Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-26-10

[jersey cubs fan]

Samardizja is really putting together a solid season as a starter in AAA. His walks are on the high side but he doesn't give up many hits and his 1.27 WHIP is very respectable.

 

he doesn't give up many hits because he's been absurdly lucky. he has a .237 babip. besides a good pop-up rate, there's nothing in his peripherals that suggests he should have a super-low babip. his FIP is 4.34, which is a lot more indicative of how he's pitched this year than the ERA/WHIP he's currently sporting.

 

9 fly outs to 3 ground outs, 4 BB to 3 K, but only 3 ER in 5.2, does seem a bit lucky in this game.

[TruffleShuffle]

well a fly ball pitcher should have a little bit better BABIP since more fly balls turn into outs, but he should also give up more extra base hits. samardzija's only allowed 6 hr in 100 ip, which is lucky - can't really speak to his doubles/triples and how they relate to where they "should be."

 

when you neutralize his #'s for luck on minor league splits, he goes up to a 4.90 FIP, which seems wrong to me because it has him at a .347 babip (seems too high for a fly ball-leaning pitcher with good pop-up numbers and a not-outrageous LD% of 17.9). but yeah, he's not preventing hits because he's doing anything right.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why was I thinking he was supposed to be a ground ball pitcher?

[TruffleShuffle]

Why was I thinking he was supposed to be a ground ball pitcher?

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t451&t=p_pbp&pid=502188

 

that's a few years of stats from him. numbers kind of seem all over the place, but i guess on average he's probably pretty neutral. MiLB considers line outs to not be fly outs, so i think this tends to skew the numbers a bit GO-friendly.

[Guest]

Why was I thinking he was supposed to be a ground ball pitcher?

 

Because that was his rep when he was drafted and was in his first full season. He had decent groundball tendencies his first year but has since become a completely flyball pitcher.