Cubs Youth Movement - Top 20 Prospects (20 Yrs or Younger)

[CubsWin]

The Cubs brought up 3 prospects last season that made key contributions in Cashner, Castro and Colvin. But that's not the youth movement we're talking about in this thread.

 

The Cubs have several highly regarded prospects that are all 22 or 21 in Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, Trey McNutt, Hayden Simpson, Josh Vitters, D.J. LeMahieu among others. But we're not talking about that youth movement either.

 

This thread is about the depth of prospects 20 and younger currently in the Cubs system. There are enough decent ones worth following that we can put together a top 20 of just prospects who can't yet legally drink this New Year's Eve. Here's mine.

 

1. Hak-Ju Lee

2. Junior Lake

3. Reggie Golden

4. Aaron Kurcz

5. Jae-Hoon Ha

6. Robinson Lopez

7. Jeffry Antigua

8. Su-Min Jung

9. Ben Wells

10. Austin Reed

11. Arismendy Alcantara

12. Matt Cerda

13. Pin-Chieh Chen

14. Austin Kirk

15. Cam Greathouse

16. Luis Liria

17. Hunter Ackerman

18. Ryan Hartman

19. Wes Darvill

20. Tzu-An Wang

 

Those of you with more in depth scouting reports, feel free to rip apart my hastily-put-together top 20 list of best guesses.

[Sammy Sofa]

I love that almost all of that list reads like a bunch of Wu-Tang aliases.

 

Good stuff. Definitely want to look in on a bunch of them since a lot are new to me.

[Guest]

I wouldn't rate Kurcz higher than some of those starting pitchers who have the stuff to stick at SP and have gotten to full season ball. I can't rate a reliever too high, no matter his success, since he hasn't gotten past short season ball.

[wvcbxl]

...a top 20 of just prospects who can't yet legally drink this New Year's Eve.

 

That depends on where they spend New Year's Eve. :wink:

 

Great list, thanks.

[CubsWin]

...a top 20 of just prospects who can't yet legally drink this New Year's Eve.

 

That depends on where they spend New Year's Eve. :wink:

 

Great list, thanks.

Very true, Mr. Brussels...

[CubsWin]

I wouldn't rate Kurcz higher than some of those starting pitchers who have the stuff to stick at SP and have gotten to full season ball. I can't rate a reliever too high, no matter his success, since he hasn't gotten past short season ball.

Fair enough. Let's put him after Su-Min Jung then.

[CubsWin]

The exciting thing about this list, besides the fact that they are all currently 20 or younger, is that all of them except for two put up solid to very good numbers last season. And the two that didn't were a highly-touted pac rim free agent pitcher who's 6'6" and a left-handed starter taken in the 4th round last year. In other words, there's reason to have hope that they might still pan out.

[toonsterwu]

I haven't really pondered an under 20 list, but thinking about it today ...

 

Should Hak-ju Lee really be above Junior Lake? I ask this in all seriousness. Yes, there's defensive upside with Lee. He could be really, really good defensively ... but he is not there yet, and not even close to there yet. Offensively, outside of one or two voices, the reality is, I've thought his best case was a Che-Hsuan Lin type guy, and I still feel that way (that is, a speedy offensive player with a fringy bat).

 

Lost amidst the discussion on Lake's approach and consistency is the fact that he really improved defensively this year. He has the tools to be good at short if he stayed there. Lee's probably got a higher floor than Lake ... but ... is that enough to compensate for a gigantic gulf in potential (IMO)?

 

I think it's an interesting discussion that hasn't been focused on this offseason. I feel like Lee was hyped a lot and skates a bit in the discussion on his flaws, whereas a lot of folks, including myself, were really down on Lake last year, and thus, sort of like the BCS, made it tougher for him to rise up a ton because, well, he's starting from further back. I should note that I'm not in love with Lake - I'd like to see some level of solid offensive consistency before feeling too positive, so perhaps this should be viewed as my being lukewarm on the Lee train.

[toonsterwu]

Oh, and I'd rate Cerda higher. Good apporach, a chance for a bit more power, solid defensively. More of a high floor guy than a ceiling guy, but there's a lot of boom/bust in our under 20 list (obviously), and he's actually somewhat safe.

[CUBZ99]

I haven't really pondered an under 20 list, but thinking about it today ...

 

Should Hak-ju Lee really be above Junior Lake? I ask this in all seriousness. Yes, there's defensive upside with Lee. He could be really, really good defensively ... but he is not there yet, and not even close to there yet. Offensively, outside of one or two voices, the reality is, I've thought his best case was a Che-Hsuan Lin type guy, and I still feel that way (that is, a speedy offensive player with a fringy bat).

 

Lost amidst the discussion on Lake's approach and consistency is the fact that he really improved defensively this year. He has the tools to be good at short if he stayed there. Lee's probably got a higher floor than Lake ... but ... is that enough to compensate for a gigantic gulf in potential (IMO)?

 

I think it's an interesting discussion that hasn't been focused on this offseason. I feel like Lee was hyped a lot and skates a bit in the discussion on his flaws, whereas a lot of folks, including myself, were really down on Lake last year, and thus, sort of like the BCS, made it tougher for him to rise up a ton because, well, he's starting from further back. I should note that I'm not in love with Lake - I'd like to see some level of solid offensive consistency before feeling too positive, so perhaps this should be viewed as my being lukewarm on the Lee train.

 

There is a reason why every scout/publication ranks Lee higher than Lake. Lake really doesn't do one thing better than Lee other than hit for a little bit more power. Lee is younger, hits better for avg., walks more, gets on base more, is a much-much better base runner (rates at 70+ speed) and by every account is better in the field. Also, if you look at progress, Lake really hasn't gotten better offensively. His best year was two years ago, he had a terrible year in 2009 and beside his SLG last year, he wasn't very good.

 

Lake's only advantage at this point is the fact he can hit a few more HR's than Lee and played 2010 at a more advanced level than Lee.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that I hate Lake, or that he can't potentially develop into a better player. He was hardly embarrassed at A+ for his age, but the numbers (and scouting reports) just don't support him being anywhere near the prospect that Lee is.

[Guest]

You have to take into account that Lake played in the biggest pitcher's league in the minors. And if you want to see progress, the improvement from first half to second half in Lake is pretty notable.

[CUBZ99]

You have to take into account that Lake played in the biggest pitcher's league in the minors. And if you want to see progress, the improvement from first half to second half in Lake is pretty notable.

 

I wasn't able to find the 1st/2nd half splits for Lake. What did they look like? I did see that Lee improved quite a bit in the second half, also.

 

And, how good is Lake's range/defense at SS? From all accounts Lee has incredible range and even though his error totals are fairly high, his defense has been graded fairly high and his ceiling is by all accounts extremely high. I noticed that Lake committed 42 errors in 2009, and 41 in 2010. He is going to have to improve quite a bit to make up for that many errors.

[toonsterwu]

Lake has plus range at short and a plus arm. His movement is a bit choppy, but he has the raw tools to be an good defensive shortstop. Of course, movement has to improve for that to happen. One thing to keep in mind about his error totals from this year - he played in Daytona, and that field is notoriously bad. Most indications are that the general view of Lake's defense is that he improved tremendously.

 

Lee certainly has better defensive potential than Lake, but it's not by that much.

 

On Lake vs. Lee's offense - Lee's positive case scenario is a slap hitting, Juan Pierre type of offensive player (best case would be something like Frankie Pilere's assessment - he suggested that Lee could slap a few HR's). Lake has far more power potential than Lee - Lake arguably has one of the higher power potentials in the entire system (granted, that isn't saying much, but he has 20-25 HR power if he develops).

 

Lee's average advantage is tied into plus speed (and I really question if he's a 70 speed guy anymore ... is he still top 5 in our system in regards to pure speed ... I'm not so sure (not that being top 5 in speed relates to what type of speed he has)). If he fills out and loses any of that speed ... what's he left with offensively?

 

Both Lake and Lee have to show some level of offensive consistency. Lee's 2nd half was better, but that was bolstered by a hot July, and I believe July was Lake's hot month, off the top.

 

We're talking about, unless he develops some power, a really fringy bat in Lee whose offensive value is tied up in his speed. If he played any other position besides shortstop, we'd be talking about a C/C+ type prospect. He can get away with fringe offense at short, but he needs to be elite defensively, and he's not there yet.

[CUBZ99]

Lake has plus range at short and a plus arm. His movement is a bit choppy, but he has the raw tools to be an good defensive shortstop. Of course, movement has to improve for that to happen. One thing to keep in mind about his error totals from this year - he played in Daytona, and that field is notoriously bad. Most indications are that the general view of Lake's defense is that he improved tremendously.

 

Didn't know that about Daytona's field, but the scouting report sounds encouraging.

 

 

We're talking about, unless he develops some power, a really fringy bat in Lee whose offensive value is tied up in his speed. If he played any other position besides shortstop, we'd be talking about a C/C+ type prospect. He can get away with fringe offense at short, but he needs to be elite defensively, and he's not there yet.

 

I think you are selling Lee incredibly short. At 19 years old, he more than held his own in class A ball and showed that he had the ability to adjust to the pitching and make improvements throughout the year. There is no indication that at his age that he has lost any speed or that his speed is a tool that will disappear. He gets on base at a pretty good clip, hits for decent avg., steals bases semi-effectively, and by all accounts can be spectacular defensively. Your only complaint seems to be his lack of power so far. At 6'2" 170 there is plenty of room for him to grow and fill out. There is plenty to be excited about. One more year of 800+ OPS and I think he becomes a top 5 prospect in the system.

[toonsterwu]

I think most people view him as a top 5ish prospect right now.

 

The problem with Lee filling out is that

 

a) It diminishes his one plus asset right now, which is speed (there have been some ... talk ... that his speed is less than what it was in Boise and AZL ... I don't think anyone really thinks that he is 170 at the start of a season ... I believe the rumored number this year, at the start, was in the 180 range). Frame guesswork would suggest that weight gain would be lower half.

 

b) His power is never going to be a plus asset, and it's likely never going to be an above average asset. Can he develop enough power to offset the speed loss? To do so means reworking his swing (I haven't seen much loft, and most reports suggest that).

 

I'm not saying I'm not excited about Lee. I'm just ... lukewarm in that excitement and wonder if the judgments on Lake have been a bit hasty (haven't seen Lake ranked all that high this offseason, most have him in that 8-20 range it seems). I'm also not saying I'm not intrigued with Lee. My initial purpose was to question whether or not Lee should be significantly ahead of Lake (most people have Lee borderline top 5).

 

As a side note, if he posts an .800 OPS year, he'd be a solid top 3 in the system. That would mean that he's showcasing some legit power, in all likelihood (or is having an insane, Guyer-esque (2nd half) year.

[CubsWin]

Lake has plus range at short and a plus arm. His movement is a bit choppy, but he has the raw tools to be an good defensive shortstop. Of course, movement has to improve for that to happen. One thing to keep in mind about his error totals from this year - he played in Daytona, and that field is notoriously bad. Most indications are that the general view of Lake's defense is that he improved tremendously.

 

Lee certainly has better defensive potential than Lake, but it's not by that much.

 

On Lake vs. Lee's offense - Lee's positive case scenario is a slap hitting, Juan Pierre type of offensive player (best case would be something like Frankie Pilere's assessment - he suggested that Lee could slap a few HR's). Lake has far more power potential than Lee - Lake arguably has one of the higher power potentials in the entire system (granted, that isn't saying much, but he has 20-25 HR power if he develops).

 

Lee's average advantage is tied into plus speed (and I really question if he's a 70 speed guy anymore ... is he still top 5 in our system in regards to pure speed ... I'm not so sure (not that being top 5 in speed relates to what type of speed he has)). If he fills out and loses any of that speed ... what's he left with offensively?

 

Both Lake and Lee have to show some level of offensive consistency. Lee's 2nd half was better, but that was bolstered by a hot July, and I believe July was Lake's hot month, off the top.

 

We're talking about, unless he develops some power, a really fringy bat in Lee whose offensive value is tied up in his speed. If he played any other position besides shortstop, we'd be talking about a C/C+ type prospect. He can get away with fringe offense at short, but he needs to be elite defensively, and he's not there yet.

Lake may have the highest ceiling of any Cub prospect at the moment, so if we are just ranking based on ceiling then, yes, Lake should be ahead of Lee. Lake had a breakthrough July, but returned to earth later in the 2nd half. He's still just 20 (he'll have just turned 21 when the season starts), so he still has time for the light to turn on and stay on, but Lee is already reaching his potential. He has performed better offensively at Low-A and Short Season than Lake did when he was there. Lee's superior speed and defensive ability have already been covered. It seems to me that Lee, while having a lower offensive ceiling than Lake, is more likely to reach his and for that reason (plus the speed and defense), he gets ranked higher. But certainly a good argument can be made for the reverse.

[CubsWin]

Lee best month was July in which he hit for more power going .345/.418/.437. But his June and August weren't bad. In June he went .294/.368/.318 and in August he was .283/.347/.345. So I think it would be more accurate to say he had a slow start adjusting to the MWL in April and May and then started to hit.

 

Lee's floor is higher than Lake's, and Lake's ceiling is higher than Lee's. It is Lee's ability to reach his ceiling that, for me, sets him apart...even if it is just slightly apart.

[Guest]

I'm glad to see others finally coming around to me ranking Lake ahead of Lee. :)

[craig]

Lake was incredibly horrific for the first weeks or so. He was K'ing a ton, was hitting maybe .175 with no power and an OPS little better than .500. What he did after that offensively, to bring his season numbers back to where they ended up, was pretty surprising.

 

I like Lee ahead of Lake, but I've never seen either and my thoughts are entirely derivative, based on what others have said or reported. Hard to know how much weight to give to different sources. Frankie P watches Lee for a week and writes his views, with background as a pro scout.

 

Toonster, you give a very different spin. Unfortunately and with all respect, I don't even know how to contextualize your analysis. Do you watch these players yourself? Do you live in Peoria and see handfuls of games, or whatever? I don't know at all. Are you friends with Fleita or Wilken or one of the cross-checkers, so that even if you aren't watching them directly you're getting inside dope from people who are really watching them a lot? I have no idea. I'd love it if some of you most knowledgable posters shared that kind of perspective with us. And if you're like me, only a much more thorough reader of observations that have been posted on internet or in scouting books, that's fine too. For some years I think I captured and copied/saved pretty much every public comment or scouting evaluation about Cub prospects. So I had a much more thorough perspective on the range of scouting opinions about guys than I do now, when I know I miss quite a few.

 

As for Lee, it's hard to know which opinion to give more weight. Seems to me there is the toonster version (pretty low and negative), the Frankie P perspective (way positive), and the BA assessment which is very favorable but is in between. To finish in the top 15 in the very deep Midwest League is pretty favorable. On any player different scouts have different opinions, so having a range of opinions is more the norm than the exception. But when there seems to be a lot of overlap from different sources, I generally give extra value there. There seems to be a lot of respect for Lee in general and for his defense in particular.

 

I've seen more reports on Lee's defense than on Lake's, and the Lee reports have been consistently favorable. Report on Lee's physique also don't read as if he's likely to outgrow the position physically. So my impression is that he might become a premium defensive SS. I haven't read as much about Lake's defense, other than the obvious that he has a great arm and makes lots of errors. I'm surprised that this thread is suggesting that Lake's defense is almost as promising as Lee's. I'd just assumed that like most tall biggish teenagers with power potential who begin at SS, that he'd not end up there. If Lake actually projects as a high-quality plus-range plus-plus-plus-arm regular big-league SS, that's much more exciting than I've been expecting. I'm surprised, but I hope you guys are right.

 

It's true that off of SS, Lee's offense would raise complaints. But high-level defensive SS's who have a chance to be high-OBP LH-hitting leadoff men don't grow on trees. I think Lee has a reasonable chance to be a .290BA-.350OBP leadoff guy. My understanding is that he can and does hit the ball hard sometimes, and will add some doubles strength. If he becomes a 5-10 HR guy with doubles power, I think that would be enough power to support a pretty good BA and OBP. It's hard to hit for real solid average if you're a 0-1 HR guy, but at the 5-10 level, I think that can be enough. SB's are unnecessary, but would be some nice frosting.

 

Having a long-term fixture at leadoff would be pretty valuable. The Cubs haven't enjoyed good middle-infield defense or a quality leadoff guy very often.

 

So I think Lee iis a high-value prospect, and I don't know enough to put Lake at that level. If Lee is that significant a prospect, and Lake is as good or better, and both kind of worked out, that would be just fabulous.

 

I'm not quite sure, toonster, whether your take on Lee/Lake is a little different because you like Lee for some of the reasons I do, but also think Lake is terrific and have reason to value him perhaps more than I understood. Or if your relative valuation of the two is more a reflection of liking Lake, but not valuing Lee nearly as much as I or Frankie P or a lot of the guys who BA talks to. HOpefully the positive evaluations on both players end up being justified, and we have two long-term asset regulars on our hands.

 

Seems to me that Lake's potential talent, to throw with a big arm and to hit with some power, that is much more position-switchable. A big arm is very desirable at 3B, and a big arm is very desirable at RF, and some athleticism helps at both places. If he had 20+ HR power and has a big arm, he could potentially fit in almost anywhere.

[CUBZ99]

Toonster, you give a very different spin. Unfortunately and with all respect, I don't even know how to contextualize your analysis. Do you watch these players yourself? Do you live in Peoria and see handfuls of games, or whatever? I don't know at all. Are you friends with Fleita or Wilken or one of the cross-checkers, so that even if you aren't watching them directly you're getting inside dope from people who are really watching them a lot? I have no idea. I'd love it if some of you most knowledgable posters shared that kind of perspective with us. And if you're like me, only a much more thorough reader of observations that have been posted on internet or in scouting books, that's fine too. For some years I think I captured and copied/saved pretty much every public comment or scouting evaluation about Cub prospects. So I had a much more thorough perspective on the range of scouting opinions about guys than I do now, when I know I miss quite a few.

 

I think this is a valid point. Considering Lake's numbers and almost every scouting report, it would be nice to know specifically what Toonster, Tim and other posters that are big on Lake have seen of him. I was finally able to locate Lake's splits for 2010 and he really only had one good month(July) out of the year. The scouting reports on him don't seem to indicate anything special about him, like they do for Lee. I think most of us rely mainly on 2nd hand info and others reports of ability. The classic five tools are the ability to hit for avg., hit for power, speed (base-running ability), fielding, and throwing. Based on every scouting report that I've seen Lee is head and shoulders above Lake on every tool except power. Personally, I haven't seen either one of them play yet, but it would be interesting to see just what makes people think that Lake should be rated higher than Lee despite all of the scouting info and actual production to date.

[questionmarkgrace]

Lee reminds me a lot of Alcides Escobar. Young shortstops always rack up a ton of errors but by all accounts he will be a really good defender. Offensively, Escobar and Lee are projected to be an average guy with 5-10 homerun power. Both guys imo will be mlb short stops but nothing special offensively. I like the idea of using Lee as tradebait down the road just like the Brewers did with Escobar, especially because short stop is a position of depth. As others have said, Lake has the higher ceiling but also at higher risk of moving positions and maintaining consistency. I personally would prefer a guy like Lake, mainly because he is more rounded. For Lee to make it he needs to be an elite defender and high average/high obp guy. Teams wont tolerate a guy who is just mediocre at one or the other, especially a guy with little to no power.

[CubsWin]

I was finally able to locate Lake's splits for 2010 and he really only had one good month(July) out of the year.

Where? I was looking for them as well. Fangraphs has game logs, but no splits.

[craig]

...Based on every scouting report that I've seen Lee is head and shoulders above Lake on every tool except power. ....

 

My read is that Lake also definitely has a stronger arm. Whether it's as accurate, or whether he has the footwork and release time to make it as effective I don't know. But it's stronger.

 

(Strength means a lot, but the stronger-armed SS isn't always the better-throwing SS. I am old enough to remember Shawon Dunston, who had a rocket, and Rey Sanchez. Dunston clearly threw harder, but Sanchez could play much deeper and was much better defensively because his release time was really quick, whereas Dunston had this massive windup that took forever. The time from the ball hitting the glove to actually getting to 1B was much longer with the Dunston-cannon than with Sanchez. IMO. I'm not at all suggesting that Lake has any such problem, just that a stronger-armed guy isn't automatically the preferable thrower.)

[CUBZ99]

I was finally able to locate Lake's splits for 2010 and he really only had one good month(July) out of the year.

Where? I was looking for them as well. Fangraphs has game logs, but no splits.

 

Here is what I found. http://firstinning.com/players/Junior-Lake-a/

 

and I was wrong he had a decent June with an .800+ OPS.

[toonsterwu]

couple comments -

 

a) I do not mean to imply that Lake will be an elite defender. I don't believe I said that, if that implication was read from my statements, I do apologize. The ability is there for him to be a good defensive player, but he has to iron out some things.

 

b) By no means should this be read as me being big on Junior Lake. I've said elsewhere that I'm actually quite lukewarm on Lake (in fact, over on another site, I thought Lake was the most likely Cubs prospect to bust in 2011). I like to see some level of offensive consistency out of guys. To his credit, Lake did have a very solid 2nd half.

 

c) If anything, as I said above, this should be viewed as that I like Lee, am intrigued and excited by Lee (if Starlin "owns' shortstop, making it hard for the Cubs to move him off the position, I wouldn't mind seeing Hak-ju in CF, allowing Brett to bulk up some more and focus on his offense), but feel the hype on Lee is a bit much and

 

d) Whether or not the judgments on Lake (including my own lists) are perhaps somewhat more reflective upon the concerns he had last year.