End of February Rankings

[Mephistopheles]

There's actually very little statistical analysis in this. In other words I made educated projections that are sabermetrically inclined.

 

1. Boston Red Sox*

2. New York Derek Jeters*

3. Cleveland Indians*

4. Los Angeles Angels*

5. Toronto Blue Jays

6. Seattle Mariners

7. Detroit Tigers

8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

9. Kansas City Royals

10. Chicago White Sox

11. Oakland Athletics

12. Minnesota Twins

13. Texas Rangers

14. Baltimore Orioles

 

1. New York Mets*

2. Atlanta Braves*

3. Chicago Cubs*

4. Philadelphia Phillies

5. San Diego Padres*

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

7. Arizona Diamondbacks

8. Milwaukee Brewers

9. Cincinnati Reds

10. Colorado Rockies

11. Houston Astros

12. St. Louis Cardinals

13. Pittsburgh Pirates

14. Florida Marlins

15. Washington Nationals

16. San Francisco Giants

 

*Playoff teams

 

Cubs vs Braves - Cubs

Padres vs Mets - Mets

Indians vs Yankees - Yankees

Red Sox vs Angels - Red Sox

 

Red Sox vs Yankees - Red Sox

Mets vs Cubs - Mets

 

Red Sox vs Mets - Red Sox

 

AL MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Ortiz

3. Grady Sizemore

4. Vladimir Guerrero

5. Travis Hafner

 

AL Cy Young

1. Roy Halladay

2. Josh Beckett

3. Felix Hernandez

 

NL MVP

1. David Wright

2. Ryan Howard

3. Carlos Beltran

4. Mark Teixeira

5. Hanley Ramirez

 

NL Cy Young

1. Jake Peavy

2. Johan Santana

3. Roy Oswalt

4. Brandon Webb

5. Rich Hill

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't think i could stand a red sox-mets world series. wonder if they'd show the buckner play at all?

 

what is it about the tigers that doesn't impress you? their lineup is rather beastly. and the pitching should be pretty solid.

 

i find it hard to believe that one out of (red sox, yankees, tigers, indians) has to miss the playoffs. all those teams would seem to be a shoo-in if they played in the NL.

[Mephistopheles]

granderson overproduced

ordonez overproduced

guillen's glass

rentawreck overproduced

rodriguez blows

vina overproduced

sheffield's glass

 

bonderman sucks

willis sucks

rogers sucks

robertson sucks

verlander's going to break down

 

zumaya's out

jones sucks

rodney's hurt

[UMFan83]

I tend to agree with you about the Tigers.

[seanimal]

and, Cleveland is awesome.

 

I hope my family gets playoff tickets this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

granderson overproduced - probably a little, but he's still very good.

ordonez overproduced - hard to disagree here

guillen's glass - he's stayed relatively healthy the last two years. might do it again this year, who knows though.

rentawreck overproduced - no doubt, but he's still a good hitter for a SS

rodriguez blows - yup, why the crap did the tigers pick up his option this year?

vina overproduced - I'm assuming you mean polanco. True, but again, he's a pretty good hitter.

sheffield's glass - if his wrist is okay, i'd expect 140 games out of him.

 

bonderman sucks - this one i don't get. you said that a lot of guys overproduced, which was pretty true, but last year bonderman was worse than his previous 4 years. i'd argue that he underproduced. i don't think he sucks.

 

willis sucks - again, he's not great, but he's probably better than he pitched last year. i'd expect him to at least bounce back some and be a solid #3, if healthy.

 

rogers sucks - depends if he has anything left, he was at least a good #4 in his later years, if not more than that.

robertson sucks - he's a solid back of the rotation guy. doesn't suck like a lot of #4/5 guys suck.

verlander's going to break down - people have been saying this for 3 years now. maybe it'll happen, but i'm not sure how people can keep saying with confidence that he's going to break down.

 

jones sucks - yes.

[seanimal]

willis sucks - again, he's not great, but he's probably better than he pitched last year. i'd expect him to at least bounce back some and be a solid #3, if healthy.

 

except he's switching leagues, and not in a ted lilly kind of way. and one of the things that makes his so-so pitching palatable - his hitting - is taken away from him in the league switch.

[Mephistopheles]

bonderman has a career 5.16 ra, he had a 5.42 ra last season - well within one standard deviation for ra.

[TruffleShuffle]

bonderman has a career 5.16 ra, he had a 5.42 ra last season - well within one standard deviation for ra.

 

take out his rookie year, when he was 20 and his team was God-awful, and he's been around league-average for WHIP and ERA+. if that sucks, then half the league sucks.

[Mephistopheles]

since youre one of those people who thinks era means something:

 

which one is out of the ordinary?

 

2004 91

2005 93

2006 112

2007 91

[TruffleShuffle]

since youre one of those people who thinks era means something:

 

which one is out of the ordinary?

 

2004 91

2005 93

2006 112

2007 91

 

wait so you are saying that era is a meaningless stat, after citing runs allowed for why bonderman sucks? FTH?!?!?

 

anyway, i would like to see the proof that he sucks. his BB/9 has been below league average the past three years, his K/9 is above average, his HR/9 is near the league average. his xFIP the past four years has been:

 

2004: 4.15

2005: 4.10

2006: 3.68

2007: 3.99

 

and his FIP minus ERA has been solidly between -0.6 and -0.8 over the past four years, so he's been consistently boned over by bad defense behind him. his PECOTA-projected ERA is 4.00 this year. so please, show me how it is that he sucks. because from all the numbers that I'm seeing, he's at least a league-average pitcher, and once you take out the lousy fielding and bad luck, he's probably better than average.

[Mephistopheles]

i used it because you go gaga for era.

 

oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA.

 

until he learns not to fold it in with base runners on, he's never going to be consistent enough to be anything better than your middle to back end of the rotation fodder. His walk rate nearly doubles with runners in scoring position. That .312 BABIP for his career is legitimate. His profile fits an above 300 BABIP pitcher for the most part.

 

He's not getting "boned" by bad defense consistently. He consistently hangs sliders in the middle of the plate that get hammered and he's an above average groundball pitcher. Those two combine for an above average BABIP for him on a consistent basis. It's not an accident. Then he complicates matters by struggling a bit with runners on.

[TruffleShuffle]

i used it because you go gaga for era.

 

oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA.

 

xFIP versus ERA, 2007:

Bonderman: 5.01 ERA, 3.99 xFIP

Verlander: 3.66 ERA, 4.38 xFIP

Robertson: 4.76 ERA, 4.80 xFIP

Durbin: 4.72 ERA, 5.44 xFIP

Maroth: 5.06 ERA, 5.84 xFIP

Rogers: 4.43 ERA, 4.81 xFIP

Miller: 5.63 ERA, 5.08 xFIP

 

2006:

Bonderman: 4.08 ERA, 3.68 xFIP

Verlander: 3.63 ERA, 4.67 xFIP

Robertson: 3.84 ERA, 4.64 xFIP

Rogers: 3.84 ERA, 4.92 xFIP

Miner: 4.84 ERA, 4.61 xFIP

Maroth: 4.19 ERA, 5.48 xFIP

 

 

apparently the whole comerica lowering the xFIP thing only works if your name is bonderman. strange.

[Mephistopheles]

ugh, you just don't get it.

 

you have no idea what the hell xFIP is and it shows. Since you don't know what is I am going to have to take away your privilege of using it.

[sneakypower]

bonderman's problem is the 1st inning. he's the new john burkett.

[TruffleShuffle]

until he learns not to fold it in with base runners on, he's never going to be consistent enough to be anything better than your middle to back end of the rotation fodder. His walk rate nearly doubles with runners in scoring position. That .312 BABIP for his career is legitimate. His profile fits an above 300 BABIP pitcher for the most part.

 

He's not getting "boned" by bad defense consistently. He consistently hangs sliders in the middle of the plate that get hammered and he's an above average groundball pitcher. Those two combine for an above average BABIP for him on a consistent basis. It's not an accident. Then he complicates matters by struggling a bit with runners on.

 

right, and even if he is a guy who is going to have a high babip against, he's still a league-average pitcher. if you want to say that half the league sucks, that's fine, but i have to disagree with that. he was pitching pretty well (3.50 ERA - uh oh there's that stat again!) until he tired and started having some elbow woes the last month and a half of 2007.

 

his biggest struggles seem to be with runners on, and pitching to the hitter leading off an inning. basically, he pitches his worst when it hurts him the most. it's not unreasonable to say that a young guy can improve in this department, and if he does, then you're looking at a pitcher who's solidly above average. he is only 25 after all. if he has a bad year this year, i'd expect it to be because the tigers put too much mileage on his arm over the past few years, not because "he sucks."

[TruffleShuffle]

ugh, you just don't get it.

 

you have no idea what the hell xFIP is and it shows. Since you don't know what is I am going to have to take away your privilege of using it.

 

 

Meph: oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA.

TruffleShuffle:

Meph:

[Mephistopheles]

ugh, you just don't get it.

 

you have no idea what the hell xFIP is and it shows. Since you don't know what is I am going to have to take away your privilege of using it.

 

 

Meph: oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA.

TruffleShuffle:

Meph:

 

I didnt change the subject. The rest of the team's xFIP is not in question.

[TruffleShuffle]

ugh, you just don't get it.

 

you have no idea what the hell xFIP is and it shows. Since you don't know what is I am going to have to take away your privilege of using it.

 

 

Meph: oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA.

TruffleShuffle:

Meph:

 

I didnt change the subject. The rest of the team's xFIP is not in question.

 

what exactly was your point then? you certainly seemed to be suggesting that it was natural that bonderman's xFIP was going to be low, because he plays his home games at Comerica. Now, why would Comerica have a positive effect on his xFIP, but no expected effect (or perhaps a negative effect) on the staff's other starters?

[Mephistopheles]

maybe the question you should be asking yourself is why do the other starters on the Tigers have BABIPs under control yet Bonderman doesn't. Why is he plagued by bad defense and the others aren't?

 

when you answer that question ill answer yours.

[TruffleShuffle]

maybe the question you should be asking yourself is why do the other starters on the Tigers have BABIPs under control yet Bonderman doesn't. Why is he plagued by bad defense and the others aren't?

 

when you answer that question ill answer yours.

 

not sure. relies too heavily on his fastball? i see that his LD% was fairly high (19.3, 19.6%) the last two years, but in 2007 it was just 17.6%. but his LOB% was very bad (65%).

 

so i dunno. his history suggests that he struggles when pitching from the stretch, and from what i have seen, he has a fastball and a good slider, but not much else. so many that is why.

 

that being said, he doesn't suck.