Narrow down keepers

[MojoJojo]

I'm in a 12 team H2H league with standard 5x5 categories plus OBP for hitters and K/BB for pitchers. I can keep any seven players and there aren't any restrictions or rules about keepers. Everyone just keeps 7 and then the draft is from the remaining pool. I have more than 7 guys I'm considering. I have my ideas about narrowing it down, but I would appreciate any comments. Thanks.

 

Erik Bedard

Chad Billingsley

Joba Chamberlain

Prince Fielder

Rich Harden

Matt Holliday

Scott Kazmir

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Francisco Liriano

Brandon Phillips

Carlos Quentin

Max Scherzer

Geovany Soto

B.J. Upton

Carlos Zambrano

[nilodnayr]

I'm in a 12 team H2H league with standard 5x5 categories plus OBP for hitters and K/BB for pitchers. I can keep any seven players and there aren't any restrictions or rules about keepers. Everyone just keeps 7 and then the draft is from the remaining pool. I have more than 7 guys I'm considering. I have my ideas about narrowing it down, but I would appreciate any comments. Thanks.

 

Erik Bedard

Chad Billingsley

Joba Chamberlain

Prince Fielder

Rich Harden

Matt Holliday

Scott Kazmir

Matt Kemp

Clayton Kershaw

Francisco Liriano

Brandon Phillips

Carlos Quentin

Max Scherzer

Geovany Soto

B.J. Upton

Carlos Zambrano

 

Ok, to start out the guys you can eliminate right away.

 

Zambrano (not a top 10 rounder in a 5x5 and K/BB additional stat really kills his value)

Kershaw (see K/BB)

Billingsley (see above, but to a lesser degree, I like him but in this league his BBs hurt doubly)

Bedard (love him, but you can grab him in the teens)

Scherzer (you can probably pick him up a few rounds into the draft)

 

 

Now the guys you definitely need to keep

Fielder

Kemp

Upton

Phillips (even with a not great OBP, hes still a sure bet in a shallow 2b pool)

Liriano (you can't go without a pitcher and he's your best bet not only skill-wise but playing time too)

 

Guys to think about

 

Soto (I imagine all other top tier catchers will be kept, but take a look. I like 10 catchers this year, its an oddly deep position (assuming 1 C league))

Holliday (depends on how much you think the stadium change hurts him...I say a lot)

Quentin (depends on how much you think the broken wrist hurts him...I say a lot)

Harden (just too big of an injury risk for me to be taken in the top 7)

Joba (innings will be an issue and hes started out really poorly this spring)

Kazmir (I like him, but not top 7)

 

I really like all your pitchers as a whole, but a lot of these guys in the No and Maybe groups are 8-10th rounders, not top 7. With 7 keepers you could get away with only taking 1 pitcher, theres always lots of value to be had for pitchers 8-12 (and even at the end of the draft with guys like Escobar, Carpenter, and Smoltz or Sheets). I think you should pick Soto and one of Holliday/Quentin considering you already are keeping 2 other OFs.

[MojoJojo]

Thanks for the input. I appreciate it.

 

I agree on a lot of the pitchers. The only one I don't think I'll be able to get back if I want to is Billingsley. I hate to take a risk on losing Scherzer and Kershaw (I lost Lincecum that way last year) but it looks like they're going after the 12th round in a lot of drafts so I should be able to target them there if I want to.

 

The only other C being kept as of now are Martin, McCann, and Doumit so I think I should be OK giving up Soto even if I don't get him back (although I do plan to try to get him back).

 

I'm sold on Fielder, Philips, Kemp, and Liriano.

 

Not so sure about Upton. What do you think are the chances of getting the 2007 version vs. the 2008 version?

 

I'm not as worried about Holliday as I am about guys coming back from injuries (Upton, Quentin).

 

I think the current list (until I change my mind again) is

Fielder, Holliday, Kemp, Liriano, Philips, Quentin, Upton

 

I also have Garrett Atkins and Stephen Drew. Think they should bump any of those guys?

[nilodnayr]

Thanks for the input. I appreciate it.

 

I agree on a lot of the pitchers. The only one I don't think I'll be able to get back if I want to is Billingsley. I hate to take a risk on losing Scherzer and Kershaw (I lost Lincecum that way last year) but it looks like they're going after the 12th round in a lot of drafts so I should be able to target them there if I want to.

 

The only other C being kept as of now are Martin, McCann, and Doumit so I think I should be OK giving up Soto even if I don't get him back (although I do plan to try to get him back).

 

I'm sold on Fielder, Philips, Kemp, and Liriano.

 

Not so sure about Upton. What do you think are the chances of getting the 2007 version vs. the 2008 version?

 

I'm not as worried about Holliday as I am about guys coming back from injuries (Upton, Quentin).

 

I think the current list (until I change my mind again) is

Fielder, Holliday, Kemp, Liriano, Philips, Quentin, Upton

 

I also have Garrett Atkins and Stephen Drew. Think they should bump any of those guys?

 

If you take into consideration regular season AND playoffs, Upton of 2008 looks a lot more like Upton of 2009. Regardless though hes definitely a top 7 especially in a keeper league. If you seen my other posts I'm going crazy over the lack of anything usable at 3B outside the top tier guys, so I think you should take a long hard look at Atkins. Drew...eh, hes overrated and would have to improve significantly to be worth a top 7 pick. Holliday and Quentin are definitely top 7 picks despite my hesitation about both so throwing Soto back and keeping both of them is certainly a fine decision, my only concern is that leaves you with 4 OF...how many can you start? Have you looked into trades?

[sneakypower]

i'd keep

 

Prince Fielder

Matt Holliday

B.J. Upton

Geo Soto

Carlos Quentin

Chad Billingsley

Francisco Liriano

 

and not think twice about it

 

unless maybe to swap out Geo or Quentin with Kemp (4 OFs). Upton still provided fantastic OBP value for you in a injury-marred season. he's probably the first player on your entire list i'd keep. and for as many years as your league stays together.

 

oh, you're also going to be kicking yourself in 2010 when Holliday is the best fantasy hitter in the world playing for Boston.

[jyoung55]

Thanks for the input. I appreciate it.

 

I agree on a lot of the pitchers. The only one I don't think I'll be able to get back if I want to is Billingsley. I hate to take a risk on losing Scherzer and Kershaw (I lost Lincecum that way last year) but it looks like they're going after the 12th round in a lot of drafts so I should be able to target them there if I want to.

 

The only other C being kept as of now are Martin, McCann, and Doumit so I think I should be OK giving up Soto even if I don't get him back (although I do plan to try to get him back).

 

I'm sold on Fielder, Philips, Kemp, and Liriano.

 

Not so sure about Upton. What do you think are the chances of getting the 2007 version vs. the 2008 version?

 

I'm not as worried about Holliday as I am about guys coming back from injuries (Upton, Quentin).

 

I think the current list (until I change my mind again) is

Fielder, Holliday, Kemp, Liriano, Philips, Quentin, Upton

 

I also have Garrett Atkins and Stephen Drew. Think they should bump any of those guys?

 

Don't forget when drafting that the draft is for a keeper league. People are going to value Billingsley, Max, and Kershaw more than in a regular draft, which is probably how you lost Lincecum. ::Let's reflect for a second here... you dropped lincecum last year???::

 

I'd probably take Quentin out of that list because of the type of injury he has and keep another one of your pitchers. But heck, I think its a tough call with only being able to keep 7.

[MojoJojo]

Thanks everyone for the insightful comments.

 

Don't forget when drafting that the draft is for a keeper league. People are going to value Billingsley, Max, and Kershaw more than in a regular draft, which is probably how you lost Lincecum. ::Let's reflect for a second here... you dropped lincecum last year???::

That's a good point. I should remember that but somehow I never do. ::I know, right. I had the 10th pick and thought he'd be there. He wasn't::

 

I'd probably take Quentin out of that list because of the type of injury he has

I'm on the fence with Quentin, as well. If I keep another pitcher or Atkins, it'll be to replace Quentin.

 

unless maybe to swap out Geo or Quentin with Kemp (4 OFs). Upton still provided fantastic OBP value for you in a injury-marred season.

OF is by position +1 anywhere, so 4 OF but 3 have to be in position. I'm pretty sold on Kemp. If it comes down to Kemp or Quentin, Kemp's my choice. It would be sad to lose Geo, but I think I can do well enough at C even if I don't get him back. Agree on the Upton OBP. His high walks really help. That was just about the only bright spot with him last season. Well, that and the 44 steals.

 

I was assuming that if I didn't hold on to Philips, I wouldn't be thrilled about the 2B options. But not seeing him on your list made me check it out more closely. Utley, Pedroia, Kinsler, Roberts, Uggla, Cano are being kept. But that's going to leave Alexei Ramirez, DeRosa, Jose Lopez. Might be some better options available than I thought. I hadn't even considered dropping Philips, but perhaps I should think about it.

 

This draft just needs to happen already. We still have two more weeks before keepers need to be set. With that much time to wait, I'm going to talk myself into keeping Elijah Dukes before it's over.

[sneakypower]

kelly johnson, stewart, fontenot, kendrick are also passable 2B options you can wait on.

 

rickie weeks too

[Tracer Bullet]

Yeah, 2B is better than you think. There's still a huge drop after the elite, but the depth isn't as bad as 3B, for example.

 

I mostly agree with Cro Magnon's list, though I'd keep Kemp over Soto.