Playoff Odds

[nilodnayr]

Over the last two games the Cubs have increased their playoff odds 4.6276% (according to BP) for a current playoff chance of 91.88265%. The last 7 days they have increased their chances by 8.76627%, which is their biggest 7 day increase in over a month. They peaked at 95.49675% on July 11th, but will eclipse that if they sweep the Brewers!

 

Cubs chances are even better if you look at the PECOTA adjusted playoff odds. We are currently at 93.31497%.

 

Interestingly, again looking at PECOTA adjusted, the Brewers dropped 11.3761% over the last 2 games and 16.4197 over their last 3.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's getting into important times.

 

It's true that a few games are too small of a sample size to determine the true ability level of a team. I think sometimes people use that to downplay results too much. A single game may have little value in determining true ability level, but it can be incredibly important in the binary "in or out" playoff system. The later we get with things still being relatively close, the more important the games get.

 

When you get down to 60 games to go in a tight playoff race, the playoff-value of individual games goes up quite a bit.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Those are some good odds.

[David]

Especially when you're playing a team whose performance has a direct impact on your playoff odds.

[TruffleShuffle]

i think i've been saying this for weeks - cubs are one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i think i've been saying this for weeks - cubs are one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

 

But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely."

 

Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%.

[Cubfanintheknow]

"So you're saying there's a chance!"

[chuckywang]

i think i've been saying this for weeks - cubs are one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

 

But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely."

 

Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%.

 

Or 1.25%.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i think i've been saying this for weeks - cubs are one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

 

But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely."

 

Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%.

 

Or 1.25%.

 

1.25 percentage points, 18% of the original odds.

[nilodnayr]

i think i've been saying this for weeks - cubs are one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

 

But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely."

 

Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%.

 

Or 1.25%.

 

1.25 percentage points, 18% of the original odds.

 

.85/8=.10625

.95/8=.11875

An increase of 1.25%

Are you trying to divide percents by percents? If thats the case then .11875/.10625-1=11.7647%

 

Where are you getting 18% from?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i think i've been saying this for weeks - cubs are one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

 

But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely."

 

Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%.

 

Or 1.25%.

 

1.25 percentage points, 18% of the original odds.

 

.85/8=.10625

.95/8=.11875

An increase of 1.25%

Are you trying to divide percents by percents? If thats the case then .11875/.10625-1=11.7647%

 

Where are you getting 18% from?

 

Bad math. 11.7% would have been the right answer for the method I was trying to use.