a modest stat critique

[jjgman21]

this is completely observational and not meant as a serious critique, but I think it raises an interesting point.

 

one normalizing stat we have all become comfortable with, wrongly or rightly, is OPS+. it seems to make alot of sense to many to adjust stats to account for the competition and the effect a home park has on creation and prevention of runs.

 

one thing that Cub fans are generally aware of is that the park effect of Wrigley is usually dependent on the wind. sure, a little bit of foul territory is now seats as compared with the past and there might be a slightly different height to the grass, but conventional wisdom is that the real effect of Wrigley is whether the wind turns HRs into cans o' corn, or Russell Branyan pop ups into basket shots. these seem to me to be the three primary factors that would go into the effect most parks would have, with some parks having different #1 factors than wind (ie. humidity in AZ and Col, marine layer in Cali).

 

we have just seen one of the flukiest years in Wrigley history. as usual, the wind almost always blew in in April and May, but on those hot and humid days where we are all accustomed to gails blowing out to left or center, the wind has blown in, for whatever reason. not sure if there are any 'wind in/wind out' sources to back this up, just seems that way. perhaps Truff has a comment on whether my observations match up with actual weather patterns.

 

so if the wind has been blowing in at a higher rate this year than in years past, how on earth is Wrigley's park factor favoring offense? shouldn't the park effect stat jibe up with the phenomena that is the primary factor going into determining park effect? and if doesn't, shouldn't we question any stat that normalizes based on park factors determined purely by statistical analysis as there may be sample size issues or some variable missing from the equation? or is it just a case of observation and conventional wisdom being incorrect?

[Derwood]

is "park factor" based on weather/elevation/etc. or is it simply based on years of statistics (vs. other ballparks)?

[CuseCubFan69]

I think there's a plethora of data that be included to these ballpark stats that isn't. I don't like those one season broad based numbers. The elements, especially in Wrigley and SF change so much wind wise and others maybe with rain. Add to that the pitchers and hitters and who plays when and how. Just too many unknown variables for me. Edited September 20, 2007 by CuseCubFan69

[woodchip2153]

This is about Home Run Park Factor, but I think it is still kind of on topic.

[Sammy Sofa]

I blame El Nino.

 

Which is spanish for..."THE NINO!"

 

http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Boulevard/7384/elnino2.jpg

[hardcorecubfan]

I blame El Nino.

 

Which is spanish for..."THE NINO!"

 

http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Boulevard/7384/elnino2.jpg

 

thanks I needed that laugh

[Derwood]

is park adjusted OPS+ only adjusted for the player's home park?

[nilodnayr]

Season by season park adjustments are horrible. I'm sure there have been many articles on this, but if you look year to year, they are quite variable. And not just for wrigley, where wind is a determining factor, or parks that move fences, but for pretty much every park.