College Football - Week of 11/1

[Mephistopheles]

I don't think the cushion will matter with the voters. Florida will also be top five in the computers going into the weekend. That extra game against Alabama will put them over the top in almost all scenarios. What hurts is that all the one loss teams are in the Big XII South. It'd be different if we saw Oklahoma and Texas again, or Texas and Texas Tech again. Even if Alabama has one loss (to LSU) and Florida beats them by two touchdowns, a win over 1 loss Alabama will be much more impressive than a win over two or three loss Missouri. The scary thing is that Florida will be a two touchdown favorite who, in most people's minds, will the underdog. And given the last two years performances by SEC teams in the title game (an the Auburn debacle in 2004) I think a 1 loss SEC team which has kicked everyone's ass for the last two months will be given the benefit of the doubt - whether that's right or not is a different question.

 

Florida's going to make up ground in the computers before the SEC Championship Game. Florida State's probably going to be ranked 20-30 in most computer polls - at the worst (currently #19 in Sagarin). That game's also in Tallahassee. The game at Vanderbilt will help a bit, #40. The game that worries me is the Spurrier Bowl. If you recall, 2 years ago Florida needed a miracle to walk out with the win via a blocked kick in the last minute. I have South Carolina in the top 25, an they may be the best three loss team in the country. They're moving up. The Ole Ball Coach has a forgotten team there. With Steven Garcia at the helm, they've got a very pretty good developing offense. Garcia has not played a lot, but has NFL tools. Spurrier can make him into something quickly. South Carolina's defense is something else this year. They only gave up 14 to Georgia. They may be the best defense in the league outside of Florida - which is why I think they match up well against the Big XII teams. Either way, South Carolina will be ranked top 25 by that game, if not already so.

 

Of course the Citadel won't matter.

[Mephistopheles]

not sure if they will really jump that high or not, could be very huge for Texas if they don't get passed

 

What sucks for Texas is if they still make the Big XII championship game, are ranked #3 (behind #1 Alabama and #2 Penn State) they will face #10-15 Missouri and will win. No one will be all that impressed with the win. They already knew they would beat Missouri (who has been exposed quite a bit of late and may even stumble before then). If Florida's sitting there at #4 and kicks Alabama's ass like they're supposed to, they take out the #1 team in impressive fashion and will in all probability jump Texas.

 

I agree completly, I think Texas needs to have a decent little cushion over Florida going into the Championship Weekend to have a shot. Pretty much all of the tie-breaker scenarios favor Texas should Tech lose one game, so I think they still have a good shot to get in.

 

Unless we have only two undefeated teams at the end of the regular season the BCS is primed to take another very large hit this year, Texas might just be one of the sacrificial lambs.

 

I'm almost rooting for what would be the most disastrous BCS result ever: an undefeated Penn State not playing in a championship game, while 1-loss Big 12 and SEC champions do. PSU then beats a 1-loss USC in a meaningless Rose Bowl.

 

Early returns are that Penn State is lower than Texas in one of the computers. They're also lower than Florida and Texas in another. This is a real possibility. That being said, I think Penn State will get their ass handed to them by USC. USC's defense has given up more than 10 points once all season. I don't think Penn State would stand a chance against the Trojans. The Trojans don't lose to good teams.

[Derwood]

we've already avoided what would have been the worst BCS scenario, which would have been the Big 10, Pac 10, SEC and Big XII champs all undefeated.

[Mephistopheles]

we've already avoided what would have been the worst BCS scenario, which would have been the Big 10, Pac 10, SEC and Big XII champs all undefeated.

 

I think the worse scenario is one of the undefeated teams getting jumped by a one loss team. 4 0 loss teams is pretty much impossible and if it ever happened, they could just point to it being bad luck. if a one loss team jumps an undefeated team, it will shatter the foundations of the bcs.

[Mephistopheles]

Also don't forget, USC is not in the drivers seat to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State is. Imagine if Penn State is passed up by 1 loss teams and replays Oregon State in the Rose Bowl. Imagine the insanity.

[Derwood]

Also don't forget, USC is not in the drivers seat to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State is. Imagine if Penn State is passed up by 1 loss teams and replays Oregon State in the Rose Bowl. Imagine the insanity.

 

It would be 1994 all over again. We need to move beyond the conference bowl tie-ins

[Mephistopheles]

There's nothing wrong with Bowl Tie-ins. That's not the problem. Oregon State would win the Pac 10. They'd deserve it. I don't see this happening though. Oregon State has three losses, still has California and Oregon at Corvallis and go to Tucson.

[Derwood]

There's nothing wrong with Bowl Tie-ins. That's not the problem. Oregon State would win the Pac 10. They'd deserve it.

 

I don't think it always makes for the most exciting bowl matchups though.

 

I also think there should be a minimum win requirement (9 or 10) for a conference to get an auto-berth. If the ACC champ is 8-5 then it's lame that they get an auto-bid to the Orange Bowl over an undefeated Ball St. or Utah

[Mephistopheles]

Why should an ACC team not get in? The ACC is stronger than the Pac 10. The ACC and Big 10 aren't all that different. The ACC winner will have 9 wins. Oregon State will be 9-3 if they win the Pac 10. Upon further review, the ACC might be better than the Big 10. Edited November 2, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[shnsajax]

Also don't forget, USC is not in the drivers seat to the Rose Bowl, Oregon State is. Imagine if Penn State is passed up by 1 loss teams and replays Oregon State in the Rose Bowl. Imagine the insanity.

 

Could still see USC and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, which would be stupid too.

[Derwood]

Why should an ACC team not get in? The ACC is stronger than the Pac 10. The ACC and Big 10 aren't all that different. The ACC winner will have 9 wins. Oregon State will be 9-3 if they win the Pac 10.

 

does a conference winner have to have a minimum BCS ranking to get the auto-bid?

[Mephistopheles]

Why should an ACC team not get in? The ACC is stronger than the Pac 10. The ACC and Big 10 aren't all that different. The ACC winner will have 9 wins. Oregon State will be 9-3 if they win the Pac 10.

 

does a conference winner have to have a minimum BCS ranking to get the auto-bid?

 

No. There is a rule, if a non BCS conference team is ranked in the top 16 and a BCS conference winner is ranked below them, the non BCS conference gets an auto bid as well. Unfortunately for Ball State, that only applies to one team and they're fifth in the non BCS conference pecking order behind TCU, Boise, Utah and Brigham Young. I don't see a scenario with the MWC winner doesnt get a bid this year.

 

I think itll go something like this

 

1. Big XII #1 (Texas)

2. Big XII #2 (Oklahoma)

3. SEC #1 (Florida)

4. SEC #2 (Alabama)

5. Pac 10 #1 (USC)

6. Big East #1 (West Virginia)

7. Atlantic Coast #1 (North Carolina)

8. Big Ten #1 (Penn State)

9. Non-BCS Auto Bid (Texas Christian)

10. At Large

 

That at large bid will more or less come down to undefeated Boise State and 2 loss Ohio State. Ohio State will get it because of their fan base. BUT! Despite Ohio State getting in and the Rose Bowl choosing them, they could end up switching them to another bowl to avert further disaster. I think you see:

 

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs USC

Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs Oklahoma

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs Texas Christian

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs West Virginia

National Championship Game: Florida vs Penn State

 

Rose bowl would get first choice, then sugar gets one, then orange, then fiesta and finally the sugar again

 

if usf pulls off the winner of the big east, and florida state or miami pulls out the ACC, youll probably see a Miami/FSU vs USF Orange Bowl (which could lead to a UF USC dream sugar bowl matchup if OU or TTU or UT is in the title game)

[TruffleShuffle]

Florida is closing in on USC. 103.9 to 102.6. Sagarin is a HUGE drop off after USC and Florida. Apparently USC and Florida are a touchdown better than Penn State.

 

apparently usc and florida are more than three touchdowns better than oregon st and ole miss, respectively.

[Mephistopheles]

and the 2006 tigers were 20 wins better than the 2006 cardinals. one game is one game. if usc and florida played those games over, theyd probably win by 3 touchdowns. you really dont have an argument. the success of the system over your brain isnt up for debate. again merit vs who is better. football games have probability based outcomes. get it..

[Outshined_One]

I'd be unbelievably pissed off to see OSU in another BCS Bowl. USC would crush them.

[Derwood]

I'd be unbelievably pissed off to see OSU in another BCS Bowl. USC would crush them.

 

OSU could very well lose another game before year's end. They never play well @NU, then they play @Illinois before finishing at home vs. UM. OSU can't score on offense to save their lives. NU is the most likely of the three to beat them I think.

[shnsajax]

I'd be unbelievably pissed off to see OSU in another BCS Bowl. USC would crush them twice in 5 months.

 

fixed

[TruffleShuffle]

so let's say that texas and oklahoma win out, meaning that oklahoma gives texas tech a loss... also assume that texas tech wins out otherwise.

 

who goes to the big xii title game?

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

 

Coaches poll out

 

1. Alabama (40)

2. Penn State (14)

3. Texas Tech (6)

4. Oklahoma (1)

5. Florida

6. USC

7. Texas

8. Oklahoma State

9. Utah

10. Boise State

 

Just 62 points separate #7 Texas from #4 Oklahoma. Penn State is 61 points from Alabama and Tech is 28 points from Penn State.

 

Notables:

11. TCU (setting up #9 vs #11 on Thursday!)

12. Ohio State

13. Missouri

14. Georgia

15. LSU

19. North Carolina

22. California (setting up #22 vs #6 on Saturday)

[shnsajax]

so let's say that texas and oklahoma win out, meaning that oklahoma gives texas tech a loss... also assume that texas tech wins out otherwise.

 

who goes to the big xii title game?

 

If there is a 3 way tie where they all have a 1-1 record vs. each other I believe they will end up going to the BCS rankings because all of the other tie breakers will not decide it.

 

edit: There are some other factors but I don't think any of them would come into play.

Edited November 2, 2008 by shnsajax

[TruffleShuffle]

how on earth is oklahoma getting a first place vote? and let's also notice that oklahoma is now three spots higher than a team that beat them on a neutral field three weeks ago.

[TruffleShuffle]

so let's say that texas and oklahoma win out, meaning that oklahoma gives texas tech a loss... also assume that texas tech wins out otherwise.

 

who goes to the big xii title game?

 

If there is a 3 way tie where they all have a 1-1 record vs. each other I believe they will end up going to the BCS rankings because all of the other tie breakers will not decide it.

 

edit: There are some other factors but I don't think any of them would come into play.

 

yeah that's a pretty important tiebreaker, because there's still a decent shot that the big xii winner goes to the title game, and one of the big xii teams will get left out of the bcs.

[Mephistopheles]

so let's say that texas and oklahoma win out, meaning that oklahoma gives texas tech a loss... also assume that texas tech wins out otherwise.

 

who goes to the big xii title game?

 

Tiebreakers:

 

#1. H2H: 1-1 for all three.

#2. Division Record: 4-1 for all three.

#3. Record vs next highest in division: They all 3-0 against #4, #5 and #6.

#4. Record vs all common Big XII oppenents: 5-1 for all three.

#5. Highest Ranked BCS Team

#6a. If two teams are tied in BCS, then H2H winner goes.

#6b. If all three teams are tied in BCS, best overall winning percentage: All three would be 11-1.

#7. Draw

 

So, if that happens it'll be decided by the BCS. Which right now, would look to favor Oklahoma, if only because their loss came way back in early October.

[shnsajax]

1. Alabama (46) 9-0 1,600

2. Texas Tech (12) 9-0 1,528

3. Penn State (6) 9-0 1,525

4. Florida (1) 7-1 1,398

5. Texas 8-1 1,353

6. Oklahoma 8-1 1,324

7. USC 7-1 1,250

8. Oklahoma State 8-1 1,198

9. Boise State 8-0 1,030

10. Utah 9-0 1,028

11. TCU 9-1 958

12. Ohio State 7-2 898

13. Missouri 7-2 830

14. Georgia 7-2 808

15. LSU 6-2 746

16. Ball State 8-0 594

17. Brigham Young 8-1 536

18. Michigan State 8-2 456

19. North Carolina 6-2 418

20. West Virginia 6-2 303

21. California 6-2 288

22. Georgia Tech 7-2 286

23. Maryland 6-2 242

24. Florida State 6-2 128

25. Pittsburgh 6-2 96

[Mephistopheles]

Florida got an AP vote?

 

damn 3 points separating Tech and Penn State

Edited November 2, 2008 by Mephistopheles