Elias figures explained?

[CubColtPacer]

We have a blogger who claims to have mostly figured out how the Elias rankings work. Here is the explanation:

 

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008_07_01_archive.html

 

Scroll down a little bit to Thursday, July 24th to the post entitled: (Almost) How the Elias Sports Bureau Rankings Work

 

Since then, he's done a little more digging and found out what is likely to be the disabled list adjustment, and with that info in hand he's started the job of projecting how Elias will rank the players this year using their up to date statistics. Here are the results of that (still in progress):

 

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html

 

He's done a lot of work on it. From reading a few of the the posts, I'm inclined to believe it. Either way, it will be interesting to see if it's true, as it could be a great resource in future years.

[Sammy Sofa]

I thought this was going to be an academic breakdown of the 15% roostersuckers that showed up to day games.

[Jehrico]

We have a blogger who claims to have mostly figured out how the Elias rankings work. Here is the explanation:

 

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008_07_01_archive.html

 

Scroll down a little bit to Thursday, July 24th to the post entitled: (Almost) How the Elias Sports Bureau Rankings Work

 

Since then, he's done a little more digging and found out what is likely to be the disabled list adjustment, and with that info in hand he's started the job of projecting how Elias will rank the players this year using their up to date statistics. Here are the results of that (still in progress):

 

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html

 

He's done a lot of work on it. From reading a few of the the posts, I'm inclined to believe it. Either way, it will be interesting to see if it's true, as it could be a great resource in future years.

Great find! I hope he updates it for the NL OF/1B soon.

[CubColtPacer]

The NL 1B/OF rankings are up (even though he forgot to change the heading when he copied it, so it says American league).

 

The two Cubs free agents in this category both currently receive no compensation:

 

Jim Edmonds

Daryle Ward

 

However, Jim Edmonds is currently just 2 places off of the Cubs potentially receiving compensation (if they dared offer him arbitration). A big month, or some other scenarios (if the pool of players becomes bigger before August 31st, for example) could get him into that B range.

[nilodnayr]

The NL 1B/OF rankings are up (even though he forgot to change the heading when he copied it, so it says American league).

 

The two Cubs free agents in this category both currently receive no compensation:

 

Jim Edmonds

Daryle Ward

 

However, Jim Edmonds is currently just 2 places off of the Cubs potentially receiving compensation (if they dared offer him arbitration). A big month, or some other scenarios (if the pool of players becomes bigger before August 31st, for example) could get him into that B range.

 

doesnt matter, we wouldnt offer him arbi anyway

[CubColtPacer]

National League 2nd baseman, SS, and 3rd baseman are up:

 

No Cubs free agents

Aramis Ramirez is a solid A (don't have to worry about this for a while)

Mark DeRosa is a pretty solid A (he should be very likely to keep that A going into free agency after next year. His 2008 numbers are going to help him along a lot even after the 2007 campaign drops off).

Mike Fontenot is the very last person to get a B ranking. Once again, not really a concern, but interesting.

Theriot is unranked. My guess is he'll be a B after next season when he'll likely drop off, but still be better than he was in 2007. Again though, still doesn't really matter.

 

So not very much relevant Cub news for free agents, but I'm always curious to see how all the Cubs stack up. Derosa's the biggest key, and it's good to have it confirmed that he would likely be an A when he hits free agency.

[CubColtPacer]

And the NL starting pitchers are out.

 

First, the biggest note up front. According to this guy, Dempster will be classified as a relief pitcher, not a starter. This is because he appeared in more games as a reliever than as a starter over the last 2 years. That's probably going to hurt his value considerably. I hope it isn't really true, but I suspect it is.

 

The Cubs people on the list (all non-free agents):

 

Carlos Zambrano A

Ted Lilly A

Chad Gaudin B

Rich Harden B

Jason Marquis (no compensation)

[reggiemiller rules]

That Lohse deal keeps looking better for the Cards. He has pitched decent for them this year and could get them 2 draft picks as he is a type A player.

[CubColtPacer]

That Lohse deal keeps looking better for the Cards. He has pitched decent for them this year and could get them 2 draft picks as he is a type A player.

 

I think he's going to have a tough time finding work because of that. If the Cardinals are going to let him go after the year, they might be better served by him dropping to a B. Is any team really willing to give up a high draft pick for a pitcher that sat on the free agent market for 6 months just last year? I think if he's an A, it will just end up that he accepts arbitration.

Edited September 4, 2008 by CubColtPacer

[woodchip2153]

That Lohse deal keeps looking better for the Cards. He has pitched decent for them this year and could get them 2 draft picks as he is a type A player.

 

I think he's going to have a tough time finding work because of that. If the Cardinals are going to let him go after the year, they might be better served by him dropping to a B. Is any team really willing to give up 2 draft picks for a pitcher that sat on the free agent market for 6 months just last year? I think if he's an A, it will just end up that he accepts arbitration.

 

Teams don't give up draft picks, do they? They just gain 2 picks in the supplemental round if they don't sign a type A free agent, correct?

[reggiemiller rules]

I thought that if it was a 1-15 pick the team losing the A would get the team that signs 2nd round pick. But i am not an expert on the whole thing.

[CubColtPacer]

That Lohse deal keeps looking better for the Cards. He has pitched decent for them this year and could get them 2 draft picks as he is a type A player.

 

I think he's going to have a tough time finding work because of that. If the Cardinals are going to let him go after the year, they might be better served by him dropping to a B. Is any team really willing to give up 2 draft picks for a pitcher that sat on the free agent market for 6 months just last year? I think if he's an A, it will just end up that he accepts arbitration.

 

Teams don't give up draft picks, do they? They just gain 2 picks in the supplemental round if they don't sign a type A free agent, correct?

 

I mistyped it the first time. The team who signs the type A free agent does lose a draft pick, but only 1. If they are drafting in slots 16-30, then that team has to give up their 1st round pick to the team that lost him. If they draft in slots 1-15, then they give up a 2nd round pick. If they sign multiple type A's, then they give up the first eligible pick to the team with the highest rated type A they signed, then give up their next pick to the one after that, and so on.

 

The team who loses him also receives a supplemental pick. This comes from MLB and not the league. So 1 pick from the other team, and 1 pick from MLB.

 

The reason why I said the Cardinals might be better served to have Lohse be a type B is that if somebody signs a type B, the team that loses him gets a supplemental pick, but the team that signs him loses nothing.

 

So there is no real risk in signing a type B player. But there is a significant price to pay for a type A player (either your first or second round pick). Teams have been more protective of their draft picks lately, and while they will be willing to give them up for players like C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, they are much less likely to be willing to lose that to overpay Kyle Lohse.

[Guest]

And the NL starting pitchers are out.

 

First, the biggest note up front. According to this guy, Dempster will be classified as a relief pitcher, not a starter. This is because he appeared in more games as a reliever than as a starter over the last 2 years. That's probably going to hurt his value considerably. I hope it isn't really true, but I suspect it is.

 

The Cubs people on the list (all non-free agents):

 

Carlos Zambrano A

Ted Lilly A

Chad Gaudin B

Rich Harden B

Jason Marquis (no compensation)

 

I wonder why they have the rankings set up like that. Of course a relief pitcher is going to have more appearances than a starter. A guy could miss half of a season as a reliever and still have more appearances than a guy who started the entire season.

[woodchip2153]

That Lohse deal keeps looking better for the Cards. He has pitched decent for them this year and could get them 2 draft picks as he is a type A player.

 

I think he's going to have a tough time finding work because of that. If the Cardinals are going to let him go after the year, they might be better served by him dropping to a B. Is any team really willing to give up 2 draft picks for a pitcher that sat on the free agent market for 6 months just last year? I think if he's an A, it will just end up that he accepts arbitration.

 

Teams don't give up draft picks, do they? They just gain 2 picks in the supplemental round if they don't sign a type A free agent, correct?

 

I mistyped it the first time. The team who signs the type A free agent does lose a draft pick, but only 1. If they are drafting in slots 16-30, then that team has to give up their 1st round pick to the team that lost him. If they draft in slots 1-15, then they give up a 2nd round pick. If they sign multiple type A's, then they give up the first eligible pick to the team with the highest rated type A they signed, then give up their next pick to the one after that, and so on.

 

The team who loses him also receives a supplemental pick. This comes from MLB and not the league. So 1 pick from the other team, and 1 pick from MLB.

 

The reason why I said the Cardinals might be better served to have Lohse be a type B is that if somebody signs a type B, the team that loses him gets a supplemental pick, but the team that signs him loses nothing.

 

So there is no real risk in signing a type B player. But there is a significant price to pay for a type A player (either your first or second round pick). Teams have been more protective of their draft picks lately, and while they will be willing to give them up for players like C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, they are much less likely to be willing to lose that to overpay Kyle Lohse.

Thanks. I don't understand all these rules completely, and have trouble keeping them straight.

[CubColtPacer]

Looking over the stats again on Dempster, I realized that I probably was going to be wrong on how he stacks up with NL relievers. That was confirmed with the newest release:

 

NL Relievers

 

Cub free agents

Ryan Dempster- Type A

Kerry Wood- Type A

Bob Howry-Type B (not listed as a free agent which is a mistake I believe).

Jon Lieber-no compensation

Chad Fox-no compensation

 

Shouse, Torres, and Gagne are all B's at the moment for the Brewers. Mota is in the no compensation part.

 

Eyre is in the no compensation list even if the Cubs had kept him.

 

Marmol is the 2nd highest reliever ranked behind Brad Lidge.

 

Interesting decision to be made on Howry. The Cubs will have to gauge the market for him before offering him arbitration. My guess is that there will be interest in him as there usually is with good older relievers having a really bad year. The only question is if that interest will manifest itself before the arbitration deadline or not.

[nilodnayr]

Looking over the stats again on Dempster, I realized that I probably was going to be wrong on how he stacks up with NL relievers. That was confirmed with the newest release:

 

NL Relievers

 

Cub free agents

Ryan Dempster- Type A

Kerry Wood- Type A

Bob Howry-Type B (not listed as a free agent which is a mistake I believe).

Jon Lieber-no compensation

Chad Fox-no compensation

 

Shouse, Torres, and Gagne are all B's at the moment for the Brewers. Mota is in the no compensation part.

 

Eyre is in the no compensation list even if the Cubs had kept him.

 

Marmol is the 2nd highest reliever ranked behind Brad Lidge.

 

Interesting decision to be made on Howry. The Cubs will have to gauge the market for him before offering him arbitration. My guess is that there will be interest in him as there usually is with good older relievers having a really bad year. The only question is if that interest will manifest itself before the arbitration deadline or not.

 

the good thing is that hes a type b

[Jehrico]

Looking over the stats again on Dempster, I realized that I probably was going to be wrong on how he stacks up with NL relievers. That was confirmed with the newest release:

 

NL Relievers

 

Cub free agents

Ryan Dempster- Type A

Kerry Wood- Type A

Bob Howry-Type B (not listed as a free agent which is a mistake I believe).

Jon Lieber-no compensation

Chad Fox-no compensation

 

Shouse, Torres, and Gagne are all B's at the moment for the Brewers. Mota is in the no compensation part.

 

Eyre is in the no compensation list even if the Cubs had kept him.

 

Marmol is the 2nd highest reliever ranked behind Brad Lidge.

 

Interesting decision to be made on Howry. The Cubs will have to gauge the market for him before offering him arbitration. My guess is that there will be interest in him as there usually is with good older relievers having a really bad year. The only question is if that interest will manifest itself before the arbitration deadline or not.

 

the good thing is that hes a type b

Doesn't matter. It would only matter if we offered him arbitration, and he went somewhere else anyways. If we don't offer arb, then the rating doesn't matter. No way we'd offer him arbitration.

[nilodnayr]

Looking over the stats again on Dempster, I realized that I probably was going to be wrong on how he stacks up with NL relievers. That was confirmed with the newest release:

 

NL Relievers

 

Cub free agents

Ryan Dempster- Type A

Kerry Wood- Type A

Bob Howry-Type B (not listed as a free agent which is a mistake I believe).

Jon Lieber-no compensation

Chad Fox-no compensation

 

Shouse, Torres, and Gagne are all B's at the moment for the Brewers. Mota is in the no compensation part.

 

Eyre is in the no compensation list even if the Cubs had kept him.

 

Marmol is the 2nd highest reliever ranked behind Brad Lidge.

 

Interesting decision to be made on Howry. The Cubs will have to gauge the market for him before offering him arbitration. My guess is that there will be interest in him as there usually is with good older relievers having a really bad year. The only question is if that interest will manifest itself before the arbitration deadline or not.

 

the good thing is that hes a type b

Doesn't matter. It would only matter if we offered him arbitration, and he went somewhere else anyways. If we don't offer arb, then the rating doesn't matter. No way we'd offer him arbitration.

 

what I meant by that was that if he were a Type A there would be a big disincentive for another team to sign him (since they'd be giving up a pick). But him being a B will mean that we will only get a sandwich, meaning that another team might sign him over some decent Type A reliever (Russ Springer, Juan Cruz, Doug Brocail, Damaso Marte, Darren Oliver) because they won't be losing a draft pick.