Experts Pick The First Round

[THISisTHEyear09]

1) Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada, C/RF

Frame:

Thick, strong and likely to get a little bigger. Very strong in the wrists and core. Will need to continually work on flexibility and agility to remain in high-skill position; moves well enough now, though occasionally stiff in actions.

 

Swing:

Harper has a high-maintenance swing geared heavily towards power. He utilizes a toe-tap timing mechanism moving out of a slightly open stance and an ankle twist that is likely there to help keep him closed entering his stride. He loads very well in his hands, creating some length with plenty of bat speed to make-up for it -- the result is incredible leverage. He shows natural lift, explosive acceleration in the bat head and a clean high finish. He has also improved greatly in keeping his head quiet, which is no easy feet considering the force involved in his swing. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that these swing mechanics require a fair amount of work to maintain, and it is a testament to either coachability or work ethic (perhaps both) that he has been able to stay clean throughout his CSN season -- a season wherein he's competing with wood against some talented arms two to four years his senior. Critics doubt his future ability to hit for average, but his bat speed and ability to center are so advanced that there is a solid chance for a plus hit tool to go along with the true "80" power.

 

Defense:

Behind the plate, Harper is a mixed bag, but the ceiling is a solid average defensive catcher with plus catch-and-throw skills. His arm action and release are both long, but the pure arm strength still allows him to snap off sub-1.9 pop times (as low as 1.74) with good accuracy. He moves pretty well for a kid his size, but collapses his glove side some, which shifts his weight left and can prevent him from adequately covering the right side of the plate. This can lead to "stabbing" on pitches to his right and can also negatively affect his ability to block in the dirt to the right. With reps, pro instruction and plyo/agility training, he should be able to stick as a catcher, with enough athleticism and feel right now to project to average down the line. However, Harper is athletic enough to profile at third base and, at worst, in right field -- with right field likely being the quickest route for his bat to The Bigs and third base somewhere in the middle between C and COF.

Notes:

Harper is easily the top talent in the draft and has met and exceeded everyone's lofty expectations this spring with the College of Southern Nevada. A catcher with prodigious power, Harper has already shattered the team and league single-season homerun records (as of May 15 sitting at 23 on the season), all while slashing a double-take-inducing .415/.504/.891. The biggest question mark with Harper is his future defensive position, though were he to shift off of catcher he could conceivably profiles as an above-average defensive third baseman or a right fielder with one of the better arms in the game. No doubt in part due to the heavy hype surrounding the young star, early season grumbles in the media attempted to pin the "character issues" label to Harper. All indications from teammates, coaches and his production line indicate that where it matters (on the field, in the gym and in the locker room) Harper is respectful and professional. He has all the raw tools to be among the best in the game; time will tell if he can continue this dizzying whirlwind of success and, more importantly, how quickly he can adjust to the inevitable failures ahead. I like his chances.

 

Projected Position: C

Suggested Draft Slot: #1 Overall

 

 

2) Pittsburgh Pirates: Manny Machado, Brito HS, SS

Frame:

Machado has a long and lanky build that bears a physical resemblance to Astros 2008 first-round pick Jiovanni Mier. Like Mier, Machado is athletic and graceful, giving him a chance to stay at shortstop as he adds strength and bulk.

 

Swing:

Machado has a natural aptitude for hitting, employing an open stance and a controlled weight shift. He begins his swing with a wrap, but has the bat speed, balance through contact and level swing path to consistently produce line drives to all fields. He could hit for above-average power once he fills out his lean frame.

 

Defense:

Machado is a solid bet to remain at his position in pro ball because of his fluid actions and sure glove. An average runner who should add weight, Machado projects to have just average range at shortstop, but his long legs, smooth footwork and advanced defensive instincts help him compensate for a lack of lateral quickness. Although he will occasionally field the ball too deeply, he has a strong throwing arm that would play at either position on the left side of the infield should a move to third base be required.

Notes:

Machado has the tool set to become an offensive-minded shortstop. Even if he adds too much bulk to field his position adequately, he should hit enough to justify a move to third base, where his soft hands and strong throwing arm would make him a well above-average defender. Machado’s bat-to-ball ability and patience at the plate should allow him to hit for the average and power that major-league managers would expect out of their two-hole hitter.

 

Projected Position: SS

Suggested Draft Slot: Early-Mid 1st Round

 

 

 

3) Baltimore Orioles: Jameson Taillon, The Woodlands, RHP

 

Frame:

Close to maxed-out, but already big league body. Sturdy, workhorse build. Good athleticism and well above-average body control. Moves well and shows excellent awareness of his actions.

 

Motion:

Taillon has a simple side step into his motion with little movement in his upper-body. He has an exaggerated closed leg kick (closed all the way to the LF side of the 3B bag), adding some deception and making it difficult for the hitter to pick-up the ball out of his low hand break. He moves to a drop-and-drive approach to the plate as he begins to rotate his body back towards home. Explosive in his stride, he has a sizeable step, giving his arm plenty of time to get into the cocked position as he plants. He gets good hip/shoulder separation, creating good rotation through his core and helping to generate his plus velocity. He drives directly towards home consistently, fully utilizing all the momentum he builds-up through his kick and stride. His arm comes from a 3/4 slot and is easy, coming across his body. His follow-through could be cleaned-up some, falling off towards first (though he's generally under control). Most impressive is his body control and the repeatability of his mechanics -- a rarity in a high schooler with such a big body. One other "knock" is that Taillon can get a little stiff (some would call it herky-jerky) in his actions, but he repeats well and there aren't big flags on the arm action outside of flashing the ball some (which can be cleaned-up).

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Generally sitting 93-95 mph with good life, touching 96 (reports have him as high as 98 mph this spring). Taillon can pound the zone with his fastball and it's good enough to simply throw by hitters at this point. He'll need to improve his command in the zone, but it's already a plus pitch that could be plus-plus down the line.

 

Curveball - Taillon's curve is an impressive power breaking ball with 2-plane action and plus late bite. Already excellent depth, the pitch could be a plus to plus-plus offering as he improves his feel and command. Potential strikeout pitch as both swing-and-miss and in the zone. Through the summer/fall, he sat 77-81 mph with the pitch, which is what I've seen from reports this spring, as well.

 

Slider - Taillon's wipeout slider has good tilt and comes out of the same slot as his fastball. Low- to mid-80s on the gun (82-84 mph) and could be another swing-and-miss offering at the pro level. Doesn't command pitch yet.

 

Change-up - Not needed much at this point, but shows feel for the pitch. Good arm speed. Could be yet another average to above-average offering depending on the work put in. Good velo separation from fastball (around 10 mph), but can throw too hard.

Notes:

Taillon has been nothing short of incredible each time I've seen him (on film and in person), and I do not pass that compliment out lightly. As mentioned above, his body control really stands out for such a big-body. There's an excellent combination here of well above-average pure stuff, an ideal Major League pitcher's body, athleticism and poise. In some ways, this past summer made things more difficult on Taillon, as he set the bar very high for the spring season and opened himself up to an extra level of criticism reserved for those picks under consideration for top 3 overall selection. At the same time, I never expected to enter the 2010 season with anyone but Bryce Harper atop my big board -- while Harper has retained his crown, Taillon has given everyone reason to examine that slot more closely. He has all the makings of a potential front-end starter, with price tag and his Rice commitment the only potential hurdles to top 5 overall selection.

 

Projected Position: Mid-rotation to Front-end Starter

Suggested Draft Slot: Top 10 Overall

 

4) Kansas City Royals: Drew Pomeranz, Ole Miss, LHP

Frame:

Big, workhorse frame. Long, powerful legs, wide hips and a broad upper-body. No projection left, but pro body right now. Reasonably athletic; moves surprisingly well off of mound to field and to cover.

 

Motion:

Pomeranz utilizes a fairly simplistic motion with down-up-down hand action leading to his break (which serves as a timing mechanism to help keep him hitting his check points as he moves into his leg kick and hand separation). His arm action is long on the back side, leading to some inconsistencies in his timing and release, which in turn can cause him to miss his spots, particularly with his big-breaking curveball. In the past, control has been a larger issue, but this year he has done a much better job of hitting his release and generally keeping the ball around the strike zone, even if he isn't hitting his particular spots. Pomeranz throws out of a high-3/4 slot with an easy arm action. His high release helps to put the ball on a tough plane and makes squaring difficult for the opposing hitters. He can be a little too deliberate from the stretch and puts some pressure on his catcher with times to home generally ranging from 1.47 to 1.65.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Sits 88-92 mph and Pomeranz can maintain velocity into the 7th and 8th inning. Command of pitch is below-average, but he can throw to general quadrants and can pound the lower half when he is on. Hides ball fairly well, helping velocity to play-up some.

 

Curveball - Pomeranz's breaking ball is a big 12-6 curve thrown with a spike grip. Sits 77-79 mph. He gets good bite and plus depth, and it is a plus pitch now when on. As he continues to develop, it should be a consistent plus. Doesn't yet maintain command from start-to-start. Shows understanding of how to set-up and bury the pitch.

 

Change-up - Straight change thrown with decent arm speed out of the same slot as his fastball. He can throw too hard, and runs the offering anywhere from 79 mph up to 85. Third best pitch by a fair amount right now, but he shows some feel for it and could develop it into an average offering down the line.

Notes:

Pomeranz leaves absolutely nothing to the imagination, but with his current stuff and profile he doesn't have to. A lefty with good velocity, a plus breaking ball and big workhorse build, all with an easy arm action and solid mechanics is a winning combination no matter how you slice it. The mechanical nits discussed above could prevent him from ever being more than an average command guy and, while his fastball/curve combo baffles collegiate hitters, he'll need to be a bit more precise to show consistent success at the next level. He started off the year in strong fashion from a BB/9 standpoint (an area that I marked as a potential concern due to his long arm action and potential difficulties repeating his release). However, the big lefty has regressed some as the season has worn on, going from 1.59 BB/9 in his first two starts to 3.16 BB/9 in March and 5.32 BB/9 in April. He continues to miss bats, but his ceiling is ultimately limited by his command and above-average, but shy of elite, arsenal. His erratic command and high strikeout totals also tend to lead to high pitch counts and could make it difficult for him to regularly work deep into games against more advanced hitters, though his build is such that he stands a good chance of enduring the long pro season provided he keeps-up with his conditioning. Pomeranz represents a fairly safe first round option in a draft filled with high school power arms and limited surefire offense. He should move quickly and provide good value as an inning-eating #3 starter with a shot at #2 upside.

 

Projected Position: Mid-rotation Starter

Suggested Draft Slot: Early 1st Round

 

5) Cleveland Indians: Christian Colon, Cal State Fullerton, SS/2B

Frame:

Colon is a bit undersized, eyeballing it he looks slightly shorter than his listed 6'0", but every bit of his listed 185. There's some room to add strength, though mostly by firming-up his physique some, and he's athletic enough that it shouldn't restrict his movements too greatly. He has plus body control and excellent agility, contributing to his plus defensive tool. If he slows at all, it may force a move to second base.

 

Swing:

Colon begins with an open stance, using a small stride to get his momentum moving directly towards the ball. He keeps a short path to the ball with the very slightest of loops in his hands as he begins his swing. Colon shows excellent balance through contact and rotates his core well with a strong front leg. He finishes under control and is quick out of the box. This spring he has whipped the bat head a little better, and is producing some pop (though it is unclear if that will translate to wood against better pitching).

 

Defense:

Colon shows plus hands and an average to above-average arm at shortstop, making the routine and spectacular look equally effortless. He shows excellent footwork and sets-up well on his throws and pivots. He's comfortable around the bag and on both sides of the double play. His range and routes are solid and he appears to be a decent bet to stick at short, long term. The largest feather in his cap is his understanding of the position -- he knows what he can and cannot do, and plays comfortable and confident from the hole, up-the-middle and charging. His agility would play well at second base, as well.

Notes:

Colon is a plus defender with solid arm strength and projects to stick at the six-spot as a pro. That alone would get him plenty of attention as a draft-eligible shortstop. Adding to his value is a contact oriented stroke that could produce a notch above-average hit tool and gap-to-gap pop with perhaps high-single to low-double-digit homerun power. Always a solid defender, he took a nice step forward in 2009 at Fullerton, impressing at the plate. He posted a .357/.442/.529 line and a 1:1 SO:BB ratio while batting at the top of the order, solidifying himself as the lead-off hitter by the end of the season. He has spent 2010 in the same role, and after a slow start (primarily due to his injury-related lay-off over the winter -- see updates below). He has worked his slash line up to a solid .335/.441/.623, and has continued his elite strikezone command with 26 BB to just 10 SO in almost 190 PA. Colon has a high floor with some of the best plate discipline and hitting approaches in the class. He should be one of the first college bats selected and is a good bet to be off the board by the middle of the 1st Round.

 

Projected Position: SS

Suggested Draft Slot: Early- to Mid-1st Round

 

 

 

6) Arizona Diamondbacks: Deck McGuire, Georgia Tech, RHP

 

7) New York Mets: Yasmani Grandal, Miami, C

Frame:

Grandal has a large, lean, muscular frame. Close to filled-out, he moves reasonably well for his size and should not have to worry about a position switch due to further growth. He also shows solid flexibility and athleticism.

 

Swing:

Grandal sets-up and loads well, with his hands high and in good position to strike the quadrants. He gets good extension, though it comes a little early at times and with a longish swing. Though the Miami backstop shows big raw power both pre- and in-game, he can struggle with pitch-ID, showing some trouble with off-speed stuff and getting well out in front. He has a good understanding of the strike zone but has pressed a little this summer, uncharacteristically expanding the zone and failing to make consistent contact.

 

Defense:

Grandal moves well behind the plate and is an adequate receiver. He shows solid footwork but could stand to clean-up his catch-and-throw skills a bit, gunning down just over 20% of would-be-basestealers last spring. With average arm strength and accuracy a tick below, I have his pop times hovering around 2.12. Like most amateur catchers, he'll need to improve on his game calling as a pro.

 

 

8) Houston Astros: AJ Cole, Oviedo HS, RHP

Frame:

Big, lean build with long arms and legs. Plenty of room in shoulders through core/hips. Could add upwards of thirty pounds. Good athletic motions and body control. Excellent flexibility and reach.

 

Motion:

Cole has a nice, easy motion from short step-in to easy follow-through. He utilizes a high and tight leg kick, consistently balancing well over the rubber and getting the most out of the momentum he builds up to that point in his motion. He drives directly towards home and gets excellent extension through his release. Solid hip/shoulder separation and easy arm action through follow-through, with a soft and controlled step towards first base. Cole has a long arm action, but quick enough arm speed to keep a good tempo as he rotates through. He has started to clean-up the arm wrap in the back, but still regularly gets the ball out early and shows it to the hitter as he brings the ball up into throwing position. His motion is very easy and very repeatable, aided by his solid body control and flexibility. Great projection in frame and stuff.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Cole was low-90s for me with his fastball, touching 94 mph up in the zone without losing life. Reports from the summer had him up as high as 96-98 mph, depending on the report. Whether or not he's consistently there now, he projects to mid- to upper-90s velocity as he fills-in. He commands the pitch well to both sides of the plate.

 

Curveball - Cole throws an upper-70s curve with tight spin and hard downer bite when he stays on top of the pitch. He hits the same arm slot with his curve and fastball, and throws the breaker with good arm speed. When on, he can hit his zones with the pitch. With more consistency, it should be a plus Major League offering.

 

Change-up - I haven't seen much of the change-up, but the basics are there for it to be an average or better pitch already. He flashes good arm speed but is inconsistent and doesn't yet throw the pitch with the same control as his curve and fastball. He's generally in the mid-70s with the offering.

 

Slider - I have seen reports of a slider and video from 2008 that shows a tight slider-like pitch, but haven't seen it in 2009.

Notes:

Cole is an excellent pitcher right now, but the bulk of my interest is in the projection that's still there in his stuff and in his frame. His motion and arm action are so easy that he is a good candidate to continue to improve both his control and his command, and it's easy to picture his fastball consistently in the 95-97 range and touching even higher when all is said and done. There isn't much to nitpick, but my guess is teams might vary in their valuation at least in part due to how much they like the potential in his curve. It gets excellent spin and hard bite, but the depth isn't there to make it the same monster offering you see with someone like Taillon. Still, it has the potential to be a plus pitch down the line based on the bite and control, which should be more than enough when added to a potential plus-plus fastball and a change-up that could be anywhere from average to plus. His repeatable mechanics, athletic actions and flexibility are all pluses that should aid him in making the small tweaks at the pro level that will move him from "potential" to "production".

 

Projected Position: Mid-rotation Starter

Suggested Draft Slot: Top 10 Overall

 

9) San Diego Padres: Karsten Whitson, Chipley HS, RHP

Frame:

Whitson has a power build with room to add strength as he continues to mature -- eyeballing it I'd say fifteen to twenty pounds. He is a solid athlete with clean actions and moves well off of the mound. Good body control and generally good repeatability.

 

Motion:

Whitson generates good velocity with a strong drive towards home and good hip/shoulder separation. He balances well over the rubber but can get into stints where he drifts towards home before reaching his balance point, most often when throwing out of the stretch. His arm action is relatively clean, though he finds some recoil as a result of his hard plant. His left leg lands bent but straightens almost instantly after contact, causing his momentum to swing around the leg rather than continue directly towards home. He also can stride a little too much towards the righty batter's box, which adds to the right-to-left momentum. This is not in-and-of-itself a large issue, though it has the potential to limit his control and certainly his command as continues to develop. He comes out of a high 3/4 slot and produces a tough angle for hitters to square on.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Whitson's fastball is a low-90s offering that can consistently get up to the 94-95 mph zone. He produces some solid boring action and should have the ability down the line to produce groundballs as well as swings-and-misses. There's also potentially more velo in there, be it through some increased strength or clean-up in his stride/plant to get a little more momentum directly towards home. Control is the only factor preventing me from grading it a true plus offering right now, but the velocity and movement are there.

 

Slider - Whitson's low-80s power slider can be a nasty pitch when he's on, potentially among the best in the draft class, giving him the ability to freeze hitters as well as induce ugly cuts. There is good, hard bite as well as excellent depth, giving it plus potential when paired with the velocity. As with his fastball, the biggest obstacle to developing the pitch further is improving his control and command, though reports this spring indicate he is wielding the pitch with a high level of comfort and improved consistency.

 

Change-up - Whitson's off-speed pitch is a change-up with some drop, generally sitting in the low-80s. He can tip the pitch via some arm deceleration, but he shows enough feel for the offering to project as an average or above pitch down the line. He hits the same arm slot as his fastball, which aides in the deception of the pitch.

 

Notes:

I started out behind the plate during Whitson's start in Jupiter, FL during his WWBA National Championship outing for East Cobb Baseball, moving to the third base side to get another look at his mechanics. Upon arrival, I nestled between some golf carts occupied by ML scouts and was treated to a chorus of compliments directed at Whitson -- everything from his strength to his frame to his mechanics. This very tiny anecdote simply illustrates that while I point to some mechanical issues above, as well as concerns as to future control and command, these aren't the types of issues that will scare away Major League organizations -- or at least not a pair of AL organizations. Whitson has a special arm and a good feel for three pitches at an early stage in his development. Some tweaks could improve his effectiveness in the future, but as is he's easily one of the top few arms in the prep class, and arguably one of the top five arms in the entire draft class. He maintains his velocity and stuff through multiple innings, and could have three above-average to plus offerings once fully developed.

 

Projected Position: Mid-rotation to Front-end Starter

Suggested Draft Slot: First-half of 1st Round

 

10) Oakland As: Bryce Brentz, Middle Tennessee State, OF

Frame:

Strong, lean, athletic build with room to comfortably add 10-15 pounds. Clean actions in the field and good body control.

 

Swing:

Brentz keeps a short path to the ball, relying on excellent bat speed and good hands to make consistent hard contact. The ball jumps off of his bat and he gets good extension and loft. As he continues to improve his understanding of the strike zone, he'll become an even more dangerous hitter (impressive considering his success in '09 and through the first half of the summer).

 

Defense:

Brentz has an ideal skill set for right field. He moves well enough to cover ground in a corner, and his plus arm easily plays on throws to third (he notched a solid 21 assists in 2009). His foot speed is solid, though not enough to bail him out of poor routes. Brentz looks to be a solid average defender in right, with a chance to be above-average as he improves his first step and reads.

 

Motion:

Off the mound, Brentz has a quick, short arm action paired with drop and drive mechanics. Brentz gets solid hip/shoulder separation, and does a good job of getting out over his plant leg. He throws with some effort and falls off to the first base side in his follow-through. Were he to remain a pitcher as a pro, he looks to profile best as a reliever, as his stuff and mechanics would play best in shorter stints.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - I clocked Brentz primarily in the 89-90 mph range. His fastball gets on the hitter quick, due to his arm action, and with solid arm-side run. He commands the pitch reasonably well.

 

Slider - Brentz's slider clocked-in primarily between 78-82 mph with inconsistent bite. The pitch projects to an average Major League offering with improved consistency and command.

 

Change-up - Brentz throws his change-up with decent arm speed and gets good fade on the pitch. He sat 79-81 mph with the pitch most effective when he worked down and to his arm side (in on righties and away from lefties).

 

11) Toronto Blue Jays: Chris Sale, Florida Gulf Coast, LHP

 

12) Cincinnati Reds: Michael Choice, UT-Arlington, OF

Frame:

Thick, sturdy build on wide frame. Thick trunk. Close to filled, can perhaps add some strength as he finishes maturing but no huge "spurt" expected. Moves well for size; corner outfield range.

 

Swing:

Choice's game is power, and he resembles a smaller version of Pedro Alvarez circa-2008 in stance and swing, though without as severe a bat wrap. He generates his power through a couple of check-points in his mechanics, in addition to his above-average bat speed and high-effort cuts. First, as he loads, Choice utilizes a toe-tap mechanism to close his front-side as he moves from a slightly open stance to load. Next, he gives himself additional leverage by adding space between his hands and body exiting his load and entering his stride. His swing is max-effort, and he whips the bat head through the zone with authority. All of this power comes at the expense of some bat control (though his hands are solid) and some length (which opens-up holes, particularly up/in against better velocity). The result is a plus power tool, but a fair chance he won't hit for a particularly high average once he runs into more advanced pitching. He also has a proclivity to expand the zone, further exasperating his contact issues.

 

Defense:

Though he holds down center field for Texas-Arlington, Choice is a corner outfielder as a pro. He moves fairly well for someone his size and should have no trouble covering the requisite ground from gap to pole. His arm is above-average and could be enough to play in right. Choice is a solid athlete, but his actions aren't always the cleanest and his routes and reads are just "okay". The fact that he has held his own in center is a positive note, and there is no reason to think he will not blossom into at least an average corner defender, long term.

 

13) Chicago White Sox: Zack Cox, Arkansas, 3B

Frame:

Thick build, even shoulders through waist. Core strength. Shows some athleticism and flexibility. Good fluidity in actions -- more than expected from frame/body. Good strength, can improve some as he continues to mature, physically, and tighten physique. Average speed, clocked multiple times 4.22 to 4.29 home-to-first.

 

Swing:

Towards the end of 2009 Cox showed some power potential with loft in his swing, but an overly-aggressive approach. He tended to open-up early, limiting his power to primarily pull side and neutralizing his effectiveness from the middle-out. He also used his stride to create further seperation between his hands and core to increase leverage, but at the expense of a longer swing. Fast forward twelve months and the difference is startling. At the plate, Cox has one of the best front sides in the class, keeping closed and tight, with his chin clean shoulder-to-shoulder from load through contact. His head and hands are quiet through load and stride and he handles the barrel very well. Another change from last year, his load is more consistent with his hands in an optimal position to strike to the quadrants while keeping a short path to the ball, and his hands stay tied to his core during the stride (rather than locked in a fixed spot in the air, which adds length through the stride). Armed with a noticeably shorter swing, he also has worked to get his bat plane on-line with the pitch, keeping the barrel in the hit plane for an extended period of time. He gets good extension through the ball with a clean, high finish. The raw power is still there through bat speed and core strength, and while some may note Cox will have to choose between power (his more lofted swing) and a high average (his "match plane" approach) there is a fine chance he grows into more homerun production as he continues to tweak his approach. Reps and pro instruction should help.

 

Defense:

Cox's defense at third base is solid and he is equipped with plenty of arm for the left side. He shows clean footwork and sets himself up well on his throws, adding accuracy to his plus arm grade. Cox handles the position well, showing a good understanding of his defensive game and capabilities, and projects as a steady defender at the pro ranks. He can be uncertain at times when charging, sacrificing some aggression and therefor "steps", but he should improve with experience. Cox has also logged time at second base this year, including April 24th at Florida. His actions are raw there, but there's something to work with and he made all the plays required of him (including balls to each side). His footwork is serviceable, but may be lacking (along with his range) for a middle-infield position at the next level.

Notes:

Cox is the best college bat in the 2010 class by a fair amount, showing clean mechanics, an advanced approach and pole-to-pole versatility. Through just over 230 PA in 2010, Cox is slashing .456/.534/.641 and putting around 11 ABs between each strikeout. He has shown good pitch recognition (particularly when facing a limited repertoire) and an ability to let the ball travel and produce hard contact where the ball is pitched. Critics will point to power totals on the light side for a corner bat, but there is potential for him to continue to grow into homerun pop (perhaps above-average), given his plus hands, good bat speed and the raw skill set to build-up above-average selective aggression. In a class light on college bats, Cox stands out and could be the first 4-year bat off the board -- perhaps as high as the first 5 picks and almost certainly in the first 15.

 

Projected Position: 3B

Suggested Draft Slot: Mid 1st Round

 

 

14) Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Sale, Bishop Blanchett HS, OF

Frame:

Very strong, thick build. Even frame shoulders through waist; big trunk and torso. Average athleticism. Solid flexibility for build/muscle mass, but actions can be a little stiff. Average to tick above-average footspeed, though future speed may be limited depending on future training focus (size vs. agility) and conclusion of physical maturation.

 

Swing:

Sale shows good bat speed and a compact stroke, keeping short to and long through the ball. He utilizes some loft in his follow-through add comes down through contact with plus force, producing heavy backspin and carry. There is a danger that he will get stiff in his upper-half if he adds much more muscle mass, but his mechanics are refined, and he squares-up with good consistency off the strength of his bat speed and short path. His load puts his hands in excellent position to strike and his weight comfortably to his back leg, transferring well through an abbreviated stride (more of a foot drop). He leaks a very little bit in his hips, but nowhere near enough to be a concern. His approach is highly-advanced for a high school bat and both the hit and power tools project well.

 

Defense:

Sale logged innings in the outfield through the showcase circuit and at third base with Bishop Blanchet, but his future is decidedly at an outfield corner as a pro. His actions can be a little choppy, but he moves well enough. Footspeed is adequate for a corner and he shows enough feel to project to an average defender. His raw arm strength is solid, but he lacks carry and accuracy on his throws, likely in large part due to his arm action. His arm circle is entirely to small for an outfielder and he does a poor job of building momentum with any fluidity leading up to his release, instead short-arming from his ear. In short, he throws like an infielder in the outfield. This is something that can probably be cleaned-up and it will need to be a focus. He is strong enough and athletic enough, with enough raw arm strength, to ultimately handle right field, but it is highly unlikely he will have the carry and accuracy over 250-300 feet that he'd need for the nine-spot without smoothing-out and refining his arm action. Time will tell.

 

15) Texas Rangers: Brandon Workman, Texas, RHP

Frame:

Big body, well put together. Strong and durable build, particularly strong in lower-half. Close to filled, but some room left in upper-body. Final package might be another 10-15 pounds away. Body control can be an issue (see mechanics); moves "okay" around the mound for a big body.

 

Motion:

Workman has a fairly simplistic motion from start to finish, running into trouble primarily due to some inconsistencies in repeating mechanics. He uses an easy step-in with an average leg kick to start his momentum. He centers well over the rubber and gets good drive and extension towards home, getting out over his front leg consistently. At times he can get a little "bouncy" coming out of the apex of his kick, leading to inconsistent strides and derivatively an inconsistent tempo and release. At his best, he is striding slightly towards the righty batter's box and coming across his body some out of a 3/4 arm slot, giving him a tough angle to pair with what can be good downhill plane. On occasion he'll over-stride to the arm-side, leaving him little room inside against righties and forcing balls to the middle-out. Workman's arm is quick and relatively clean and easy, in part due to an affirmative choice to ease his velocity to gain some movement and command (in prior years he found himself reaching back and over-throwing, leading to a slightly faster fastball that was much straighter and less precise). His biggest hurdle will be finding a way to improve his body control and find more consistency throughout his motion -- though there is a chance he simply will not be a strong command arm, instead relying more on the strength of his stuff (which is above-average on the whole).

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Generally works 91-93 mph but has clocked up to 94 on multiple occasions this spring. Workman gets a slight bump for maintaining his velocity late and for showing an understanding of when to throttle up and down according to competition in order to reserve energy. Gets some armside life and at it's best is an effective downhill pitch to both sides of the plates. Will elevate but most effect throwing to strikezone floor.

 

Curveball - Workman's curve is a hard 12/6 downer that can flash power bite and big depth. The mechanical inconsistencies mentioned above can lead to bouts of wildness with the offering, but he generally utilizes it well as a freeze pitch and as a bury pitch. He can fall in love with it at times, particularly when he isn't hitting spots with his fastball. At the pro level he may need to substitute some change-ups for some of the curves in order to relieve some stress and give a different look. Velocity is generally upper-80s (77-78 mph). Quasi-crossfire delivery gives curve a very difficult angle at its best.

 

Change-up - Workman doesn't rely heavily on his change, but the pitch flashes some promise. Straight change with some drop, occasionally coming out of a higher arm slot than the fastball. Average velo delta around 8-11 mph.

 

Slider - Workman's favorite breaking ball is his curve, but he'll mix in a slider on occasion, as well. It is a nice "show me" pitch that can flash some tilt and has good late bite when snapped-off correctly. Generally low-80s (80-82 mph).

Notes:

Workman has been a steady force in 2010, following a statistically pedestrian summer in the Cape. Through twelve starts this year, Workman has done everything you could ask for, missing bats, limiting walks and homeruns, and going deep into games while maintaining his velocity and effectiveness. As is often the case with advanced college arms, the quality of Workman's pure stuff can sometimes shield an area of concern, which at this point is primarily his command -- an extension of his inability to consistently repeat his mechanics and find the "sweat spot" in his release. His low-90s fastball and power curve may flummox hitters at this level, but he'll need to be more precise with each in order to find the same level of success at the high-Minor and Major League level. Workman will also need to rely less on his curve, which should come naturally once he focuses on working-in his change-up and slider with more regularity. His body control is not elite, and it's unlikely Workman is ever a surgeon on the hill. But if he can improve the repeatability of his motion even moderately, he should be able to find mid-rotation success at the highest levels, with an outside shot at #2 production. He has the build and approach to eat innings at an above-average rate, which will not go unnoticed when teams line him up on their boards come June.

 

Projected Position: Mid-rotation to Front-end Starter

Suggested Draft Slot: Early- to Mid-1st Round

 

16) Chicago Cubs: Justin O'Conner, Cowan HS, C/SS/RHP

Frame:

O’Conner stands out physically with a mature, strong build, particularly in his upper-body. Shows smooth actions in the field; good athleticism and body control. Quick twitch actions and athleticism mean he can likely afford to add some muscle without being forced off of shortstop, though he probably will start catching, which he picked up this fall. His actions/frame play all around the diamond.

 

Swing:

Hitting out of a slightly open stance, O’Conner has relaxed hands at the plate that rest on top of his shoulder, with his elbow up and parallel with the ground. He has a very slight timing step, and a medium size stride that he controls well by keeping his hands back and in line with his back knee and head. Very distinct rotational hitter, O’Conner has plus bat speed and maintains good athletic posture from his load to the point of contact. He rotates his back shoulder extremely well through the point of contact. This keeps his elbow in the ‘Power L’ position, resulting in quite an impressive compact swing for a high school bat. O’Conner uses his quick hips to his advantage, and his back knee is bent 90 degrees at the point of contact (indicating he's rotating cleanly while maintaining good balance and weight distribution). He also has good hip/shoulder separation, which is the foundation of the plus bat speed and impressive loft. O'Conner won the Rawlings Home Run Derby at the Perfect Game National Showcase and has big loft power to all fields along with excellent raw bat speed. The momentum O’Conner generates in his swing carries through to his post-contact extension and easy follow-through, which is eerily similar to Manny Ramirez's.

 

Defense:

Two things immediately stand out about O’Conner's defensive game are his excellent arm strength and lightning quick release. He has been clocked in the mid-90s on the mound, and carries that arm strength into the field. His range is merely adequate, but he makes up for it in part with his quick release and in part with his agility. He has good athleticism at shortstop but has tinkered with catching and many think it's the best spot for him. O’Conner moves his feet well and centers on the ball, positioning himself well for rough hops. He should have the athleticism to stick behind the plate, as a pro.

 

Motion:

Throwing out of a high ¾ arm slot, O’Conner comes at hitters with a high leg lift, and continues to drop and drive on his way to the plate. Upon doing so, his shoulders fly open before his hips, often resulting in a lack of command. Instead of breaking his hands towards second base, O’Conner loses deception by cuffing the ball behind him towards first base. His arm action is a bit worrisome, as well. He’s late and breaks his hands with his elbows, which is often an indicator of a potential future injury. Upon foot strike, his hips are already fully rotated, causing his arm to play catch-up, creating unnecessary stress on his shoulder/elbow. He lands on his front foot with plant-leg bent, which is a good thing. However, he doesn’t generate the maximum amount of power because he doesn’t push off the rubber as hard as his velocity indicates. More of a thrower than a pitcher at this point in time. He finishes falling off towards first base, placing him in an awkward fielding position.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - O’Conner’s fastball compares favorably to his peers -- a prep class flush with power arms. He sits around 91-92 but can dial it up to the mid to upper-90s. Presently, his Command is below average.

 

Curveball - O’Conner’s curveball has good 11-5 bite and sits in the 74-79 range. Still inconsistent, it can flatten a little and his command of the pitch fluctuates with his ability to find the release point.

 

Change-up - Didn't flash his change, but it is a known bullet in his arsenal -- reputation for being a work-in-progress.

 

Notes:

O'Conner has an impressive collection of tools. His athleticism and arm strength stick out most, but his hit and power tools are potentially equally impressive. His twitch actions help him to generate good bat speed and he maintains good balance throughout. O’Conner has the best arm strength/release combo after consensus #1 Bryce Harper. O’Conner is also rated the #2 catcher on most boards behind Harper. He's close to physically mature, though he'll continue to get stronger. He has a pro body and the collection of tools to go early. Justin O’Connor will be a surprise in the first round at the catching position. I saw him at area code and it was some of the best stuff in the country. One scouting director told me at a game in early may, “He is obnoxiously talented.”

 

Projected Position: C

Suggested Draft Slot: Mid-Late 1st Round

 

17) Tampa Bay Rays: Dylan Covey, Marantha HS, RHP

Frame:

Covey has the build to go with his power-pitcher arsenal. He's close to filled-out, but will add strength as he tightens his physique and continues to mature. He profiles as a workhorse with a sturdy, durable build. He shows solid body control and actions. Will need to maintain conditioning.

 

Motion:

At his best, Covey keeps an easy arm action with minimal head/shoulder tug. Other times, Covey throws with some effort, but is clean enough in his follow through to limit some of the strain on his arm. His biggest hurdle looks to be consistently commanding his pitches down the line, primarily because of the head/shoulder tug as he comes through and the fact that he can get a little stiff in his landing (particularly when he's reaching back for something extra). His motion reminds me a bit of last year's 1st-round draftee Jacob Turner, though admittedly with less effort through his release and a less violent follow-through. Like Turner, Covey also breaks his hands a little early, but does a very good job of keeping the ball behind his body to prevent the hitter from picking it up early. He does a good job of hitting the same arm slot with each of his offerings, and generally repeats his mechanics well. His velocity is generated through excellent arm speed, a strong body and some of the best hip/shoulder separation in the 2010 prep ranks.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Covey's fastball ranks up there with the likes of Whitson, Cole and Taillon, sitting low-90s and getting up to the 94-95 mph range while showing good life to the arm side. He's comfortable throwing the pitch to both sides of the plate and gets good downward plane on the offering. In Jupiter he showed the ability to sustain his velocity and late life over multiple innings.

 

Curveball - Covey has one of the best curveballs in the draft, showing hard late bite and plus depth with true 12-6 action. I had him 83-86 mph with the pitch with some inconsistency in the shape, though all I've read indicates he's generally more consistent with the breaking ball. He gets tight spin and can throw for a strike or bury as a chase pitch. Will improve command as he continues to refine and improve upon hitting his release point consistently.

 

Change-up - Covey's change shows potential, but he tips the pitch some by decelerating his arm. Hits the same arm slot as his fastball and curve, giving it good deception if he can improve his arm speed. Good feel for a prep arm. I clocked him at 81-82 mph with the pitch.

 

 

18) Los Angeles Angels: Jesse Hahn, Virginia Tech, RHP

Frame:

Average build with some projection left in large frame. Room in core and trunk to add mass -- perhaps as much as 25 lbs. Moves well off of mound. Flashes decent athleticism on the mound; bodes well for continued success in mechanics as he fills-in.

 

Motion:

Hahn shows some deception and maximizes it with a quick arm action out of a 3/4 slot. He utilizes a high leg kick, breaking his hands mid-torso entering his stride and keeps a good tempo. While he centers fairly regularly, he does on occasion drift during his leg kick as he begins to stride, which can throw off his release (and command). Hahn's arm action is solid, and while it's a bit on the long side in the back he keeps it very well shielded from the hitter. The acceleration through his release is such that the ball jumps on the hitter, helping his secondaries to play-up. The low- to mid-90s velocity on his fastball and spin on his curve is generated through his arm speed, as his lower-drive is limited and his hip/shoulder separation is just average. The biggest flag is a stiff plant leg and upright landing, which halts his momentum towards the plate some and could negatively impact his ability to refine his command as he matures. He throws with some effort (slight shoulder tug and head whack) and his arm slot doesn't come with much shoulder tilt. This, combined with his abrupt landing, has the potential to place some strain on his shoulder, though that is speculative and highly dependent on the individual. His follow-through is easy, with very little recoil, and he stays well balanced throughout.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Reports from the Cape last summer had Hahn touching the upper-90s with his fastball. While that raw arm strength is still in there, he lives in the low- to mid-90s, with his fastball flattening-out past the 94/95 pmh range. At it's best, his heater shows good sink and run, and while not surgical with the offering he can generally command to the quadrants.

 

Curveball - Hahn's curve is a potential plus pitch that flashes above-average right now. He matches his fastball arm slot, adding deception, and gets good downer action. He throws the breaking ball 79-84, with the best depth/bite coming somewhere in the middle of that range. Hahn has a tendency to fall back on the pitch, as he gets a fair number of swings-and-misses out of the zone, but will need to mix-in more change-ups against more disciplined hitters.

 

Change-up - Though not a finished product yet, Hahn's off-speed works now and could be a weapon with more reps. He's 80-82 mph with the offering and flashes some fade and depth. Like his curve, Hahn does a good job matching arm slots with his fastball.

Notes:

Entering the season, the biggest questions surround Hahn were whether he could show adequate endurance, maintain his stuff through starts (and over the course of a season) and show a full repertoire that could project to that of a pro starter's. Hahn was averaging 6.5 IP/GS through his first nine starts before kidney stones and some forearm tightness shelved him for a few weeks. His frame is durable and projects to add strength, boding well for his chances of weathering the strains of a full pro season. He has shown solid consistency through the middle-innings but has noticeably tired entering the 7th (though it stands to reason that as he matures and finishes filling-out, his strength and endurance should continue to improve). The quality of his secondaries has improved over the season, and all three of his offerings project to at least Major League average, with his fastball and curve carrying plus potential. His motion may not lend itself to above-average command, which ultimately will be the largest hurdle to his development into a successful pro starter. Hahn has an excellent fallback as a power arm in the pen, but should get every chance to stick as a starter. The forearm tightness is a wild card and will raise some flags, with his ultimate slotting likely highly dependent on his performance over the final two to five starts of the year (depending on VaTech's success in the post season).

 

Projected Position: Mid-rotation to Front-end Starter

Suggested Draft Slot: Mid- to Supplemental-1st Round

 

 

19) Houston Astros: Stetson Allie, St. Edwards HS, RHP

Frame:

Strong, thick build; close to filled-out. Adequate actions in the field (3B/1B). Shows understanding of how to make use of his strength at the plate, in the field and on the mound. Body control is solid. Elite power prospect.

 

Swing:

Allie's strength is, well, his strength. Hitting from a tall, upright stance, Allie does an excellent job of utilizing the leverage created through his core to produce easy plus raw-power. His bat speed isn't elite, and his ability to muscle the ball will decrease as he faces more advanced pitching. As with many high schoolers, his approach will need to be improved upon, with a focus on better commanding the strikezone and handling off-speed stuff.

 

Defense:

Allie is adequate in his actions at third base, and there's legit pro potential with his glove with increased repetitions. When he's off it can be ugly, be he shows enough comfort thus far to at least be able to begin a pro career at the hot corner. Most impressive is his true "80" arm with solid accuracy, which would be a shame to waste at first base (though he has shifted there on all-star teams to defer to better defenders. An outfield corner could be an option, but seems unlikely at this point.

 

Motion:

For someone that throws as hard as does Allie, there is surprisingly fluidity in his mechanics. His arm action is pretty free and easy -- simply lightening-quick. He centers well over the rubber, gets remarkable drive from his legs, and his hip-shoulder separation (lower-half forward, upper-half to third at plant) allows him to maximize the strength in his core. All of this adds up to incredible velocity, and his arm speed and strength help him to generate good spin on his slider. Even his follow-through is impressively controlled considering the momentum coming through after release. There are two big flags that could be contributors to his bouts of wildness -- one that might be correctable and one that is likely to stick around. First - the correctable - his arm action is very long in the back, coming all the way down behind him to almost knee level after hand-break and then coming all the way back, up and around to a clean 3/4 arm slot. With so much torque in his mid-section as he rotates through, his arm is going to have a hard time taking the same path each pitch, which will in turn make it difficult to nail down a consistent release point on his offerings. Second - the likely non-correctable - is his head/shoulder tug as he releases and rotates through. This is the highest effort point of his delivery as, at release, he tugs down and away with his head and shoulder. As with the long arm action, it will make it more difficult for him to nail down a consistent release point and, ultimately, prevent him from ever truly being a good "command" pitcher. Considering how easy his arm action is, this seems like a reasonable trade-off for the velocity he produces. Ultimately, cleaning-up the arm action some could be enough to reign-in his control and make his arsenal an effective collection of weapons against pro hitters.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - As owner to the best pure velocity in the draft class, Allie blows-up the gun wherever he goes (consistently mid-90s and dials-up to 97-99 with frequency). His lack of control drops the pitch down a grade right now, but with improved control it could be a true plus-plus Major League offering down the line. While he gets some armside run, there isn't much in the way of "explosiveness" or late life, and he may need to fool around with some grips to see if he can get a little more action at the pro ranks.

 

Slider - Allies's slider has plus potential for the velocity alone (upper-80s, breaking 90 on occasion). As is the case with his fastball, he doesn't control the pitch yet, though it's effective as an off-speed offering and a chase pitch right now. He gets good spin and a nice, tight break with excellent tilt down in the zone. The trajectory is similar to his fastball.

 

Change-up - Not scouted. Allie has little use for a change-up right now. As noted, his slider is a fine change-of-pace pitch, and the list of high school hitters that could hit his fastball, even if they know it is coming, is microscopic. He has showcase velocities for a change, so the pitch is definitely something he's at least tinkering with.

 

20) Boston Red Sox: Kaleb Cowart, Cook County HS, 3B

 

21) Minnesota Twins: Alex Wimmers, Ohio State, RHP

Frame:

Wimmers has a strong and athletic frame. While he’s only average in height, he has fairly broad shoulders, a developed core and a strong lower body. There is a little projection left in him, as he could stand to gain some arm strength to increase durability throughout the game and season.

 

Motion:

Wimmers throws out of a true three-quarters arm slot, and starts his motion tall and using a quick and high leg kick before entering his delivery. The high leg kick is effective in building momentum to the plate, but he doesn't always balance over the rubber, leading to inconsistencies in his timing and variance in his release. This, in turn, can affect his control and command of his pitches. Moving out of his leg kick, Wimmers flies open with his glove, which can also detrimentally affect his control. He circles the baseball down below his waist before bringing his arm up, creating extra deception. During the arm swing, his glove-side elbow rises up above his shoulder, creating extra stress on the UCL of the non-throwing arm. He strides sideways towards the target, maximizing the force with which the hips pull the shoulders around. Upon foot strike, landing properly with his glove-side knee bent, his arm is in good shape -- parallel to the ground and even or slightly below the pitching arm-side shoulder. Wimmers keeps his shoulders back, creating good scapular load and allowing his hips to rotate through first. He incorporates his trunk well, getting good drive off the rubber. He concludes with his upper-body hunched over, but his pitching arm ends almost touching the ground, which shows remarkable follow-through. He isn’t put in the greatest fielding position by doing so because he finishes towards first base, but hasn’t appeared to have problems reacting to balls hit back up the middle.

 

Stuff:

Fastball - Wimmers currently sits in the upper-80’s to low-90’s with his fastball, with a little room to add velocity as he increases arm strength and improves his mechanics. The pitch has good arm-side run and average command that fluctuates when he struggles to find a proper release point.

 

Curveball - Wimmers owns one of the finest curveballs in the draft. He throws the pitch in the mid-70’s with plus 11-5 movement on hitters. With improved mechanics, it could be a true Major League out pitch.

 

Change-up - Wimmers also throws a decent change-up -- a 75-78 mph straight change that flashes good tumble and helps keep hitters honest. As he continues to more consistently hit his release point, it will be a nice complementary piece in his arsenal.

 

22) Texas Rangers: Kevin Gausman, Grandview HS, RHP

 

23) Florida Marlins: Yordy Cabrera, Lakeland HS, SS

 

24) San Francisco Giants: Austin Wates, Virginia Tech, OF

 

25) St. Louis Cardinals: Asher Wojciechowski, The Citadel, RHP

 

26) Colorado Rockies: Anthony Ranaudo, LSU, RHP

27) Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos, Archbishop McCarthy HS, 3B

 

28) Los Angeles Dodgers: Gary Brown, Cal State Fullerton, OF

 

29) Los Angeles Angels: Kolbrin Vitek, Ball State, 2B

 

30) Los Angeles Angels: Sammy Solis, San Diego, RHP

 

31) Tampa Bay Rays: Brett Eibner, Arkansas, RHP

 

32) New York Yankees: Austin Wilson, Harvard-Westlake HS, OF

[davell]

If that's the way the board sits when the Cubs turn comes up, I'll be upset if that's who we pick. In order, I'd take Allie, Covey, Eibner, Hahn, Castellanos, Wojciechowski, Wilson, and Ranaudo all before I'd take O'Conner.

[davell]

By the way, if ANY of Cole, Whitson, Cox, Choice, or either Sale drops to us, i'd take them over anyone else I just listed. Although, I figure Cole and Whitson are about the only 2 of those who have a fairly realistic shot of actually dropping.

[scarey]

Has Castellanos dropped that far? The guy can hit to all fields with power and should be able to stick at third base. What's not to like?