If our whole bullpen was DFA'd today...

[KingCubsFan]

Would anyone care (assuming they had no trade value)? I'm confident a back end of Stevens, Gaub and Parker (most underrated player in the system IMO) would be better than anything our Major League team throws out there. Throw in Perkins, Berg, and some free agents.

[Vanilla Ice]

I would definitely miss Guzman, Marmol, and Marshall. And the draft picks for Gregg

[Monco]

Cubs First Round Draft picks

 

2008 Andrew Cashner, RHP 19

2007 Joshua Vitters, 3B 3

2006 Tyler Colvin, LF 13

2005 Mark Pawelek, lhp 20

2004 NONE --

2003 Ryan Harvey, cf 6

2002 Bobby Brownlie, rhp 21

2001 Mark Prior, rhp 2

2000 Luis Montanez, ss 3

1999 Ben Christensen, rhp 26

1998 Corey Patterson, of 3

1997 Jon Garland, rhp 10

1996 Todd Noel, rhp 17

1995 Kerry Wood, rhp 4

1994 Jayson Peterson, rhp 15

1993 Brooks Kieschnick, of 10

1993 Jon Ratliff, rhp 24

1993 Kevin Orie, ss 29

1992 Derek Wallace, rhp 11

1991 Doug Glanville, of 12

1990 Lance Dickson, lhp 23

1989 Earl Cunningham, of 8

1988 Ty Griffin, 2b 9

1987 Mike Harkey, rhp 4

1986 Derrick May, of 9

1985 Rafael Palmeiro, 1b 22

1985 Dave Masters, rhp 24

1984 Drew Hall, lhp 3

1983 Jackie Davidson, rhp 6

1982 Shawon Dunston, ss 1

1982 Tony Woods, ss 17

1982 Stan Boderick, of 27

1981 Joe Carter, of 2

1980 Don Schulze, rhp 11

1979 Jon Perlman, rhp 12

1978 Bill Hayes, c 13

1977 Randy Martz, rhp 12

1976 Herman Segelke, rhp 7

1975 Brian Rosinski, of 4

1974 Scot Thompson, of 7

1973 Jerry Tabb, 1b 16

1972 Brian Vernoy, p 15

1971 Jeff Wehmeier, p 16

1970 Gene Hisler, of 19

1969 Roger Metzger, ss 16

1968 Ralph Rickey, of 15

1967 Terry Hughes, ss 2

1966 Dean Burk, rhp 5

1965 Dick James, rhp 6

[dew1679666265]

Cubs First Round Draft picks

 

2008 Andrew Cashner, RHP 19

2007 Joshua Vitters, 3B 3

2006 Tyler Colvin, LF 13

 

These three are Tim Wilken picks. Cashner is getting better with every start and is viewed as a potential 2-3 starter or potentially a closer and Vitters appears to be a future star. Colvin has struggled, but is still on the path to the majors.

[Monco]

I'm all for getting extra picks. I would have preferred they kept DeRosa and taken the comp picks, as opposed to trading him for borderline prospects. But until we see guys like Vitters,Cashner, and Colvin get here,or at least perform at a higher level than A ball, we can't put too much into it.

[dew1679666265]

I'm all for getting extra picks. I would have preferred they kept DeRosa and taken the comp picks, as opposed to trading him for borderline prospects. But until we see guys like Vitters,Cashner, and Colvin get here,or at least perform at a higher level than A ball, we can't put too much into it.

 

Cashner at AA: 2.92 ERA/25 H/37 IP/31:17 K:BB

 

Colvin at AA: .296/.336/.508/.844 250 ABs

 

I see your point that minor league success doesn't mean as much as major league success, but you also can't use guys drafted 35 years, 25 years, 15 years and even 5 years ago by different people to discredit Wilken's ability. The Cubs' system has improved steadily since Wilken took over.

 

EDIT: Cashner is 22 at AA and Colvin is 23.

Edited August 23, 2009 by dew

[dew1679666265]

And also, it's very early, but here's the Cubs' 2009 1st round pick Brett Jackson's A ball (Peoria) performance so far:

 

Jackson at A: .309/.396/.515/.911 97 ABs

 

He's also 20 years old.

[Monco]

I didn't realize that Cashner was moved to AA. There's hope, but these guys are still most likely a year away if everything goes according to plan.

 

The list was shown to display how many Cub first rounders actually make it. The rate of baseball first rounders making it is pretty low.

 

Losing picks 2-4 didn't help,but so far the 2006 draft doesn't look to exciting.

[dew1679666265]

I didn't realize that Cashner was moved to AA. There's hope, but these guys are still most likely a year away if everything goes according to plan.

The list was shown to display how many Cub first rounders actually make it. The rate of baseball first rounders making it is pretty low.

 

Normally the success rate of 1st rounders can be low, but Wilken has proven over the years to be very good at drafting players who make the majors. While with the Blue Jays, he had 12 consecutive first round picks make the majors.

 

During his time with the Jays, here's a list of first rounders:

 

2002 Russ Adams

2001 Gabe Gross

2000 Miguel Negron

1999 Alex Rios

1998 Felipe Lopez

1997 Vernon Wells

1996 Joe Lawrence

1996 Billy Koch

1995 Roy Halladay

1994 Kevin Witt

1993 Chris Carpenter

1992 Todd Steverson

1992 Shannon Stewart

1991 Shawn Green

1990 Steve Karsay

1989 Eddie Zosky

 

The bolded are very good to great MLB players. The italicized are role players of varying degrees. That's a really good ratio and makes it very well worth getting extra picks for Gregg.

[dew1679666265]

Losing picks 2-4 didn't help,but so far the 2006 draft doesn't look to exciting.

 

Maybe not really exciting, but there are some very interesting role players on that list - about what you can expect, I'd say, without picks 2-4.

 

Guys who may still play a role on the major league squad:

 

Tyler Colvin (still could blossom into a starter at one of the corners)

Jeff Samardzija (still very high upside)

Steve Clevenger

Blake Parker

Jeremy Papelbon

 

Was it a great draft? No, but the 07 and 08 drafts are looking very good and the 09 draft has some good potential. The international signings are also looking extremely intriguing (headlined by Starlin Castro, a 20 year old SS heating up at AA) and I believe Wilken has at least decent authority over it.

[Monco]

The earlier reports I saw had the Cubs system rated in the middle 20's. Sure theres reason to hope, but there usually is.

 

I'm not sure that Hendry values the picks as much as we do.

[dew1679666265]

The earlier reports I saw had the Cubs system rated in the middle 20's. Sure theres reason to hope, but there usually is.

 

I'm not sure that Hendry values the picks as much as we do.

 

Mid 20s now, but that was before the Cubs system showed a ton of promise this year with breakout seasons from very young players (Castro, Jay Jackson, Chris Carpenter, Kyler Burke, Cashner, Vitters, Brett Jackson, DJ LaMahieu, HJ Lee, etc). The current thought is that the farm system could very well end up in the high teens to start next year.

 

And, as a former scouting director, I think Hendry values picks quite a bit. If he doesn't offer Gregg arbitration, it's likely be because he expects Gregg would accept the arbitration.

[Monco]

Giving up 3 picks in the 06 draft and trading DeRosa and others for mediocre prospects instead of picks has me wondering how much he values picks.

[dew1679666265]

Giving up 3 picks in the 06 draft and trading DeRosa and others for mediocre prospects instead of picks has me wondering how much he values picks.

 

Stevens, Gaub and Archer aren't mediocre prospects. Stevens still has good upside as a reliever while Gaub and Archer both are top 20 prospects in the organization. Gaub might be top 10 and the only reason Archer isn't higher is because he's still at a low level.

 

Gaub has set-up type potential as does Stevens. Archer could very well end up starting in the majors. All three have been very good in the minors this year and Stevens has gotten some major league success with us already. They are certainly better than the likely players the Cubs could have gotten with the DeRosa picks.

 

I don't remember exactly where those three picks in the 06 draft went and I can't find anything to remind me. The reason he gave up those picks is key to how much he valued them.

[DiamondMind]

And also, it's very early, but here's the Cubs' 2009 1st round pick Brett Jackson's A ball (Peoria) performance so far:

 

Jackson at A: .309/.396/.515/.911 97 ABs

 

He's also 20 years old.

 

I saw him hit two homer's in the Lilly rehab game. Looks great.

[dew1679666265]

And also, it's very early, but here's the Cubs' 2009 1st round pick Brett Jackson's A ball (Peoria) performance so far:

 

Jackson at A: .309/.396/.515/.911 97 ABs

 

He's also 20 years old.

 

I saw him hit two homer's in the Lilly rehab game. Looks great.

 

Yeah, I haven't watched him yet, but everything I've heard has been very good. If he can stick in center (which it appears he can) then that's looking like a much better pick than originally thought.

[Monco]

The 3 picks were for Jacque Jones, Scott Eyre, and Bob Howry.

 

Stevens is old for a prospect,he'll be 26 next month, Gaub has had 2 shoulder surgeries, and Archer has had control problems. None of the 3 were top 15 prospects in the Cleveland organization.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/267390.html

[Vanilla Ice]

Giving up 3 picks in the 06 draft and trading DeRosa and others for mediocre prospects instead of picks has me wondering how much he values picks.

 

Stevens, Gaub and Archer aren't mediocre prospects. Stevens still has good upside as a reliever while Gaub and Archer both are top 20 prospects in the organization. Gaub might be top 10 and the only reason Archer isn't higher is because he's still at a low level.

 

Gaub has set-up type potential as does Stevens. Archer could very well end up starting in the majors. All three have been very good in the minors this year and Stevens has gotten some major league success with us already. They are certainly better than the likely players the Cubs could have gotten with the DeRosa picks.

 

I don't remember exactly where those three picks in the 06 draft went and I can't find anything to remind me. The reason he gave up those picks is key to how much he valued them.

Yes this. Gaub, Archer, and Stevens are worth more than a sandwich pick (DeRosa will be type B)

[Vanilla Ice]

The 3 picks were for Jacque Jones, Scott Eyre, and Bob Howry.

 

Stevens is old for a prospect,he'll be 26 next month, Gaub has had 2 shoulder surgeries, and Archer has had control problems. None of the 3 were top 15 prospects in the Cleveland organization.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/267390.html

They have all had very good seasons this year and would certainly have moved up.

[dew1679666265]

The 3 picks were for Jacque Jones, Scott Eyre, and Bob Howry.

 

Stevens is old for a prospect,he'll be 26 next month, Gaub has had 2 shoulder surgeries, and Archer has had control problems. None of the 3 were top 15 prospects in the Cleveland organization.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/267390.html

 

All three have improved their stock this season. Gaub has been fully healthy all year, Stevens is on the edge of making the majors and Archer has improved his control considerably (106:84 K:BB last year to 104:57 K:BB this year).

 

Archer is also only 20 in A ball - ahead of schedule by a decent amount, I believe. Stevens will turn 26 in September and is just about major league ready, so he's not much (if at all) behind schedule for a good prospect. Gaub is getting back on schedule, as he's now pitching in AAA at 24. His numbers so far in AAA: 0.71 ERA/10 H/25.1 IP/28:10 K:BB.

 

They're not great prospects, but they're certainly not mediocre either. All have good chances at productive ML careers.

[dew1679666265]

The 3 picks were for Jacque Jones, Scott Eyre, and Bob Howry.

 

Thanks. I couldn't remember, but figured they were probably for FA signings.

 

In my opinion, giving up picks in the 2-4 range for Howry and Eyre isn't undervaluing picks. Both were consistently good before coming to the Cubs and both were productive more often than they were not as Cubs. Jones wasn't as good a use of the pick, but chances are high you'll get a Jacque Jones type in rounds 2-4. Obviously you hope for more, but Jones wasn't a bad player for us.

[Monco]

I considered them mediocre because of age ,injury concerns, and not being rated in the organizations top 15. They have all done well this year,and will rate higher next year.

[dew1679666265]

I considered them mediocre because of age ,injury concerns, and not being rated in the organizations top 15. They have all done well this year,and will rate higher next year.

 

Those are all concerns, but high ceiling prospects aren't mediocre. High risk/high reward is a much better description of Gaub and Archer (moreso Archer than Gaub). I don't see how Stevens - who is a legit major league arm - is anywhere close to mediocre, though.

[Monco]

I considered them mediocre because of age ,injury concerns, and not being rated in the organizations top 15. They have all done well this year,and will rate higher next year.

 

Those are all concerns, but high ceiling prospects aren't mediocre. High risk/high reward is a much better description of Gaub and Archer (moreso Archer than Gaub). I don't see how Stevens - who is a legit major league arm - is anywhere close to mediocre, though.

Gaub looks to have the highest ceiling. Stevens seems to project to be more of a middle reliever.

[dew1679666265]

I considered them mediocre because of age ,injury concerns, and not being rated in the organizations top 15. They have all done well this year,and will rate higher next year.

 

Those are all concerns, but high ceiling prospects aren't mediocre. High risk/high reward is a much better description of Gaub and Archer (moreso Archer than Gaub). I don't see how Stevens - who is a legit major league arm - is anywhere close to mediocre, though.

Gaub looks to have the highest ceiling. Stevens seems to project to be more of a middle reliever.

 

I believe Archer still has starting upside (back of the rotation, probably), so I'd say he has the highest ceiling. Stevens probably is more of a middle reliever, but I wouldn't completely rule out a ceiling of a set-up man.