Can Theriot actually be adequate?

[UMFan83]

To me it's like we're debating which sandwich to eat, and both have onions on them. And I freaking hate onions. Hate hate hate hate.

 

I just don't really believe in either of them. I do not trust Ronny Cedeno's numbers at Iowa. Everyone knows the PCL is a hitters league. He's not going to hit .350 in the bigs as much as I'd love it.

 

Theriot couldn't even put up big numbers in the PCL so why should I expect anything from him.

 

Ideally Theriot is our backup MIF by midseason and Cedeno has been dealt for his replacement....

 

So if you don't buy Cedeno's numbers in the PCL, what do you think of Soto this year?

[jmajew]

To me it's like we're debating which sandwich to eat, and both have onions on them. And I freaking hate onions. Hate hate hate hate.

 

I just don't really believe in either of them. I do not trust Ronny Cedeno's numbers at Iowa. Everyone knows the PCL is a hitters league. He's not going to hit .350 in the bigs as much as I'd love it.

 

Theriot couldn't even put up big numbers in the PCL so why should I expect anything from him.

 

Ideally Theriot is our backup MIF by midseason and Cedeno has been dealt for his replacement....

 

So if you don't buy Cedeno's numbers in the PCL, what do you think of Soto this year?

 

Didn't Soto get himself in great shape for the first time last season? I thought that was what the majority of people attributed his huge jump to last year.

[Abe Frohman]

Defensive alone - Soto is a needed commodity on this club. If he hits at all, it will be a plus. As we all saw last year, what Soto did in AAA carried over nicely into the Cubs late season drive.

 

So, the difference is Soto tore up AAA as well as NL pitching. Doesn't really compare to Cedeno.

[UMFan83]

Defensive alone - Soto is a needed commodity on this club. If he hits at all, it will be a plus. As we all saw last year, what Soto did in AAA carried over nicely into the Cubs late season drive.

 

So, the difference is Soto tore up AAA as well as NL pitching. Doesn't really compare to Cedeno.

 

In 80 ABs at the end of 2005, Cedeno hit .300 with a .356 OBP

In 54 ABs at the end of 2007, Soto hit .389 with a .433 OBP

 

I don't get why a small sample size like that tells you much of anything.

[jmajew]

Defensive alone - Soto is a needed commodity on this club. If he hits at all, it will be a plus. As we all saw last year, what Soto did in AAA carried over nicely into the Cubs late season drive.

 

So, the difference is Soto tore up AAA as well as NL pitching. Doesn't really compare to Cedeno.

 

In 80 ABs at the end of 2005, Cedeno hit .300 with a .356 OBP

In 54 ABs at the end of 2007, Soto hit .389 with a .433 OBP

 

I don't get why a small sample size like that tells you much of anything.

 

I agree with the sample size issue, however, one thing Soto has shown throughout his career is very good plate discipline. Which Cedeno never has. We can reasonably expect a 350 obp from Soto this year. For the past 4 years it has been over 350. IMO I'd rather put the faith in a small sample size on someone with good plate discipline than someone without. You don't suddenly learn plate discipline.

[Tracer Bullet]

It really doesn't matter if Theriot can get more walks....his slugging ability is terrible and limits overall value as a player. Cedeno's lack of plate dicipline will also likely limit him as a ballplayer, but he still has an upside that Theriot doesn't.

 

And he has a floor that Theriot doesn't, which is just as important.

 

No - that's complete junk.

 

The arrogance on this board is incredible. Calling people's opinions junk, dismissing arguments with eyerolls and flip, one-sentence replies.

 

I've been around baseball my whole life. I played baseball for four years at a Pac-10 school, and now that I've graduated, I work as a scout for that same school, going around the country and watching baseball for my job. I love what I do. We use a combination of statistical analysis and personal evaluation -- and I'm learning new things every day. I'd like to think I know a bit about baseball and, hopefully, I can bring something positive to the table when I post.

 

But apparently, since I don't have 12,000 posts, it seems that my opinions are just dismissed as "junk." I can hardly get multiple-sentence replies to my posts.

 

Despite a few knowledgeable guys, posting here sometimes feels like pissing in the wind.

 

Sorry for the rant.

 

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

Not to mention, the difference in runs from Cedeno's floor to Theriot's production might very well be offset by not having Theriot's .330 OBP/sub-.700 OPS getting 700 PAs this year.

 

ETA - I don't know why you think post count has something to do with this. That doesn't make any sense. And if you had quoted my entire response, you'd see that you got a lot more than just 1 sentence.

[TruffleShuffle]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

[Tracer Bullet]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

 

You're exactly right. And losing a handful of games in the first 2 months (or more than that over the course of the year) b/c we have Theriot's .330 OBP in the top spot is going to be a real issue in September. That is, unless we play Cedeno, hit him 8th and he puts up a .750 OPS b/c he's not as terrible now as he was when he was 23.

[David]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

 

You're exactly right. And losing a handful of games in the first 2 months (or more than that over the course of the year) b/c we have Theriot's .330 OBP in the top spot is going to be a real issue in September. That is, unless we play Cedeno, hit him 8th and he puts up a .750 OPS b/c he's not as terrible now as he was when he was 23.

 

I might be wrong here, but I really don't think any lineup order problem (even having your worst hitter at the top) could cause a team to lose a "handful" of games in two months. Maybe a handful over the course of the season.

[CubinNY]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

[Tracer Bullet]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

 

You're exactly right. And losing a handful of games in the first 2 months (or more than that over the course of the year) b/c we have Theriot's .330 OBP in the top spot is going to be a real issue in September. That is, unless we play Cedeno, hit him 8th and he puts up a .750 OPS b/c he's not as terrible now as he was when he was 23.

 

I might be wrong here, but I really don't think any lineup order problem (even having your worst hitter at the top) could cause a team to lose a "handful" of games in two months. Maybe a handful over the course of the season.

 

It's perfectly possible that Theriot's suck at the top of the lineup could cost us 2 games. Especially on the days we get bad outings from our less than stellar SPs. It's just as likely as it costing us 2 games in 2 months by having Cedeno in the lineup hitting 8th v. Theriot in the lineup hitting 1st (as truffle suggested).

 

I took truffle's "a game or 2" and paraphrased it into "a handful" for my comparison. mea culpa.

[bukie]

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

 

Just because you say it doesn't, doesn't make it true. There is definite merit to compare a low-risk, low-reward player to a high-risk, high-reward player. If you know you are getting between a .320 OBP and a .340 OBP with one player, but the other player could give you between a .290 OBP and a .360 OBP, it's worth considering the safer player, especially if you can't afford the low-end production of the risky player.

[rocket]

i think it's funny that people here assume that it's impossible for theriot to be as bad as cedeno was in 2006.

[Tracer Bullet]

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

 

Just because you say it doesn't, doesn't make it true. There is definite merit to compare a low-risk, low-reward player to a high-risk, high-reward player. If you know you are getting between a .320 OBP and a .340 OBP with one player, but the other player could give you between a .290 OBP and a .360 OBP, it's worth considering the safer player, especially if you can't afford the low-end production of the risky player.

 

How do we know we're getting a .320 OBP out of Theriot?

[anabiono]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

 

lol...replaced with who?

 

fontenot?

[David]

My refuting your post about Cedeno's floor being relevant has nothing to do with baseball knowledge. Since we aren't picking one or the other to make the team, one is there to replace the other, if necessary. So if Cedeno sucks, you replace him with Theriot. Over the course of 1-2 months, the difference between Cedeno's floor and Theriot isn't going to cost you many wins. So his floor has limited relevance to a discussion of which one to start, whereas the fact that his ceiling is much higher is very relevant since the difference could have a significant effect on the # of runs we score.

 

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

 

 

This just isn't true. There most certainly is such a thing as a ceiling and a floor. When projecting a player's production, there has to be some range within which you can reasonably expect that player to perform. Unless you think attempting to project performance and making decisions based on said projections has no place in rational baseball discussion, that is.

[CubinNY]

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

 

Just because you say it doesn't, doesn't make it true. There is definite merit to compare a low-risk, low-reward player to a high-risk, high-reward player. If you know you are getting between a .320 OBP and a .340 OBP with one player, but the other player could give you between a .290 OBP and a .360 OBP, it's worth considering the safer player, especially if you can't afford the low-end production of the risky player.

I'll accept that if you can assure me or anyone what the ranges will be. Because no one can know the future, talk of ceiling and floor is vacuous. It's what people say when they want to sound smart.

[bukie]

i think it's funny that people here assume that it's impossible for theriot to be as bad as cedeno was in 2006.

 

Granted, nothing is impossible, but it's improbable. It's also improbable for Cedeno to be as bad as Cedeno was in 2006. If either is that bad, there's plenty of chance to switch to the other after a month or two, but in a year where a game or two can be the difference between winning the division and missing the playoffs, it's not an absurd position to go with the safer bet.

[CubinNY]

i think it's funny that people here assume that it's impossible for theriot to be as bad as cedeno was in 2006.

 

Granted, nothing is impossible, but it's improbable. It's also improbable for Cedeno to be as bad as Cedeno was in 2006. If either is that bad, there's plenty of chance to switch to the other after a month or two, but in a year where a game or two can be the difference between winning the division and missing the playoffs, it's not an absurd position to go with the safer bet.

The safer bet for what?

[jersey cubs fan]

do you recall that the cubs went into the last weekend of 2007 without having the division locked up? we won 85 games and took the back door into the playoffs because milwaukee crapped the bed at the end of the year. they have a lot of good young players, and might be a few games better this year. losing a game or two because of poor personnel decisions could cost the cubs a spot in the playoffs.

Floor and ceiling talk is nonsensical. It's meaningless scoutspeak and has no place in a rational baseball discussion. If either one or both of those two are playing poorly they should be replaced. It doesn't matter if its .290 OBP vs. 270 OBP or whatever numbers one wants to use.

 

Just because you say it doesn't, doesn't make it true. There is definite merit to compare a low-risk, low-reward player to a high-risk, high-reward player. If you know you are getting between a .320 OBP and a .340 OBP with one player, but the other player could give you between a .290 OBP and a .360 OBP, it's worth considering the safer player, especially if you can't afford the low-end production of the risky player.

 

I don't get this line of thinking. Why would anybody want to lock-in mediocrity and forego the opportunity to achieve real success? The goal is a championship. I could see, maybe, if this was a 50% of the league gets in the postseason type of sport where maybe, possibly, that approach might make some sense. But it's hard to make the baseball postseason, even if you are in the weaker league. Plus, while OBP is important, it is not the only thing. Cedeno offers the higher upside in every meaningful aspect of the game.

[Abe Frohman]

I was very impressed with Ronny's 2005 - because he was hitting the ball. He was hot at the right time, and showed us what he could do. What he can't do, or what he hasn't done, is reinvent his approach at the plate.

 

In 2006, he became the starting SS for the Cubs following a .355/.403/.921 year in AAA. It seemed that Cedeno had nothing to prove on the farm, but the guy was only 22 years old and had a MISERABLE season at the plate. I find it kind of baffling, but it seems that Ronny really can hit in the state of Iowa, and no where else. His minor league career outside of AAA hasn't really been that impressive (statwise) outside of Rookie ball in the AZL.

 

In my opinion, Cedeno's success in AAA is a curse for him. In his entire Minor League career (which did start at a very young 18), Cedeno has a cumulative .276/.323/.718 - which isn't bad until you consider that the numbers are that high because of his awesome production in AAA. The point is not that Cedeno had flukish campaigns in AAA, but that underneath those inflated numbers you still have to notice that the guy isn't going to walk a lot (141 times in 2205 PA), but he will strike out quite a bit (382).

 

I hope he is not traded, unless it is for a good, young SS. I do hope he can change his approach at the plate and increase his patience a bit. Doesn't seem our farm was in that frame of mind a few years ago.

[TruffleShuffle]

i think it's funny that people here assume that it's impossible for theriot to be as bad as cedeno was in 2006.

 

given theriot's skill set, i think it's very, very unlikely that he'd be one of the five worst offensive players in the game over the course of a year.

[Derwood]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

[TruffleShuffle]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

[Tracer Bullet]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

 

not nearly as sick as I am of hearing about how horrible Ronny is and how he can't hit ML pitching, without the caveat that he was 23 freaking years old.