Nate Silver's thoughts on back end of Cubs rotation

[CubColtPacer]

For those who don't know, Nate Silver is the primary person who does the PECOTA computer projections. The PECOTA cards should be out soon (within the next week) but I found a question at the bottom of a recent Q&A with him about the Cubs?

 

The back end of the Cubs rotation... You have two duds (Marquis, Dempster), the aging prodigal son (Lieber) , the youngster in Lou's doghouse (Marshall), and the unproven guys (Gallagher, Kevin Hart, maybe even Neil Cotts or Samardjiza but unlikely). Who should win and who will win out the last two spots?

 

Nate Silver: First, let's take Jeff Samardjiza out of the discussion. He's more likely to be the Bears' flanker next year than the Cubs' fifth starter. Out of that group, I actually sort of like Ryan Dempster, and I think Jon Lieber should be perfectly adequate.

 

Lieber I expected, but Dempster? I found that very interesting. It should be something that is kept in mind when the PECOTAs come out.

 

Note: I am in no way advocating Dempster for the rotation, so I hope nobody misinterprets this post as that. Here's the link:

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=410

[anabiono]

dempster starting...lol

 

has this guy ever watched him pitch in an actual game?

[Proven Veteran]

dempster starting...lol

 

has this guy ever watched him pitch in an actual game?

 

No, he just sits in his basement stroking the PECOTA computer.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

dempster starting...lol

 

has this guy ever watched him pitch in an actual game?

 

I'm sure he has watched quit a few Cubs games, which is why Marquis isn't in his rotation.

[seanimal]

f pecota. I predict that if Ryan Dempster starts baseball games as a pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, he will have a Ryan Dempster-ish year. Comparables: Ryan Dempster, Matt Clement.

 

His stat line will be: generally underwhelming/prone to ridicule

[nilodnayr]

f pecota. I predict that if Ryan Dempster starts baseball games as a pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, he will have a Ryan Dempster-ish year. Comparables: Ryan Dempster, Matt Clement.

 

His stat line will be: generally underwhelming/prone to ridicule

How close is Ryan Dempsters comparability score to Ryan Demspter?

[cheapseats]

Zips doesn't project Dempster to be much worse as a starter than Marshall, but then again, Zips doesn't particularly like Marshall.

 

Edit:

 

I really wouldn't mind Dempster as a spot-starter against righty-leaning lineups like the Brewers or Pirates (or Cubs).

Edited January 25, 2008 by cheapseats

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

f pecota.

 

The day will come. The day will come.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21271545/

[AlwaysaCub]

That was my question. I was kinda disappointed he didn't go into more detail though. It seemed like he picked it to answer to sway our thinking about Samardjiza, but I threw that in there just to make a point that nothing is set in stone. It would have been nice if he elaborated on *why* he likes Dempster, but it was the last question answered in the chat.

[Derwood]

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/images/cards/16437.jpg

[Post Count Padder]

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/images/cards/16437.jpg

The man who defeated David Glass.

[BCVM22]

The man who defeated David Glass.

 

But hasn't been seen since. :(

 

Do you suppose the PECOTA is still out there? Somewhere?

[Post Count Padder]

The man who defeated David Glass.

 

But hasn't been seen since. :(

 

Do you suppose the PECOTA is still out there? Somewhere?

I like to think so. He's in a great place where he can freely ride his motorcycle while encouraging young ballplayers.