Homeruns or OBP?

[seanimal]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

 

the only issue i have with this - and a very minor one indeed - is that the hr guy's run production isn't based on PA's, it's based on games played. I guess we could assume an average season or whatever, I dunno, I'll inquire further, but I'm pretty sure the HR guy would produce well over 106 runs, but perhaps not more than the walks produce.

 

The basic idea behind Mr. HR is that he hits one HR per game. He stays in the entire game though. He might get 4 AB's or 6 AB's if it goes extra. But every other at bat that he has he makes an out. When I was having this argument with my friends I just always assumed those outs came as a strikeout.

 

So by the end of the year the guy would have 162 homeruns (one per game played), and who knows how many RBI's, because you wouldn't be able to decide when to hit a homerun. I guess that opens up the question as to where you would bat a guy like that.

 

Well I was using the data that Nilo gave us from The Book, which said that the average run value of a HR was 1.397 which I just simply multiplied by 162 and got 226, which is less than the 231 that Meph says the OBP guy makes. Personally, I'm still trying to figure out his methodology before I go back and tell him that I think he's shorting the HR guy 120 runs.

[fromthestretch]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

 

the only issue i have with this - and a very minor one indeed - is that the hr guy's run production isn't based on PA's, it's based on games played. I guess we could assume an average season or whatever, I dunno, I'll inquire further, but I'm pretty sure the HR guy would produce well over 106 runs, but perhaps not more than the walks produce.

 

The basic idea behind Mr. HR is that he hits one HR per game. He stays in the entire game though. He might get 4 AB's or 6 AB's if it goes extra. But every other at bat that he has he makes an out. When I was having this argument with my friends I just always assumed those outs came as a strikeout.

 

So by the end of the year the guy would have 162 homeruns (one per game played), and who knows how many RBI's, because you wouldn't be able to decide when to hit a homerun. I guess that opens up the question as to where you would bat a guy like that.

 

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if homerun guy hits his homer early in the game, can't you just take him out and replace him with someone else? If he's guaranteed to get out in the rest of his plate appearances that game, you're better off replacing him after he hits that homerun.

[JoshiQ]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

 

the only issue i have with this - and a very minor one indeed - is that the hr guy's run production isn't based on PA's, it's based on games played. I guess we could assume an average season or whatever, I dunno, I'll inquire further, but I'm pretty sure the HR guy would produce well over 106 runs, but perhaps not more than the walks produce.

 

The basic idea behind Mr. HR is that he hits one HR per game. He stays in the entire game though. He might get 4 AB's or 6 AB's if it goes extra. But every other at bat that he has he makes an out. When I was having this argument with my friends I just always assumed those outs came as a strikeout.

 

So by the end of the year the guy would have 162 homeruns (one per game played), and who knows how many RBI's, because you wouldn't be able to decide when to hit a homerun. I guess that opens up the question as to where you would bat a guy like that.

 

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if homerun guy hits his homer early in the game, can't you just take him out and replace him with someone else? If he's guaranteed to get out in the rest of his plate appearances that game, you're better off replacing him after he hits that homerun.

 

"And I don't want any "Well, I'd sit the homerun guy until the bases are loaded, pinch hit and then immediately sub him." Pretend like you have to keep both guys in the whole game."

 

From the first post of the thread. :)

[fromthestretch]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

 

the only issue i have with this - and a very minor one indeed - is that the hr guy's run production isn't based on PA's, it's based on games played. I guess we could assume an average season or whatever, I dunno, I'll inquire further, but I'm pretty sure the HR guy would produce well over 106 runs, but perhaps not more than the walks produce.

 

The basic idea behind Mr. HR is that he hits one HR per game. He stays in the entire game though. He might get 4 AB's or 6 AB's if it goes extra. But every other at bat that he has he makes an out. When I was having this argument with my friends I just always assumed those outs came as a strikeout.

 

So by the end of the year the guy would have 162 homeruns (one per game played), and who knows how many RBI's, because you wouldn't be able to decide when to hit a homerun. I guess that opens up the question as to where you would bat a guy like that.

 

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if homerun guy hits his homer early in the game, can't you just take him out and replace him with someone else? If he's guaranteed to get out in the rest of his plate appearances that game, you're better off replacing him after he hits that homerun.

 

"And I don't want any "Well, I'd sit the homerun guy until the bases are loaded, pinch hit and then immediately sub him." Pretend like you have to keep both guys in the whole game."

 

From the first post of the thread. :)

 

My mistake. Guess I missed that part.

[Tracer Bullet]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if homerun guy hits his homer early in the game, can't you just take him out and replace him with someone else? If he's guaranteed to get out in the rest of his plate appearances that game, you're better off replacing him after he hits that homerun.

 

"And I don't want any "Well, I'd sit the homerun guy until the bases are loaded, pinch hit and then immediately sub him." Pretend like you have to keep both guys in the whole game."

 

From the first post of the thread. :)

 

My mistake. Guess I missed that part.

 

As one of my law school prof's always said before exam time "don't fight the hypo."