Bases loaded

[UMFan83]

As some may know, as of last night the Cubs have loaded the bases 24 times in 16 straight games. What they have gotten out of this has been mixed success. They have scored 38 runs total after the bases loaded, meaning that on average during their streak, they should expect to score 1.58 runs each time the bases are loaded (please refrain from pointing out all the fallacies with this math, I am well aware) Here is a look at their results:

 

Overall (24 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 8 times (33% of the time)

1 run scored: 6 times (25% of the time)

2 runs scored: 4 times (17% of the time)

3 runs scored: 2 times (8% of the time)

4 runs scored: 2 times (8% of the time)

5 runs scored: 2 times (8% of the time)

 

With 0 outs (5 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 1 time

1 run scored: 2 times

2 runs scored: 1 time

5 runs scored: 1 time

 

With 1 out (10 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 4 times

1 runs scored: 3 times

2 runs scored: 2 times

4 runs scored: 1 time

 

With 2 outs (9 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 3 times

1 runs scored: 1 time

2 runs scored: 1 time

3 runs scored: 2 times

4 runs scored: 1 time

5 runs scored: 1 time

 

What is amazing is the number of hits that the Cubs have gotten after the bases are loaded.....

 

0 hits: 15 times

1 hit: 6 times

2 hits: 3 times

3+ hits: 0 times

 

And even more strange is how poorly we've hit with the bases loaded lately:

 

Bases loaded before April 22nd: 5 situations, 17 runs scored (3.4 runs per occurrence)

Bases loaded after April 22nd: 19 situations, 21 runs scored (1.1 runs per occurrence)

 

Anyways, just thought I'd share.

[erik316wttn]

There was a time years ago where if I were an opposing manager, I'd have intentionally walked the first 3 batters of every inning. I doubt the Cubs would have scored 3 runs a game under this scenario.

[Banedon]

I wonder how many pitches we are seeing with the bases loaded? I wonder if the plate approach is different in that situation?

[rawaction]

Interesting. Though, that does give me hope that the Cubs will start scoring runs again. They are still showing the same patience. They are still getting guys on base. The difference between them winning and losing games right now is how they hit w/ RISP.

[UMFan83]

I should also have added the following.

 

How the runs were scored:

 

Sac Fly: 4

Walk: 4

Single: 6

Double: 4

Home Run: 2

Fielder's Choice: 2

[Clem Fandango]

I'm confused. How does one score 5 runs with the bases loaded. I'm assuming it's where we score 4 runs all the while the bases remained loaded and we scored a 5th? But wouldn't that be a separate occurance of the bases loaded with however many outs? I'm-a lost. Aside from that the numbers are both impressive that we've scored that much on so few hits and depressing that we've only had that many hits and left the bases loaded so many times

[UMFan83]

I'm confused. How does one score 5 runs with the bases loaded. I'm assuming it's where we score 4 runs all the while the bases remained loaded and we scored a 5th? But wouldn't that be a separate occurance of the bases loaded with however many outs? I'm-a lost. Aside from that the numbers are both impressive that we've scored that much on so few hits and depressing that we've only had that many hits and left the bases loaded so many times

 

Sorry, I made that confusing. I tracked runs and hits that occured from when the bases were loaded, to the end of the inning.

 

So if the Cubs loaded the bases with 0 outs, someone doubled 3 runs home, and the next player homered, that would be 5 runs on 2 hits.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm confused. How does one score 5 runs with the bases loaded. I'm assuming it's where we score 4 runs all the while the bases remained loaded and we scored a 5th? But wouldn't that be a separate occurance of the bases loaded with however many outs? I'm-a lost. Aside from that the numbers are both impressive that we've scored that much on so few hits and depressing that we've only had that many hits and left the bases loaded so many times

 

Sorry, I made that confusing. I tracked runs and hits that occured from when the bases were loaded, to the end of the inning.

 

So if the Cubs loaded the bases with 0 outs, someone doubled 3 runs home, and the next player homered, that would be 5 runs on 2 hits.

 

Ahhh, gotcha

[haltz]

And even more strange is how poorly we've hit with the bases loaded lately:

 

Bases loaded before April 22nd: 5 situations, 17 runs scored (3.4 runs per occurrence)

Bases loaded after April 22nd: 19 situations, 21 runs scored (1.1 runs per occurrence)

It's more of an overperformance before April 22nd than anything. With no outs you'd expect to score around 2.4 runs, with one out you'd expect to score about 1.6 runs, and about .8 runs with 2 outs.

 

The first couple breakdowns are a little low according to RE if I've got all of this right, but the 2 out performance makes up for it and then some.

[nilodnayr]

As some may know, as of last night the Cubs have loaded the bases 24 times in 16 straight games. What they have gotten out of this has been mixed success. They have scored 38 runs total after the bases loaded, meaning that on average during their streak, they should expect to score 1.58 runs each time the bases are loaded (please refrain from pointing out all the fallacies with this math, I am well aware) Here is a look at their results:

 

Overall (24 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 8 times (33% of the time)

1 run scored: 6 times (25% of the time)

2 runs scored: 4 times (17% of the time)

3 runs scored: 2 times (8% of the time)

4 runs scored: 2 times (8% of the time)

5 runs scored: 2 times (8% of the time)

 

With 0 outs (5 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 1 time

1 run scored: 2 times

2 runs scored: 1 time

5 runs scored: 1 time

 

With 1 out (10 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 4 times

1 runs scored: 3 times

2 runs scored: 2 times

4 runs scored: 1 time

 

With 2 outs (9 occurrences):

0 runs scored: 3 times

1 runs scored: 1 time

2 runs scored: 1 time

3 runs scored: 2 times

4 runs scored: 1 time

5 runs scored: 1 time

 

What is amazing is the number of hits that the Cubs have gotten after the bases are loaded.....

 

0 hits: 15 times

1 hit: 6 times

2 hits: 3 times

3+ hits: 0 times

 

And even more strange is how poorly we've hit with the bases loaded lately:

 

Bases loaded before April 22nd: 5 situations, 17 runs scored (3.4 runs per occurrence)

Bases loaded after April 22nd: 19 situations, 21 runs scored (1.1 runs per occurrence)

 

Anyways, just thought I'd share.

 

I got the weighted average of runs we should have scored at 1.44. Assuming expected RS with bases loaded and 0 outs=2.147, 1 out=1.65, 2 outs=.815

 

So by actually scoring 1.58, they've "outproduced" expectations.