BA Southern League Top 20

[toonsterwu]

Castro misses cutoff. BJax 8, Archer 9, Guyer sneaks on at 14.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610759.html

1. Mike Stanton,of, Jacksonville Suns (Marlins)

2. Dustin Ackley, 2b, West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Mariners)

3. Michael Pineda, rhp, West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Mariners)

4. Mike Minor, lhp, Mississippi Braves

5. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Huntsville Stars (Brewers)

6. Dee Gordon, ss, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers)

7. Devin Mesoraco, c, Carolina Mudcats (Reds)

8. Brett Jackson, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

9. Chris Archer, rhp, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

10. Matt Dominguez, 3b, Jacksonville Suns (Marlins)

11. Chris Withrow, rhp, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers)

12. Alex Torres, lhp, Montgomery Biscuits (Rays)

13. Trayvon Robinson, of, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers)

14. Brandon Guyer, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

15. David Sappelt, of, Carolina Mudcats (Reds)

16. Alex Liddi, 3b/1b, West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Mariners)

17. Brandon Beachy, rhp, Mississippi Braves

18. Brent Morel, 3b, Birmingham Barons (White Sox)

19. Alex Cobb, rhp, Montgomery Biscuits (Rays)

20. Jerry Sands, of/1b, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers)

[Guest]

Ackley number 2? Really?

[davell]

Beat me to it. :D I'm really surprised Dee Gordon was ranked so high by them. Dustin Ackley gets too much love as far as I'm concerned as well. Minor's going to be solid, but I think Archer's upside is better. Mesoraco finally put together a solid season, so I can understand where he's ranked anyway. I love Pineda and like Lawrie alot too, but I don't see Chris Withrow made the list so close to Jackson and Archer either. He was AWFUL all year, lost velocity AND control.

 

At any rate, it's cool to see Guyer make the list at all, I had kind of thought maybe we'd get Carpenter or him, but wasn't counting on it. I did expect Archer to be top 5 and Jackson wound up in the general range I expected.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not huge on Ackley, but after his slow start, he did put together a nice run and is expected to add some power. The big question is whether or not he can stick at 2nd. I can't fault them for placing Minor ahead of Archer - lefty's with good stuff and better command/control are quite valuable, and Archer has some more work needed on his command to ensure that he stays as a starter.

[Outshined_One]

Ackley number 2? Really?

 

Can't fault them for that; lots of people are in love with him. He offers an intriguing ceiling to go with the floor of a solid everyday 2B, in my opinion. I'm not worried about him sticking...but that's me. He's not exactly an exciting prospect, but there are plenty of reasons to like him.

 

Guyer was the most surprising name on this list, to be frank. The guy went completely bonkers in the second half, but he's always struck me as a 4th OF type because I'm not sure he's got the range for the center or the bat for a corner. Who knows, though?

[Guest]

Ackley number 2? Really?

 

Can't fault them for that; lots of people are in love with him. He offers an intriguing ceiling to go with the floor of a solid everyday 2B, in my opinion. I'm not worried about him sticking...but that's me. He's not exactly an exciting prospect, but there are plenty of reasons to like him.

 

On a list as deep as this one, I'm going to have to make "outhit Tony Thomas at the same position" a criteria to be put as high as #2.

[TruffleShuffle]

dee gordon is overrated

[davell]

Chirinos was listed as one of the closest to not make the top 20 evidently.......I know that there are some that don't see Chirinos as a future major league ANYTHING, but if his bat can translate to the majors somewhat, is there any chance we could reverse course with him and let him challenge for 2B next spring? If his bat was almost definitely going to be better than DeWitt or Barney, is it worth the shot?

[TruffleShuffle]

Chirinos was listed as one of the closest to not make the top 20 evidently.......I know that there are some that don't see Chirinos as a future major league ANYTHING, but if his bat can translate to the majors somewhat, is there any chance we could reverse course with him and let him challenge for 2B next spring? If his bat was almost definitely going to be better than DeWitt or Barney, is it worth the shot?

 

he's a catcher

[Guest]

Chirinos was listed as one of the closest to not make the top 20 evidently.......I know that there are some that don't see Chirinos as a future major league ANYTHING, but if his bat can translate to the majors somewhat, is there any chance we could reverse course with him and let him challenge for 2B next spring? If his bat was almost definitely going to be better than DeWitt or Barney, is it worth the shot?

 

he's a catcher

 

He did say "reverse course," implying having Chirinos switch back to the infield.

 

I think it's too late to do that.

[toonsterwu]

Doesn't make much sense to reverse course on Chirinos considering his age, along with the fact that, by most accounts, he's an excellent defensive catcher. That value would top whatever value he had as a middle infielder ... unless his bat really was that good. More and more people seem to be viewing him as a possible starter in the bigs as a catcher.

 

Any intriguing chat tidbits?

[Guest]

Yeah. I'm having problems copying and pasting on my desktop. Will try again on a different computer.

[davell]

Doesn't make much sense to reverse course on Chirinos considering his age, along with the fact that, by most accounts, he's an excellent defensive catcher. That value would top whatever value he had as a middle infielder ... unless his bat really was that good. More and more people seem to be viewing him as a possible starter in the bigs as a catcher.

 

Any intriguing chat tidbits?

 

 

Yeah, I was just kind of wondering IF (and it's a HUGE if) he looked as if he could put up close to an .800 OPS or so, if his defense at 2B could possibly pass. I was impressed enough with Castillo, to feel as if he can be our backup C in 2011, so it kind of leaves Chirinos without a spot. Unless we want to use him as our backup, which then leaves Castillo out in the cold. Either way, it looks like one or the other can and probably will be trade bait relatively quickly. Which is the reason I asked whether Chirinos could possibly still be used at 2B.

[scarey]

Yeah. I'm having problems copying and pasting on my desktop. Will try again on a different computer.

 

Where on the site do you go for the chats?

[Guest]

Yeah. I'm having problems copying and pasting on my desktop. Will try again on a different computer.

 

Where on the site do you go for the chats?

 

It's right below the link to the premium article.

[Guest]

8. Brett Jackson, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

Age: 22. B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 210. Drafted: California, '09 (1).

Jackson continues to refine the power-speed package that led the Cubs to select him with the 31st overall pick in 2009. He followed up a solid debut by batting a combined .297/.395/.493 with 58 extra-base hits and 30 steals between high Class A Daytona and Tennessee.

 

Jackson has a smooth lefthanded stroke with good loft and pull-side power. Jackson struggled with strikeouts in college at California, but scouts say he has developed a more patient approach in pro ball.

 

Jackson has plus speed and good baserunning instincts. His quickness helps him in center field, where he gets good reads and jumps and shows an accurate arm.

[Guest]

9. Chris Archer, rhp, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 180. Drafted: HS—Clayton, N.C., '06 (5/Indians).

Since coming over as part of the three-player package for Mark DeRosa last December, Archer has established himself as Chicago's top pitching prospect.

Archer's fastball sits in the low to mid-90s, and he achieves average life and command from an over-the-top delivery. His slider lacks consistency at times, but it usually ranges from an average to a plus-plus pitch. His changeup also has its moments.

 

Archer is very athletic and has a fluid, repeatable delivery. Nevertheless, his control can get spotty and he struggled to pitch to contact at times with the Smokies. He has enough stuff to possibly become a closer if he can't add the polish to become a big league starter.

 

14. Brandon Guyer, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

Age: 24. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 210. Drafted: Virginia '07 (5).

Guyer isn't young for a prospect at 24, but he has solid across-the-board tools and turned in the best season of his four-year pro career. He led the league in slugging (.588) and OPS (.986) while stealing 30 bases 33 attempts.

 

The ball jumps off Guyer's bat and he's a potential .280 hitter with 15 homers annually in the majors. He's still developing as a hitter, though, as he tends to hunt for pitches off the plate and sometimes gets himself out by taking defensive swings. He makes good contact but doesn't work counts or draw walks as much as he should.

 

Guyer has plus speed and an aggressive mentality on the basepaths. Capable of playing all three outfield positions, he reads balls well off the bat and makes strong accurate throws. One scout compared Guyer to Reed Johnson as a hard-working, max-effort player who may stick more as a good fourth outfielder than as an everyday player.

[Guest]

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): What are you hearing about Brandon Guyer of the Cubs? Did the OF come close to the top 20? Is he considered a legit prospect? He put up very good offensive numbers - hit for average, showed some power and speed as well. What is his ceiling - everyday regular, or 4th outfielder?

 

 

Ian Gordon: Hi everyone! Sorry I'm late — just a few Internet issues to work through. As for Brandon Guyer, Michael, he was a guy mentioned often by managers around the SL. He's got a strong, athletic frame and a quick bat, and even though he occasionally gets himself out with some defensive swings at the dish, he definitely has a chance. He seems like he could turn into a solid contributer type, especially with his above-average defense in the corner OF spots.

 

Danny V (Boston): Hi Ian. Like yesterday's FSL list, the 2010 Southern League Top 20 seems to lack both the overall depth and the top-end quality of prospects that were features of a strong 2009 group. Would you call the 2010 list an uncharacteristically weak assembly, or just one that looks thin next to what was an unusually talented 2009 crop? Thanks for the chat!

 

 

Ian Gordon: That 2009 list is pretty strong, isn't it, Danny? That Jeremy Hellickson — the 2010 Minor League Player of the Year — was No. 9 on last year's list says a lot. Still, the Stantons and Pinedas of the world are pretty exciting players, and maybe we'd all feel a little better about this list had Starlin Castro, Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado all qualified.

 

Jon (Peoria): In the FSL list, Archer ranked ahead of Jackson. What caused that to be reversed in the SL rankings?

 

 

Ian Gordon: Ah, the subjective nature of lists, Jon. It's no exaggeration to say that those guys were thisclose in the minds of scouts, managers and BA staff. We went back and forth on those guys, but based on what our SL observers were telling us, Jackson just slipped by Archer. Think 8A and 8B, if you will. Archer's control issues (5 BB/9 at Tennessee) definitely didn't help his case, though.

 

Dan (Boston): Hi Ian. Thanks for the chat today. Which prospects were toughest to leave off, and why did they miss the cut? Anybody who didn't qualify, or showed steady enough improvement that they're someone to watch for next year's top 20?

 

 

Ian Gordon: Great question, Dan. Aside from the aforementioned non-qualifiers (Castro, Teheran, Delgado, etc.), there were a number of guys who were close. Here's a few who come to mind: Carolina's Kris Negron, who's fast and very good defensively but just okay with the stick; Huntsville's Amaury Rivas, who shows a hard, sinking fastball but who needs to develop his secondary pitches and show better command; Tennessee's Robinson Chirinos, who has a solid approach at the plate and good instincts behind it, but who is a bit long in the tooth (26 years old) for this list; Mississippi's Juan Abreu, who made some nice strides in the 'pen this year; and Mobile's Konrad Schmidt, who really impressed his manager, former big leaguer Rico Brogna, with his ability to maintain his batting average (.315) despite his free-swinging, aggressive ways.

[Guest]

9. Chris Archer, rhp, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 180. Drafted: HS—Clayton, N.C., '06 (5/Indians).

Since coming over as part of the three-player package for Mark DeRosa last December, Archer has established himself as Chicago's top pitching prospect.

Archer's fastball sits in the low to mid-90s, and he achieves average life and command from an over-the-top delivery. His slider lacks consistency at times, but it usually ranges from an average to a plus-plus pitch. His changeup also has its moments.

 

Archer is very athletic and has a fluid, repeatable delivery. Nevertheless, his control can get spotty and he struggled to pitch to contact at times with the Smokies. He has enough stuff to possibly become a closer if he can't add the polish to become a big league starter.

hmmm....

 

Most fastball/slider guys come from a 3/4 arm slot instead of over the top (most of those guys throw curves).

[toonsterwu]

archer being a guy who used to go to the curve more may explain the arm slot. His curve was considered a good one out of HS and in the Indians organization. Guess the Cubs shifted him to the slider, as they tend to do with a lot of our guys.