Gauging Our Odds In The NLDS/NLCS

[Ski]

I know that the playoffs are basically a crapshoot due to short series and such, but the Cubs have played very consistantly all season. A thought occurred to me that we could look back and see how often we lost 3 times in a 5 game span, and 4 times in a 7 game span. I'm about to run over to the 2008 Cubs wiki page and get a general idea of how many times that has happened.

 

Of course, it won't be the same as the playoffs, since we play different teams in a 5 game span, but it should give some perspective.

 

EDIT: I'll work on this list until it is done.

 

NLDS (5 game series)

 

Games 1-5: Lost 3 of 5

Games 2-6: Won 3 of 5

Games 3-7: Won 4 of 5

Games 4-8: Won 4 of 5

Games 5-9: Won 5 of 5

Games 6-10: Won 4 of 5

Games 7-11: Won 3 of 5

Games 8-12: Won 3 of 5

Games 9-13: Won 3 of 5

Games 10-14: Won 3 of 5

Games 11-15: Won 3 of 5

Games 12-16: Won 4 of 5

Games 13-17: Won 4 of 5

Games 14-18: Won 4 of 5

Games 15-19: Won 4 of 5

Games 16-20: Won 5 of 5

Games 17-21: Won 5 of 5

Games 18-22: Won 4 of 5

Games 19-23: Won 3 of 5

Games 20-24: Won 3 of 5

Games 21-25: Lost 3 of 5

Games 22-26: Lost 4 of 5

Games 23-27: Lost 3 of 5

Games 24-28: Lost 3 of 5

Games 25-29: Lost 4 of 5

Games 26-30 Lost 3 of 5

Games 27-31: Lost 3 of 5

Games 28-32: Lost 4 of 5

Games 29-33: Lost 3 of 5

Games 30-34: Lost 3 of 5

31-35: Lost 3 of 5

32-36: Won 3 of 5

33-37: Won 4 of 5

34-38: Won 4 of 5

35-39: Won 4 of 5

36-40: Won 4 of 5

37-41: Won 4 of 5

38-42: Won 4 of 5

39-43: Won 3 of 5

40-44: Won 4 of 5

41-45: Won 4 of 5

42-46: Won 3 of 5

43-47: Lost 3 of 5

44-48: Won 3 of 5

45-49: Lost 3 of 5

46-50: Lost 4 of 5

47-51: Lost 3 of 5

48-52: Won 3 of 5

49-53: Won 3 of 5

50-54: Won 4 of 5

51-55: Won 5 of 5

52-56: Won 5 of 5

53-57: Won 5 of 5

54-58: Won 5 of 5

55-59: Won 5 of 5

56-60: Won 4 of 5

57-61: Won 4 of 5

58-62: Won 3 of 5

59-63: Lost 3 of 5

60-64: Lost 3 of 5

61-65: Won 3 of 5

62-66: Won 3 of 5

63-67: Won 4 of 5

64-68: won 4 of 5

65-69: Won 4 of 5

66-70: Won 3 of 5

67-71: won 3 of 5

68-72: Lost 3 of 5

69-73: Lost 3 of 5

70-74: Lost 3 of 5

71-75: Lost 3 of 5

72-76: Won 3 of 5

73-77 Won 3 of 5

74-78 Won 4 of 5

75-79 Won 3 of 5

76-80 Lost 3 of 5

77-81 Lost 4 of 5

78-82 Lost 4 of 5

79-83 Lost 4 of 5

80-84 Lost 4 of 5

81-85 Lost 3 of 5

82-86 Lost of 5

83-87 Won 3 of 5

84-88 Lost 3 of 5

85-89 Won 3 of 5

86-90 Won 3 of 5

87-91 Won 3 of 5

88-92 Won 3 of 5

89-93 Won 4 of 5

90-94 Won 4 of 5

91-95 Won 3 of 5

92-96 Lost 3 of 5

93-97 Lost 3 of 5

94-98 Lost 3 of 5

95-99 Lost 4 of 5

96-100 Lost 4 of 5

97-101 Lost 3 of 5

98-102 Won 3 of 5

99-103 Lost 3 of 5

100-104 Lost 3 of 5

Edited September 26, 2008 by Ski

[splintersag]

So you basically divided the season into fractions of 5 games, looking to see how good we did in those 5 game spans?

 

Cool. It seems like most of these are either "Won 4" or "Lost 3", which makes sense, because that would be 6/10, and our winning % is pretty close to that (.609 as of 9/24).

[nilodnayr]

this seems like a waste of time

[UMFan83]

Now do it only for games when the Cubs played playoff caliber teams.

[David]

any five consecutive games can be a five game stretch

[27up27down]

Hehe this is silly

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's simple. They will either win, lose or a catastrophe will cancel the playoffs.

 

So to win is a 1:3.

[Ski]

any five consecutive games can be a five game stretch

That's why I'm only advancing 1 game at a time on the list.

 

Don't know if this is meaningful or anything, but figured it be something interesting to do.

[David]

eh my bad, i didn't notice that

 

it's interesting, but i definitely wouldn't waste my time, if i were you.

 

instead, i'd be looking for excuses to get out of school next week