Re: Teahen for Fontenot and Marshall?

[Jehrico]

I don't think Theriot is a particularly great player, but if he's among the weakest links in your otherwise potent lineup, with a solib OBP and non-disasterous defense at short, I'm not going to complain too loudly.

 

He's not a huge plus, but he gets on base often enough to make him valuable if used correctly- if only because he doesn't kill you and allows you to spend more freely elsewhere.

I don't think Theriot is as bad as some people make him out to be. However, I'm not willing to bet that he can reproduce what he did last year either. I expect him to regress towards the norm. He may not, who knows. Either way, his value is as high as it's going to ever be and he's replacable. We either need to sell high on a trade with him this offseason, or just accept he's going to be our starting SS for the next 5 years.

What norm, though?

 

Going back to AA in '05, Theriot's posted pretty consistent .300 AVG, low-SLG, OBP-heavy .750ish OPS's, and that's exactly what the Cubs got from him in '08.

 

Seems to me that, if anything, he regressed to the norm in '08, and '07 was uncharacteristically bad.

 

Of course perhaps the better explanation is that Theriot simply hasn't been in the bigleagues long enough to establish a norm in the first place. At any rate, I surely wouldn't be so quick to assume that '07 is it, and that some sort of deline from '08 levels is inevitable.

Theriot's career minor league line is .271/.355/.692. Guys normally don't put up better lines in the majors than minors, especially guys who spend 6 years in the minors. I think the norm should be expected to be closer to his career minor league line than what he did last year.

 

He turns 29 this month, and is now a marginally passable SS. So, he's got maybe a couple of seasons left to where he can passably play SS. If he can't play SS everyday, he loses a ton of value.

 

Back to the norm argument, some guys like Theriot leave everyone waiting for years for them to trip up but they continue exceeding expectations. Good organizations realize these guys are the exceptions and not the rules, and don't sit on them. More often than not, selling high on guys who fit Theriot's profile ends up being the right answer.

[davearm2]

I don't think Theriot is a particularly great player, but if he's among the weakest links in your otherwise potent lineup, with a solib OBP and non-disasterous defense at short, I'm not going to complain too loudly.

 

He's not a huge plus, but he gets on base often enough to make him valuable if used correctly- if only because he doesn't kill you and allows you to spend more freely elsewhere.

I don't think Theriot is as bad as some people make him out to be. However, I'm not willing to bet that he can reproduce what he did last year either. I expect him to regress towards the norm. He may not, who knows. Either way, his value is as high as it's going to ever be and he's replacable. We either need to sell high on a trade with him this offseason, or just accept he's going to be our starting SS for the next 5 years.

What norm, though?

 

Going back to AA in '05, Theriot's posted pretty consistent .300 AVG, low-SLG, OBP-heavy .750ish OPS's, and that's exactly what the Cubs got from him in '08.

 

Seems to me that, if anything, he regressed to the norm in '08, and '07 was uncharacteristically bad.

 

Of course perhaps the better explanation is that Theriot simply hasn't been in the bigleagues long enough to establish a norm in the first place. At any rate, I surely wouldn't be so quick to assume that '07 is it, and that some sort of deline from '08 levels is inevitable.

Theriot's career minor league line is .271/.355/.692. Guys normally don't put up better lines in the majors than minors, especially guys who spend 6 years in the minors. I think the norm should be expected to be closer to his career minor league line than what he did last year.

 

He turns 29 this month, and is now a marginally passable SS. So, he's got maybe a couple of seasons left to where he can passably play SS. If he can't play SS everyday, he loses a ton of value.

 

Back to the norm argument, some guys like Theriot leave everyone waiting for years for them to trip up but they continue exceeding expectations. Good organizations realize these guys are the exceptions and not the rules, and don't sit on them. More often than not, selling high on guys who fit Theriot's profile ends up being the right answer.

Theriot spent the early portion of his minor league career as a switch hitter. His numbers picked up when he dropped hitting lefthanded.

 

I'm sure someone here can shed more light on this and maybe speak to the timing of when the change was made, but suffice it to say that looking at his career minor league line is going to be misleading. I'd put more weight on the last few years when we know for sure he was only batting righthanded. All the weight, actually.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Theriot spent the early portion of his minor league career as a switch hitter. His numbers picked up when he dropped hitting lefthanded.

 

I'm sure someone here can shed more light on this and maybe speak to the timing of when the change was made, but suffice it to say that looking at his career minor league line is going to be misleading. I'd put more weight on the last few years when we know for sure he was only batting righthanded. All the weight, actually.

he spent the first 3 years in the minors switch-hitting. his OPS the next 3 years: 707, 756, 746

[davearm2]

Theriot spent the early portion of his minor league career as a switch hitter. His numbers picked up when he dropped hitting lefthanded.

 

I'm sure someone here can shed more light on this and maybe speak to the timing of when the change was made, but suffice it to say that looking at his career minor league line is going to be misleading. I'd put more weight on the last few years when we know for sure he was only batting righthanded. All the weight, actually.

he spent the first 3 years in the minors switch-hitting. his OPS the next 3 years: 707, 756, 746

Thanks Bob, I knew someone would know the details.

 

So using just 2004 forward, I've got:

MiLB: .294/.366/.372/.738 in 1058 ABs

MLB: .290/.362/.369/.732 in 1264 ABs

 

Those seem like pretty stable numbers to me. Looks like '08 was a shade high (.746 OPS, +14 points), but '07 was quite a bit low (.672 OPS, -60 points).

[Jehrico]

I don't think Theriot is a particularly great player, but if he's among the weakest links in your otherwise potent lineup, with a solib OBP and non-disasterous defense at short, I'm not going to complain too loudly.

 

He's not a huge plus, but he gets on base often enough to make him valuable if used correctly- if only because he doesn't kill you and allows you to spend more freely elsewhere.

I don't think Theriot is as bad as some people make him out to be. However, I'm not willing to bet that he can reproduce what he did last year either. I expect him to regress towards the norm. He may not, who knows. Either way, his value is as high as it's going to ever be and he's replacable. We either need to sell high on a trade with him this offseason, or just accept he's going to be our starting SS for the next 5 years.

What norm, though?

 

Going back to AA in '05, Theriot's posted pretty consistent .300 AVG, low-SLG, OBP-heavy .750ish OPS's, and that's exactly what the Cubs got from him in '08.

 

Seems to me that, if anything, he regressed to the norm in '08, and '07 was uncharacteristically bad.

 

Of course perhaps the better explanation is that Theriot simply hasn't been in the bigleagues long enough to establish a norm in the first place. At any rate, I surely wouldn't be so quick to assume that '07 is it, and that some sort of deline from '08 levels is inevitable.

Theriot's career minor league line is .271/.355/.692. Guys normally don't put up better lines in the majors than minors, especially guys who spend 6 years in the minors. I think the norm should be expected to be closer to his career minor league line than what he did last year.

 

He turns 29 this month, and is now a marginally passable SS. So, he's got maybe a couple of seasons left to where he can passably play SS. If he can't play SS everyday, he loses a ton of value.

 

Back to the norm argument, some guys like Theriot leave everyone waiting for years for them to trip up but they continue exceeding expectations. Good organizations realize these guys are the exceptions and not the rules, and don't sit on them. More often than not, selling high on guys who fit Theriot's profile ends up being the right answer.

Theriot spent the early portion of his minor league career as a switch hitter. His numbers picked up when he dropped hitting lefthanded.

 

I'm sure someone here can shed more light on this and maybe speak to the timing of when the change was made, but suffice it to say that looking at his career minor league line is going to be misleading. I'd put more weight on the last few years when we know for sure he was only batting righthanded. All the weight, actually.

I didn't know that. That changes things a little bit. However, his MLB numbers are still a touch on the high side for what he should reasonably be expected. I'm also pessimistic about how much longer he can play a marginally passing SS, as he turns 29 this week, which dramatically impacts his value. He's still an excellent sell high candidate in my book.