Baseball Prospectus PS Odds: Cubs 2:1 Favorites to win WS

[Mephistopheles]

---------- October 1 ---------------------
    Win DS   Win CS   Win WS    Yesterday
LAA  45.9791  25.6393  12.5129
TB   51.5756  25.4336  12.8452
CWS  48.4244  15.3718   5.4360
BOS  54.0209  33.5553  19.4431
CHC  71.8831  53.4287  32.2881
PHI  45.2256  13.8896   5.0166
LAD  28.1169  14.0216   4.9657
MIL  54.7744  18.6601   7.4924

 

I run data myself on this, while my method isn't nearly developed as BPs, I got the Cubs at around a 19% chance of winning. Honestly? 32% is way too high. I had the Red Sox at 30-something last year iirc.

[inari]

How someone cannot be optimistic and at the same time utterly terrified about this team puzzles me. This isn't even fun. I just want to know what's going to happen.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

---------- October 1 ---------------------
    Win DS   Win CS   Win WS    Yesterday
LAA  45.9791  25.6393  12.5129
TB   51.5756  25.4336  12.8452
CWS  48.4244  15.3718   5.4360
BOS  54.0209  33.5553  19.4431
CHC  71.8831  53.4287  32.2881
PHI  45.2256  13.8896   5.0166
LAD  28.1169  14.0216   4.9657
MIL  54.7744  18.6601   7.4924

 

I run data myself on this, while my method isn't nearly developed as BPs, I got the Cubs at around a 19% chance of winning. Honestly? 32% is way too high. I had the Red Sox at 30-something last year iirc.

 

 

72% to win the NLDS? I haven't seen odds that good on a playoff series since...they put us at about that to beat the Diamondbacks :(

[David]

A big part of that is because the Angels, Red Sox, and Rays are the 3 next most likely and are all in the same league, no?

[SouthSideRyan]

A big part of that is because the Angels, Red Sox, and Rays are the 3 next most likely and are all in the same league, no?

 

Well they have us winning more than half the time we're in the world series, so they've apparently got us as better than them.

[David]

They also made sure to note that the model isn't in any way taking into account the "concerns" surrounding Z and Harden.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm concerned if people don't shut up about "concerns" about Harden that I'll wind up in jail for assault.

[Mephistopheles]

I'm concerned if people don't shut up about "concerns" about Harden that I'll wind up in jail for assault.

 

the fact that harden is harden should make people concerned. hes more mark prior than kerry wood on the injury scale.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm concerned if people don't shut up about "concerns" about Harden that I'll wind up in jail for assault.

 

the fact that harden is harden should make people concerned. hes more mark prior than kerry wood on the injury scale.

 

And if the talking heads phrased it as that, I'd be more understanding. Instead it's fabricated stories of velocity loss and Will Carroll like baseless speculation.