Hendry NOT looking to rebuild Cubs

[Guest]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

[Eric Clipperton]

Soriano, Byrd, olivine/fuku- if you can dump fukudome and add a cheap platoon option top-end defender in CF to the of group, that could work? I'm not expecting much from colvin but you know he'll get every chance to improve. The outfield is fine just nothing great, Esp. at the price.

 

Are you saying the OF is cheap? They have more than $37m dedicated to next year's OF, if they dump Fukudome but pay a chunk of his salary and sign a cheap platoon guy they could go even higher. That's pretty expensive for a non special OF.

 

No, saying it's expensive- if it were cheap it'd be pretty solid but at that price it's def a weak spot. I worded the above poorly, sorry.

 

Beltran is kind of interesting now that i think about him. Mets are dumber than the cubs...maybe somehow trade z/fuk/+ for Beltran in a big contract swap? Our surplus solid starters make the now mediocre Z even more expendable. I'd throw in a solid chunk of cash for the end of his contract if needed...cubs payroll obligations are not quite as horrific in a few years (at least until they sign fielder for 6/150)

[Eric Clipperton]

What's a olivine?

 

Ha, it wears no. 21 iPad spellcheck is not liking Colvin I changed it at least three times in my first post yet olivine still showed up. No clue what it thinks I'm typing there. Olivines are mediocre yet celebrated, home runs but with no walks or contact ability, and a curious tendency to appear in the Leadoff Position even without much chance at reaching a .300 obp

Even though he's white and not particularly fast and therefore shouldn't be expected to fill a speedy but terrible leadoff hitter's role best exemplified by #1 Eternally in our hearts and on our outstretched middle fingers, Juan Pierre.

[pccubfan]

So is it your belief that this team is in worse shape than the 2006 team?

 

That's a tough call. The 2006 team probably had more god awful players, but they also had prime or near prime Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez plus some other useful players. They had a questionable pitching staff but a number of quality arms, some of which disappeared or changed roles. And of course they also had a nearly unprecedented ability to take on more payroll in that offseason. So the quality of the roster was probably overall a little worse, but with a much better position to add to the team.

 

I'm not talking about ability to add to the team. I'm talking on a pure talent level. When somebody says we need to add 2 top-line starters, a top tier 1B and good bullpen arms, all while nobody declines in order to be contender, that tells me they think this team is far worse off than '06.

 

Ok I have re-read my original post and I used a poor choice of expression when relating my thoughts. I should have stated that in order for the Cubs to be considered a pennant favorite they would need to add three top tier talents. I believe the Cubs could contend by adding Gonzalez and Lee, but I wouldn't see them as prohibitive favorites.

 

However, I didn't say anything about nobody declining. It should be expected that a number of Cubs will decline. I would expect at least two of Colvin, Soto, Byrd, Soriano, and Silva to decline.

[davearm2]

I'd like to see:

 

Ramirez opt out of his deal.

 

Zambrano and Fukudome dealt for Beltran, Castillo, and Perez.

 

For 2011, play DeWitt at 3B and Castillo/Fontenot/Baker at 2B, and let the young guys continue to develop.

 

Get all but Soriano and Dempster off the books after 2011. Then at that time, make trades and spend in free agency to create a new core, comprised of the young guys that look like they'll be good and 2-3 established, impact veteran adds.

 

If as part of that plan you add a guy like Cliff Lee a year early, that'd be fine. But the major rearranging comes after 2011.

[Guest]

I keep seeing all these posts where the Cubs somehow acquire Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason and I have to ask just what crazy bud are you all smoking that makes you believe the Cubs have the players or even want to give up the players for a one year deal of Adrian Gonzalez, or that the Padres will give up one of the best bargains in baseball for a bunch of Jeff Samardjiza's? It will probably take the best 3 or 4 players in the system, including Starlin Castro and possibly more. There is absolutely no incentive for the Padres to move him.

 

Besides the fact Adrian Gonzalez grew up in San Diego, is an incredible draw for both white and minority fans of San Diego, has helped the team maintain a winning record throughout this season as one of the only real names on the roster, he will make just 6m dollars in 2011 in the final year of his contract. Does someone actually believe the Padres won't pick up the club option they have on Adrian? Or do they think they need to dump him now for fear they won't get anything for him at the end of the season? I could see them moving him at the trade deadline if they are out of the race in 2011, but even then it's going to cost someone quite a bit of talent.

 

Adrian Gonzalez would definitely be a great fit for this team in 2011 and beyond. But, unless you are willing to cough up just about every good young player the Cubs have, I don't see a match. Do you see who has been playing SS for the Padres? Jerry Hairston and Everth Cabrera. Over at 2nd, they have David Eckstein. Who will be the first two guys the Padres will demand for Gonzalez? Castro and DeWitt. Go ahead and throw Brett and Jay in there as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't want Vitters thrown in there as well.

 

Unless you are willing to dump your entire future for Gonzalez, you'll need to hope he doesn't sign an extension with the Padres for 2012 or with whatever team the Padres trade him to at the deadline when they are sitting at the bottom of the standings next July.

 

6m for a difference making ballplayer is a rarity, and one that only adds to the Padres value of him. One of the best bargains in all of baseball in 2011.

 

So, what exactly are you sending to the Padres for the rights to Adrian Gonzalez for 2011 that the Padres will sign off on?

[SouthSideRyan]

*snipped part about pennant favorite, that's understood*

 

However, I didn't say anything about nobody declining. It should be expected that a number of Cubs will decline. I would expect at least two of Colvin, Soto, Byrd, Soriano, and Silva to decline.

 

 

Wasn't responding to you with regards to the declines. Lumafia was the one who mentioned that point.

[Guest]

If you're just going to play DeWitt at 3B and not add anyone substantial at 2B, why do you want to see Ramirez opt out?

 

I also don't really think that Z is so terrible relative to his contract that it's worth bogging down 3 roster spots with Mets garbage just so we don't pay him in 2012.

[SouthSideRyan]

Is this the part of the thread where BBB posts a bunch of paragraphs about stuff he doesn't know about?

[pccubfan]

I keep seeing all these posts where the Cubs somehow acquire Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason and I have to ask just what crazy bud are you all smoking that makes you believe the Cubs have the players or even want to give up the players for a one year deal of Adrian Gonzalez, or that the Padres will give up one of the best bargains in baseball for a bunch of Jeff Samardjiza's? It will probably take the best 3 or 4 players in the system, including Starlin Castro and possibly more. There is absolutely no incentive for the Padres to move him.

 

Besides the fact Adrian Gonzalez grew up in San Diego, is an incredible draw for both white and minority fans of San Diego, has helped the team maintain a winning record throughout this season as one of the only real names on the roster, he will make just 6m dollars in 2011 in the final year of his contract. Does someone actually believe the Padres won't pick up the club option they have on Adrian? Or do they think they need to dump him now for fear they won't get anything for him at the end of the season? I could see them moving him at the trade deadline if they are out of the race in 2011, but even then it's going to cost someone quite a bit of talent.

 

Adrian Gonzalez would definitely be a great fit for this team in 2011 and beyond. But, unless you are willing to cough up just about every good young player the Cubs have, I don't see a match. Do you see who has been playing SS for the Padres? Jerry Hairston and Everth Cabrera. Over at 2nd, they have David Eckstein. Who will be the first two guys the Padres will demand for Gonzalez? Castro and DeWitt. Go ahead and throw Brett and Jay in there as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't want Vitters thrown in there as well.

 

Unless you are willing to dump your entire future for Gonzalez, you'll need to hope he doesn't sign an extension with the Padres for 2012 or with whatever team the Padres trade him to at the deadline when they are sitting at the bottom of the standings next July.

 

6m for a difference making ballplayer is a rarity, and one that only adds to the Padres value of him. One of the best bargains in all of baseball in 2011.

 

So, what exactly are you sending to the Padres for the rights to Adrian Gonzalez for 2011 that the Padres will sign off on?

 

I can't believe the Pads would demand DeWitt but he could go. They could also be interested in Archer, Cashner, BJackson, Lee, Vitters, and maybe Wells. So DeWitt, Wells, Vitters and Archer/Cashner?

[Exile on Waveland]

Oh, and to respond to the part earlier about the Cubs needing Cliff Lee + Adrian Gonzalez + 2 more good players to contend.

 

The 2006 Cubs won 66 games, and added nobody close to Lee or Gonzalez's levels. They only won 85 games, which isn't enough pretty much any year, but it's not as dire as some people are trying to make it out to be.

 

I find it the height of cynicism to suggest the Cubs need Cliff Lee + Adrian Gonzalez + two equal players to contend. Frankly, I think that is close to delusional. This team is not that bad. They're also not in the AL East.

 

Of course, that's not to say I expect the Cubs to contend next year. I don't. But they are by no means four elite players from contending.

[davearm2]

If you're just going to play DeWitt at 3B and not add anyone substantial at 2B, why do you want to see Ramirez opt out?

 

I also don't really think that Z is so terrible relative to his contract that it's worth bogging down 3 roster spots with Mets garbage just so we don't pay him in 2012.

To save money, basically.

 

I'm writing off 2011 as a developmental year, and advocating an NBA-style strategy of acquiring expiring contracts. I figure to fit the Mets "garbage" on the payroll, they probably need Ramirez' $$$ off the books.

 

Mainly though, I just want to watch a different core group of guys. The window's shut on the Lee, Zambrano, Ramirez group. Let's move on as quickly as possible, even if it means bagging 2011, is my opinion.

[javy knows my name]

The Padres have a lot of incentive to move Gonzalez. There is no way they can keep him once he goes to free agency, and the longer they wait, the lower their return will be. There are only a few teams who can afford him, and while they're trading for a rental only, the amount of the looming extension will lessen the amount they have to give up initially (think Santana trade).

[davearm2]

I keep seeing all these posts where the Cubs somehow acquire Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason and I have to ask just what crazy bud are you all smoking that makes you believe the Cubs have the players or even want to give up the players for a one year deal of Adrian Gonzalez, or that the Padres will give up one of the best bargains in baseball for a bunch of Jeff Samardjiza's? It will probably take the best 3 or 4 players in the system, including Starlin Castro and possibly more. There is absolutely no incentive for the Padres to move him.

 

Besides the fact Adrian Gonzalez grew up in San Diego, is an incredible draw for both white and minority fans of San Diego, has helped the team maintain a winning record throughout this season as one of the only real names on the roster, he will make just 6m dollars in 2011 in the final year of his contract. Does someone actually believe the Padres won't pick up the club option they have on Adrian? Or do they think they need to dump him now for fear they won't get anything for him at the end of the season? I could see them moving him at the trade deadline if they are out of the race in 2011, but even then it's going to cost someone quite a bit of talent.

 

Adrian Gonzalez would definitely be a great fit for this team in 2011 and beyond. But, unless you are willing to cough up just about every good young player the Cubs have, I don't see a match. Do you see who has been playing SS for the Padres? Jerry Hairston and Everth Cabrera. Over at 2nd, they have David Eckstein. Who will be the first two guys the Padres will demand for Gonzalez? Castro and DeWitt. Go ahead and throw Brett and Jay in there as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't want Vitters thrown in there as well.

 

Unless you are willing to dump your entire future for Gonzalez, you'll need to hope he doesn't sign an extension with the Padres for 2012 or with whatever team the Padres trade him to at the deadline when they are sitting at the bottom of the standings next July.

 

6m for a difference making ballplayer is a rarity, and one that only adds to the Padres value of him. One of the best bargains in all of baseball in 2011.

 

So, what exactly are you sending to the Padres for the rights to Adrian Gonzalez for 2011 that the Padres will sign off on?

The Padres are going to have a very difficult time getting that sort of return for 1 year of any player.

 

Just off the top of my head, Matt Holliday and Mark Teixeira are two similar comps as far as impact position players that were recently traded with 1 year left before FA.

[Guest]

Is this the part of the thread where BBB posts a bunch of paragraphs about stuff he doesn't know about?

 

Awesome post. Keep them coming! I'm confident you gained a ton of new admirers for that work of art.

[Guest]

The Padres have a lot of incentive to move Gonzalez. There is no way they can keep him once he goes to free agency, and the longer they wait, the lower their return will be. There are only a few teams who can afford him, and while they're trading for a rental only, the amount of the looming extension will lessen the amount they have to give up initially (think Santana trade).

 

No, they don't have a lot of incentive. Why can't they afford him? They have a new ownership group in place that wasn't responsible for the cost cutting that was taking place a few years ago. The payroll for the Padres between now and 2008 was almost 40m in difference. They have another 8.5m coming off the books when they don't pick up the option for Chris Young. It's not inconceivable for the Padres to give Gonzalez a Joe Mauer type contract. They've managed to put a lot of butts in seats this year even though they were pretty much written off before the season ever started.

 

Whatever the offer, it will need to be better than 28 other teams that would absolutely love to get their hands on Adrian Gonzalez if the Padres do make him available this offseason. My guess is that they cannot afford to alienate their fanbase by trading off their best player after the breakthrough season they just had with all these young prospects getting all this major league experience. If they move him, it will most likely be at the deadline, not during this coming offseason.

[KingCubsFan]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

What market is this? I can't see Fukudome, Soriano and Byrd getting anything close to $37 million combined on the free agent market.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Padres have a lot of incentive to move Gonzalez. There is no way they can keep him once he goes to free agency, and the longer they wait, the lower their return will be. There are only a few teams who can afford him, and while they're trading for a rental only, the amount of the looming extension will lessen the amount they have to give up initially (think Santana trade).

 

No, they don't have a lot of incentive. Why can't they afford him? They have a new ownership group in place that wasn't responsible for the cost cutting that was taking place a few years ago. The payroll for the Padres between now and 2008 was almost 40m in difference. They have another 8.5m coming off the books when they don't pick up the option for Chris Young. It's not inconceivable for the Padres to give Gonzalez a Joe Mauer type contract. They've managed to put a lot of butts in seats this year even though they were pretty much written off before the season ever started.

 

Whatever the offer, it will need to be better than 28 other teams that would absolutely love to get their hands on Adrian Gonzalez if the Padres do make him available this offseason. My guess is that they cannot afford to alienate their fanbase by trading off their best player after the breakthrough season they just had with all these young prospects getting all this major league experience. If they move him, it will most likely be at the deadline, not during this coming offseason.

 

Are a lot of teams going to be offering 20 year old SS with an OPS of 800 in the majors + their starting 2B + their top 3 prospects?

 

The Padres would trade Gonzalez for Castro in a second

[Guest]

The Padres are going to have a very difficult time getting that sort of return for 1 year of any player.

 

Just off the top of my head, Matt Holliday and Mark Teixeira are two similar comps as far as impact position players that were recently traded with 1 year left before FA.

 

Teixeira was a deadline deal that landed Texas Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus and some cat named Beau Jones. That's just a half a season and Teixeira was making 9m that season instead of 6m. That was a pretty significant haul for a half season of Teixeira. Imagine a full season for a cheaper and potentially better player once you get him out of the worst hitting park in the majors and on a team with other quality bats surrounding him.

 

Matt Holliday signed an extension with Colorado before he was traded to Oakland, so he doesn't fit into this category.

[Guest]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

What market is this? I can't see Fukudome, Soriano and Byrd getting anything close to $37 million combined on the free agent market.

 

The Cubs have gotten about 10 WAR so far this season from their outfield, Soriano, Fukudome, Byrd, and Colvin. Nady's there too but he's a small negative so it's irrelevant. The market value of a win has been a little over 4 million, so when you figure how much they add the remaining 1/4 of the season, it probably balances out the regression for next year.

 

The main moral of the story here is that Soriano has been better than people give him credit for, and Byrd has been awesome this year.

[Guest]

Are a lot of teams going to be offering 20 year old SS with an OPS of 800 in the majors + their starting 2B + their top 3 prospects?

 

The Padres would trade Gonzalez for Castro in a second

 

I'm not sure what teams will be willing to offer, but whatever it is during this offseason will probably not be enough to make San Diego want to move him. The trade deadline when they are out of the playoff picture is a whole different story, however.

[SouthSideRyan]

Matt Holliday signed an extension with Colorado before he was traded to Oakland, so he doesn't fit into this category.

 

No he didn't. And wouldn't that make him more valuable?

[Guest]

Matt Holliday signed an extension with Colorado before he was traded to Oakland, so he doesn't fit into this category.

 

No he didn't. And wouldn't that make him more valuable?

 

So who doesn't know what they are talking about?

 

From Cots:

 

Matt Holliday

 

2 years/$23M (2008-09)

signed extension with Colorado 1/18/08 (avoided arbitration)

08:$9.5M, 09:$13.5M

award bonuses: $25,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove; $50,000 for Silver Slugger; $75,000 for LCS MVP; $0.1M each for MVP, WS MVP

acquired by Oakland in trade from Colorado 11/12/08

acquired by St. Louis in trade from Oakland 7/24/09 (A's to pay $1.5M of approximately $5.385M remaining of 2009 salary)

 

And to answer your question, no it doesn't make him more valuable, as he was getting 13.5m in the second and final year of his 2 year extension. Gonzalez will be making in 2011 what the Cubs were paying Neifi Perez per season a few forgettable seasons ago.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

So who doesn't know what they are talking about?

 

 

Probably the guy who considers Matt Holliday on a 1 year deal different than Adrian Gonzalez on a 1 year deal. I have no idea what the Rockies extending Holliday in January has to do with the A's trading for him in November.

 

And the Cubs never paid Neifi 6M a year

[Guest]

 

So who doesn't know what they are talking about?

 

 

Probably the guy who considers an extension signed in January to be right before a trade made in November.

 

And the Cubs never paid Neifi 6M a year

Show me where I said "right before". I said "before". He was making more than double what Gonzalez was making for the final year of his deal, which doesn't qualify him for this discussion. Even the small market teams can get in on the bidding for Gonzalez at 6m, and each that considers going after him will be doing so with the intention of signing him to a long term deal, more than likely.