on Geo Soto

[dew1679666265]

i doubt soto gets a chance this year, but there's no reason he shouldn't be the opening day catcher in 08.

 

I'd be fine with that if no better catcher comes available in the offseason. Not sure what the catching free agent crop looks like, or if there will be any quality available through trades, and if not I'm all for starting Soto next year.

[sethuel1]

Ask Koyie Hill what the difference is between AAA pitching (.325 average) and big league pitching (.173 or so). Why would Soto be different?

 

So a guy has to hit .425 at AAA to be a .273 hitter at the MLB level?

yes

[Magnetic Curses]

i doubt soto gets a chance this year, but there's no reason he shouldn't be the opening day catcher in 08.

 

I'd be fine with that if no better catcher comes available in the offseason. Not sure what the catching free agent crop looks like, or if there will be any quality available through trades, and if not I'm all for starting Soto next year.

 

if soto can at all be serviceable behind the plate, he provides the ability to upgrade that offense at other positions through free agency.

 

i'd like to see soto at C, theriot at SS, and Pie in CF. derosa would be playing his best position, and we'd have a big bat in right. oh yeah, plus we get z back for another 5 years.

[dew1679666265]

i doubt soto gets a chance this year, but there's no reason he shouldn't be the opening day catcher in 08.

 

I'd be fine with that if no better catcher comes available in the offseason. Not sure what the catching free agent crop looks like, or if there will be any quality available through trades, and if not I'm all for starting Soto next year.

 

if soto can at all be serviceable behind the plate, he provides the ability to upgrade that offense at other positions through free agency.

 

i'd like to see soto at C, theriot at SS, and Pie in CF. derosa would be playing his best position, and we'd have a big bat in right. oh yeah, plus we get z back for another 5 years.

 

That works. My point was, if a Posada-type (not many of those) come available in the offseason, I definitely am interested, but I wouldn't be actively seeking any catcher available.

[Magnetic Curses]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

[Productive Outs]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

[dew1679666265]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

I like that idea quite a bit. I think we obviously need an offensive upgrade somewhere, though exactly where just depends on who is truly available.

 

I wouldn't go after Posada if he was looking for more than a couple years, irregardless of money. I just don't want to completely rule out catcher as an upgradeable position.

[UBlink]

 

The fact that everyone is hitting well in the PCL makes me think the pitching is a little (or a lot) down this year - not so much park factors. It may just be coincedence that Soto's breakout year is coming when many other players are hitting above their averages, but the correlation concerns me quite a bit.

 

 

It's not just the raw numbers Soto is posting. Relative to the rest of the PCL he is (before tonight when he went 2-3 with 2 BB's) #1 in avg, #2 in OBP, #1 in Slg, and #1 in OPS. The other names you see at the top of these lists (Jason Botts, Delwyn Young, Joe Dillon), have all been promoted. Is the offense of the Cubs so much better that they don't need the best hitter in the PCL?

[dew1679666265]

 

The fact that everyone is hitting well in the PCL makes me think the pitching is a little (or a lot) down this year - not so much park factors. It may just be coincedence that Soto's breakout year is coming when many other players are hitting above their averages, but the correlation concerns me quite a bit.

 

 

It's not just the raw numbers Soto is posting. Relative to the rest of the PCL he is (before tonight when he went 2-3 with 2 BB's) #1 in avg, #2 in OBP, #1 in Slg, and #1 in OPS. The other names you see at the top of these lists (Jason Botts, Delwyn Young, Joe Dillon), have all been promoted. Is the offense of the Cubs so much better that they don't need the best hitter in the PCL?

 

I've said a few times that I'm all for Soto replacing K. Hill and his starts. The thing that concerns me is handing him the overall starting job when he's been a mediocre offensive catcher his entire minor league career - save this one.

 

If he hits well in K. Hill's spot, I would give him progressively more starting time over Kendall. I'm just not comfortable handing him the starting job when Kendall is showing signs of life offensively.

[Magnetic Curses]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

 

if it's a dealbreaker, i let andruw play where he wants to play.

[dew1679666265]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

 

if it's a dealbreaker, i let andruw play where he wants to play.

 

I've never heard Andruw say one way or another where he wants to play. The likelihood is, the question has never come up because few teams have a comparable defensive CF to Andruw.

[Magnetic Curses]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

 

if it's a dealbreaker, i let andruw play where he wants to play.

 

I've never heard Andruw say one way or another where he wants to play. The likelihood is, the question has never come up because few teams have a comparable defensive CF to Andruw.

 

it'd be hard to move one of the top defensive CF's in the game to a different position--plus he's in the prime of his career.

[dew1679666265]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

 

if it's a dealbreaker, i let andruw play where he wants to play.

 

I've never heard Andruw say one way or another where he wants to play. The likelihood is, the question has never come up because few teams have a comparable defensive CF to Andruw.

 

it'd be hard to move one of the top defensive CF's in the game to a different position--plus he's in the prime of his career.

 

Yeah, there's a good chance he wouldn't want to move from center, I was just noting that I had never heard him say one way or the other. Either way, a defensive outfield including Pie and Andruw would be incredible - no matter where the two played or who was the leftfielder.

[Productive Outs]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

 

if it's a dealbreaker, i let andruw play where he wants to play.

 

I've never heard Andruw say one way or another where he wants to play. The likelihood is, the question has never come up because few teams have a comparable defensive CF to Andruw.

 

it'd be hard to move one of the top defensive CF's in the game to a different position--plus he's in the prime of his career.

 

he is not one of the top defensive center fielders any more. he's went down a lot in the past few years.

[jjgman21]

Geo and his possible contributions to the Cubs has been touched on in several threads, so I thought I would start this thread to focus on the discussions surrounding the potential for Soto to help both this year and in the future.

 

there is no doubt the raw numbers of Soto are impressive, yet there have been lots of out of hand dismissals to whether Soto could contribute at an acceptable level or be a long term solution. they generally fall into three arguments: see Ronnie Cedeno; the PCL is very hitter friendly this year; the projections all show he wouldn't be good. now I don't know whether Soto will be able to hit at an acceptable level, but these three arguments are lacking in merit at this point.

 

For me, it's not out of hand dismissals of his ability to help us this year or next. I fully admit he could come to the majors and hit as well as he currently is. Problem is, there's enough evidence against him to make me very concerned.

 

I bring the Ronny Cedeno case up only because he is another player who's never been well known for his bat either in the minors or majors and is all of a sudden hitting well in Iowa. Sure, Soto is a different player and could very well hit well, but there are enough similarities to make me concerned.

 

The fact that everyone is hitting well in the PCL makes me think the pitching is a little (or a lot) down this year - not so much park factors. It may just be coincedence that Soto's breakout year is coming when many other players are hitting above their averages, but the correlation concerns me quite a bit.

 

 

 

 

other than the vast generalization you make in the second paragraph, there are really very few similarities. sure there are alot of Cedenos and Duboises, but there is also alot of Posadas, who had OPS of 714, 785, and 865 in the three years he spent at AAA, or Chris Duncans who never hit for crap unless repeating a level, then suddenly went from an OPS of 807 in the PCL to an OPS of 952 in the majors.

 

most minor leaguers don't make it at the major league level, so it's easy to say 'chances are he won't hit at the ML level.' that doesn't change the fact that dismissing Soto due to Cedeno is a weak argument. you have to look at other things.

 

did Cedeno have patience throughout his minor league career? no, not really. did Cedeno show the ability to hit for power in his minor league career? no, not really, not even in his 'breakout' year of 2005. was there any sudden change in the way the ball left his bat? I don't have the stats other than for 2005, but I am guessing not to the extent that we have seen the past two years from Soto since Ronnie's gb/ld/fb ratio was 57/11/34 (total 102 b/c of rounding, also note that 6.8% of his balls in play were pop ups, so his flyball to the outfield percentage was actually 27%).

 

thanks for your reply, but you really added nothing other than a better articulated version of 'Soto won't succeed because Cedeno didn't succeed.' and the only reason he's doing well is because of the PCL.'

[dew1679666265]

Geo and his possible contributions to the Cubs has been touched on in several threads, so I thought I would start this thread to focus on the discussions surrounding the potential for Soto to help both this year and in the future.

 

there is no doubt the raw numbers of Soto are impressive, yet there have been lots of out of hand dismissals to whether Soto could contribute at an acceptable level or be a long term solution. they generally fall into three arguments: see Ronnie Cedeno; the PCL is very hitter friendly this year; the projections all show he wouldn't be good. now I don't know whether Soto will be able to hit at an acceptable level, but these three arguments are lacking in merit at this point.

 

For me, it's not out of hand dismissals of his ability to help us this year or next. I fully admit he could come to the majors and hit as well as he currently is. Problem is, there's enough evidence against him to make me very concerned.

 

I bring the Ronny Cedeno case up only because he is another player who's never been well known for his bat either in the minors or majors and is all of a sudden hitting well in Iowa. Sure, Soto is a different player and could very well hit well, but there are enough similarities to make me concerned.

 

The fact that everyone is hitting well in the PCL makes me think the pitching is a little (or a lot) down this year - not so much park factors. It may just be coincedence that Soto's breakout year is coming when many other players are hitting above their averages, but the correlation concerns me quite a bit.

 

 

 

 

other than the vast generalization you make in the second paragraph, there are really very few similarities. sure there are alot of Cedenos and Duboises, but there is also alot of Posadas, who had OPS of 714, 785, and 865 in the three years he spent at AAA, or Chris Duncans who never hit for crap unless repeating a level, then suddenly went from an OPS of 807 in the PCL to an OPS of 952 in the majors.

 

most minor leaguers don't make it at the major league level, so it's easy to say 'chances are he won't hit at the ML level.' that doesn't change the fact that dismissing Soto due to Cedeno is a weak argument. you have to look at other things.

 

did Cedeno have patience throughout his minor league career? no, not really. did Cedeno show the ability to hit for power in his minor league career? no, not really, not even in his 'breakout' year of 2005. was there any sudden change in the way the ball left his bat? I don't have the stats other than for 2005, but I am guessing not to the extent that we have seen the past two years from Soto since Ronnie's gb/ld/fb ratio was 57/11/34 (total 102 b/c of rounding, also note that 6.8% of his balls in play were pop ups, so his flyball to the outfield percentage was actually 27%).

 

thanks for your reply, but you really added nothing other than a better articulated version of 'Soto won't succeed because Cedeno didn't succeed.' and the only reason he's doing well is because of the PCL.'

 

First off, where did I say "Soto won't succeed?" Far as I can tell, nowhere.

 

I said, quite clearly I felt, that I had strong CONCERNS that because Soto has never really hit well in the minors that this season is an anomaly. I said multiple times that he very well could do great in the majors and could easily be one of the type players that do little in the minors and then do great in the majors.

 

I just struggle to accept a significantly better season than he's ever consistently put up as something reliable to count on and therefore enough to justify benching a player putting up a very nice OBP.

 

Also, if I were "dismissing" Soto, why in the world would I have said in the post that we should call him up and, if he performs in K. Hill's role, we should give him more playing time?

 

I'm open to him coming to the majors, I'm open to him earning a starting job. I think he may be capable of doing so. My primary concern, though, is that this year - due to a number of factors, ranging in importance - is not enough to rule out an entire career of mediocrity with the bat. But, the fact that he is even doing this is enough to warrant him replacing K. Hill and, if he proves he can perform at the major league level, taking more and more playing time from Kendall.

 

Now, exactly where in this post or any other am I dismissing Soto or saying he won't succeed?

[jjgman21]

 

First off, where did I say "Soto won't succeed?" Far as I can tell, nowhere.

 

I said, quite clearly I felt, that I had strong CONCERNS that because Soto has never really hit well in the minors that this season is an anomaly. I said multiple times that he very well could do great in the majors and could easily be one of the type players that do little in the minors and then do great in the majors.

 

I just struggle to accept a significantly better season than he's ever consistently put up as something reliable to count on and therefore enough to justify benching a player putting up a very nice OBP.

 

Also, if I were "dismissing" Soto, why in the world would I have said in the post that we should call him up and, if he performs in K. Hill's role, we should give him more playing time?

 

I'm open to him coming to the majors, I'm open to him earning a starting job. I think he may be capable of doing so. My primary concern, though, is that this year - due to a number of factors, ranging in importance - is not enough to rule out an entire career of mediocrity with the bat. But, the fact that he is even doing this is enough to warrant him replacing K. Hill and, if he proves he can perform at the major league level, taking more and more playing time from Kendall.

 

Now, exactly where in this post or any other am I dismissing Soto or saying he won't succeed?

 

perhaps it was my interpretation of the context of the statements that you made. seemed to me your first post in this thread was an admission of the dismissal of Soto based on Cedeno, only you insist that the Cedeno experience is a relevant basis on which to compare. statements like "struggle to accept," as well as other statements tend to make me believe you are in fact dismissing out of hand, regardless of caveats.

 

but you keep talking about factors and concerns, when you really need to eliminate the 's' on both those words, because you really insist on only one factor, one concern, that he doesn't have a history. that is why I laid out his history in the first post and some of the statitistical changes that have taken place since he started hitting well. going in circles like this doesn't really change what really appears to be a dismissal, only now with a caveat.

 

but whatever. bottom line, recall and play Soto, if for no other reason to find out if his play has been flukish or he is AAAA, because if they end up resigning Kendall thinking Soto won't cut it without ever even giving him a chance to prove it after the year of baseball he has put up, my head might explode.

[Guest]

Just because the PCL is a hitters league doesn't mean you dismiss a hitters numbers. You have to look at the player on a case by case level, seeing as they're not all the same, they don't have the same holes, weakness, strengths, etc.

 

Ryan Braun in the PCL: .342/.418/.701/1.119

Ryan Braun in the bigs: .347/.390/.664/1.054

[jjgman21]

Just because the PCL is a hitters league doesn't mean you dismiss a hitters numbers. You have to look at the player on a case by case level, seeing as they're not all the same, they don't have the same holes, weakness, strengths, etc.

 

Ryan Braun in the PCL: .342/.418/.701/1.119

Ryan Braun in the bigs: .347/.390/.664/1.054

 

 

that said, based on some of the things I explored in the first post, what would you expect from Soto if he were recalled or handed the job in spring? to me the turn around is undeniable.

[Balsa]

I am not one of them....but I bet part of the reason why some don't want Soto called up now is because he would have to learn the whole pitching staff "in the heat of the pennant race" or some BS like that.

 

Either that or he doesn't have enough "experience".

[Guest]

Just because the PCL is a hitters league doesn't mean you dismiss a hitters numbers. You have to look at the player on a case by case level, seeing as they're not all the same, they don't have the same holes, weakness, strengths, etc.

 

Ryan Braun in the PCL: .342/.418/.701/1.119

Ryan Braun in the bigs: .347/.390/.664/1.054

 

 

that said, based on some of the things I explored in the first post, what would you expect from Soto if he were recalled or handed the job in spring? to me the turn around is undeniable.

 

I wouldn't mind a 260/.300/.400 would be what I expect if he got regular playing time in his first extended playing time in the big leagues.

 

I am not one of them....but I bet part of the reason why some don't want Soto called up now is because he would have to learn the whole pitching staff "in the heat of the pennant race" or some BS like that.

 

Either that or he doesn't have enough "experience".

 

I know you're not one of them, but...he's caught Hill, Marshall and Marmol in the minors and he's caught guys like Z and Dempster a lot too since he's been one of the last catchers to report to the minors in spring training each of the last three seasons.

[jjgman21]

Just because the PCL is a hitters league doesn't mean you dismiss a hitters numbers. You have to look at the player on a case by case level, seeing as they're not all the same, they don't have the same holes, weakness, strengths, etc.

 

Ryan Braun in the PCL: .342/.418/.701/1.119

Ryan Braun in the bigs: .347/.390/.664/1.054

 

 

that said, based on some of the things I explored in the first post, what would you expect from Soto if he were recalled or handed the job in spring? to me the turn around is undeniable.

 

I wouldn't mind a 260/.300/.400 would be what I expect if he got regular playing time in his first extended playing time in the big leagues.

 

I am not one of them....but I bet part of the reason why some don't want Soto called up now is because he would have to learn the whole pitching staff "in the heat of the pennant race" or some BS like that.

 

Either that or he doesn't have enough "experience".

 

I know you're not one of them, but...he's caught Hill, Marshall and Marmol in the minors and he's caught guys like Z and Dempster a lot too since he's been one of the last catchers to report to the minors in spring training each of the last three seasons.

 

how about going beyond the numbers. what is it about Braun that allowed him to translate the numbers directly to the majors and what is it about Soto that would cause such a huge dropoff. in other words, what are Soto's holes, weaknesses, etc. and what indicators reveal said holes/weaknesses.

 

 

going further on the other part of this post, he's caught Wuertz alot too as evidenced by the debate that Sarcastic and I had a month ago. I imagine he and Ohman had some overlap in the minors. he's probably caught Wood quite a bit in ST and rehab outtings. really, the only pitchers in the entire system that Kendall and Hill have more experience with are Howry, Eyre, Marquis and Lilly.

 

as for playoff/pennant chase experience, Kendall and Hill have a combined, what, one pennant chase/playoff experience between them. I suppose Kendall was in one other unsuccessful pennant chase, falling out of the playoffs in the last week of the season after two months of being in first (not the experience I want). it's a groovy attempt at an explanation, but if Hendry or Lou came out and said that, it would truly be laughable.

[Magnetic Curses]

oh, that's true. although posada will be very expensive and is entering into his twilight, i'd be reticent to give him a big contract.

 

however, andruw jones in CF is intriguing, pushing pie to right, which would be fine.

 

soriano

theriot

lee

aram

a. jones

derosa

pie

soto

 

good lineup.

 

i would move andruw to RF before i'd move pie.

 

if it's a dealbreaker, i let andruw play where he wants to play.

 

I've never heard Andruw say one way or another where he wants to play. The likelihood is, the question has never come up because few teams have a comparable defensive CF to Andruw.

 

it'd be hard to move one of the top defensive CF's in the game to a different position--plus he's in the prime of his career.

 

he is not one of the top defensive center fielders any more. he's went down a lot in the past few years.

 

that may be true, but i'd still play him there.

[NewUserName]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

 

Really?

 

...really?

 

 

What I mean is if most teams had the Catching situation that the Cubs had they would have given Soto a shot by now. I am not saying Soto is one of the better Catchers in the league now.

 

As for the first part, I think this is pretty obvious.

 

Aren't Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot position players from our system and under 30 years old?

 

Sure, I'd like to see Soto up in place of K. Hill and would've been perfectly fine with sticking with Pie earlier this year, but to say we haven't had any position players from our system get a chance this year is wrong.

 

And before you say Fontenot is not from our system - he was a throw-in in the Sammy deal and was a nothing prospect and our system developed him into legit major league material. Therefore I think he counts as a Cub prospect.

 

 

Theriot is the only full time starter of the 2. I am willing to bet a donut that the Cubs will bring in a veteran SS this offseason. Even after his great September last season the Cubs brought in DeRossa to be the primary 2nd baseman. Also if Izturis was anywhere above really bad he would still be getting as much time at SS as Theriot. So he doesnt really count to counter my point.

 

I dont think Fontenot will be anything but a part time player on the Cubs. He is already behind DeRossa when the Cubs get a full time RFer.

[dew1679666265]

I dont think he is a future HOFer or anything but it is obvious that he couldnt do worse than what the Cubs are sending out there now. Sadly the Cubs have proven that they will not give position players from there organization a decent shot and will look for any over 30 name that they can come up with to be "insurance" for these guys.

 

Soto is already starting C on most teams in this league.

 

Really?

 

...really?

 

 

What I mean is if most teams had the Catching situation that the Cubs had they would have given Soto a shot by now. I am not saying Soto is one of the better Catchers in the league now.

 

As for the first part, I think this is pretty obvious.

 

Aren't Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot position players from our system and under 30 years old?

 

Sure, I'd like to see Soto up in place of K. Hill and would've been perfectly fine with sticking with Pie earlier this year, but to say we haven't had any position players from our system get a chance this year is wrong.

 

And before you say Fontenot is not from our system - he was a throw-in in the Sammy deal and was a nothing prospect and our system developed him into legit major league material. Therefore I think he counts as a Cub prospect.

 

 

Theriot is the only full time starter of the 2. I am willing to bet a donut that the Cubs will bring in a veteran SS this offseason. Even after his great September last season the Cubs brought in DeRossa to be the primary 2nd baseman. Also if Izturis was anywhere above really bad he would still be getting as much time at SS as Theriot. So he doesnt really count to counter my point.

 

I dont think Fontenot will be anything but a part time player on the Cubs. He is already behind DeRossa when the Cubs get a full time RFer.

 

So a "decent shot" is to hand players a starting job without any type of competition?

 

Theriot has proven he's not a top flight starter. He's pretty good and can be a valuable contributor on a better offense, but if there is an upgrade out there he's not above replacing. The fact is, though, he was given the opportunity to beat out the veteran Izturis and was given the starting job over him. And of course if Izturis was a better player he'd get more playing time, that's generally what happens if a player is good.

 

DeRosa was brought in to start at second be an offensive upgrade. So far this year, he's been better than Theriot and one of our better offensive players. If an upgrade is available and it doesn't block one of your top, young stars (which Theriot isn't) it would be silly not to make the move.

Once DeRosa was brought in, Theriot was given the opportunity to beat out Izzy at short and did. I fail to see how he didn't get a "decent" shot.

 

As for Fontenot, I've seen many a respected poster on this board cite examples of why Fontenot is likely no better than a backup infielder anyway. The Cubs developed him into that and are now giving him the opportunity to be at least that. I'm not sure how much more Lou has to do to give Fontenot a "decent" shot at getting playing time when he's playing as much or more now than many on the board want.

 

Both are nice players to have developed through the system (though only for a few years on Fontenot), but neither are top-flight star material. I think both have gotten fair treatment this year given the circumstances.