fans at games this year but there's not a chance they're averaging that many in terms of people actually showing up.

[dew1679666265]

Though I think the DH ultimately makes that irrelevant. The Red Sox especially could decide to get in on this with Ortiz' contract up after this season and Youkilis' up after 2012 with him being 34 in 2013. Posada's contract is also up after this year, so both could easily be in on this if they so choose (both, however, have valuable 3B that could benefit from being DH sooner rather than later, although that obviously hinges on what the Sox' plans for Youk are).

 

I think Pujols prefers to play first base, so the Red Sox (Gonzalez) and the Yankees (Teix) would have to either move their current first basemen to DH or sell Pujols on DHing. The Cubs probably will have the advantage going head-to-head with either and can pay a little less for Pujols to play first in Chicago.

[Sammy Sofa]

Though I think the DH ultimately makes that irrelevant. The Red Sox especially could decide to get in on this with Ortiz' contract up after this season and Youkilis' up after 2012 with him being 34 in 2013. Posada's contract is also up after this year, so both could easily be in on this if they so choose (both, however, have valuable 3B that could benefit from being DH sooner rather than later, although that obviously hinges on what the Sox' plans for Youk are).

 

I think Pujols prefers to play first base, so the Red Sox (Gonzalez) and the Yankees (Teix) would have to either move their current first basemen to DH or sell Pujols on DHing.

 

Obviously, but that's relatively incidental compared to being able to effectively give him whatever he wants when it comes to years and money. And I don't think it would be too hard to convince either guy to move to DH if it means they get Pujols on their team.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Though I think the DH ultimately makes that irrelevant. The Red Sox especially could decide to get in on this with Ortiz' contract up after this season and Youkilis' up after 2012 with him being 34 in 2013. Posada's contract is also up after this year, so both could easily be in on this if they so choose (both, however, have valuable 3B that could benefit from being DH sooner rather than later, although that obviously hinges on what the Sox' plans for Youk are).

 

I think Pujols prefers to play first base, so the Red Sox (Gonzalez) and the Yankees (Teix) would have to either move their current first basemen to DH or sell Pujols on DHing.

 

Obviously, but that's relatively incidental compared to being able to effectively give him whatever he wants when it comes to years and money. And I don't think it would be too hard to convince either guy to move to DH if it means they get Pujols on their team.

 

Dont be so sure. A lot of guys want to play defense, and its not like A Gon and Teix are a couple of 35 year old wash ups, theyre in their prime, and I beleive pretty good 1Bs.

[Sammy Sofa]

Nobody said they were washed up. Again: it's Pujols. Teams and players will likely go above and beyond to land him. To just automatically assume that a team with a ton of money and room for him will pass on trying to sign him just because "guys like to play defense" is really naive.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Nobody said they were washed up. Again: it's Pujols. Teams and players will likely go above and beyond to land him. To just automatically assume that a team with a ton of money and room for him will pass on trying to sign him just because "guys like to play defense" is really naive.

 

As good as Pujols is, it would be an awful lot of money for a team to pay to fill a need they dont have. Its not like the Yankees and Red Sox are struggling for offense. Im sure theyd love to have him, as any team would, but would it be realisitc for them to sign the guy, considering all the money they already have tied into those teams if its not something they truely need? If they get back on their feet financially, Id still bet on the Mets or Dodgers to be our strongest competiton aside from the Cardinals. As for dark horses like the Nationals or Blue Jays, unless they offer something ridiculous, and blow everyone else out of the water Im sure his agent would prefer he land in a bigger market team if the offers are similar..

[Sammy Sofa]

When has not struggling on offense kept the Yankees from shelling out for the best players when they become available?

 

And the Red Sox are in an even more prime position to be looking at someone like Pujols with both Drew and Ortiz coming off the books after this season.

 

And every team "needs" Pujols. Again, you're being very naive if you think practically all of the teams in baseball are going to completely sit this out if he actually becomes available.

[Little Slide Rooter]

And every team "needs" Pujols. Again, you're being very naive if you think practically all of the teams in baseball are going to completely sit this out if he actually becomes available.

 

Im sure everyone is going to want in. However, like I said, unless some team like the Mariners or Blue Jays blow everyone else out of the water, and all offers are similar, the best business decision is to go with a big market team like Cubs, Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, or Mets. I know baseball players arent as marketable as basketball players, but Pujols could become a serious brand in the right market with the right exposure.

[Sammy Sofa]

And every team "needs" Pujols. Again, you're being very naive if you think practically all of the teams in baseball are going to completely sit this out if he actually becomes available.

 

Im sure everyone is going to want in. However, like I said, unless some team like the Mariners or Blue Jays blow everyone else out of the water, and all offers are similar, the best business decision is to go with a big market team like Cubs, Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, or Mets. I know baseball players arent as marketable as basketball players, but Pujols could become a serious brand in the right market with the right exposure.

 

He's already a "serious brand." He's Pujols.

[MWV]

I'm sure this line of conversation has been previously broached within this thread, but how many PAs does it take before we can start to believe that Pujols' decline in production may be real? At 201 PA, he's sporting a .266/.338/.412 line, well below his past three-year average line (.331/.439/.635). His babip is down 0.051 points relative to those 3-year numbers, but so is his LD% (-5%), and his walk rate is down almost 6%,. His GB/FB has risen by 0.37. He's never finished even close to a 1.0 GB/FB ratio (0.77 at age 23 is the previous high).

Lots more ground balls, fewer HR/FB (-6.9%). It may still be too early too tell, but he is 31 years old. How long can this trend continue without damaging his FA status?

[mookie]

I think we should check back on this Pujol's line around mid-July. If that sucker is still sub-par, concern may be valid. My money is on no.

[erik316wttn]

It's bad when you dream about the Cubs.

 

I had a dream the other night we signed Fielder in the offseason because we felt he was the "safer bet."

[dew1679666265]

Nobody said they were washed up. Again: it's Pujols. Teams and players will likely go above and beyond to land him. To just automatically assume that a team with a ton of money and room for him will pass on trying to sign him just because "guys like to play defense" is really naive.

 

I don't think teams like the Yankees and Red Sox will sit out a Pujols bidding war because they don't have first base open, I do think it'll make it a bit more difficult for them to get him, though. Obviously if one of them outbid everybody else considerably, Pujols will be in either New York or Boston. However, I think Pujols' preference (depending on how strong the preference is) to play first might lead him to accept a slightly lower offer from a team like the Cubs or Angels who have first open than from the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

It's a slight advantage, if at all, but it still very well could be an advantage for the Cubs.

[MWV]

I think we should check back on this Pujol's line around mid-July. If that sucker is still sub-par, concern may be valid. My money is on no.

To produce his career average stat line (excluding this season: .331/.426/.624), he would have to put up the following over the remainder of the season: .360/.463/.713 (assuming he reaches his average AB/PA numbers).

To avoid personal worst seasons in each category, he would have to put up a .333/.418/.624 line for the rest of the season (essentially his career line). It appears very doubtful that he produces at an "average" Albert Pujols level over the course of the season, and not unlikely that he posts the worst full-season line of his career.

Of course the worst season of Albert Pujols' career still makes him a formidable middle-of-the-order hitter, but it doesn't augur well in terms of a long-term contract, considering that last year was a below average season for him as well ("slash stat"-wise, that is, which is admittedly not the best measure of a players' value; he did lead the league in HR). I realize this is a very imprecise analysis, but barring an enormous second half from Pujols, I'd be pretty uncomfortable with the Cubs offering him the money and years that he supposedly seeks.

[dew1679666265]

And every team "needs" Pujols. Again, you're being very naive if you think practically all of the teams in baseball are going to completely sit this out if he actually becomes available.

 

If Pujols actually does become a FA, it'll mean he's looking for probably $25+ million a year and probably closer to $30 mil. Otherwise the Cards would simply resign him for 10/230-240.

 

If he's looking for that type of money, I think every team will at least look into his demands, but that most or all teams with payrolls at or below $100 million will bow out quickly. I can't see a team with an overall budget of $100 million investing 1/3 of that payroll into one player.

 

That would leave the White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, Angels and Cubs as the only teams over a $100 million payroll.

 

The Angels have an opening at first (I believe Napoli is their first baseman) and money to spend with only $80 mil committed for next year and less from there.

 

The Phillies don't have an opening at first and couldn't move Ryan Howard.

 

The Giants could be a player with around $40 million to spend this offseason, but Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez are hitting their third round of arbitration. I don't see the Giants going much higher than around $25 mil a year as between Pujols and Lincecum's raise, they'd have very little money left to spend this offseason. Then after 2012, Cain becomes a FA and Posey and Sandoval starting hitting arbitration years. A hefty bump in payroll would make them a legit contender, though.

 

The Red Sox, as you said, will have Drew and Ortiz coming off the books and have a DH spot open. There'd be some animosity if they move Gonzalez to DH, but that won't keep them from competing.

 

The Yankees are always a player in any big name FA, but they do have Teix at first. Jeter, I'd think, will also move off SS at some point and if he doesn't go to the OF, he may occupy the DH spot.

 

The Tigers have Miggy Cabrera at first and Victor Martinez already DHing and making $13 mil. He might be tradeable and, if so, they could compete but would have to move Martinez first, I'd think.

 

I had no idea the Twins were over $100 million, but they are. They also have Morneau at first and Mauer getting hurt a lot. I don't know that they want to fill the DH slot for the next 10 years and have nowhere to move Mauer to from behind the plate.

 

The White Sox are near $130 million this year, but have Adam Dunn (2014) and Paul Konerko (2013) filling first and DH. Neither will be movable after the year, so I don't see how they could make a push for Pujols unless they're willing to play Dunn in the outfield for the next two years.

 

Out of that group, the Angels are definitely a contender and the Giants and Tigers could be. The Blue Jays have also shown a willingness to spend big (Wells and Rios) and might be a factor as well. I think a lot of teams will try for Pujols, but the vast majority will bow out as the pricetag moves above $25 mil/yr.

[dew1679666265]

I'm sure this line of conversation has been previously broached within this thread, but how many PAs does it take before we can start to believe that Pujols' decline in production may be real? At 201 PA, he's sporting a .266/.338/.412 line, well below his past three-year average line (.331/.439/.635). His babip is down 0.051 points relative to those 3-year numbers, but so is his LD% (-5%), and his walk rate is down almost 6%,. His GB/FB has risen by 0.37. He's never finished even close to a 1.0 GB/FB ratio (0.77 at age 23 is the previous high).

Lots more ground balls, fewer HR/FB (-6.9%). It may still be too early too tell, but he is 31 years old. How long can this trend continue without damaging his FA status?

 

It's a concern, no doubt. If he picks it up fairly soon and finishes the year with more typical numbers, I don't think it will or should have much impact on opinions of him. If he doesn't start hitting like the Pujols we're used to or if it takes him until the ASB or something similar, then it'd be cause for pause coupled with the dip in WAR last season.

[davearm2]

I could totally see Teixeira in LF for the Yankees on opening day, if they decide they want in on Pujols.