Can someone explain 2nd and 3rd order pythag W-L?

[third eye]

I saw on another site (ESPN.com, I think) that the Cubs were only around .513 in 3rd order. Why is that? I would've expected their actual record to be below every predictive metric out there. I don't have access to all of the BP info. Thanks.

[Rob]

First order is just based off runs scored and runs allowed. Second order is based off Equivalent Runs and Equivalent Runs Allowed, which are simply the predicted runs scored and allowed based on batting lines. Third order is based off Equivalent Runs and Equivalent Runs Allowed, but adjusted for the quality of the opponents' hitting and pitching.

 

I could be a bit off on all of this, but it's a good groundwork for Meph to correct later.

[third eye]

ah, makes sense given the Cubs crappy opponents in the central.