Projecting who starts off where-Pitching for 2010

[davell]

Again, same as hitters in that I'm sure we will have a few castoffs to contend with as well, but here are my guesses......Only starting rotations, as I figure most of the castoffs will wind up in the pen as it is.

 

Iowa

 

Coleman

Cashner

J Jackson

Atkins

Diamond (this leaves off JR Mathes)

 

 

Tennessee

 

Carpenter

Leverton

Searle(although I'd like to see him back at Daytona, since he's still relatively young for the league)

Dolis

Bibens-Dirkx

 

Daytona

 

Shafer

Archer

Bristow

Antigua(I think that he will be "challenged")

Hernandez

 

Peoria

 

Raley

Rusin

Rhee

Kirk(although it's definitely possible we see start out in Boise)

McNutt

Morla

Whitenack

Jung(although I could see him in Boise with Kim, Chen, and the Wangs)

Pena

Mincone

 

Listed 10 here, since some of these guys will be piggybacking, in all likelihood)

[craig]

Great list. I think I'll come back and think about this better later. But I think Cabrera will be on the scene, very possibly at Daytona, although perhaps again at Peoria. BA had him as their #31, as a guy with a chance to step up significantly, and I suspect their scouting is at least partially reflective of what Cub contacts are telling them.

 

Second, one guy who pitched rather well last year was Muschko. He might be in the mix for AA, option for Bibbens-Dirx, or if/when some of the intended get hurt, or if Leverton is moved to relief or Searle or Leverton repeat Daytona.

 

Third, I'm guessing to flip Rusin and Antigua. Rusin is pretty polished, and I have a guess that sometimes they like the Latin kids to experience pitchng in the cold midwest, this could be Antigua's only opportunity to experience that.

[ctcf]

Iowa will be fun as hell this season.

[craig]

Dave, your list was great. Caveats: it's always hard to know how management feels about some guys.

 

Ten things that I never know, variables that can throw things off:

1. Who knows about the lower levels?

2. Who knows about piggy-backs, as you mentioned?

3. Who knows when their is a reliever that they've decided has a good arm, and has little future in rotation, but who they might start in order to give more innings and to develop secondary pitches? (In recent years Ceda, Mateo, Lambert, and Maestri have all opened in rotations, even though they were all understood to be relief prospects.)

4. Who knows when a prospect who's been starting and has some talent will be switched to relief, because they know that's his eventual role? Leverton might be at that stage.

5. Injuries always shuffle things.

6. Who knows about personality factors? Non-confident guys, i think they go slower to avoid ruining their confidence; arrogant guys, I think they may be more willing to move faster; either the guy can handle it, or perhaps he'll learn some humility? (Might this have factored in Searle starting at Daytona last spring?)

7. Who knows how camp impacts? The minor league camp is **way*** shorter than big-league camp, and I think there is a wider variance in how ready or not kid prospects are when they arrive. One or two bad outings versus one or two really sharp outings can perhaps influence where a guy opens and in what role?

8. Who knows to what degree they value having some lefties in minor league rotations?

9. There are always just wild surprises. Who knew last February that Searle and MacDaniel would open in Daytona's rotation, and Lambert, Jackson and Coleman in AA rotation? Certainly not me!

10. Who knows how much they value winning? Fleita and managers both like farm teams to win. Do they start guys like Bibbens-Dirx, Muscho, and Mathes or some younger guys with perhaps higher ceilings?

 

*Muscchko was 2.63 with an 0.88 WHIP and a 0.32HR/9IP ratio as a starter. If he was a 3rd round draft pick or we had scouting that he touches 96, we might have him in some top-15 lists. Does management start him until he fails, because that is just good practice and there is nobody compelling to try anyway? Or is he a roster filler who happened to string 10 good starts together, but management is too long-sighted to get deluded by that? Or do they think his stuff is pretty good, that he might become the next Randy Wells, and that he throws hard enough (88-92?) to be effective with the movement, offspeed, deception, and command that he showed? I have no idea.

 

I'm going to steal from Dave, without the quotations just because it's easier:

 

Dave's Iowa: Coleman Cashner J Jackson Atkins Diamond (this leaves off JR Mathes)

 

Thoughts: Coleman is the one sure thing, IMO. Jackson, almost as sure. But his AA time is still limited; and with his attitude/maturity issues who knows what kinds of lessons they may be wanting to teach him. He was also awfully slow out of the gate last year; so if he again starts rough (this time in camp), an AA start isn't impossible. Cashner likely (I hope); but he might perhaps return to AA, might even possibly win a Cubs spot, or might already be moved to relief, whether in Chicago or in Iowa to prepare him for a summer recall. Caridad might factor; if he doesn't make the Cubs, will they now relieve him at Iowa, or might he go back to rotation to continue to develop his offspeed stuff? Samardzija is certaintly still a possibility. What if he does have a nice camp, but Silva and Gorzellany also do well and Lilly is almost ready from the gate? Send the options guy down to try to refine and sustain something and be ready when needed. James Russell might also still be in the picture, although I assume he's relief for good now.

 

My guess: Coleman Jackson Diamond Cashner Samardzija

 

Dave's Tennessee: Carpenter, Leverton, Searle(although I'd like to see him back at Daytona, since he's still relatively young for the league), Dolis, Bibens-Dirkx

 

Thoughts: This clearly appears to me to be the weakest level. Carpenter seems the lock (although given his stuff, a great spring might even make Iowa. And given his history, a DL might also be well possible.) Dolis also seems a lock. After that, anything goes. Bibens-Dirkx seems a good bet. Chen was 2.86 after the all-star break; he's in the picture. Muschko was great at Daytona; he's in the picture. Leverton and Searle weren't that good at Daytona, so either could repeat or get bumped to relief. But they weren't that bad either, so both might get the normal step and a chance to show improvement. And then there is still Papelbon, if Sandberg just wants to fill and wants a lefty.

 

My Tenn guess: Carpenter Dolis Searle Muschko Bibens-Dirkx

 

Dave's Daytona: Shafer Archer Bristow Antigua(I think that he will be "challenged") Hernandez

 

Thoughts: Massively uncertain here: These names are all in the mix. I wonder if Shafer might be getting bumped to relief sooner or later? You've gotta fill this rotation somehow, so either some guys in the AA mix are held back, or these or some other Peoria candidates get pushed up. Archer seems the one lock. I'm pretty confident on Archer and Cabrera, and much expect Rusin to start here rather than Peoria. My guess is Rhee stays Peoria, given his lack of experience, unless concerns about arm and cold weather make Daytona preferable for arm reason. Also in mix: Shafer, Bristow, Oswaldo Martinez, Raley, Antigua, Searle, Bibens-Dirkx, Hernandez. Raley threw strikes in an elite college conference, and the Cubs liked him enough to pay him a lot. I'm going to guess he gets the edge and starts here.

 

My guess: Archer Cabrera Rusin Bristow Raley

 

Peoria thoughts: If Daytona is hard, Peoria is worse, and as Dave said, with piggy-backing, not sure rotation means much.

Raley and Rusin are obvious candidates, but I'm guessing both straight to Daytona (Raley maybe 50-50, though). I'm guessing Kirk may do Boise. I think Morla, the kid from Oakland, is very probable. I wonder if Mincone is even healthy, much less ready to start in full-season?

 

My best (and meaningless) Peoria guess: Antigua Rhee Morla Hernandez McNutt